Conservative leadership election

[Velasco]

So sad about Rory

 

I'm glad Stewart was voted out - he's a good guy but I don't think he's right for the job at the moment.

This is very cruel and insensible!

More seriously, are you implying Boris Johnson and the others fit for the job, at this moment or at any time? I would consider someone with experience in the MI6...

[LabourJersey]

I'm guessing the debates hurt Stewart?

I saw some segments and it seemed like Stewart was extremely uncomfortable, more so than maybe any politician I've seen in a debate format.

[Pericles]

I'm guessing the debates hurt Stewart?

I saw some segments and it seemed like Stewart was extremely uncomfortable, more so than maybe any politician I've seen in a debate format.

I think the bigger factor was that Johnson's campaign probably had people vote Stewart tactically in order to force Raab out of the race, and then took back the tactical votes in the third ballot. Raab after all was the only other hard Brexiter in the race. Given that it is a secret ballot, it is very difficult to know what shenanigans are going on behind the scenes.

[beesley]

So sad about Rory

 

I'm glad Stewart was voted out - he's a good guy but I don't think he's right for the job at the moment.

This is very cruel and insensible!

More seriously, are you implying Boris Johnson and the others fit for the job, at this moment or at any time? I would consider someone with experience in the MI6...

Cruel? Give over. I have a higher opinion of Rory than most other Tory supporters. Rory Stewart's Brexit plan was the least feasible given the situation in Parliament, and he's had the least experience in government compared to the remaining four. None of them are particularly perfect but I would feel more comfortable being led by them, having lived in the UK for sometime now, I've formed my own opinions on them. I'd certainly prefer one of them to a Corbyn government with a lot of Lib Dems and Brexit MPs, which is not impossible.

[Velasco]

So sad about Rory

 

I'm glad Stewart was voted out - he's a good guy but I don't think he's right for the job at the moment.

This is very cruel and insensible!

More seriously (...)

Cruel? Give over (...)

I was kidding. I feel sad about Rory because his elimination makes the race much less interesting

[Epaminondas]

Does no one at the Tory party understand all this could have been done in one day, without shenanigans, with ranked ballot voting? Rank candidates in order. Machine tells you who wins while maximising voter satisfaction.
They're wasting so much time for nothing with this baby version of it.

Or do they fear looking like hypocrites for bedeviling this superior voting method at the 2011 referendum?

Jim Messina certainly agrees that the Tories and the Democrats are similar.

You may be joking, but that point stands. He advised the party closest to his heart.
Barring certain social views, the Democratic party is closer to the Tories than to Labour. This is a fairly obvious observation, not a criticism. The US-UK political spectra barely overlap.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not *all* the Democratic party, just its "establishment" wing.

[parochial boy]

I'm not really seeing the Democrats pushing through something like Brexit tbh. Or the massive spending and tax cuts and privatisations of the Cameron era.

It's a nice myth that Europeans, especially those of us on the left, like to tell ourselves that our right isn't as right wing as the American right. But it isn't really true, especially in the UK right now.

[Conservatopia]

As someone very closely involved in the Conservative Party I think it is fair to say that at least the membership (and a good deal of the MPs) are closer to the GOP than the Dems.  The members (certainly those I have met) are older, white and middle class and broadly support tax cuts, austerity and traditional values.  For what it's worth most of those I have met support Donald Trump.  The MPs are not so rightwing perhaps but they are still well to the right of centre (although not always publicly...)

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1141678655778828290

[CumbrianLefty]

Gove takes second place, hmmm.

[ilikeverin]

Does no one at the Tory party understand all this could have been done in one day, without shenanigans, with ranked ballot voting? Rank candidates in order. Machine tells you who wins while maximising voter satisfaction.
They're wasting so much time for nothing with this baby version of it.

Well, from the US perspective this seems very quick

That said, I think Tories would presumably say that they want the inter-ballot jockeying, that they'd like to see how candidates respond to changes in the dynamics and that they are open to the idea of lesser-ranked candidates endorsing better-ranked ones. I'm not saying this is correct, but I think this would be the argument.

[Oryxslayer]

Does no one at the Tory party understand all this could have been done in one day, without shenanigans, with ranked ballot voting? Rank candidates in order. Machine tells you who wins while maximising voter satisfaction.
They're wasting so much time for nothing with this baby version of it.

Well, from the US perspective this seems very quick

That said, I think Tories would presumably say that they want the inter-ballot jockeying, that they'd like to see how candidates respond to changes in the dynamics and that they are open to the idea of lesser-ranked candidates endorsing better-ranked ones. I'm not saying this is correct, but I think this would be the argument.

There's also time for someone to screw up when the spotlight decides to shine upon their candidacy. One could argue that's what happened to Stewart, and everyone is hoping something like this happens to Johnson, since it's the only way he doesn't become PM.

[Hnv1]

Gove takes second place, hmmm.

Does that mean he is likely to pass Hunt on the last vote?

That depends on who Boris wants to run against him

[Angel of Death]

Consensus seems to be that Hunt would be an easier opponent for Johnson than Gove, because the latter had been a consistent Leaver from the start.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

So he was kind of like the British John Kasich?

The analogies only go so far.
Every last Republican would be considered a frothing madman in the UK.

The Tories are right of center and closer to the Dem party than Labour. GOP is Brexit party, but that doesn't make for convenient comparisons.

How about the Republicans being like the DUP?

[YL]

Final ballot

Johnson 160 (+3)
Hunt 77 (+18)
Gove 75 (+14)

Johnson and Hunt through to the members' ballot

One spoiled ballot.

(The Guardian says Johnson 162, but that gives the wrong number of Tory MPs.)

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson will have enjoyed arranging that result, no question

[YL]

So he was kind of like the British John Kasich?

The analogies only go so far.
Every last Republican would be considered a frothing madman in the UK.

The Tories are right of center and closer to the Dem party than Labour. GOP is Brexit party, but that doesn't make for convenient comparisons.

How about the Republicans being like the DUP?

Well, they have certain tendencies which you find in the Republicans but not so much in other UK parties, mainly those associated with the Christian Right, but overall Northern Ireland politics is sufficiently weird that comparisons don't work that well.

IMO most British Conservatives would be Republicans if they'd launched a US political career, and most US Democrats would either be Labour or Lib Dem in the UK, and would adjust their positions on issues where the countries are particularly different politically (guns, healthcare, Christian Right stuff).  I'm sure there are exceptions but in general I think Democrats aren't motivated by the same sorts of things as Tories and vice versa, except of course where they're mainly motivated by whatever suits their own careers best.

[brucejoel99]

One spoiled ballot.

Bet it's Stewart, Clarke, or May.

[DaWN]

Well there goes the last shred of hope that we might avoid the embarrassing mess as PM.

[CumbrianLefty]

One spoiled ballot.

Bet it's Stewart, Clarke, or May.

Stewart apparently denied spoiling his in today's earlier ballot.

[YL]

One spoiled ballot.

Bet it's Stewart, Clarke, or May.

I think May will have voted for Hunt.

Dominic Grieve and Phillip Lee are also candidates.  Perhaps also Guto Bebb, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, or maybe even Jo Johnson

[beesley]

Gove backer Mel Stride saying he doesn't believe Team Boris engineered things.

So he was kind of like the British John Kasich?

The analogies only go so far.
Every last Republican would be considered a frothing madman in the UK.

The Tories are right of center and closer to the Dem party than Labour. GOP is Brexit party, but that doesn't make for convenient comparisons.

How about the Republicans being like the DUP?

Well, they have certain tendencies which you find in the Republicans but not so much in other UK parties, mainly those associated with the Christian Right, but overall Northern Ireland politics is sufficiently weird that comparisons don't work that well.

IMO most British Conservatives would be Republicans if they'd launched a US political career, and most US Democrats would either be Labour or Lib Dem in the UK, and would adjust their positions on issues where the countries are particularly different politically (guns, healthcare, Christian Right stuff).  I'm sure there are exceptions but in general I think Democrats aren't motivated by the same sorts of things as Tories and vice versa, except of course where they're mainly motivated by whatever suits their own careers best.

I agree with you. I'd argue it would be far easier for a British politician to gain mild success in America than vice versa. The sort of US politicians who could climb their way the British ladder are the low-key but relatively high-quality moderates - .e.g. Greg Walden for the Republicans, and quite a few Democrats - someone like Denny Heck or Mike Quigley would fit in well as an average Labour MP. Things like gun control in the US are purely circumstantial and only in the case of someone like Justin Amash (who would have no hope here) could you argue for gun rights in the UK to the extent they would in the US, so I'd ignore them.

[Epaminondas]

How about the Republicans being like the DUP?

Well, they have certain tendencies which you find in the Republicans but not so much in other UK parties, mainly those associated with the Christian Right, but overall Northern Ireland politics is sufficiently weird that comparisons don't work that well.

As far as religion and gun ownership goes, the similarities are striking. The DUP's radical bigoted evangelicalism would have its place in Alabama today, excoriating Catholics instead of agnostics. Ian Paisley remarked after the Pope's death that "this Romish man of sin is now in Hell", and described Catholics as those who “breed like rabbits and multiply like vermin”.

But the DUP are the definition of a single-issue party:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ME45v08fQ0&pbjreload=10

And in that sense it doesn't quite fit with the Republicans, who have multiple wings as well as the frothing Religious: the progressives (Baker, Scott, Sununu, Hogan...), the reasonable (people like Amash, Collins, the former Walter Jones...), the libertarians (Rand), and the authoritarians (Trump' manservants)

IMO most British Conservatives would be Republicans if they'd launched a US political career, and most US Democrats would either be Labour or Lib Dem in the UK.  I'm sure there are exceptions but in general I think Democrats aren't motivated by the same sorts of things as Tories and vice versa, except of course where they're mainly motivated by whatever suits their own careers best.

I agree with you. I'd argue it would be far easier for a British politician to gain mild success in America than vice versa. The sort of US politicians who could climb their way the British ladder are the low-key but relatively high-quality moderates - .e.g. Greg Walden for the Republicans, and quite a few Democrats - someone like Denny Heck or Mike Quigley would fit in well as an average Labour MP.

I vehemently agree. That a Labourite MP would join the Democratic party makes no doubt, but it doesn't follow that a Democrat would join the Labour party.

In fact, as far as taxes, business and interventionism goes, I think the vast majority of the house Dems would part ways with Corbyn and feel closer to a Cameron or a May.

Does no one at the Tory party understand all this could have been done in one day, without shenanigans, with ranked ballot voting? Rank candidates in order. Machine tells you who wins while maximising voter satisfaction.
They're wasting so much time for nothing with this baby version of it.

That said, I think Tories would presumably say that they want the inter-ballot jockeying, that they'd like to see how candidates respond to changes in the dynamics and that they are open to the idea of lesser-ranked candidates endorsing better-ranked ones. I'm not saying this is correct, but I think this would be the argument.

But that would be balderdash. The only case RBV doesn't cover is if MPs actually shift their vote on who is to become prime minister in a month. That some could change their mind on such a momentous matter in a few hours reveals a appalling lack of conviction.
They're not all weathervanes, are they?