Conservative leadership election

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I T ' S  H A P P E N I N G

May is stepping down 6th June, and the conservative party will have to elect a new leader. The man to beat, as we all know, is former Mayor of London/Foreign Secretary Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson. Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab (the thinking man's Brexiteer) is also in the running, as is Esther McVey, Andrea Leadsom and Liz Truss. It goes without saying that the old guard like Amber Rudd will not do very well, but they may make an appearance for the hell of it.

(Hillariously, Wikipedia claims Nicholas Soames, a walking MeToo timebomb who is hated by the Brexiters and modernisers alike, is interested in running)

[Lord Halifax]

(Hillariously, Wikipedia claims Nicholas Soames, a walking MeToo timebomb

What did he do?

[parochial boy]

Has anyone ever noticed that Sajid Javid is basically a dead ringer for the Tin Man from the Wizard of Oz?

Something, something about not having a brain. Or was it a heart?

[YL]

Oh fun...

A reminder of the system: MPs have a series of votes, in each of which the bottom candidate is eliminated.  (Well, unless there's a tie for last place; in that case precedent suggests they do it again with no eliminations and hope that the candidates get different numbers of votes.)  Once there are only two names left, those names are meant to go to the members.  (Well, unless one of the two is Andrea Leadsom and pulls out, or something like that.)

[Gary J]

I saw Nicholas Soames on Newsnight, a week or so ago. He made some comments about possibly being a leadership candidate. How serious Soames was being is anyones guess. It is not unheard of for random backbenchers to try their luck, but they have not got many votes in past Tory leadership elections.

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(Hillariously, Wikipedia claims Nicholas Soames, a walking MeToo timebomb

What did he do?

He is known to be a bit "old-fashioned" in his behaviour around female colleagues (his wikipedia page touches on it) and he is frequently named in Westminster gossip rags as being a sex pest.

[cp]

I think there will be quite a large number of 'also rans' like Soames in this race, rather like the GOP in 2016 and the Dems in 2020, most of whom will drop out after the first ballot.

Since no one has done it in this thread yet, I'll repeat the well-worn 'analysis' that the putative leader in Tory leadership races rarely ends up winning.

The timetable published by the 1922 committee is roughly this:

June 10th: Leadership race begins
June 20th-30th: Beginning of successive rounds of voting by Tory MPs, with lowest scoring contender being knocked off.
July 1-20: Final two candidates canvas Tory members (approx 125K of them, extraordinarily unrepresentative of the country, who must have joined the party >3 months earlier)

Final results will be released prior to the parliamentary summer recess (around July 21st).

[beesley]

Useful reference point ahead of MP balloting:

http://order-order.com/backers

To be on the ballot a leadership candidate needs a proposer and seconder.

Of course, although it looks like Raab vs Johnson here, support from Hunt, Javid, Hancock and Gove could all coalesce behind which of them is most successful.

[Serenity Now]

I saw Nicholas Soames on Newsnight, a week or so ago. He made some comments about possibly being a leadership candidate. How serious Soames was being is anyones guess. It is not unheard of for random backbenchers to try their luck, but they have not got many votes in past Tory leadership elections.

This reminds me of a quote from an anonymous woman that sex with him was "like having a wardrobe fall on top of you with the key sticking out"

[rob in cal]

  Are there clear ideological differences among the leading candidates?  Who would be considered most on the right? Who the wettest? Who the most truly pro Brexit? etc.

[Michael19754]

I think we might be heading for a general election if a hard Brexiteer like Boris Johnson is elected leader. Think about it. Currently the Conservative Party and the DUP have a combined 323 seats, which means that they can barely outvote the opposition (counting out Sinn Fein). A few Tory MPs have signaled that they would resign the whip if the party embraced a hard Brexit, so in this scenario whoever becomes leader wouldn't have enough votes to become PM.

[Oryxslayer]

I think we might be heading for a general election if a hard Brexiteer like Boris Johnson is elected leader. Think about it. Currently the Conservative Party and the DUP have a combined 323 seats, which means that they can barely outvote the opposition (counting out Sinn Fein). A few Tory MPs have signaled that they would resign the whip if the party embraced a hard Brexit, so in this scenario whoever becomes leader wouldn't have enough votes to become PM.

TBH the hard brexit types probably want a new election. They expect to unite the Brexit vote and see the Remain vote divide between a insurgent Corbyn, a resurgent Lib-Dems, and of course the SNP. In their minds, this would give them a new majority to pursue their policies free of parliament.
It also allows the to nominate/drop/renominate a caucus more acceptable to the Hard Brexit ideology.

Of course, this is what May tried to do. Can't say if second try is the charm.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Two questions:

1. If May is out on June 6 and the leadership contest goes into mid-to-late July, who'll be PM in the early summer months? Will May stay on as a caretaker or will there be some sort of interim PM? If the latter, is there any precedent for that? I know there hasn't been in the past century or so, but perhaps something from the era of revolving-door Georgian/early Victorian PMs?
2. I suppose Rory Stewart has no chance? He's the only one of these people I sort of respect.

[beesley]

It rules that Philip Hammond isn't even mentioned as a possible candidate when the likes of Churchill's nonce grand-spawn is for whatever reason.

That's because he ruled it out.

[Michael19754]

Theresa May will resign as Conservative Party leader, not Prime Minister

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 Are there clear ideological differences among the leading candidates?  Who would be considered most on the right? Who the wettest? Who the most truly pro Brexit? etc.

Boris Johnson - has tied himself pretty securely to the Brexit mast, although it is well-known among all sides that this was a decision made because of political calculation rather than personal commitment. Has no strong ideological ties in general, although is more prone to state interventionism than the norm.

Dominic Raab - hard libertarian especially irt employment laws and civil liberties; dislikes feminism; pro-Brexit and supported Leave, resigning from his role as Brexit Sec when the WA wasn't to his liking (although he did still vote for the WA)

Steve Baker - most hardline mooted candidate, being an ERG whip and a member of the Cornerstone Group; doctrinaire opponent of EU and supporter of all kinds of oddball right-wing causes like global warming skepticism and returning to the hold standard

Graham Brady -  On the right of the party (resigned from Cameron's shadow cabinet because DCam ditched a pledge to reintroduce grammar schools); his role as 1922 Committee Chairman meant he was the "leader" of sorts of the backbench rebellion that ousted May, but also was the author of the only Brexit related deal to achieve a majority in the HoC. Not exactly going to win any awards for charisma. "Sensible Brexiteer", I guess.

Andrea Leadsom - social conservative, prominent Leave campaigner, notable for a pretty lousy 2016 leadership campaign. resigned at the 11th hour of the May premiership, presumably to maintain popularity with the base.

Michael Gove - another Leave person (betraying his close ally David Cameron), although like BoJo one could argue that this was more a tactical decision than one of commitment. One of the few cabinet ministers to stay fairly loyal to May (or at least, he has stayed out the constant undermining and sniping that many ministers seemed to enjoy) despite them loathing each other on a personal level. Has been an unusually "activist" Environmental Secretary, although his previous reign as a controversial Education Sec means he doesn't have a lot of crossover appeal for the left.

Jeremy Hunt - an empty suit who risen through the ranks without much distinction, including surviving scandal as Culture Secretary and an incredibly lethargic period as Heath Secretary. Supported Remain in 2016 and has largely toed the line since, although he was the first cabinet minister to tell May her new WA was dumb.

Rory Stewart - has a very interesting background (look at his Wiki page) and normally regarded as very clever (which can be a curse in disguise for politicians tbh), but his support for Remain and May's deal makes it very hard to imagine him winning.

Amber Rudd - has formed a new faction called the One Nation group (the old Disraeli catchphrase which is often wheeled out when Tory wets feel nostalgic for the pre-Thatcher days) she seems to be making an official stand for the Tory Left (although her fall in the Windfall saga means she is rather tainted for many). [even more ludicrously Justine Greening, a mega wet, has mused about running but that's incredibly unlikely]

Penny Mordaunt - A consistent Brexiteer but not an ideological hardliner. Has an unprivileged background, having to put herself through sixth form while acting as carer for her younger brother and has made a sop to the Tory backbench by protecting Northern Ireland veterans from prosecution. Once made a speech in the Commons about poultry welfare so she could say "cock" loads of times for a bet with her Navy mates. Did not resign during May government.

Liz Truss - another Brexiteer who did not resign during May government. After surviving an odd scandal that threatened to kill her career at birth (she had an affair with Mark Field MP) she became one of the leaders of the libertarian wing of the party, an instinct she carried into government where she often volunteered her own portfolios as potential sources of cuts. Truss has a strong presence on Instagram, and is possibly the only candidate with a page on Know Your Meme.

Esther McVey - hardline Brexiteer who resigned from government in opposition to WA, and possible source of a rebellion to BoJo's right with her new Blue Collar Conservative group. Former TV presenter, so she knows how to work a crowd.

Sajid Javid - once seen as a bit of a hardliner (member of the Cornerstone Group) but decidedly on the middle in the Brexit issue, and hasn't really shone in his Home Secretary brief.

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It rules that Philip Hammond isn't even mentioned as a possible candidate when the likes of Churchill's nonce grand-spawn is for whatever reason.

the Tory base hate Hammond even more than they hate May, given his status as official party pooper. Heck, back in the days that May thought she was going to get a 200 seat majority, it was well known she wanted to fire him and replace him with a go-lucky Chancellor who would pump up the markets with pro-Brexit mania.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Brady is the most blatant 'I know I am of average height but I look around and don't see any giants' contender imaginable.

[YL]

Sajid Javid - once seen as a bit of a hardliner (member of the Cornerstone Group) but decidedly on the middle in the Brexit issue, and hasn't really shone in his Home Secretary brief.

Javid is a fan of Ayn Rand.  Enough said.

[CumbrianLefty]

Two questions:

1. If May is out on June 6 and the leadership contest goes into mid-to-late July, who'll be PM in the early summer months? Will May stay on as a caretaker or will there be some sort of interim PM? If the latter, is there any precedent for that? I know there hasn't been in the past century or so, but perhaps something from the era of revolving-door Georgian/early Victorian PMs?
2. I suppose Rory Stewart has no chance? He's the only one of these people I sort of respect.

1. May is remaining PM until her successor as Tory leader is elected. If there is a final two to contest the membership (there wasn't last time) that means she will end up (just) passing the 3 year mark.

2. Less than 1% chance I would say. He was one of the very few Tory MPs my late father had any time for.

[Lord Halifax]

Truss has a strong presence on Instagram, and is possibly the only candidate with a page on Know Your Meme.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhBtilyGWPo

[LabourJersey]

So since the Tory MPs essentially decide on the top 2 candidates, what makes people think Boris is the front-runner? He seems to be hated by pretty much every MP--isn't it likely that they all vote strategically so he's not in the top 2?

[CumbrianLefty]

So since the Tory MPs essentially decide on the top 2 candidates, what makes people think Boris is the front-runner? He seems to be hated by pretty much every MP--isn't it likely that they all vote strategically so he's not in the top 2?

That is overstating it, he still does have some suckers fans amongst the parliamentary party.

[Blair]

I’d have agreed about boris but there’s a stupid myth going around Westminster that because he beat Red Ken in 2012 he’s someone the most electable, and has the power to beat back Farage.

Completely ignores the fact he’s the most unpopular choice with the public; but stupid thoughts are hard to kill.

[vileplume]

 Are there clear ideological differences among the leading candidates?  Who would be considered most on the right? Who the wettest? Who the most truly pro Brexit? etc.

Michael Gove - another Leave person (betraying his close ally David Cameron), although like BoJo one could argue that this was more a tactical decision than one of commitment. One of the few cabinet ministers to stay fairly loyal to May (or at least, he has stayed out the constant undermining and sniping that many ministers seemed to enjoy) despite them loathing each other on a personal level. Has been an unusually "activist" Environmental Secretary, although his previous reign as a controversial Education Sec means he doesn't have a lot of crossover appeal for the left.

This is not accurate. According to George Osborne in an interview with Alistair Campbell Gove had always been in favour of leaving the EU even when it wasn't a major political issue (hence why Osborne and Gove are still apparently good friends unlike his now toxic relationship with Johnson). Interestingly Osborne also says it was only Gove and himself out of all of Cameron's cabinet at the time that argued against making a referendum Tory party policy despite Gove favouring leaving. He apparently didn't believe that referendums were the right way to conduct democracy as they tend to be extremely polarising. This, you could argue, makes him more perceptive than the rest of the Tory Party combined.

Full interview if you care to watch it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqwi3ZRIgKA