NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Senator Incitatus]

Very early still and Murphy not looking good; feels like an even smaller win than I expected.

My original prediction was that Ciattarelli would win the Hugin counties plus possibly Cumberland and unlikely Somerset. I still feel good about that but Somerset is probably going to be close.

[Bootes Void]

Any chance of an upset here or is that too unlikely?

[DrScholl]

The biggest GOP counties are counting their votes faster while the big Democratic counties are not reporting as much. That tells you quite a lot about where this is headed.

[CookieDamage]

Any chance of an upset here or is that too unlikely?

I still think it's not very likely since we have so little of Essex, Bergen, Hudson, and Union out

[Pollster]

Interestingly, multiple GOP incumbents in the state Senate are currently trailing their Dem opponents, and a couple are barely leading.

[LabourJersey]

Any chance of an upset here or is that too unlikely?

I still think it's not very likely since we have so little of Essex, Bergen, Hudson, and Union out

Yeah, the large Dem counties are still out.

[wbrocks67]

The biggest GOP counties are counting their votes faster while the big Democratic counties are not reporting as much. That tells you quite a lot about where this is headed.

Yep. Most of the red counties are nearly done counting, at least their E-day vote. Most blue counties still have huge % outstanding.

Have no idea what is in though, in terms of e-day, mail, and early.

[Bismarck]

What’s going on in Cape May County? I thought it was solid R but it’s D with 100% in?

[LimoLiberal]

He could legitimately lose. He's doing terrible in Gloucester and Ocean.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

What’s going on in Cape May County? I thought it was solid R but it’s D with 100% in?

I read somewhere it's likely a system glitch.  But don't quote me on dat. 

[PSOL]

Huh, another mainstream, Pharma-bought candidate underperforming massively.

This is what happens when a party locks out progressives meaningfully from power on a local level, as “moderate” governance is not good governance.

[Alben Barkley]

So Murphy has lost the lead... not panicking yet given where the votes are. But I think it's pretty obvious that Murphy will at least underperform significantly. More evidence that there would a national red wave in this environment.

[CookieDamage]

What’s going on in Cape May County? I thought it was solid R but it’s D with 100% in?

I read somewhere it's likely a system glitch.  But don't quote me on dat. 

It must be considering that it's WAY below 2017 turnout.

[lfromnj]

If Cape may is early vote then the remaining votes should be like 80% R or so. Dems still have most of Essex/Hudson out.

Rs have Cape May remaining R votes, Sussex, Middlesex remaining votes should be fairly R.

[CookieDamage]

Huh, another mainstream, Pharma-bought candidate underperforming massively.

This is what happens when a party locks out progressives meaningfully from power on a local level, as “moderate” governance is not good governance.

Murphy literally one of the most progressive governors out there, stop it.

[Torie]

Dan and I voted for Murphy. We voted for the most left wing candidates up and down the ballot, locally for folks I truly admire and share beers with. I told Dan that I would never imagine that I would come to this place. But I seek out and embrace the delta function. So if Murphy wins by two votes, the Torie saga/dementia did it. But Murphy is going to win by more than two votes.

The Hudson County vote is  under  represented so far in NJ. Hudson County, Hudson City, both on the Hudson River, all roads lead to Hudson from this quarter.

[wbrocks67]

Some of the blue counties are reporting next to nothing.

Bergen, which had Murphy +15 in 2017 with 200K+ votes is reporting... 2,000 votes right now.

[Nyvin]

Some of the blue counties are reporting next to nothing.

Bergen, which had Murphy +15 in 2017 with 200K+ votes is reporting... 2,000 votes right now.

What's left in Essex, Hudson, and Bergen alone makes it near certain Murphy wins.

[LimoLiberal]

Some of the blue counties are reporting next to nothing.

Bergen, which had Murphy +15 in 2017 with 200K+ votes is reporting... 2,000 votes right now.

But what if Ciattarelli wins Bergen...

[Vespucci]

Some of the blue counties are reporting next to nothing.

Bergen, which had Murphy +15 in 2017 with 200K+ votes is reporting... 2,000 votes right now.

But what if Ciattarelli wins Bergen...

smh limo i though you had gotten better

[DrScholl]

Some of the blue counties are reporting next to nothing.

Bergen, which had Murphy +15 in 2017 with 200K+ votes is reporting... 2,000 votes right now.

But what if Ciattarelli wins Bergen...

Trolling.

[Mr. Smith]

Huh, another mainstream, Pharma-bought candidate underperforming massively.

This is what happens when a party locks out progressives meaningfully from power on a local level, as “moderate” governance is not good governance.

In reference to Murphy, he was actually more Bernie-like than Biden-like, and if he still wins while T-Mac loses, it ought be evidence.

In reference to NJ Dems who got cold-feet and blocked a lot of sh^%, you might be onto something.

[CookieDamage]

Ciatarelli lead bolstered by the fact only Monmouth and Ocean are (nearly) done counting. Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Union are barely starting, and Camden is only at 50% with Burlington barely starting as well.

[lfromnj]

I mean it seems like Murphy is barely going to net anything out of Bergen but Union/Essex/Hudson are still out.

[kwabbit]

Will Youngkin's margin exceed Murphy's? An open question. Ciatarelli is massively exceeding Trump in typical Jersey moderate R fashion. +18 over Trump in Monmouth, +17 in Hunterdon. Not enough for him to win, but embarrassingly close for Murphy.