NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Senator Incitatus]

Huh, another mainstream, Pharma-bought candidate underperforming massively.

This is what happens when a party locks out progressives meaningfully from power on a local level, as “moderate” governance is not good governance.

Murphy is literally one of the most "progressive" elected officials in the country, on paper and in speeches, and isn't bought by anyone (because he's a rich self-funded banker, which brings its own questions). Sanders literally campaigned with him last week.

[kwabbit]

Some of the blue counties are reporting next to nothing.

Bergen, which had Murphy +15 in 2017 with 200K+ votes is reporting... 2,000 votes right now.

But what if Ciattarelli wins Bergen...

Trolling.

Bergen was Biden +16, not out of the question for Ciatarelli to win. Ciatarelli is blowing out Trump in Monmouth and Hunterdon, exceeding by over 16%

[CookieDamage]

Huh, another mainstream, Pharma-bought candidate underperforming massively.

This is what happens when a party locks out progressives meaningfully from power on a local level, as “moderate” governance is not good governance.

Murphy is literally one of the most "progressive" elected officials in the country, on paper and in speeches, and isn't bought by anyone (because he's a rich self-funded banker, which brings its own questions). Sanders literally campaigned with him last week.

It's almost as if PSOL is either trolling or so deluded by justice dem talking points that's the only thing he says now.

[Senator Incitatus]

Ciattarelli up huge in Atlantic. Will see how much filters down to Polistina.

[CookieDamage]

Some of the blue counties are reporting next to nothing.

Bergen, which had Murphy +15 in 2017 with 200K+ votes is reporting... 2,000 votes right now.

But what if Ciattarelli wins Bergen...

Trolling.

Bergen was Biden +16, not out of the question for Ciatarelli to win. Ciatarelli is blowing out Trump in Monmouth and Hunterdon, exceeding by over 16%

The caveat being that Hunterdon and Monmouth have been republican strongholds up and down the ballot for years, while Bergen has been much more Dem friendly.

[Vespucci]

Some of the blue counties are reporting next to nothing.

Bergen, which had Murphy +15 in 2017 with 200K+ votes is reporting... 2,000 votes right now.

But what if Ciattarelli wins Bergen...

Trolling.

Bergen was Biden +16, not out of the question for Ciatarelli to win. Ciatarelli is blowing out Trump in Monmouth and Hunterdon, exceeding by over 16%

...in the election day vote. That's a pretty important distinction

[kwabbit]

Some of the blue counties are reporting next to nothing.

Bergen, which had Murphy +15 in 2017 with 200K+ votes is reporting... 2,000 votes right now.

But what if Ciattarelli wins Bergen...

Trolling.

Bergen was Biden +16, not out of the question for Ciatarelli to win. Ciatarelli is blowing out Trump in Monmouth and Hunterdon, exceeding by over 16%

...in the election day vote. That's a pretty important distinction

In early+eday, right? I'm assuming the intial dumps were early and then the rest were e-day. The initial dumps were a lot less for Ciatarelli and then the margins have expanded. I don't see why the dump would be e-day and then early would trickle in.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I'm not sure if any of these have VBM #s included.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Imagine if at the end of the night NJ would be closer than VA. Who would have possibly thought that or predicted that.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Nate Cohn 13m ago

Democrats may be poised for big disappointment in Virginia, but they do seem likely to hold on in New Jersey — even though the Republican leads at the moment. Virtually all the reported vote is from Republican areas.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, I'm not sure if any of these have VBM #s included.

Middlesex is certainly the early vote. No way is Murphy winning there by 26.

[Asta]

I ran some numbers and Ciatarelli could very well win this.

Moreover, Bergen dumpoff has Ciatarelli leading by 55-45.

[Alben Barkley]

I ran some numbers and Ciatarelli could very well win this.

Moreover, Bergen dumpoff has Ciatarelli leading by 55-45.

If this happens, to say the party will need to do some soul-searching is a massive understatement. Will be even worse than the GOP losses in 2017.

[Asta]

I ran some numbers and Ciatarelli could very well win this.

Moreover, Bergen dumpoff has Ciatarelli leading by 55-45.

If this happens, to say the party will need to do some soul-searching is a massive understatement. Will be even worse than the GOP losses in 2017.

To be fair, I was among the first (if not the first) to say it will be a closer race than expected. I said it will be 4-6 point win for Murphy, when every other NJ people were saying 8-12 point win, but even then, I never felt Ciatarelli was out of striking distance.

This is why Democrats really need to wake up. They are in trouble and always lose their guard after a win (2020).

[Alben Barkley]

All eyes should be on this race now, I'm shocked the thread isn't blowing up. There's a very real shot of an upset now. A much bigger and more unexpected one than in VA.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I'm not sure if any of these have VBM #s included.

Middlesex is certainly the early vote. No way is Murphy winning there by 26.

He's up 13 in Middlesex right now

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Whether Ciattarelli wins or not, I think a lot of people were underestimating the quiet rage much of the state felt at Murphy's handling of Covid, especially business owners.

[wbrocks67]

It doesn't appear we have any answers as to whether the VBM has been counted yet.

[CookieDamage]

It doesn't appear we have any answers as to whether the VBM has been counted yet.

Exactly, if they haven't this is all a red mirage.

[kwabbit]

It doesn't appear we have any answers as to whether the VBM has been counted yet.

It definitely hasn't. Mail ballots weren't even due until today, those will probably pad Murphy's margin a bit in the end.

[Alben Barkley]

I mean the ad was kinda spammy and annoying but Murphy saying NJ's not your state if you don't like high taxes is probably not the best statement.

He actually said that?

[CookieDamage]

It doesn't appear we have any answers as to whether the VBM has been counted yet.

It definitely hasn't. Mail ballots weren't even due until today, those will probably pad Murphy's margin a bit in the end.

Can we expect those to be counted and tabulated soon, or...?

[LimoLiberal]

Ciattarelli's margin up to 53,000 votes.

[wbrocks67]

Ciattarelli's margin up to 53,000 votes.

Yes, this is a bit of a red mirage. All of the election day votes are being added in right now.

It doesn't appear any of the VBM have been added in, those were like D+40 based on party.

[DrScholl]

Ciattarelli's margin up to 53,000 votes.

Yes, this is a bit of a red mirage. All of the election day votes are being added in right now.

It doesn't appear any of the VBM have been added in, those were like D+40 based on party.

Don't push this woke garbage! The Republican is going to win and it's racist against white people to say otherwise!