Clinton +10 state with best possibility of going Trump?
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Poll
Question: which double-digit Clinton state from 2016 do you think has the best chance of going Trump or be a close race?
#1
Oregon		  
#2
Washington		  
#3
Illinois		  
#4
Connecticut		  
#5
Rhode Island		  
#6
New Jersey		  
#7
Delaware		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 94

Author Topic: Clinton +10 state with best possibility of going Trump?  (Read 1513 times)
538Electoral
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« on: May 27, 2019, 11:07:14 AM »
I think there are 7 Clinton+10 states from 2016 that have potential to be an under 10 point race. Which one do you think is most likely?
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Thunder98
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2019, 11:10:19 AM »
Rhode Island obviously
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2019, 11:48:20 AM »
I guess Rhode Island, but realistically NOTA.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2019, 01:11:06 PM »
0 will, the only one in play would be IL, but the Rauner effect has spoiled any chances, Trump has in the state and in IL-14, with GOP against Underwood.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2019, 01:13:20 PM »
I don't buy the hype behind Rhode Island possibly going Republican, so I'll go with Oregon. it's extremely unlikely that any of these will flip - but Oregon is the most likely/least unlikely.
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Politician
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« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2019, 01:16:53 PM »
Delaware. None will flip though

What's with this stupid notion that Rhode Island is competitive? It re-elected an unpopular Democratic governor by Clinton's margin, it's not flipping in 2020 and the Democrat will likely expand the margin significantly.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2019, 01:34:48 PM »
Quote from: Politician on May 27, 2019, 01:16:53 PM
Delaware. None will flip though

What's with this stupid notion that Rhode Island is competitive? It re-elected an unpopular Democratic governor by Clinton's margin, it's not flipping in 2020 and the Democrat will likely expand the margin significantly.

If it’s Biden, Delaware goes 60%+ Dem.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2019, 01:57:36 PM »
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2019, 03:58:56 PM »
Quote from: Politician on May 27, 2019, 01:16:53 PM
Delaware. None will flip though

What's with this stupid notion that Rhode Island is competitive? It re-elected an unpopular Democratic governor by Clinton's margin, it's not flipping in 2020 and the Democrat will likely expand the margin significantly.

Delaware is less likely than Oregon to flip, easily.

It has far more black voters than Oregon, which provides a much sturdier base for the Democratic nominee.

Plus, if Biden is the nominee then obviously Delaware would be one of the very last states to flip R in a massive GOP landslide.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2019, 04:08:34 PM »
1. Oregon
2. Rhode Island
3. Delaware
4. New Jersey
5. Washington
6. Connecticut
7. Illinois
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2019, 07:31:43 PM »
Delaware...except if Biden is the Democratic nominee. Otherwise I guess it would be Oregon. Though I'm still not 100% sure about that.
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SN2903
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« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2019, 08:14:06 PM »
RI or Jersey
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2019, 09:37:13 PM »
Obviously Delaware.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2019, 09:41:01 PM »
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2019, 11:19:43 PM »

New Jersey is about as likely to vote Republican as Mississippi is to vote Democratic.
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2019, 11:26:14 PM »
None of these have any realistic chance of going to Trump

I could see Oregon barely going Republican in the future (like the 2030s or 2040s) but by then Republicans will probably be more socially liberal and pro-cannabis because they'll have to be to survive politically - demographically the number of old-style social conservatives will have dropped significantly and what is considered somewhat liberal now will be mainstream later. They'll still be for tax cuts and trickle down nonsense but they'll wrap it in a more appealing, less evangelical, less Trumpist packaging.
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andjey
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« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2019, 12:50:19 AM »
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2019, 08:04:48 AM »
How does Trump gain 5% or more on the 2016 election (barring massive cheating)?

Will Phoenix have a blizzard on the Fourth of July?
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2019, 08:39:39 AM »
Rhode Island, Connecticut would be a close second.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2019, 09:14:47 AM »

Menendez/Trump Voter
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PaperKooper
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« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2019, 02:05:40 PM »
If Biden isn't the nominee, Delaware.  If he is, then Rhode Island or maaybe Oregon. 
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PaperKooper
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« Reply #21 on: May 28, 2019, 02:10:06 PM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on May 28, 2019, 08:04:48 AM
How does Trump gain 5% or more on the 2016 election (barring massive cheating)?

Will Phoenix have a blizzard on the Fourth of July?

There's plenty of (at least somewhat) plausible paths.  If the Democratic nominee advocates for slavery reparations.  If there's a major Green Left/Moderate Centrist third party candidate in opposition to the Democratic nominee.  If there's a significant military victory or major threat of terrorism. 
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2019, 02:11:37 PM »
Oregon even if it’s still safe D
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Grassroots
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« Reply #23 on: May 28, 2019, 02:15:03 PM »
"Muh Rhode Island trend!"

Illinois easily. Dems are maxed out in the suburbs and in the city. With the more economically left direction the republican party is going, the state is going to start trending R during and after 2020.
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Sestak
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« Reply #24 on: May 28, 2019, 02:20:53 PM »
Quote from: Grassr00ts on May 28, 2019, 02:15:03 PM
"Muh Rhode Island trend!"

Illinois easily. Dems are maxed out in the suburbs and in the city. With the more economically left direction the republican party is going, the state is going to start trending R during and after 2020.

Where do I even start with this
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