NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

WHAT
https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1585050957703831552?s=20&t=Rtbh94lCO...

I want to just crawl under a rock. We are so doomed politically it's not even funny

That's not what she said.

And you think that matters? It will be in every republican ad, even if it is out of context.

You can't run an ad with something she didn't say. That quote isn't out of context, it's fabricated.

Then where did it come from? Was it a spin or exaggeration on something she did say? I'm just confused

What she actually said was "Anyone who commits a crime under our laws...has consequences...I don't know why that's so important to you"

[Roll Roons]

Just for fun, I kind of wonder how Cuomo would be faring if he'd stuck it out, assuming he didn't lose a primary. I think he may well have been on track to face the same fate as dear old dad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just for fun, I kind of wonder how Cuomo would be faring if he'd stuck it out, assuming he didn't lose a primary. I think he may well have been on track to face the same fate as dear old dad.

In this scenario, are we assuming the scandal still got serious coverage or not?

If not, he'd easily win re-election and would face non-serious opposition.

On the flip side, if he still got all the bad press, he would face a serious challenger but they would over-nationalize the race to the point where it hurts Rs given NY's partisanship.

Zeldin's in sort of that sweet spot where he is a serious challenger but hasn't over-nationalized the race. I doubt he beats Hochul, but I think that's the main reason it's so close right now according to polls.

[Calthrina950]

Just for fun, I kind of wonder how Cuomo would be faring if he'd stuck it out, assuming he didn't lose a primary. I think he may well have been on track to face the same fate as dear old dad.

In this scenario, are we assuming the scandal still got serious coverage or not?

If not, he'd easily win re-election and would face non-serious opposition.

On the flip side, if he still got all the bad press, he would face a serious challenger but they would over-nationalize the race to the point where it hurts Rs given NY's partisanship.

Zeldin's in sort of that sweet spot where he is a serious challenger but hasn't over-nationalized the race. I doubt he beats Hochul, but I think that's the main reason it's so close right now according to polls.

There seems to be a group of voters in New York (exemplified by some of the D-NY avatars on this forum), who don't like Hochul and much of what she has done, but are "sure as hell" not voting Republican, and consider Zeldin to be worse. That will probably be the group that reelects her.

[2016]

The Zeldin/DeSantis Rally in Hauppauge, New York
https://twitter.com/baseballcrank/status/1586492676089597952

Ladies & Gentleman, People of Long Island, New York. You have the future Republican Presidential Nominee in front of your very own eyes, RONALD DION DESANTIS and hopefully the future Republican Governor of New York as well.

Donald Trump will be CRUSHED, absolutely SMOKED in 2024 by DeSantis.

[Horus]

The Zeldin/DeSantis Rally in Hauppauge, New York
https://twitter.com/baseballcrank/status/1586492676089597952

Ladies & Gentleman, People of Long Island, New York. You have the future Republican Presidential Nominee in front of your very own eyes, RONALD DION DESANTIS and hopefully the future Republican Governor of New York as well.

Donald Trump will be CRUSHED, absolutely SMOKED in 2024 by DeSantis.

Lol, the only way Trump loses the 2024 primary is if he doesn't run at all.

[NewYorkExpress]

Just for fun, I kind of wonder how Cuomo would be faring if he'd stuck it out, assuming he didn't lose a primary. I think he may well have been on track to face the same fate as dear old dad.

Cuomo might well have lost even without the sex scandal, given the political climate this year.

Zeldin was the strongest GOP opposition he'd faced, ever.

[2016]

The Zeldin/DeSantis Rally in Hauppauge, New York
https://twitter.com/baseballcrank/status/1586492676089597952

Ladies & Gentleman, People of Long Island, New York. You have the future Republican Presidential Nominee in front of your very own eyes, RONALD DION DESANTIS and hopefully the future Republican Governor of New York as well.

Donald Trump will be CRUSHED, absolutely SMOKED in 2024 by DeSantis.

Lol, the only way Trump loses the 2024 primary is if he doesn't run at all.

Trump won't be the Nominee. Republican Voters ain't going to nominate HIM 3 Times in a row.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Zeldin/DeSantis Rally in Hauppauge, New York
https://twitter.com/baseballcrank/status/1586492676089597952

Ladies & Gentleman, People of Long Island, New York. You have the future Republican Presidential Nominee in front of your very own eyes, RONALD DION DESANTIS and hopefully the future Republican Governor of New York as well.

Donald Trump will be CRUSHED, absolutely SMOKED in 2024 by DeSantis.

Lol, the only way Trump loses the 2024 primary is if he doesn't run at all.

Trump won't be the Nominee. Republican Voters ain't going to nominate HIM 3 Times in a row.

It doesn't matter we have the blue wall Evers, Baldwin STABENOW, Whitmer, Shapiro and Bob Casey Jr are solid blue wall states and Kaine is beating Youngkin in VA and Jack Rosen is stronger than CCM

[Ferguson97]

The Zeldin/DeSantis Rally in Hauppauge, New York
https://twitter.com/baseballcrank/status/1586492676089597952

Ladies & Gentleman, People of Long Island, New York. You have the future Republican Presidential Nominee in front of your very own eyes, RONALD DION DESANTIS and hopefully the future Republican Governor of New York as well.

Donald Trump will be CRUSHED, absolutely SMOKED in 2024 by DeSantis.

Lol, the only way Trump loses the 2024 primary is if he doesn't run at all.

Trump won't be the Nominee. Republican Voters ain't going to nominate HIM 3 Times in a row.

Thank you for giving us the confirmation that your political instincts are absolutely terrible.

Trump WILL be the nominee if he runs.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Even after Cuomo resigned, I don't think anyone thought Texas, Florida, and Georgia would be less competitive than New York of all places. New York! (Also Oklahoma)

Will Zeldin win? Probably not, but the fact that we are having this debate about NY 9 days before the election is wild.

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1586722282701045761

[warandwar]

Worth noting the PBA thinks Hochul will win, that's why they're endorsing Dems like Anna Kaplan and Stacey Pheffer-Amato. Whinging going on now isn't about November, it's about January. This is about ginning up support for the "three men in the room" to shift right, not about changing any of those men. Justifying it through many articles citing Zeldin's effectiveness...
It is New York, no one is honest and the result is predetermined.

[Calthrina950]

Even after Cuomo resigned, I don't think anyone thought Texas, Florida, and Georgia would be less competitive than New York of all places. New York! (Also Oklahoma)

Will Zeldin win? Probably not, but the fact that we are having this debate about NY 9 days before the election is wild.

It is, but Hochul will win because of Democratic voters who don't think highly of her and are frustrated by the situation in New York, but will never vote for a Republican and would rather have her in there instead.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1586722282701045761

Republicans have been very good at getting the crime narrative on their side. It feels simillar to when Rs in Minnesota or Iowa start campaigning on illegal immigration across the southern border, even though those states have nothing to do with the southern border.

If Dems have a bad night in 2022, I think many will compare this R crime narrative to defund the police and basically saying in hindsights Dems never pushed back as they should've and just kinda let Rs run with the narrative.

[Orwell]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TPqLwaIlsM

Just saw that Biden made an appearance in New York a couple days ago, and told a bald-faced lie about Gas prices. But hey, He was only off by at least $2.58.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1586722282701045761

Republicans have been very good at getting the crime narrative on their side. It feels simillar to when Rs in Minnesota or Iowa start campaigning on illegal immigration across the southern border, even though those states have nothing to do with the southern border.

If Dems have a bad night in 2022, I think many will compare this R crime narrative to defund the police and basically saying in hindsights Dems never pushed back as they should've and just kinda let Rs run with the narrative.

Hochul has been pushing back. If she loses I would be beyond shocked.

[Matty]

This could be a big deal

https://mobile.twitter.com/yesh222/status/1586918322393808896

[Duke of York]

This could be a big deal

https://mobile.twitter.com/yesh222/status/1586918322393808896

I have doubts. The Orthodox Jews vote almost entirely Republican anyway.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Republicans have been very good at getting the crime narrative on their side. It feels simillar to when Rs in Minnesota or Iowa start campaigning on illegal immigration across the southern border, even though those states have nothing to do with the southern border.

In 2013, I recall a poll being done in every swing state and the only one that opposed "a path" by a plurality was Iowa. Considering how it has voted in every election since, I think that poll was accurate to say the least.

The impacts of illegal immigration and immigration in general do not stop with the border. Its like Dr. Oz said, "PA is effectively a border state". Of course Democrats have had their heads in the sand on this issue for over a decade now and completely fail to understand its importance, its electoral impact and the very real consequences that massive disruption in local labor markets have.

Sure we face shortages now, but that is after decades of many low skilled labor markets being depressed for 20 years, saturated with job seekers and against that backdrop the constant drumbeat of how immigration is a positive and anyone who disagrees is just a racist, comes across as out of touch. What the farm crisis did for the Democrats in the 1980s, immigration politics did for Republicans in the 2010s.

[Ferguson97]

This could be a big deal

https://mobile.twitter.com/yesh222/status/1586918322393808896

Wow, now the Orthodox community is going do vote R+90 instead of R+87

[NYDem]

I've got to say that I'm surprised by how poorly this race has gone so far for Hochul. If current polling is at all accurate she isn't going to improve over Cuomo at all Upstate and is going to bleed support in the city. I still would be surprised if she actually loses, but I'm worried about this race dragging down the rest of the ticket now.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/brigidbergin/status/1587172770772910082?s=20&t=CUXHNiULl...

Doesn't indicate a tied race to me but i will withhold making any predictions.

[kwabbit]

This could be a big deal

https://mobile.twitter.com/yesh222/status/1586918322393808896

Wow, now the Orthodox community is going do vote R+90 instead of R+87

The Orthodox community has typically supported the Democrats down ballot. This is quite significant for Lawler at least. Zeldin needed them to get close; it would've been game over if he hadn't.

In general, it's not helpful for the Democratic Party if a group whose population doubles every 15 years is becoming increasingly politically organized against you. Especially in NY 17/18, which are quite demographically stagnant except for the Orthodox.

[Lief 🗽]

Cuomo would likely be doing better than Hochul. Say what you will about the guy but he understood how NY’s swing voters think, and he wouldn’t have been asleep while Republicans attacked him for months for being pro-crime. He may have even done the smart thing and repealed the horrendously unpopular bail reform and/or fired some of the most egregiously pro-crime DAs.