NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Asta]

Camden county 59-40 for Murphy
Bergen county (my home) 55-45 for Ciatarelli

These two results are just cringes if you're a Democrat. I don't know for sure what % of the outstanding votes are by mail or in person, but I highly doubt it is because it mostly counted in-person votes first.

There is a lot left in Essex and Passaic (Biden won by 56 and 17 points, respectively) but how much Murphy will underperform there is the question. If I assume that he will underperform there by similar margin, then Murphy will probably, even very likely lose.

[Alben Barkley]

Ciattarelli's margin up to 53,000 votes.

Yes, this is a bit of a red mirage. All of the election day votes are being added in right now.

It doesn't appear any of the VBM have been added in, those were like D+40 based on party.

Not what Kornacki said. He said all in Essex County counted so far is mail, with lots of same day left. Meanwhile in the counties that are done counting or near it, Ciattarelli is hitting his targets.

[kwabbit]

It doesn't appear we have any answers as to whether the VBM has been counted yet.

It definitely hasn't. Mail ballots weren't even due until today, those will probably pad Murphy's margin a bit in the end.

Can we expect those to be counted and tabulated soon, or...?

I really doubt it. They'll probably trickle in since a lot are yet to arrive. Remember NJ-07 was undecided for a few weeks because of the mail ballots. NJ doesn't have a speedy election administration as is the case in a lot of blue states like NY or CA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ciattarelli's margin up to 53,000 votes.

Yes, this is a bit of a red mirage. All of the election day votes are being added in right now.


Lol it's a little Ed wave
It doesn't appear any of the VBM have been added in, those were like D+40 based on party.

[Alben Barkley]

It doesn't appear we have any answers as to whether the VBM has been counted yet.

It definitely hasn't. Mail ballots weren't even due until today, those will probably pad Murphy's margin a bit in the end.

Can we expect those to be counted and tabulated soon, or...?

I really doubt it. They'll probably trickle in since a lot are yet to arrive. Remember NJ-07 was undecided for a few weeks because of the mail ballots. NJ doesn't have a speedy election administration as is the case in a lot of blue states like NY or CA.

NY has a speedy election administration??? That's new.

Hell, same for CA as well.

[LimoLiberal]

I guarantee you VBM has been counted in several counties.

[wbrocks67]

Ciattarelli's margin up to 53,000 votes.

Yes, this is a bit of a red mirage. All of the election day votes are being added in right now.

It doesn't appear any of the VBM have been added in, those were like D+40 based on party.

Not what Kornacki said. He said all in Essex County counted so far is mail, with lots of same day left. Meanwhile in the counties that are done counting or near it, Ciattarelli is hitting his targets.

Just b/c Essex counted their mail ins does not mean the rest of the counties have.

[CookieDamage]

Camden county 59-40 for Murphy
Bergen county (my home) 55-45 for Ciatarelli

These two results are just cringes if you're a Democrat. I don't know for sure what % of the outstanding votes are by mail or in person, but I highly doubt it is because it mostly counted in-person votes first.

There is a lot left in Essex and Passaic (Biden won by 56 and 17 points, respectively) but how much Murphy will underperform there is the question. If I assume that he will underperform there by similar margin, then Murphy will probably, even very likely lose.

Where are you getting these conclusions?

[Alben Barkley]

Ciattarelli's margin up to 53,000 votes.

Yes, this is a bit of a red mirage. All of the election day votes are being added in right now.

It doesn't appear any of the VBM have been added in, those were like D+40 based on party.

Don't push this woke garbage! The Republican is going to win and it's racist against white people to say otherwise!

Man, can you please stop whining and attacking things that literally no one ever said for like 5 minutes? We're just trying to figure out numbers here. Numbers don't care about feelings or ideology.

[lfromnj]

I guarantee you VBM has been counted in several counties.

Yeah it certainly has like in areas like Cape May. However dems still have their strongholds while Rs just have Sussex out.

[kwabbit]

It doesn't appear we have any answers as to whether the VBM has been counted yet.

It definitely hasn't. Mail ballots weren't even due until today, those will probably pad Murphy's margin a bit in the end.

Can we expect those to be counted and tabulated soon, or...?

I really doubt it. They'll probably trickle in since a lot are yet to arrive. Remember NJ-07 was undecided for a few weeks because of the mail ballots. NJ doesn't have a speedy election administration as is the case in a lot of blue states like NY or CA.

NY has a speedy election administration??? That's new.

Lol maybe my wording should've been clearer. I mean it doesn't, just like NY and CA are disastrously slow.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455726048088399873
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455726362497540097

[CookieDamage]

Ciattarelli's margin up to 53,000 votes.

Yes, this is a bit of a red mirage. All of the election day votes are being added in right now.

It doesn't appear any of the VBM have been added in, those were like D+40 based on party.

Not what Kornacki said. He said all in Essex County counted so far is mail, with lots of same day left. Meanwhile in the counties that are done counting or near it, Ciattarelli is hitting his targets.

Just b/c Essex counted their mail ins does not mean the rest of the counties have.

Yes, it seems like Somerset and Essex started with VBM while Bergen did not.

[DrScholl]

Ciattarelli's margin up to 53,000 votes.

Yes, this is a bit of a red mirage. All of the election day votes are being added in right now.

It doesn't appear any of the VBM have been added in, those were like D+40 based on party.

Don't push this woke garbage! The Republican is going to win and it's racist against white people to say otherwise!

Man, can you please stop whining and attacking things that literally no one ever said for like 5 minutes? We're just trying to figure out numbers here. Numbers don't care about feelings or ideology.

I'll will post what I want. If you don't like it then suck it up. This is a free American country and I will not be muzzled! THIS IS AMERICA!

But seriously, this should let you know how annoying the anti-woke crowd really is. It's not too pleasant having "WOKE" screamed over every single issue, is it?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Camden county 59-40 for Murphy
Bergen county (my home) 55-45 for Ciatarelli

These two results are just cringes if you're a Democrat. I don't know for sure what % of the outstanding votes are by mail or in person, but I highly doubt it is because it mostly counted in-person votes first.

There is a lot left in Essex and Passaic (Biden won by 56 and 17 points, respectively) but how much Murphy will underperform there is the question. If I assume that he will underperform there by similar margin, then Murphy will probably, even very likely lose.

Bergen county is only 40% in at those numbers. Camden is 79% in per the NYT.

[NOVA Green]

I mean the ad was kinda spammy and annoying but Murphy saying NJ's not your state if you don't like high taxes is probably not the best statement.

He actually said that?

SALT is likely a bigger issue in NJ than VA....

Even working-class folxs got screwed by the Trump / Republican tax cuts in '17.

Not being able to deduct the same amount of State taxes from our Fed taxes hosed us when we moved back to OR and the rent had shot through the roof, while all of the money goes into the pockets of rich folks elsewhere....

[Vespucci]

Something's weird here. If Ciattarelli was in position to win, wouldn't Youngkin be winning by like 10%?

[Continential]

How many votes are VBM and how much should Ciaterriali lead by with in-person voters in order to win even with mail votes?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

me, having called Murphy's demise last week

[Alben Barkley]

Something's weird here. If Ciattarelli was in position to win, wouldn't Youngkin be winning by like 10%?

That assumes a strong correlation between the NJ and VA results that there's no real reason to assume exists, especially for a state level race.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Is Murphy actually going to lose?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I expected a Murphy win by ~7 points.
This is quite the Republican overperformance

[PSOL]

Is Murphy actually going to lose?

Maybe

[Bootes Void]

Is Murphy actually going to lose?

Probably not but a huge underperformance seems to be on the way

[wbrocks67]

How many votes are VBM and how much should Ciaterriali lead by with in-person voters in order to win even with mail votes?

Dems lead VBM by over 40% and even Early In Person by 13-14%, so that's what makes me wonder if many have been counted, unless there was a total Ciatarelli +50 election day vote.