Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Bandit3 the Worker]

They refuse to strike Rasmussen from their lists soooo ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Hahaha, get a load of this, everyone! 538 actually gives this poll more weight than any other recent poll, even though there's a bunch of other polls that are newer and use a bigger sample size!

[Mike Thick]

Not to unskew, but... those numbers are quite a bit worse for Cooper than what other polls have reported

[pbrower2a]

PPP tends to have an R bias. Not much -- possibly over-caution by the Democrat who runs it, according to his story.

It could also be that the international scene is getting dicier, and such gives an initial gain in polling to the incumbent.

[ProudModerate2]

AP/NORC, June 13-19, 1116 adults

Approve 38
Disapprove 60

Was 38/61 last month.

Wow. Big spread there.
Here is the direct link to this poll: http://apnorc.org/PDFs/AP-NORC%20Omnibus%20June%202019/June%202019%20Topline_election_russia.pdf

538 does not grade NORC as a pollster.
How reliable are they? Does anyone have knowledge of them and their polling?

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP. This time, not done on behalf of a special-interest group:

North Carolina Closely Divided On Trump


 Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds that voters in the state are closely divided about the 2020 Presidential election. Donald Trump has a 46% approval rating, with 49% of voters disapproving of him. Trump did 6 points better in North Carolina than he did nationally in the 2016 Presidential election, so it's not surprising that his -3 net approval rating in the state is better than the -10 or so net approval he has nationally right now.

  In hypothetical match ups with the 5 leading Democratic candidates for President, Trump ranges from trailing by 3 points to leading by 3 points. Trump gets 46 or 47% regardless of the Democrat he's tested against, while the level of support for the Democrats fluctuates based on their name recognition. The two Democrats with leads over Trump are the best known- Joe Biden is up 49-46 on him and Bernie Sanders is up 48-47. Trump narrowly leads the lesser known Democrats- it's a 47-46 edge over Kamala Harris, a 48-46 one over Elizabeth Warren, and a 47-44 one over Pete Buttigieg. On average Trump leads the Democrats by 0.2%.

North Carolina was the second closest state in the country for President in both 2008 and 2012 and at least at this early stage seems like it could be headed for a similarly close outcome in this election cycle.  

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/PPP_Release_NC_62019.pdf

If you are Donald Trump you do not want North Carolina to be the second-closest state in the Presidential election... either way.

......................

Here is a real shocker. Louisiana rarely gets polled on Presidential races, and it went 58%-34% for Donald Trump in 2016.

Only 47% of voters polled approved of Trump’s performance while 46% disapproved.

Nationally, Trump averages a 45% approval rating.

Trump support had weakened in the last poll of Louisiana. Economic distress is real in Louisiana:

One possible reason: non-farm employment from January 2016, when Edwards took office, to April this year declined slightly from 1,986,800 to 1,983,400.  

The Democratic incumbent Governor looks reasonably safe.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/article_d9ba10d4-93a8-11e9-881b-33b6f24306e1.html

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, June 21-24, 1096 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 48 (-1)

Biden 55, Trump 45
Sanders 55, Trump 45
Warren 53, Trump 47
Buttigieg 52, Trump 48
Harris 52, Trump 48

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico weekly tracker, June 21-24, 1991 RV

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

[Person Man]

I wonder how the Iran thing is going to go. Are people thinking it was some sort of shrewd brinksmanship or just another childish game?

Are people thinking that Trump is actually "improving" or is this still just statistical noise? If Trump's standing is "improving", who is giving him credit for improving? Do people really just think they have more money now?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wonder how the Iran thing is going to go. Are people thinking it was some sort of shrewd brinksmanship or just another childish game?

Are people thinking that Trump is actually "improving" or is this still just statistical noise? If Trump's standing is "improving", who is giving him credit for improving? Do people really just think they have more money now?

I think it's just noise.  The 538 average has stayed in a very narrow range (with occasional blips) since the end of the government shutdown in February.

[pbrower2a]

I wonder how the Iran thing is going to go. Are people thinking it was some sort of shrewd brinksmanship or just another childish game?

Are people thinking that Trump is actually "improving" or is this still just statistical noise? If Trump's standing is "improving", who is giving him credit for improving? Do people really just think they have more money now?

It's still within the range of statistical noise. Trump eases off a folly and he gets a slight increase in approval. That's about right. Then he threatens to do something stupid, and down go his polling numbers. We see that often. It is his character.   

[Person Man]

I wonder how the Iran thing is going to go. Are people thinking it was some sort of shrewd brinksmanship or just another childish game?

Are people thinking that Trump is actually "improving" or is this still just statistical noise? If Trump's standing is "improving", who is giving him credit for improving? Do people really just think they have more money now?

It's still within the range of statistical noise. Trump eases off a folly and he gets a slight increase in approval. That's about right. Then he threatens to do something stupid, and down go his polling numbers. We see that often. It is his character.   

This Iran thing doesn't count or are people buying it?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Nobody except the media buys his Iran lies.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1143533467852058627

A majority of likely voters in a handful of swing states do not support an American military strike on Iran despite escalating tensions, according to a new poll commissioned by a pair of veterans groups, liberal-leaning VoteVets and conservative-leaning Concerned Veterans for America.

The survey — conducted in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Florida and Virginia — found that most Republican and Democratic voters alike are wary of more military action abroad. Eighty-three percent of the respondents said they preferred to see the same or lower levels of foreign military engagement by the U.S.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/25/poll-iran-military-swing-state-1380318

[Person Man]

That's more or less in line with what Rasmussen says. All major pollsters have Trump as a mildly unpopular president and RR has him more as a controversial one who splits the nation pretty neatly in two. This is pretty much in line with a president who will probably barely win again with only minimal (like Obama), or no(like Clinton) coattails.

[pbrower2a]

I wonder how the Iran thing is going to go. Are people thinking it was some sort of shrewd brinksmanship or just another childish game?

Are people thinking that Trump is actually "improving" or is this still just statistical noise? If Trump's standing is "improving", who is giving him credit for improving? Do people really just think they have more money now?

He blusters and then backs off. He loses a couple percent in approval and then gets it back. For some he alternates between horrible and tolerable based on that alone. Such things become the focus.

If it is brinkmanship it has risks that can turn a usually-shaky situation catastrophic.  



It's still within the range of statistical noise. Trump eases off a folly and he gets a slight increase in approval. That's about right. Then he threatens to do something stupid, and down go his polling numbers. We see that often. It is his character.  

This Iran thing doesn't count or are people buying it?

He loses a couple points of approval, backs off, and gets them back, or so seems the pattern. It may be disgusting, and even ineffective... but there are people in that roller-coaster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 22-25, 1500 adults including 1111 RV


Adults:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 48 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-2)

Generic D 38 (-3), Trump 35 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

Generic D 46 (-3), Trump 40 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (-1), R 40 (+1)

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wonder how the Iran thing is going to go. Are people thinking it was some sort of shrewd brinksmanship or just another childish game?

Are people thinking that Trump is actually "improving" or is this still just statistical noise? If Trump's standing is "improving", who is giving him credit for improving? Do people really just think they have more money now?

He blusters and then backs off. He loses a couple percent in approval and then gets it back. For some he alternates between horrible and tolerable based on that alone. Such things become the focus.

If it is brinkmanship it has risks that can turn a usually-shaky situation catastrophic.  



It's still within the range of statistical noise. Trump eases off a folly and he gets a slight increase in approval. That's about right. Then he threatens to do something stupid, and down go his polling numbers. We see that often. It is his character.  

This Iran thing doesn't count or are people buying it?

He loses a couple points of approval, backs off, and gets them back, or so seems the pattern. It may be disgusting, and even ineffective... but there are people in that roller-coaster.

And that's the biggest problem with this country. If he just had his base and no one else, he wouldn't be have an iota of a chance in 2020, but his soft support, "the stove touchers" are probably the worst people in the country.

[Person Man]

I wonder how the Iran thing is going to go. Are people thinking it was some sort of shrewd brinksmanship or just another childish game?

Are people thinking that Trump is actually "improving" or is this still just statistical noise? If Trump's standing is "improving", who is giving him credit for improving? Do people really just think they have more money now?

He blusters and then backs off. He loses a couple percent in approval and then gets it back. For some he alternates between horrible and tolerable based on that alone. Such things become the focus.

If it is brinkmanship it has risks that can turn a usually-shaky situation catastrophic.  



It's still within the range of statistical noise. Trump eases off a folly and he gets a slight increase in approval. That's about right. Then he threatens to do something stupid, and down go his polling numbers. We see that often. It is his character.  

This Iran thing doesn't count or are people buying it?

He loses a couple points of approval, backs off, and gets them back, or so seems the pattern. It may be disgusting, and even ineffective... but there are people in that roller-coaster.

And that's the biggest problem with this country. If he just had his base and no one else, he wouldn't be have an iota of a chance in 2020, but his soft support, "the stove touchers" are probably the worst people in the country.

There's stove touchers, window lickers, and even those who put moist body parts of frozen flag poles when its below zero out and just snowed like 6 inches.

[pbrower2a]

Maine, Gravis.

45-51. Every Democrat tested beats Trump.


http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Maine-Jun-26-2019.pdf

(It's about time for a Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin, and a Selzer poll of Iowa, don't you think?)

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[GeorgiaModerate]

An interesting tidbit in that Maine poll is that Susan Collins is at 48/48 approval...17/24 strongly.

[Person Man]

An interesting tidbit in that Maine poll is that Susan Collins is at 48/48 approval...17/24 strongly.

She loses at this rate.

[pbrower2a]

AP/NORC:



Note the unconventional positioning of disapproval to the left and approval to the right.

Enough said. Want more? Here is the article.

https://apnews.com/a5523454096a4c2b9e8406251ee8c2a2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think OH and maybe FL may tilt Democratic this time

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think OH and maybe FL may tilt Democratic this time

I wish. That poll about the economy definitely weakens Trump's biggest asset as a narrative, but that's still way too optimistic.

[Gass3268]

I think OH and maybe FL may tilt Democratic this time

I wish. That poll about the economy definitely weakens Trump's biggest asset as a narrative, but that's still way too optimistic.

AP has always been a good counter to Rassy. It's just too bad that Rassy is everyday.