Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[pbrower2a]

We could use some good science writing on this. Maybe we are going to see a pattern in which people's dwellings reflect when the last good time in their lives was, as the career patterns might allow people only one good decade or so and the rest be awful. So one rides a technological tide for a decade or so and then when that tide breaks, so does that person economically -- and things never go well again. It looks like a job for someone like Isaac Asimov who is no longer available, for obvious reasons.

Thus in the distant future (maybe around 2060) you will be able to look at someone's unfurnished apartment and see technology and furnishings typical of the 2020's, hear mass culture from the same time, and see clothing on the person that reek of the 2020's, and conclude that the 2020's were the last time that that person had things going sort-of-OK. Real antiques will be a rarity; most of the mass culture in all its manifestations will be so gaudy that it will be indefensible in later times.   

[Person Man]

We could use some good science writing on this. Maybe we are going to see a pattern in which people's dwellings reflect when the last good time in their lives was, as the career patterns might allow people only one good decade or so and the rest be awful. So one rides a technological tide for a decade or so and then when that tide breaks, so does that person economically -- and things never go well again. It looks like a job for someone like Isaac Asimov who is no longer available, for obvious reasons.

Thus in the distant future (maybe around 2060) you will be able to look at someone's unfurnished apartment and see technology and furnishings typical of the 2020's, hear mass culture from the same time, and see clothing on the person that reek of the 2020's, and conclude that the 2020's were the last time that that person had things going sort-of-OK. Real antiques will be a rarity; most of the mass culture in all its manifestations will be so gaudy that it will be indefensible in later times.   

Sounds like the Eastern Europe of the late 70s and 80s.

[Politician]

New Hampshire-Emerson

Disapprove 53
Approve 40

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-hampshire-2020-sanders-slips-in-new-hampshire-biden-warren-take-lead

[Person Man]

He’s not winning New Hampshire.

[pbrower2a]

Univision/University of Houston – Texas Statewide Poll, September 2019

Q3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

TOTAL APPROVE 44%  (29% strongly)
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 56% (36% strongly)

https://latinodecisions.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Univision-UH-Texas-crosstabs-Sept-2019.pdf

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Univision/University of Houston – Texas Statewide Poll, September 2019

Q3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

TOTAL APPROVE 44%  (29% strongly)
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 56% (36% strongly)

https://latinodecisions.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Univision-UH-Texas-crosstabs-Sept-2019.pdf

At this point, I think he's actually gonna lose Texas.

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire-Emerson

Disapprove 53
Approve 40

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-hampshire-2020-sanders-slips-in-new-hampshire-biden-warren-take-lead

Univision/University of Houston – Texas Statewide Poll, September 2019

Q3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

TOTAL APPROVE 44%  (29% strongly)
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 56% (36% strongly)

https://latinodecisions.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Univision-UH-Texas-crosstabs-Sept-2019.pdf

Trump supporters -- tell me how Trump wins with numbers like these, one of them in a state that would have had the 400th electoral vote for a Democrat in 2016.
 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Sep. 7-8, 1998 RV (2-week change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

[pbrower2a]

It will be interesting to see how the polling of Donald Trump goes after the disclosure that Air Force planes were obliged to refuel profitably (for Trump) at the airport for a Trump resort. Note the large area in gray; some states could be very interesting -- and I do not mean Illinois. Massachusetts, New Jersey, New mexico, and Washington.

Texas is becoming more like the US as a whole, and it is hard to see how any Republican could win the Presidential election without it.  

[President Johnson]

It's remarkable how little Trump's numbers move, no matter what he does. They're almost set in stone.

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

It's remarkable how little Trump's numbers move, no matter what he does. They're almost set in stone.

It was the same for Bush throughout 2004. His support and opposition were basically unmovable. After being re-elected, he dropped like a stone.

[Person Man]

It's remarkable how little Trump's numbers move, no matter what he does. They're almost set in stone.

It was the same for Bush throughout 2004. His support and opposition were basically unmovable. After being re-elected, he dropped like a stone.

If Trump is re-elected, it will probably happen here, too. It’s because persuadable voters are afraid of change and reasonable members of the other side are willing to admit that they were only behind him because of policy and will eventually admit he was a bad administrator. Persuadable voters will then go on to give someone different a chance.

If Trump wins, it will be very interesting to see how Pence’s ambitions clash with the end of the business cycle and the perceived weakness of the administration. His only roadmap to victory would be 1988. Then, Bush Sr. ran during a late cycle economy that was still pretty good, was perceived to be moderate and a congress stacked against him. Pence probably won’t have the good economy or the moderate reputation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's remarkable how little Trump's numbers move, no matter what he does. They're almost set in stone.

His average ratings don't move much, but they do move.  They dipped significantly during the government shutdown, then recovered.  Now they've been in a gradual decline for the last few weeks.  How long this lasts is an open question.

Now if you're talking about the Morning Consult numbers only, those do tend to be very stable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, Sep. 5-9, 1639 adults (prior poll Aug. 15-18)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

We now have recent ABC/Wapo, CNN, and Gallup polls all with Trump under 40.

Strongly approve 28 (-7) (change from April, they don't always include this)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+3)

Do you think Donald Trump deserves to be re-elected, or not?

Adults: 36/60
RV (n=1526): 39/58

[GP270watch]

 Hopefully Democrats over perform where these poll numbers are trending, like they did in 2018.

[ProudModerate2]

... We now have recent ABC/Wapo, CNN, and Gallup polls all with Trump under 40.

Hopefully it stays there, for the next 16 months.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's remarkable how little Trump's numbers move, no matter what he does. They're almost set in stone.

Apathy, polarization, and short-term memories are a deadly combination.

[pbrower2a]

CNN/SSRS, Sep. 5-9, 1639 adults (prior poll Aug. 15-18)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

We now have recent ABC/Wapo, CNN, and Gallup polls all with Trump under 40.

Strongly approve 28 (-7) (change from April, they don't always include this)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+3)

Do you think Donald Trump deserves to be re-elected, or not?

Adults: 36/60
RV (n=1526): 39/58

This is in the zone of the landslide loss for Trump in 2020.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, Sep. 5-8, 1317 adults including 1160 RV (change from mid-July)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+4)

RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: Quinnipiac, Sep. 4-9, 1410 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Definitely vote for Trump 35
Consider voting for Trump 14
Definitely not vote for Trump 48

This seems a little more realistic than the Univision/UH poll.

[Person Man]

Texas: Quinnipiac, Sep. 4-9, 1410 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Definitely vote for Trump 35
Consider voting for Trump 14
Definitely not vote for Trump 48

This seems a little more realistic than the Univision/UH poll.

Something tells me even in this sh**tshow and even in a stronger sh**tshow, Trump's ceiling is greater than 52% in Texas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: Quinnipiac, Sep. 4-9, 1410 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Definitely vote for Trump 35
Consider voting for Trump 14
Definitely not vote for Trump 48

This seems a little more realistic than the Univision/UH poll.

Something tells me even in this sh**tshow and even in a stronger sh**tshow, Trump's ceiling is greater than 52% in Texas.

Probably true.  It's also worth remembering that Quinnipiac has been somewhat D-friendly this cycle.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Sep. 8-10, 1500 adults including 1188 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

Generic D 40 (nc), Trump 35 (-2)

RV:

Approve 44 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Strongly approve 26 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+4)

Generic D 48 (+2), Trump 39 (-2)

GCB (RV only): D 49 (+3), R 38 (-3)

Last week's poll was quite R-friendly and looks like an outlier in hindsight.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Sep. 9-10, 1116 adults including 992 RV

Adults:

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-3)

RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-3)

[HisGrace]

Texas is changing. I would say Dems would be more likely to win in 2024 than 2020, but it is not outside the realm of possibility.