2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1
Bevin (R)
 
#2
Beshear (D)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 163

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 53138 times)
Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #650 on: November 05, 2019, 03:13:56 PM »

Here we go....turn out reports that juice the hopes of atlas reds

If turnout is so high in Louisville, why assume it isn’t high elsewhere?

A high turnout Kentucky election favors the GOP

Believe this at your own will.










How would these people know the exact results of absentee votes in all these counties before polls close? For that matter it is highly suspect that the libertarian has gotten 0% from these votes

No idea, should note that it appears the kypoljunkie is a Democrat and the KYPatroit17 is a Republican. They might have inside sources who are leaking informaiton? That's why I said believe this at your own will.
Fair enough, I'm probably gonna discount this unless it's confirmed by someone reputable
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #651 on: November 05, 2019, 03:14:54 PM »

Here we go....turn out reports that juice the hopes of atlas reds

If turnout is so high in Louisville, why assume it isn’t high elsewhere?

A high turnout Kentucky election favors the GOP

Believe this at your own will.










How would these people know the exact results of absentee votes in all these counties before polls close? For that matter it is highly suspect that the libertarian has gotten 0% from these votes

No idea, should note that it appears the kypoljunkie is a Democrat and the KYPatroit17 is a Republican. They might have inside sources who are leaking informaiton? That's why I said believe this at your own will.

In KY, does early vote skew a certain way compared to Election Day vote?
KY doesn't have early vote, it has absentee but that is often very small
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Ebsy
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« Reply #652 on: November 05, 2019, 03:18:12 PM »

No reports of vote totals prior to polls being closed are credible, and spreading such reports is irresponsible. In most jurisdictions ballots are not even counted until after polls close, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to know vote totals prior to official results reporting. Having checked the relevant laws and guidelines in Kentucky, it is illegal to count votes prior to polls closing. Anyone purporting to have done so is claiming to have conducted criminal activity and broken the law.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #653 on: November 05, 2019, 03:22:43 PM »

No reports of vote totals prior to polls being closed are credible, and spreading such reports is irresponsible. In most jurisdictions ballots are not even counted until after polls close, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to know vote totals prior to official results reporting. Having checked the relevant laws and guidelines in Kentucky, it is illegal to count votes prior to polls closing. Anyone purporting to have done so is claiming to have conducted criminal activity and broken the law.

Related are people on Twitter reporting "exit polls" at twelve noon on election day.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #654 on: November 05, 2019, 03:24:52 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2019, 03:28:59 PM by Gass3268 »

No reports of vote totals prior to polls being closed are credible, and spreading such reports is irresponsible. In most jurisdictions ballots are not even counted until after polls close, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to know vote totals prior to official results reporting. Having checked the relevant laws and guidelines in Kentucky, it is illegal to count votes prior to polls closing. Anyone purporting to have done so is claiming to have conducted criminal activity and broken the law.

Also possible these are people seeing campaign data where they model this stuff or just making it up.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #655 on: November 05, 2019, 03:25:10 PM »

No reports of vote totals prior to polls being closed are credible, and spreading such reports is irresponsible. In most jurisdictions ballots are not even counted until after polls close, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to know vote totals prior to official results reporting. Having checked the relevant laws and guidelines in Kentucky, it is illegal to count votes prior to polls closing. Anyone purporting to have done so is claiming to have conducted criminal activity and broken the law.

What kind of loser makes up voting numbers?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #656 on: November 05, 2019, 03:27:46 PM »

No reports of vote totals prior to polls being closed are credible, and spreading such reports is irresponsible. In most jurisdictions ballots are not even counted until after polls close, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to know vote totals prior to official results reporting. Having checked the relevant laws and guidelines in Kentucky, it is illegal to count votes prior to polls closing. Anyone purporting to have done so is claiming to have conducted criminal activity and broken the law.

What kind of loser makes up voting numbers?

What king of loser makes up DMR poll numbers?

It's possible that these people are seeing/hearing about the ballot totals on in-person absentee machines. They really shouldn't be talking about them if they are as polls are still open and reporting them is definitely a legally gray area.
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Donerail
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« Reply #657 on: November 05, 2019, 03:28:45 PM »

What kind of loser makes up voting numbers?

Someone who wants to juice the predictit markets
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #658 on: November 05, 2019, 03:31:42 PM »

Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for “Beshear”? Let’s see how that turns out!
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Computer89
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« Reply #659 on: November 05, 2019, 03:33:28 PM »

Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for “Beshear”? Let’s see how that turns out!

Bevin is the only one using it because he either wants to make his win look super impressive or give a lame excuse if he gets upset and loses
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Gass3268
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« Reply #660 on: November 05, 2019, 03:37:19 PM »

Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for “Beshear”? Let’s see how that turns out!

I didn't get that sense reading those tweets.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #661 on: November 05, 2019, 03:41:25 PM »

Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for “Beshear”? Let’s see how that turns out!

I didn't get that sense reading those tweets.

Then how are they getting the numbers if votes aren’t counted yet?

I’ve been following elections for a while. We always see turnout reports, we always see anecdotes, I have NEVER seen people getting hold of hard results hours before polls close.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #662 on: November 05, 2019, 03:43:00 PM »

Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for “Beshear”? Let’s see how that turns out!

I didn't get that sense reading those tweets.

Then how are they getting the numbers if votes aren’t counted yet?

I’ve been following elections for a while. We always see turnout reports, we always see anecdotes, I have NEVER seen people getting hold of hard results hours before polls close.

Like I said, they either illegally have early results, have modeled results from the campaigns, or are making up numbers.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #663 on: November 05, 2019, 03:48:27 PM »

High (in crappy US terms) turnout isn’t necessarily good for Democrats.

It always depends what the mood among an electorate is at a given point in time.

Republicans can win a landslide in a 10% turnout election, or can do so in a 95% turnout election.

The same for Democrats.

I expect turnout to be up a bit from 2015, but not by a lot. It was a disgustingly low 30% or something in 2015, so it’s probably 35% today statewide.

Still totally abysmal when compared internationally for such an important office.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #664 on: November 05, 2019, 03:49:09 PM »

Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for “Beshear”? Let’s see how that turns out!

I didn't get that sense reading those tweets.

Then how are they getting the numbers if votes aren’t counted yet?

I’ve been following elections for a while. We always see turnout reports, we always see anecdotes, I have NEVER seen people getting hold of hard results hours before polls close.

Like I said, they either illegally have early results, have modeled results from the campaigns, or are making up numbers.

Wouldn’t it be really risky to try to count votes illegally in front of other people?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #665 on: November 05, 2019, 03:49:49 PM »

I'm not entirely sure about how KY does it (according to Ebsy, this wouldn't be legally allowed), but here in GA, county election boards will begin counting mail ballots in the early afternoon via a process known as sequestration. Depending on how many ballots have been cast, the time at which this begins may be earlier (noon to 2 PM) or later (4 to 7 PM). Representatives for both parties will be present at the counting and nobody is allowed to leave the room until the polls are closed and two separate sets of counts are complete/in agreement (I don't think technically they're even allowed to bring their phones in, but that's not always enforced).

Even if this isn't legally how things are done in Kentucky, it would not surprise me if many "small town" election boards begin counting ballots ahead of schedule because they don't want to be there all night. It's KY: very similar to GA in the sheer number of counties and how few people live in many of them, so some casual law-breaking isn't out of the question.

Nevertheless, we get "Twitter turnout reports" in every election and a good deal of them turn out to be fake. So, in the spirit of things:

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun Smiley

Quote
Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]
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Gass3268
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« Reply #666 on: November 05, 2019, 03:56:10 PM »

Republican Election Fraud

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Ebsy
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« Reply #667 on: November 05, 2019, 03:56:43 PM »

I'm not entirely sure about how KY does it (according to Ebsy, this wouldn't be legally allowed), but here in GA, county election boards will begin counting mail ballots in the early afternoon via a process known as sequestration. Depending on how many ballots have been cast, the time at which this begins may be earlier (noon to 2 PM) or later (4 to 7 PM). Representatives for both parties will be present at the counting and nobody is allowed to leave the room until the polls are closed and two separate sets of counts are complete/in agreement (I don't think technically they're even allowed to bring their phones in, but that's not always enforced).

Even if this isn't legally how things are done in Kentucky, it would not surprise me if many "small town" election boards begin counting ballots ahead of schedule because they don't want to be there all night. It's KY: very similar to GA in the sheer number of counties and how few people live in many of them, so some casual law-breaking isn't out of the question.

Nevertheless, we get "Twitter turnout reports" in every election and a good deal of them turn out to be fake. So, in the spirit of things:

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun Smiley

Quote
Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]

As usual, you hit the nail on the head Griff.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #668 on: November 05, 2019, 04:07:25 PM »

Republican Election Fraud


This is in Ohio.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #669 on: November 05, 2019, 04:30:01 PM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #670 on: November 05, 2019, 04:35:42 PM »

Republican Election Fraud


This is in Ohio.

Haha, sorry.
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2016
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« Reply #671 on: November 05, 2019, 04:37:55 PM »

You can't just simply assume that every Voter from Louisville & Lexington will vote Democratic. I got a feel Zaybay might get disappointed again tonight like he was in 2018 with the Senate Races.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #672 on: November 05, 2019, 04:42:57 PM »

You can't just simply assume that every Voter from Louisville & Lexington will vote Democratic. I got a feel Zaybay might get disappointed again tonight like he was in 2018 with the Senate Races.

Also, note that even if turnout is higher in those places, it might not actually be decisive enough of a difference to matter in the end

If GOP turnout in California was high and dem turnout was low in some election, it would likely just mean the margin would be narrower than expected.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #673 on: November 05, 2019, 04:52:28 PM »



Looks like high (relative to 2015) turnout in heavily Republican Boone County. Union is an exurb of Cincinnati.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #674 on: November 05, 2019, 04:54:02 PM »

1 hour away from poll closing and NYT doesn't have their results page up....
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