Rate CO-Sen (Spring 2019)

[Orser67]

Rate Colorado's Senate race. The poll closes in June, so it will be a snapshot into what Atlas thought in Spring 2019.

Previous polls: AL, AZ

[S019]

Tilt D, Gardner loses by 2-3, and could certainly beat a weak candidate, **cough** **cough** Neguse **cough** **cough**, I don't buy that he's DOA and will likely outperform Trump by several points, but there's only so much that he can do, and he will fall short. This is the only seat that I think currently the Democrats will flip. Maybe I'm bullish on Gardner, but i think it's likelier that Gardner wins than McSally loses, but we'll see

[DaWN]

Likely D. He loses unless he pulls a really bad opponent (I mean Todd Akin (D) or something like that) or there's a huge red wave. The R hacks insisting this is an Ultra Competitive Tossup Race^TM would be declaring a Democratic incumbent with a crappy approval rating and no distinction from the national party in an Trump+5 R-trending state DOA, and with good reason.

[Greedo punched first]

Lean D

[pppolitics]

Likely D

Cory Gardner has about as much chance at reelection as Mark Pryor had in 2014

[S019]

Likely D

Cory Gardner has about as much chance at reelection as Mark Pryor had in 2014

Which was actually quite high, until he became obsessed with abortion and personhood bills and was dubbed Mark "Uterus" Udall

[Roll Roons]

Likely D

Cory Gardner has about as much chance at reelection as Mark Pryor had in 2014

Which was actually quite high, until he became obsessed with abortion and personhood bills and was dubbed Mark "Uterus" Udall

Pryor, not Udall. Pryor was in Arkansas, and really couldn't have done much to save himself from the Blanching he got.

[S019]

Likely D

Cory Gardner has about as much chance at reelection as Mark Pryor had in 2014

Which was actually quite high, until he became obsessed with abortion and personhood bills and was dubbed Mark "Uterus" Udall

Pryor, not Udall. Pryor was in Arkansas, and really couldn't have done much to save himself from the Blanching he got.

Umm, he could have voted against Obamacare and endorsed Mitt Romney, that could have saved him, also comparing AR to CO is like comparing OH to NJ, it is not a good comparison

[Canis]

Likely D

Cory Gardner has about as much chance at reelection as Mark Pryor had in 2014

Which was actually quite high, until he became obsessed with abortion and personhood bills and was dubbed Mark "Uterus" Udall

Pryor, not Udall. Pryor was in Arkansas, and really couldn't have done much to save himself from the Blanching he got.

Umm, he could have voted against Obamacare and endorsed Mitt Romney, that could have saved him, also comparing AR to CO is like comparing OH to NJ, it is not a good comparison

Could you imagine what would happen if a republican senator voted for obamacare and endorsed obama they would have been thrown out of the party and if they somehow remained their base would not turnout for them or they would get primaried and lose in a massive landslide same thing would have happened to pryor

[SnowLabrador]

Lean D. Democrats would be foolish to take this race for granted. Gardner's a very strong fundraiser, but he is an underdog.

[here2view]

Likely D, and closer to Safe than Lean. Trump will lose Colorado by at least 5% like in 2016, and there's not going to be more than 5% of CO voters who vote for Gardner and the Democratic candidate.

He's not Susan Collins, and anyone Republican who thinks that this race is a tossup is delusional.

[lfromnj]

Likely D, and closer to Safe than Lean. Trump will lose Colorado by at least 5% like in 2016, and there's not going to be more than 5% of CO voters who vote for him and the Democratic candidate.

He's not Susan Collins, and anyone Republican who thinks that this race is a tossup is delusional.

FYI in that scenario he doesn't need 5%. He needs 2.5% of voters to be swing.

[here2view]

Likely D, and closer to Safe than Lean. Trump will lose Colorado by at least 5% like in 2016, and there's not going to be more than 5% of CO voters who vote for him and the Democratic candidate.

He's not Susan Collins, and anyone Republican who thinks that this race is a tossup is delusional.

FYI in that scenario he doesn't need 5%. He needs 2.5% of voters to be swing.

That's true, thanks for correcting me. Even then I don't see it happening.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean D, loses 51-47.

[Orser67]

I really went back and forth between Lean D and Likely D, but ultimately went with Likely D. For most of the 2016 cycle, I took Ron Johnson's defeat for granted, and I don't want to do something like that again. But CO is a pretty Democratic state that may well trend even more to the left, and Gardner is an unremarkable one-term incumbent who doesn't have particularly strong approval ratings (at least according to a cursory Google search).

[Xing]

Somewhere between Lean and Likely D, but assuming it’s not a red wave, definitely closer to Likely D.

[coloradocowboi]

I'm not usually bullish like this but Safe D. Gardner has mismanaged his image. Only a moderate R can win now in CO, and that's not him

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean D, closer to likely.

Gardner will probably outperform the orange clown but still lose to any decent Dem candidate. My guess is he'll lose 45-51% while Trump loses the state 42-53%.

[😥]

Likely D, closer to Safe D than Lean D

[UncleSam]

Colorado isn’t a Likely D state at the presidential level so why would this be Likely D? Trump lose by 5 in 2016 and there’s no reason to think he will do worse than that unless he is doing worse nationally.

Anyway Gardner probably won’t outrun him by much, and will probably lose a tightish race like Heller did. However declaring an incumbent in a Lean state for the other party as likely gone (or safe lol) is silly so far out. He may well end up losing by ten, but he is probably equally likely to pull out a narrow win - there’s just a huge range of possibilities so far out.

[Skunk]

Colorado isn’t a Likely D state at the presidential level so why would this be Likely D? Trump lose by 5 in 2016 and there’s no reason to think he will do worse than that unless he is doing worse nationally.

Anyway Gardner probably won’t outrun him by much, and will probably lose a tightish race like Heller did. However declaring an incumbent in a Lean state for the other party as likely gone (or safe lol) is silly so far out. He may well end up losing by ten, but he is probably equally likely to pull out a narrow win - there’s just a huge range of possibilities so far out.

Lol yeah it is

[scutosaurus]

Colorado isn’t a Likely D state at the presidential level so why would this be Likely D? Trump lose by 5 in 2016 and there’s no reason to think he will do worse than that unless he is doing worse nationally.

Anyway Gardner probably won’t outrun him by much, and will probably lose a tightish race like Heller did. However declaring an incumbent in a Lean state for the other party as likely gone (or safe lol) is silly so far out. He may well end up losing by ten, but he is probably equally likely to pull out a narrow win - there’s just a huge range of possibilities so far out.

That's correct, because it's Safe D.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean D
Trump will likely lose CO by a 45/53 margin in 2020 to the D nominee. Gardner will almost certainely do better but it won’t be enough unless the D candidate is really flawed

[ElectionsGuy]

Gardner is an underdog incumbent in a state that the Republican party is not in good shape in, but he's also massively underrated. He should overperform Trump by a few points but probably won't be enough to save him. Atlas Democrats are hypocrites for calling this Safe D or anything close to it. Never would a Democratic incumbent in a reddish state be declared DOA.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Very Likely D, bordering on safe. Gardner's goose is cooked unless 2020 ends up being a red wave or his opponent ends up being a pedophile/murderer.