2020: Donald Trump vs Joe Biden (State by State: Missouri)

[😥]

Safe D (Biden) 201 EVs
Likely D (Biden) 15 EVs
Tilt/Lean R (Trump) 11 EVs
Safe R (Trump) 103 EVs + MT (3 EVs)

Biden: 216
Trump: 117

[Politician]

Safe R. I don't know why you think Biden would win a landslide.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean D because Biden is a WWC hero who will carry MO/AR/KY/OH while losing VA and CO

[Frenchrepublican]

More seriously MO is safe R

Biden will lose it 41/58

[redjohn]

Safe R. In last year's blue wave, House Republicans beat Dems in Missouri by over 12 points. Joe would probably receive one of the better margins here, but he's not going to come close to winning.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Safe R, Trump wins it by somewhere between 10 and 15 points.

[User155815470020]

I voted "tilt R" and as of right now appear to be the only one who thinks MO is anything but "likely R" or "safe R." Obama/Biden overperformed in MO in 2008, nearly winning the state, and MO remains one of the midwestern red states where Democrats have been able to win national office in certain circumstances (Governor Jay Nixon, Senator Claire MCCaskill). "Tilt R" suggests Trump is favored, but whether the Democratic candidate is Biden or Sanders, I do not expect it to be a landslide for Trump.

[S019]

Safe R

[Xing]

Titanium R. It's not 2000 anymore.

[User155815470020]

Titanium R. It's not 2000 anymore.

Do you mean "it's not 2008 anymore," because MO was competitive for the Democrats as recently as then.

[Frenchrepublican]

I voted "tilt R" and as of right now appear to be the only one who thinks MO is anything but "likely R" or "safe R." Obama/Biden overperformed in MO in 2008, nearly winning the state, and MO remains one of the midwestern red states where Democrats have been able to win national office in certain circumstances (Governor Jay Nixon, Senator Claire MCCaskill). "Tilt R" suggests Trump is favored, but whether the Democratic candidate is Biden or Sanders, I do not expect it to be a landslide for Trump.

Hawley won 51% against a incumbent Senator who spent 40 millions dollars in his re-election bid, and all of that despite a democratic wave.

What are you smoking ?

[Suburbia]

Lean R. Biden can make it competitive.

[pbrower2a]

Lean R. Missouri goes to any Democrat only in a 400-plus landslide in the Electoral College. I see Texas going for the Democrat before Missouri.

[S019]

I voted "tilt R" and as of right now appear to be the only one who thinks MO is anything but "likely R" or "safe R." Obama/Biden overperformed in MO in 2008, nearly winning the state, and MO remains one of the midwestern red states where Democrats have been able to win national office in certain circumstances (Governor Jay Nixon, Senator Claire MCCaskill). "Tilt R" suggests Trump is favored, but whether the Democratic candidate is Biden or Sanders, I do not expect it to be a landslide for Trump. A Trump win of 52% or less makes sense to me.

MO has been zooming right since 2000, in there straight elections (2000, 2004, and 2008), it was considered a tossup, here are the PV's for those years (D+0.5, R+2.4, D+7.3) Now consider, the PV moved 2.9 points right, Missouri swung 3.86 points to the right, when the PV moved 9.7 points left, Missouri swung 7.06 points to the left, in 2012 the PV was D+3.9, so the nation swung 3.4 points to the right, but Missouri swung 9.48 points to the right, in 2016, the PV was D+2.1, so the nation swung 1.8 points to the right, but Missouri swung 9.08 points to the right, in all of these elections MO voted to the right of the nation, and note how around 2012, Missouri begins swinging much more to the right. Claire McCaskill's loss was the icing on the cake of Missouri's transformation into a Safe R state, also in 2022, Nicole Gallaway is is in big trouble, if she loses, MO will have gone from a swing state to completely red in a little over a decade

[cvparty]

tossup because WWC hero and running mate obama almost won it in 2008

[Yellowhammer]

Tossup/Tilt D because all Democratic trends are permanent, and all republican trends are temporary. /s

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Lean R. Biden can make it competitive.

No he can't, this isn't 2000-2008 anymore.

[User155815470020]

I voted "tilt R" and as of right now appear to be the only one who thinks MO is anything but "likely R" or "safe R." Obama/Biden overperformed in MO in 2008, nearly winning the state, and MO remains one of the midwestern red states where Democrats have been able to win national office in certain circumstances (Governor Jay Nixon, Senator Claire MCCaskill). "Tilt R" suggests Trump is favored, but whether the Democratic candidate is Biden or Sanders, I do not expect it to be a landslide for Trump. A Trump win of 52% or less makes sense to me.

MO has been zooming right since 2000, in there straight elections (2000, 2004, and 2008), it was considered a tossup, here are the PV's for those years (D+0.5, R+2.4, D+7.3) Now consider, the PV moved 2.9 points right, Missouri swung 3.86 points to the right, when the PV moved 9.7 points left, Missouri swung 7.06 points to the left, in 2012 the PV was D+3.9, so the nation swung 3.4 points to the right, but Missouri swung 9.48 points to the right, in 2016, the PV was D+2.1, so the nation swung 1.8 points to the right, but Missouri swung 9.08 points to the right, in all of these elections MO voted to the right of the nation, and note how around 2012, Missouri begins swinging much more to the right. Claire McCaskill's loss was the icing on the cake of Missouri's transformation into a Safe R state, also in 2022, Nicole Gallaway is is in big trouble, if she loses, MO will have gone from a swing state to completely red in a little over a decade

Thank you for your respectful and thorough rebuttal and analysis. I always like to learn information such as this.

[Yang2020]

Barring an economic meltdown worse than the one in 2008, this is Safe R.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Safe R (The ratings in my signature are very much out of date)

[morgieb]

Tossup, because the Kenyan Muslim nearly won here.

[SN2903]

Safe R. Dumb question. Trump wins by 20+

[Podgy the Bear]

Probably reverts back to Obama-Romney, a 10-12 point win for Trump.  Missouri is gone for the Democrats, presumably forever.

[JGibson]

Safe R's the only correct answer here.