2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Calthrina950]

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

I’m not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldn’t hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

I’ll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee that’s i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesn’t even seem to be trying to do that. It’s almost as if he’s going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

[Calthrina950]

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

I’m not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldn’t hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

I’ll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee that’s i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesn’t even seem to be trying to do that. It’s almost as if he’s going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

My confidence about Elliott is less because in 2018, for the first time ever in a competitive race, Hal Rogers won the county. And we've seen how the urban-rural divide is only becoming more and more significant, and that the Democrats are continuing to bottom out in Appalachia. But I suppose that, if Beshear manages to do as well as Jim Gray did in rural areas in 2016, he might manage to win Elliott, and probably Rowan County as well.

But at this point, so many Kentuckians are unwilling to vote for a Democrat at any level, regardless of how moderate they are, because they view them all as socialists in the vein of Bernie Sanders. We saw this in West Virginia with Manchin as well last year.

[Calthrina950]

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

I’m not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldn’t hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

I’ll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee that’s i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesn’t even seem to be trying to do that. It’s almost as if he’s going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

My confidence about Elliott is less because in 2018, for the first time ever in a competitive race, Hal Rogers won the county. And we've seen how the urban-rural divide is only becoming more and more significant, and that the Democrats are continuing to bottom out in Appalachia. But I suppose that, if Beshear manages to do as well as Jim Gray did in rural areas in 2016, he might manage to win Elliott, and probably Rowan County as well.

But at this point, so many Kentuckians are unwilling to vote for a Democrat at any level, regardless of how moderate they are, because they view them all as socialists in the vein of Bernie Sanders. We saw this in West Virginia with Manchin as well last year.

I have a little secret for ya, bud: it’s not because the hicks all view Democrats as socialists now (Republican have been saying that for a hundred years). Think of who the last president was, what his name was, and what his skin color was. I want you to pause and reflect on why you think those rural areas are suddenly so anti-Democrat now all of a sudden. I mean, really, really think on that one.

I'm very well aware of the role that racism has played, and continues to play, in Appalachia's movement towards the Democratic Party. It's one of the major factors that caused the Deep South to move into the Republican column as well, back during the Civil Rights Era and in the decades since. But there is no doubt that the modern-day Party's views on social issues, particularly gun rights, gay marriage, and abortion, has also played a role in fueling the region's realignment. These issues, in conjunction with the Monica Lewinsky scandal and the Democratic advocacy for climate change efforts (and hence, opposition to fossil fuels), help explain Al Gore's losses in the region to George W. Bush in 2000, and the continuing Democratic erosion in the coalfields of Eastern Kentucky, West Virginia, SW Pennsylvania, Eastern Ohio, etc.

[Calthrina950]

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.

I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.

[Calthrina950]

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.

I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.

Sad but true. And we might see JBE tossed out despite his popularity for being a Democrat anyway.

It seems when it comes to governors races, Democrats need a set of really exceptional circumstances to win red states these days (KS, LA, WV).

Meanwhile all it takes for blue states to elect Republicans is the perception of the Dem gubernatorial candidates as lazy (Anthony Brown, Martha Coakley, Sue Minter)

2018 truly has convinced me of the greater partisanship of Republicans, as compared to Democrats. It still amazes me how Charlie Baker managed to garner 67% of the vote in Massachusetts, of all places, and Larry Hogan won by 12% in the "inflexible" state of Maryland. Yet South Dakota, which is about as Republican as Maryland is Democratic, couldn't even give the Democrat a win, in spite of them being a moderate "Blue Dog", almost. The same can be said for Tennessee and Oklahoma, which are also as Republican as Maryland and Massachusetts are Democratic.

[Calthrina950]

But Republican officials are increasingly expressing optimism about the Kentucky contest. Recently-completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. The results, according to one person familiar with the data, represented a marked improvement for Bevin compared to the committee’s previous findings in the race.

Wow, sounds like the "undecideds" are breaking toward Bevin in a big way. Who ever could've predicted that?! It's not like this same thing has happened over and over again with Democrats polling well early on in crimson red states only to collapse in the final month of the race!

Kentucky voters are "coming home" to the Party, but they were always going to do that to begin with. Now, I can only wonder if Beshear will manage to keep his loss to within 5%. I wouldn't be surprised if Bevin ended up winning by a margin similar to Hawley or Braun, or even Stitt and Blackburn, when it's all over.

[Calthrina950]

Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

The same can be said for Jim Hood. I wouldn't be surprised if we are embarking upon a decades-long drought for Democrats in Kentucky, that will last well into this century.

[Calthrina950]

Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

The same can be said for Jim Hood. I wouldn't be surprised if we are embarking upon a decades-long drought for Democrats in Kentucky, that will last well into this century.

At least jim Hood has a good cushion of black folks and some suburban areas of the state to fall back on so he could get close. Beshear does not really have anything goin for him outside of Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort

Hood's chances are definitely better than Beshear's, but it's hard to see him actually winning at this point. And Hood is going to collapse in the northeastern foothills, compared to his prior races. It is undeniable that he will be hit in full force by the same trends of polarization as well.

[Calthrina950]

This is an interesting column: https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/local/joseph-gerth/2019/10/21/kentucky-governors-race-poll-results-shows-gop-making-gains/4024226002/. The author argues that Kentucky's gubernatorial election follows a "historical trend" of Democrats enjoying poll leads at the beginning, only to collapse during the final stages of the campaign.

Again, I truly wonder if Bevin will manage to score a double-digit win next month.

[Calthrina950]

Bevin is such an incapable person that he'll need every iota of Trumptardation of the Kentucky electorate to win

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-govs-race-stirs-clash-211243436.html

Sadly for the Republicans, Bevin (who is down by 19%) is the best hope they have just about anywhere. Is the national or local GOP really doing any better?

This is not 2007 or 2011 anymore. If you think Bevin going to lose by double digits, then I have a used car to sell you.

[Calthrina950]

This is not 2007 or 2011 anymore.

Yes it is.

No, it is not. The younger Beshear, if he wins (which he won't), would win by a much smaller margin than his father ever did. The good ol'boys in Elliott, or Knott, or Rowan, or Breathitt County "ain't voting for no Muslim-embracing, Communist-loving, open borders Demoncrats no more." Polarization has greatly damaged the Democratic electoral prospects in Appalachia, to a point from which they may not recover for the foreseeable future. Every other poll I've seen of this race shows a dead heat, and Bevin is starting to pull ahead.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1189268657412726784

Bevin knows his state more than most of the posters here. I've said previously that he might win by low double digits. 6-10 points is definitely a likely outcome at this point.

[Calthrina950]

This could either mean that pollsters have no clue what’s going on there, or that Beshear was indeed leading by 10%+ in their data and they decided this „cannot be true“ ...

Gee, let me guess.

After all, isn't RRH a right-wing pollster? If they had Bevin up at all, they'd release it.

Kentucky polls are notoriously unreliable, and in recent years, have been skewed in favor of the Democrats.

given the garbage-tier polls they put out for the NC specials, I assume it's something where Beshear wins despite Bevin carrying 40% of black voters

RRH was actually pretty accurate in predicting the outcome of those two special elections.

[Calthrina950]

Kentucky polls are notoriously unreliable

Maybe that's because Kentucky elections are notoriously unreliable.

You ignored the last part of my sentence: they have been skewed in favor of the Democrats. The last gubernatorial race there in 2015 is a prime example of this, with Bevin defeating Conway by a margin much wider than had been expected in the polls. At any rate though, you're convinced at this point that Beshear will win in a double-digit landslide, so what else can I say?

[Calthrina950]

You ignored the last part of my sentence: they have been skewed in favor of the Democrats.

Reality is skewed in favor of the Democrats.

Not really. If it were, Clinton would have won in 2016.

[Calthrina950]

given the garbage-tier polls they put out for the NC specials, I assume it's something where Beshear wins despite Bevin carrying 40% of black voters

RRH was actually pretty accurate in predicting the outcome of those two special elections.

No. Their ludicrous junk had Bishop only losing black voters by 4% (he didn't do significantly better than generic R in black-majority precincts), losing 18-29 voters by 4, and winning Cumberland County by 14% (he won by 0.18%). They balanced this by having McCready only losing by 9% in Union County (he lost by 21%) and only losing white voters by 3%. The fact that these bizarre samples happened to cancel each other out does not mean RRH is a good pollster or can be trusted to deliver accurate results under any circumstances.

I'll agree that the crosstabs were terrible, but notice that I stated they were accurate in predicting the outcome of those races. They had Bishop up narrowly over McCready, and Murphy leading Thomas by double digits. And these were the overall results in the races. RRH themselves, moreover, are now trying to find a new and more accurate poll vendor, and they recognize the issues.

[Calthrina950]

Why are you assuming it’s a bad poll?

Because this board loves Bevin.

It is not that this board "loves Bevin", it is that most on here realize that he is the favorite in this race, in spite of what we would wish to be true otherwise.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1191515001485451267

How ironic and how true. Trump's rally has whipped his supporters into a frenzy. It was the final nail in Beshear's coffin, adding to the other nails that have already been hammered firmly into it. Beshear will soon be set ablaze, and will disappear into the abyss, never to emerge again into public office in his home state.

[Calthrina950]

Bevin is gonna win. The exit polls do show some good signs for Beshear but Bevin will still win.

The race could very well be closer than what I anticipated, but Bevin's win is looming on the horizon. This will probably be the last time in a long while that a Kentucky gubernatorial election will even be this close for Democrats. As I've said, if Beshear (and/or Stumbo and French-Henry) wins Elliott County, he might be the last Democrat to win it for the next seventy years.

[Calthrina950]

This is looking terrible for Bevin.

I will be so happy if Bevin does lose. Perhaps Kentucky is not entirely gone for the Democratic Party. And in spite of all my talk about "polarization", I was very happy when Joe Manchin managed to win reelection last year. So don't anyone think that I'm set against Democratic victories in these states.

But it's still early, so we'll see what happens.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/politico_steve/status/1191913438068592641?s=21

womp womp

Sad loser Bevin won't admit he lost. Sad!

Bevin is refusing to concede, just like Roy Moore back in 2017. It won't matter anyhow. He will be out of office in two months.

[Calthrina950]

Not sure if this has already been discussed (I stopped reading after Beshear was named apparent winner) but Kenton almost exactly matched the statewide margin.

Might Kenton become Kentucky's new bellwether county?