Rate SC's Congressional Seats

[Yang2020]

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[S019]

Likely R, and that's generous to Cunningham, he will lose by double digits, and I will be eating popcorn, watching it happen

[Yang2020]

Likely R, and that's generous to Cunningham, he will lose by double digits, and I will be eating popcorn, watching it happen

What makes you so certain he'll lose by double-digits, if at all?

[DaWN]

Cunningham is in the same boat as Horn: D-trending but still pretty Republican district. He'll probably lose but I doubt it'll be double digits, more like mid-to-high singles.

[MT Treasurer]

Lean R, more vulnerable than Horn but not DOA either.

[Frenchrepublican]

Tilt R.

Cunningham is the underdog but not by that much as the district is trending D. I don't understand why Cunningham is not trying to build a more moderate image (he voted for the gun control bill) in order to run as a moderate/conservative traditionnal D.

[😥]

Tossup, closer to Tilt R

[Tekken_Guy]

Tilt R. Cunningham only won because of an anti-Arrington backlash from Sanford’s supporters. Also, can you change the title of the thread to make it about SC-1?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tilt R.

Cunningham is the underdog but not by that much as the district is trending D. I don't understand why Cunningham is not trying to build a more moderate image (he voted for the gun control bill) in order to run as a moderate/conservative traditionnal D.

Because that playbook is old.

[PAK Man]

I wish there was a pure tossup item on these polls, because it's impossible to assess how endangered he is a year and a half out from the election. You can't possibly predict that he'll lose by double digits when there is nothing indicating that.

[Frenchrepublican]

Tilt R.

Cunningham is the underdog but not by that much as the district is trending D. I don't understand why Cunningham is not trying to build a more moderate image (he voted for the gun control bill) in order to run as a moderate/conservative traditionnal D.

Because that playbook is old.

When you run in a district Trump won by 10 that’s a smart strategy

[Yellowhammer]

Strong Lean R.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tilt R.

Cunningham is the underdog but not by that much as the district is trending D. I don't understand why Cunningham is not trying to build a more moderate image (he voted for the gun control bill) in order to run as a moderate/conservative traditionnal D.

Because that playbook is old.

When you run in a district Trump won by 10 that’s a smart strategy

This isn't the 90's. Suburban White Republicans and Independents across this country voted for Democrats knowing full well where they stand on gun control.

[Frenchrepublican]

Tilt R.

Cunningham is the underdog but not by that much as the district is trending D. I don't understand why Cunningham is not trying to build a more moderate image (he voted for the gun control bill) in order to run as a moderate/conservative traditionnal D.

Because that playbook is old.

When you run in a district Trump won by 10 that’s a smart strategy

This isn't the 90's. Suburban White Republicans and Independents across this country voted for Democrats knowing full well where they stand on gun control.

The thing is that when you are running as a D in a conservative district you need to show some independence, otherwise you will be defeated. Cunningham must distance himself from progressive democrats, but voting for a gun control bill won’t make this work easier

[Xing]

SC-01 (the only district that is competitive) is Lean R. Peterson is more vulnerable, and perhaps Brindisi is as well, but Cunningham will have a very hard time holding on.

[libertpaulian]

Tilt R.

Cunningham is the underdog but not by that much as the district is trending D. I don't understand why Cunningham is not trying to build a more moderate image (he voted for the gun control bill) in order to run as a moderate/conservative traditionnal D.

Because that playbook is old.

When you run in a district Trump won by 10 that’s a smart strategy

This isn't the 90's. Suburban White Republicans and Independents across this country voted for Democrats knowing full well where they stand on gun control.

The thing is that when you are running as a D in a conservative district you need to show some independence, otherwise you will be defeated. Cunningham must distance himself from progressive democrats, but voting for a gun control bill won’t make this work easier

Eh, I think he'll be able to skate by on voting for expanded background checks.

Now, if he votes for an assault weapon ban, then yes...he'll be more endangered than Horn.

[beesley]

Tilt R. Cunningham is in a tough fight but he's got some strengths. McMaster only won this by 4 points so there must be something good here for him.

[Frenchrepublican]

Tilt R. Cunningham is in a tough fight but he's got some strengths. McMaster only won this by 4 points so there must be something good here for him.

McMaster won the district by six if I'm remember well

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm going to be an outlier and vote Lean D.

First off, I think the Republicans are likely to shoot themselves in the foot in the primary again. If anything, the primary will swing further right compared to 2018 because moderates who voted for Sanford won't have a reason to participate.

Second, the trendline is D.

Third, I expect the economy is going to weaken between now and election day which will generally help Democrats, but whether it's a little or a lot will depend on how much it weakens.

Last but not least, the district is heavily dependent upon trade and Trump is doing his best to stop it. I expect Cunningham to be able to point to job losses in the district directly resulting from Trump's trade war.

That said, if Cunningham does manage a second term, he'll be toast in the 2022 midterms unless something unexpected happens.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Tilt R

[Sestak]

Tossup, closer to Lean R than D.

[OneJ]

Likely R, and that's generous to Cunningham, he will lose by double digits, and I will be eating popcorn, watching it happen

This level of complacency is not good at all.

But yeah, Tilt D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean R, but loses by 4-5 not double digits haha wtf

[We Live in Black and White]

In the vicinity of Tilt to Lean R. Cunningham is inherently in a worse position than Horn on account of the fact that he very narrowly beat a very bad candidate, as opposed to Horn's narrow victory over a completely uncontroversial incumbent. The GOP probably has us here if they run a scandal-free newcomer (State Senator Sandy Senn, for instance), but could easily blow it if they redux Sanford or Arrington.