2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/BGPolitics/status/1191785663529725952

Report of heavy turnout in Shelbyville precinct 102, which is heavily Democratic in statewide contests. Conway won it 335 to 238 (54-38) in 2015. Jim Gray also won it over Rand Paul in 2016.

[Ebsy]

Voting surges in the afternoon as people get off work/leave early to go vote. This is how it goes in ever election, with heavy voting between like 3 and 6 pm.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/bourbonswan/status/1191804140307066881

This precinct was extremely close in 2015, Bevin 287 to 260, winning with under 50% of the vote.

[Ebsy]

No reports of vote totals prior to polls being closed are credible, and spreading such reports is irresponsible. In most jurisdictions ballots are not even counted until after polls close, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to know vote totals prior to official results reporting. Having checked the relevant laws and guidelines in Kentucky, it is illegal to count votes prior to polls closing. Anyone purporting to have done so is claiming to have conducted criminal activity and broken the law.

[Ebsy]

No reports of vote totals prior to polls being closed are credible, and spreading such reports is irresponsible. In most jurisdictions ballots are not even counted until after polls close, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to know vote totals prior to official results reporting. Having checked the relevant laws and guidelines in Kentucky, it is illegal to count votes prior to polls closing. Anyone purporting to have done so is claiming to have conducted criminal activity and broken the law.

What kind of loser makes up voting numbers?

What king of loser makes up DMR poll numbers?

It's possible that these people are seeing/hearing about the ballot totals on in-person absentee machines. They really shouldn't be talking about them if they are as polls are still open and reporting them is definitely a legally gray area.

[Ebsy]

I'm not entirely sure about how KY does it (according to Ebsy, this wouldn't be legally allowed), but here in GA, county election boards will begin counting mail ballots in the early afternoon via a process known as sequestration. Depending on how many ballots have been cast, the time at which this begins may be earlier (noon to 2 PM) or later (4 to 7 PM). Representatives for both parties will be present at the counting and nobody is allowed to leave the room until the polls are closed and two separate sets of counts are complete/in agreement (I don't think technically they're even allowed to bring their phones in, but that's not always enforced).

Even if this isn't legally how things are done in Kentucky, it would not surprise me if many "small town" election boards begin counting ballots ahead of schedule because they don't want to be there all night. It's KY: very similar to GA in the sheer number of counties and how few people live in many of them, so some casual law-breaking isn't out of the question.

Nevertheless, we get "Twitter turnout reports" in every election and a good deal of them turn out to be fake. So, in the spirit of things:

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun

Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]

As usual, you hit the nail on the head Griff.

[Ebsy]

Republican Election Fraud

https://twitter.com/BenWSYX6/status/1191796553532375041?s=20

This is in Ohio.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/jmnemes/status/1191832158832381954

Looks like high (relative to 2015) turnout in heavily Republican Boone County. Union is an exurb of Cincinnati.

[Ebsy]

NYT page came live 1 hour from poll closing - rather late but ok.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/05/us/elections/results-kentucky-governor-general-election.html

Wow, precinct level results! Is this going to be a feature for other elections as well?

We were supposed to get them in 2018 but we all know how that went.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/CLEGoBigBLUE/status/1191844451410489344

Heavily dem precinct in Fayette County. No idea where he is getting the 65% number.

[Ebsy]

Fayette County absentee 2015: Bevin: 633 Conway: 1,041
Fayette County absentee 2019: Bevin: 1,503 Beshear: 2,962

[Ebsy]

Brashear getting close to 42% in Boone County. That's insanely good. Bevin won by over 2 to 1 there last time.

[Ebsy]

Also the reporting sites seem to be incredibly behind on Fayette County. Brashear is winning there by 40k votes (Conway only won it by 10k).

[Ebsy]

Beshear narrowly wins Brethitt County, carrying the Hillbilly Elegy vote.

[Ebsy]

My Bevin +6 prediction seems to be coming true.

This good results for Beshear are tempting, but this is Kentucky and Matt Bevin will triumph (unfortunately for Kentuckians).

I would not say this is consistent with the results so far... Beshear is currently leading.

[Ebsy]

Beshear wins Elliott by 20 points 59-39 according to CNN.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2019/results/kentucky/governor

Icespear BTFO

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1191886701410627584?s=20

Absolutely incredible.

[Ebsy]

It's went from like a 3-point lead for Beshear to a 1-point lead (from 89% to 95% reporting) in like 10 minutes. Not sure I'm ready to accept Wasserman's call just yet.

What's left is some of western Kentucky and a bit of Jefferson County. I think it will be enough to secure Beshear the win but the outcome is definitely in doubt.

[Ebsy]

Bevin will get a couple thousand votes in what is left of Western Kentucky but I don't think it is possible that he closes the gap all the way.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/politico_steve/status/1191913438068592641?s=21

womp womp