Rate NC-Sen (Spring 2019)

[Orser67]

Rate the 2020 Senate election in North Carolina. The poll closes in June, so it will be a snapshot into what Atlas thought in Spring 2019.

Previous polls: AL, AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS/KY, ME, MI, MN, MS/MT, NH, NM/VA

Map so far:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R until Jackson gets in

[Xing]

Tilt R for now.

[MT Treasurer]

I think this might end up being the closest Senate race of 2020. My gut tells me that it will be a NC-GOV 2016 redux, so Tilt D and not Tilt R. It doesn’t help that Tillis is a weak incumbent who really can’t afford to underperform Trump by more than 1-2%.

[S019]

Tilt R, Jackson is overrated and Erskine Bowles quality, he is not Kay Hagan, and Tillis toppled Hagan, who was a strong incumbent. Also, polarization, polarization, polarization. Trump drags Tillis over the finish line

[MT Treasurer]

Tilt R, Jackson is overrated and Erskine Bowles quality, he is not Kay Hagan, and Tillis toppled Hagan, who was a strong incumbent. Also, polarization, polarization, polarization. Trump drags Tillis over the finish line

I think I can see what you’re doing here.

[S019]

Tilt R, Jackson is overrated and Erskine Bowles quality, he is not Kay Hagan, and Tillis toppled Hagan, who was a strong incumbent. Also, polarization, polarization, polarization. Trump drags Tillis over the finish line

I think I can see what you’re doing here.

Also, since you are an expert on MT politics, does Cooney win next year, you think that red States elect down-ballot Democrats, that's fading and NC like WI is a polarized state, also Tillis did not ahve to deal with a transgender bathroom bill that sent businesses out of the state, nor is he facing a popular attorney general, who has been in office since the 2001, does anyone in NC even know who Jeff Jackson is, obviously we do, because we are passionate about politics, but does your everyday North Carolinian know, plus there is always the possibility he underperforms a la Deborah Ross,

[Gracile]

NC is probably the purest tossup in the Senate.

Tillis underperformed in a Romney state in 2014, and it is possible that he could run behind Trump in 2020. Jeff Jackson seems like a good candidate on paper. I think he could appeal to many of NC's demographics, so his entry alone would make the race competitive.
 
With that said, I can't help but feel like Tillis could end up becoming the Ron Johnson of 2020 (a conservative incumbent who does poorly in terms of polling and general expectations against a top D recruit but ends up winning on election night with help from the presidential ticket and a favorable national environment).

[Pericles]

Tossup but very slightly tilt R over tilt D, I expect this to be very competitive.

[😥]

Tossup, closer to Tilt D, than Tilt R

[Mr. Smith]

Pure Toss-up, unless Biden is nominated and inevitably pulls a Mitt Romney and drags whomever down.

[Frenchrepublican]

NC is probably the purest tossup in the Senate.

Tillis underperformed in a Romney state in 2014, and it is possible that he could run behind Trump in 2020. Jeff Jackson seems like a good candidate on paper. I think he could appeal to many of NC's demographics, so his entry alone would make the race competitive.
 
With that said, I can't help but feel like Tillis could end up becoming the Ron Johnson of 2020 (a conservative incumbent who does poorly in terms of polling and general expectations against a top D recruit but ends up winning on election night with help from the presidential ticket and a favorable national environment).

1. Tillis underperformed Romney because he was facing an incumbent Senator. Incumbency is still worth a few points and it likely helped Hagan a bit.
2. Jackson is a liberal state senator from Charlotte, his appeal will be fairly limited outside of minorities and white progressives areas

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean R
Tillis will likely be re-elected as long Trump carries the state. Tillis wins 51/48 in the end

[Vern]

Toss-up until we know who is running.

[Frenchrepublican]

NC is probably the purest tossup in the Senate.

Tillis underperformed in a Romney state in 2014, and it is possible that he could run behind Trump in 2020. Jeff Jackson seems like a good candidate on paper. I think he could appeal to many of NC's demographics, so his entry alone would make the race competitive.
 
With that said, I can't help but feel like Tillis could end up becoming the Ron Johnson of 2020 (a conservative incumbent who does poorly in terms of polling and general expectations against a top D recruit but ends up winning on election night with help from the presidential ticket and a favorable national environment).

1. Tillis underperformed Romney because he was facing an incumbent Senator. Incumbency is still worth a few points and it likely helped Hagan a bit.
2. Jackson is a liberal state senator from Charlotte, his appeal will be fairly limited outside of minorities and white progressives areas

Kander was a staunch liberal from Kansas City and he did incredibly well. Voters don’t care about ideology if you can overcome that with personality, a nice haircut, or if they think you are bangable.

Yeah, but :
1. MO is traditionnaly more elastic than NC.
2. Kander was a statewide officeholder before his senatorial run (Jackson is unknown outside of Charlotte)
2. Blunt did not take Kander seriously until september 2016