2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:38:01 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 [25] 26 27 28 29 30 ... 36
Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1
Bevin (R)
 
#2
Beshear (D)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 163

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 53214 times)
Epaminondas
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,742


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #600 on: November 03, 2019, 09:01:29 PM »

However, I'm logging it to 10 PM because that is the general midpoint of the big kahunas, and still very useful with close races. [Ex: LA-GOV Jungle 2019, Edwards settled into 46%, but Abraham was still in second place at the number Rispone ultimately took]

Beshear won in 2015 by 0.2%, when was that called?
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #601 on: November 03, 2019, 09:58:27 PM »

Also remember that Kentucky crosses time zones. So while polls close at 6pm in both halves, one closes at 6pm est and one at 7.
Logged
TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,402


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #602 on: November 04, 2019, 12:06:57 AM »

Any word on whether or not exit polling will be conducted for this race?
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #603 on: November 04, 2019, 08:54:56 AM »

This is interesting, McConnell didn't want Trump to get invovled in Kentucky because he didn't want a potential loss to harm his reputation.

Logged
Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,570
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #604 on: November 04, 2019, 09:47:07 AM »

This is interesting, McConnell didn't want Trump to get invovled in Kentucky because he didn't want a potential loss to harm his reputation.



MoscowMitch is obviously delusional if he thinks there is any way Bevin could lose. IceSpear need to tell McConell straight about Bevin victory being about as sure as the sun raising in the morning.
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #605 on: November 04, 2019, 11:10:22 AM »

What'll be more interesting at this point is whether the race gets called for Bevin by 10 PM ET or not. If it doesn't, I'd be very optimistic about Beshear actually pulling through.

I believe the polls close at 6 [which is 5 by my clock], and I think it was around 9 PM in 2008 when Lunsford officially lost. Pretty sure it was 9 when McGrath was out too last year. The midpoint the should be around 7:30 PM

However, I'm logging it to 10 PM because that is the general midpoint of the big kahunas, and still very useful with close races. [Ex: LA-GOV Jungle 2019, Edwards settled into 46%, but Abraham was still in second place at the number Rispone ultimately took]

Honestly, I'm gonna be sadder about Greg Stumbo losing than Beshear.  I've always liked him in a "yeah, he's an a**hole, but he's our a**hole and a tough one at that" sort of way.  I'm old enough to remember his time as KY AG when he exposed the corruption scandals that brought down Ernie Fletcher (among others).  Plus, he seemed to be a real populist back when the word actually meant something (i.e. before Palin and later CNBC right-wingers turned it into a buzzword for corporatist race-baiters).
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #606 on: November 04, 2019, 12:53:24 PM »

Is that Beshear +19 poll really gonna be the last one we get?
Logged
One Term Floridian
swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,042


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #607 on: November 04, 2019, 01:33:45 PM »

Is that Beshear +19 poll really gonna be the last one we get?

I hate Bevin but I hope he holds that poll up like Truman if he wins tomorrow. Worst poll I’ve seen in a long time lol
Logged
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,905


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #608 on: November 04, 2019, 01:34:56 PM »

Is that Beshear +19 poll really gonna be the last one we get?

I hate Bevin but I hope he holds that poll up like Truman if he wins tomorrow. Worst poll I’ve seen in a long time lol

Why are you assuming it’s a bad poll? Bevin is least poplar gov in America. The demographics of the poll look accurate
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,952


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #609 on: November 04, 2019, 01:36:16 PM »

Why are you assuming it’s a bad poll?

Because this board loves Bevin.
Logged
Skunk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,456
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -9.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #610 on: November 04, 2019, 01:43:37 PM »

No, we don't. Bevin is the worst governor in the country. It's just that Republicans win elections in Kentucky.
Logged
One Term Floridian
swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,042


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #611 on: November 04, 2019, 01:46:57 PM »

No, we don't. Bevin is the worst governor in the country. It's just that Republicans win elections in Kentucky.

Agreed. While I legitimately believe Beshear has a shot at this tomorrow, there is a 0% chance he wins by anywhere near the 19 points that poll has him winning by
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #612 on: November 04, 2019, 01:58:59 PM »

Is that Beshear +19 poll really gonna be the last one we get?

I hate Bevin but I hope he holds that poll up like Truman if he wins tomorrow. Worst poll I’ve seen in a long time lol

Why are you assuming it’s a bad poll? Bevin is least poplar gov in America. The demographics of the poll look accurate

It might not be wrong, but it probbaly is wrong. I just wish we got some more data here.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #613 on: November 04, 2019, 03:04:38 PM »

Is that Beshear +19 poll really gonna be the last one we get?

I hate Bevin but I hope he holds that poll up like Truman if he wins tomorrow. Worst poll I’ve seen in a long time lol

Why are you assuming it’s a bad poll? Bevin is least poplar gov in America. The demographics of the poll look accurate

Take a deeper look into the crosstabs and you'll realize why.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,352


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #614 on: November 04, 2019, 07:55:24 PM »

Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #615 on: November 04, 2019, 10:02:47 PM »


It is not that this board "loves Bevin", it is that most on here realize that he is the favorite in this race, in spite of what we would wish to be true otherwise.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #616 on: November 05, 2019, 01:09:40 AM »



OMG I am literally dying XD
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #617 on: November 05, 2019, 02:27:22 AM »



How ironic and how true. Trump's rally has whipped his supporters into a frenzy. It was the final nail in Beshear's coffin, adding to the other nails that have already been hammered firmly into it. Beshear will soon be set ablaze, and will disappear into the abyss, never to emerge again into public office in his home state.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #618 on: November 05, 2019, 09:31:02 AM »

I still think Bevin wins, but I have a gut feeling that this will be closer than most people here expect, especially with how unpredictable turnout patterns are in an off-year election and given that Bevin's unpopularity (and the Beshear name, to a certain extent) is exactly the kind of thing which would mitigate the Republican federal trend in a gubernatorial race. I’m sticking with Bevin +5-6, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this one keeps us up late into the night. Certainly not buying that we’ll see a KY-SEN 2014/OK-GOV 2018 redux here.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,587
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #619 on: November 05, 2019, 09:31:47 AM »

Calling a Bevin +7 win tonight, an abysmal showing for his campaign.

When someone get turnout numbers, or some kind of last minute indicators please post them her.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #620 on: November 05, 2019, 10:40:05 AM »

Just in case anyone actually thinks that I "love" Bevin, I don't. I can assure you that no other left-wing poster predicting a big win for Bevin does. I would be thrilled to be completely wrong about this race, and I'd happily eat some crow-filled humble pie with a side of KFC if Beshear were to somehow win. However, I'll believe Kentucky electing a Democrat in 2019 when I see it.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,952


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #621 on: November 05, 2019, 10:42:31 AM »

Just in case anyone actually thinks that I "love" Bevin, I don't. I can assure you that no other left-wing poster predicting a big win for Bevin does. I would be thrilled to be completely wrong about this race, and I'd happily eat some crow-filled humble pie with a side of KFC if Beshear were to somehow win. However, I'll believe Kentucky electing a Democrat in 2019 when I see it.

I don't think people quite grasp just how hated Bevin is.
Logged
VPH
vivaportugalhabs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,682
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #622 on: November 05, 2019, 10:49:33 AM »

We'll see whether polarization or deep disapproval of Matt Bevin wins out today. I'm slightly hopeful because of recent Dem gains downballot in Eastern KY, but I also am prepared for a Beshear loss.
Logged
They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,236
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #623 on: November 05, 2019, 10:53:06 AM »

Just in case anyone actually thinks that I "love" Bevin, I don't. I can assure you that no other left-wing poster predicting a big win for Bevin does. I would be thrilled to be completely wrong about this race, and I'd happily eat some crow-filled humble pie with a side of KFC if Beshear were to somehow win. However, I'll believe Kentucky electing a Democrat in 2019 when I see it.

I don't think people quite grasp just how hated Bevin is.

Yeah, but Republicans, especially Kentucky Republicans, would vote for Hitler (R) over Jesus (D)
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,756


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #624 on: November 05, 2019, 01:51:33 PM »

Bevin not exactly exuding confidence.

Logged
Pages: 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 [25] 26 27 28 29 30 ... 36  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 13 queries.