Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump - State by State: Colorado

[Senator Spark]

Safe D: 183 EVs
Lean R: 11 EVs
Safe R: 125 EVs

Similar to ElectionsGuy's threads, I will be starting a tracking of state by state match-ups for Trump vs Sanders. I will only be polling the swing states since a majority of states are already safe.

We will start in alphabetical order and the results should be complete in about a week.

[Senator Spark]

I'm going to go with Likely D. Trump probably is going to lose even more ground in the suburbs and has done a lot to antagonize the Latino population. D wins between 5-7%.

[User155815470020]

If Trump flips NH, MN, and NV in 2020 (not impossible, but not likely), CO will join.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Safe D: 183 EVs
Lean R: 11 EVs
Safe R: 125 EVs

Similar to ElectionsGuy's threads, I will be starting a tracking of state by state match-ups for Trump vs Sanders. I will only be polling the swing states since a majority of states are already safe.

We will start in alphabetical order and the results should be complete in about a week.

Arizona's not a swing state but Texas and Ohio/Iowa are?

[Frenchrepublican]

Likely D. Colorado is now a democratic state. It's gone.
Sanders wins 52/45. Rural areas shift a bit to the right but suburbs continue their long-term trend toward Democrats.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean D

[TDAS04]

Likely D.

[DrScholl]

If Trump flips NH, MN, and NV in 2020 (not impossible, but not likely), CO will join.

I'm not sure which moderator forward inappropriate private messages to, but this poster sent me a message that said "Die in a fire".

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Likely D.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Likely D.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Barring a bloodbath primary and some truly horrible gaffe (something I don't think we've seen out of Sanders yet) this is Safe D.

CO's base is so incredibly favorable to Sanders. Tons of young, college educated people (i.e., people more likely to vote) who highly value the environment (which correlates very highly to liberal voting tendencies). Lots of affluent and performatively woke liberals in ski towns. Even the relatively large industries in town (aside from energy) are tech - these voters aren't really typical chamber of commerce conservatives - they like everybody else flooding metro Denver match the profile of a liberal voter.

The "Adams/Jeff/Arapahoe county suburbanites won't vote for a socialist" candidate isn't supported by  recent evidence at all.

- These counties voted overwhelmingly for Clinton
- These counties voted overwhelmingly for Jared Polis, an incredibly more progressive candidate than Hickenlooper
- Progressive Joe Neguse won CO-02 with ease (including most of JeffCo)
- Democrats made pretty substantial gains in Denver Metro in the State House and Senate in 2018
- These counties (and the state at large) voted overwhelmingly for Bernie in the 2016 primaries (not that primaries are totally predictive of overall vote but still consistent with all other evidence)

Honestly it's more likely that Biden would lose Colorado than Bernie although both would win without ever setting foot in the state.

[Politician]

Barring a bloodbath primary and some truly horrible gaffe (something I don't think we've seen out of Sanders yet) this is Safe D.

CO's base is so incredibly favorable to Sanders. Tons of young, college educated people (i.e., people more likely to vote) who highly value the environment (which correlates very highly to liberal voting tendencies). Lots of affluent and performatively woke liberals in ski towns. Even the relatively large industries in town (aside from energy) are tech - these voters aren't really the chamber of commerce

The "Adams/Jeff/Arapahoe county suburbanites won't vote for a socialist" candidate isn't supported by  recent evidence at all.

- These counties voted overwhelmingly for Clinton
- These counties voted overwhelmingly for Jared Polis, an incredibly more progressive candidate than Hickenlooper
- Progressive Joe Neguse won CO-02 with ease (including most of JeffCo)
- Democrats made pretty substantial gains in Denver Metro in the State House and Senate in 2018
- These counties (and the state at large) voted overwhelmingly for Bernie in the 2016 primaries (not that primaries are totally predictive of overall vote but still consistent with all other evidence)

Honestly it's more likely that Biden would lose Colorado than Bernie although both would win without ever setting foot in the state.

Adams County is a bad example of wealthy D-trending suburbs tbh as it actually swung 8% towards Trump and is ancestrally Democratic.

[😥]

Likely D.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean. I'll probably change it to Safe if the Democratic primary goes decently and an appealing candidate gets the nomination. I really hope Trump wastes money here.

[S019]

Lean D, closer to Likely than Tossup

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Barring a bloodbath primary and some truly horrible gaffe (something I don't think we've seen out of Sanders yet) this is Safe D.

CO's base is so incredibly favorable to Sanders. Tons of young, college educated people (i.e., people more likely to vote) who highly value the environment (which correlates very highly to liberal voting tendencies). Lots of affluent and performatively woke liberals in ski towns. Even the relatively large industries in town (aside from energy) are tech - these voters aren't really the chamber of commerce

The "Adams/Jeff/Arapahoe county suburbanites won't vote for a socialist" candidate isn't supported by  recent evidence at all.

- These counties voted overwhelmingly for Clinton
- These counties voted overwhelmingly for Jared Polis, an incredibly more progressive candidate than Hickenlooper
- Progressive Joe Neguse won CO-02 with ease (including most of JeffCo)
- Democrats made pretty substantial gains in Denver Metro in the State House and Senate in 2018
- These counties (and the state at large) voted overwhelmingly for Bernie in the 2016 primaries (not that primaries are totally predictive of overall vote but still consistent with all other evidence)

Honestly it's more likely that Biden would lose Colorado than Bernie although both would win without ever setting foot in the state.

Adams County is a bad example of wealthy D-trending suburbs tbh as it actually swung 8% towards Trump and is ancestrally Democratic.

But I have been told that 2016 trends are not permanent?

Even so you can see the solid base of support in the (populated) Western knob of the county. I had a good coleg map from last year but I've lost it but here's a map from Perlmutter's race in 2016:



Thornton, Westminster and Commerce are growing pretty quickly - not the most progressive places on earth but no reason to see these people voting for Trump over Sanders (or staying home).

Adams also voted for Polis by the same margins that Jefferson and Arapahoe did.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D