NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cuomo would likely be doing better than Hochul.Say what you will about the guy but he understood how NY’s swing voters think, and he wouldn’t have been asleep while Republicans attacked him for months for being pro-crime. He may have even done the smart thing and repealed the horrendously unpopular bail reform and/or fired some of the most egregiously pro-crime DAs.

Imagine actually believing this

[Duke of York]

Cuomo would likely be doing better than Hochul. Say what you will about the guy but he understood how NY’s swing voters think, and he wouldn’t have been asleep while Republicans attacked him for months for being pro-crime. He may have even done the smart thing and repealed the horrendously unpopular bail reform and/or fired some of the most egregiously pro-crime DAs.

this is all beyond doubtful. Part of the problem with bail reform is the messaging surrounding it. The governor doesn't have the authority to repeal a law.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hochul should take a page from Keith Ellison's 2018 playbook and spend the next week just running nasty ads against Zeldin that don't even mention her. Just drive Zeldin's negatives into the stratosphere. It's a lot easier to make voters hate Zeldin than like her.

[Orwell]

Zeldin has a better shot at winning here than Hoffmeister does in Okie

[doopy pants]

Please Please Please change the Subject line to THE LEGEND OF ZELDIN

[Ferguson97]

Zeldin has a better shot at winning here than Hoffmeister does in Okie

Nah.

[Orwell]

Zeldin has a better shot at winning here than Hoffmeister does in Okie

Nah.

The only good poll in Okie has Stitt +9, but we have multiple polls where Zeldin is closer.

[Real Texan Politics]

I've said it on one thread and I'll say it again here:

This is Hochul's race to lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Zeldin has a better shot at winning here than Hoffmeister does in Okie

In Ascend Action Hofmeister is ahead by 48/45

Nah.

The only good poll in Okie has Stitt +9, but we have multiple polls where Zeldin is closer.

[Real Texan Politics]

Just for laughs, I decided to check out the 2014 Maryland predictions here, and wow...

A whopping two people had Larry Hogan winning, look what happened.

Not to mention, most people had Maryland as strong D in their confidence rating. Once again, look what happened.

For our Atlas vets here, what was the reaction like on here when Hogan won?

[Duke of York]

Just for laughs, I decided to check out the 2014 Maryland predictions here, and wow...

A whopping two people had Larry Hogan winning, look what happened.

Not to mention, most people had Maryland as strong D in their confidence rating. Once again, look what happened.

For our Atlas vets here, what was the reaction like on here when Hogan won?

You think Zeldin will win?

[Real Texan Politics]

Just for laughs, I decided to check out the 2014 Maryland predictions here, and wow...

A whopping two people had Larry Hogan winning, look what happened.

Not to mention, most people had Maryland as strong D in their confidence rating. Once again, look what happened.

For our Atlas vets here, what was the reaction like on here when Hogan won?

You think Zeldin will win?

I'll be bold and put this race as tossup/lean D. I think Hochul will pull it off in the end as of now, but I think there's a serious shot of a massive upset.

Sure Zeldin may not win by as much as Hogan did in 2014 (if Zeldin even wins at all), but the possibility is severely underrated in my opinion. Hell, look at New Jersey last year. I don't think that many people here (or at least the vocal ones) expected it to be as close as it was.

[Roll Roons]

Just for laughs, I decided to check out the 2014 Maryland predictions here, and wow...

A whopping two people had Larry Hogan winning, look what happened.

Not to mention, most people had Maryland as strong D in their confidence rating. Once again, look what happened.

For our Atlas vets here, what was the reaction like on here when Hogan won?

You think Zeldin will win?

I'll be bold and put this race as tossup/lean D. I think Hochul will pull it off in the end as of now, but I think there's a serious shot of a massive upset.

Sure Zeldin may not win by as much as Hogan did in 2014 (if Zeldin even wins at all), but the possibility is severely underrated in my opinion. Hell, look at New Jersey last year. I don't think that many people here (or at least the vocal ones) expected it to be as close as it was.

I thought New Jersey would be a 6 or 7 point margin at best. Don't forget that Cook never moved it out of Safe D.

Honestly, the fact that Trafalgar and Emerson were the only pollsters to even get it in the ballpark are why I'm not writing either off.

[Duke of York]

Just for laughs, I decided to check out the 2014 Maryland predictions here, and wow...

A whopping two people had Larry Hogan winning, look what happened.

Not to mention, most people had Maryland as strong D in their confidence rating. Once again, look what happened.

For our Atlas vets here, what was the reaction like on here when Hogan won?

You think Zeldin will win?

I'll be bold and put this race as tossup/lean D. I think Hochul will pull it off in the end as of now, but I think there's a serious shot of a massive upset.

Sure Zeldin may not win by as much as Hogan did in 2014 (if Zeldin even wins at all), but the possibility is severely underrated in my opinion. Hell, look at New Jersey last year. I don't think that many people here (or at least the vocal ones) expected it to be as close as it was.

I’m going to go ahead and predict the upset mainly due to lies about cash bail.

[Real Texan Politics]

Interesting...
https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1587284707154206720?s=20&t=Tf2DKEKznRKD...

[kwabbit]

Interesting...
https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1587284707154206720?s=20&t=Tf2DKEKznRKD...

Someone with Doug Mastriano as their pfp is not a source of objective analysis.

[EastwoodS]

Dims:

We’re  unironically flipping Oklahoma . Who cares how red the state is, it's happening
Also dims:

Hochul will win by double digits. Anything else is pure unadulterated cope. Ny is too blue.

[warandwar]

Hochul should take a page from Keith Ellison's 2018 playbook and spend the next week just running nasty ads against Zeldin that don't even mention her. Just drive Zeldin's negatives into the stratosphere. It's a lot easier to make voters hate Zeldin than like her.

This has been her entire campaign. Her issue is that NY voters don't need reasons to hate Republicans, they need reasons to like Hochul.

Might add that I suspect Cuomo's network downstate is holding back as revenge here. They have a lot to gain from a Hochul loss.

[warandwar]

This could be a big deal

https://mobile.twitter.com/yesh222/status/1586918322393808896

I have doubts. The Orthodox Jews vote almost entirely Republican anyway.

This is not true - they voted as a bloc for Cuomo and Mondaire Jones. They could very well sway the vote for Lawler in Rockland County.
YWN, fwiw, is not the whole community - it is the modox/yeshivish community. Chabad sectors have endorsed Zeldin as well (and Dem Assemblyman Brian Cunningham, lol). AFAIK Satmars, Bobovs, etc have yet to endorse....

[Duke of York]

Hochul should take a page from Keith Ellison's 2018 playbook and spend the next week just running nasty ads against Zeldin that don't even mention her. Just drive Zeldin's negatives into the stratosphere. It's a lot easier to make voters hate Zeldin than like her.

This has been her entire campaign. Her issue is that NY voters don't need reasons to hate Republicans, they need reasons to like Hochul.

Might add that I suspect Cuomo's network downstate is holding back as revenge here. They have a lot to gain from a Hochul loss.

If that’s the case Cuomo is truly an awful person.

[warandwar]

Hochul should take a page from Keith Ellison's 2018 playbook and spend the next week just running nasty ads against Zeldin that don't even mention her. Just drive Zeldin's negatives into the stratosphere. It's a lot easier to make voters hate Zeldin than like her.

This has been her entire campaign. Her issue is that NY voters don't need reasons to hate Republicans, they need reasons to like Hochul.

Might add that I suspect Cuomo's network downstate is holding back as revenge here. They have a lot to gain from a Hochul loss.

If that’s the case Cuomo is truly an awful person.

Took you this long to realize?
Yeah he is a total piece of sh**t - bully, venal, etc, etc.

[Duke of York]

Hochul should take a page from Keith Ellison's 2018 playbook and spend the next week just running nasty ads against Zeldin that don't even mention her. Just drive Zeldin's negatives into the stratosphere. It's a lot easier to make voters hate Zeldin than like her.

This has been her entire campaign. Her issue is that NY voters don't need reasons to hate Republicans, they need reasons to like Hochul.

Might add that I suspect Cuomo's network downstate is holding back as revenge here. They have a lot to gain from a Hochul loss.

If that’s the case Cuomo is truly an awful person.

Took you this long to realize?
Yeah he is a total piece of sh**t - bully, venal, etc, etc.

I think Zeldin is going to pull an upset knowing what you said.

[warandwar]

Hochul should take a page from Keith Ellison's 2018 playbook and spend the next week just running nasty ads against Zeldin that don't even mention her. Just drive Zeldin's negatives into the stratosphere. It's a lot easier to make voters hate Zeldin than like her.

This has been her entire campaign. Her issue is that NY voters don't need reasons to hate Republicans, they need reasons to like Hochul.

Might add that I suspect Cuomo's network downstate is holding back as revenge here. They have a lot to gain from a Hochul loss.

If that’s the case Cuomo is truly an awful person.

Took you this long to realize?
Yeah he is a total piece of sh**t - bully, venal, etc, etc.

I think Zeldin is going to pull an upset knowing what you said.

Personally, I doubt it. But it will be close

[Duke of York]

Hochul should take a page from Keith Ellison's 2018 playbook and spend the next week just running nasty ads against Zeldin that don't even mention her. Just drive Zeldin's negatives into the stratosphere. It's a lot easier to make voters hate Zeldin than like her.

This has been her entire campaign. Her issue is that NY voters don't need reasons to hate Republicans, they need reasons to like Hochul.

Might add that I suspect Cuomo's network downstate is holding back as revenge here. They have a lot to gain from a Hochul loss.

If that’s the case Cuomo is truly an awful person.

Took you this long to realize?
Yeah he is a total piece of sh**t - bully, venal, etc, etc.

I think Zeldin is going to pull an upset knowing what you said.

Personally, I doubt it. But it will be close

How close?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hochul's going to win, but if it's in single digits that's still embarrassing. And I think embarrassing her is enough for Cuomo.