Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Annatar]

This image is based off vote counts as they stood the day after the election and was the kind of data the media used to write a thousand nonsense articles on Nov 9 2016 about how Clinton had gotten millions of fewer votes than Obama and Trump got fewer than Romney. Hillary gained 5.8 million more votes and Trump 3.2 million as the vote count went on from Nov 9 2016. Clinton for example ended up with 2.926 million votes in PA, 64,000 less than Obama or 2.2%, this image shows a 4.9% drop.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, June 9-12, 1001 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-3)

2020:

Biden 49 (nc), Trump 39 (+1)
Sanders 49 (+3), Trump 40 (-1)
Harris 42 (+1), Trump 41 (nc)
Warren 43 (nc), Trump 41 (nc)
Buttigieg 41 (+1), Trump 40 (-1)

Do you think the Trump campaign coordinated with the Russian government during the 2016 presidential election, or not?

Yes 50 (+6)
No 44 (+2)

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-6-16

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, June 8-11, 1000 adults (prior poll April 28-May 1)

Approve 44 (-2)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

[pbrower2a]

NBC has released the results for all but five of the states polled on Meet the Press today.  The states not identified are Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.

The internal polling paints a picture of an incumbent president with serious ground to gain across the country as his re-election campaign kicks into higher gear.

While the campaign tested other Democratic presidential candidates against Trump, Biden polled the best of the group, according the source.

In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan — three states where Trump edged Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by narrow margins that proved decisive in his victory — Trump trails Biden by double-digits. In three of those states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida — Biden’s leads sit outside the poll’s margin of error.

Trump is also behind the former vice president in Iowa by 7 points, in North Carolina by 8 points, in Virginia by 17 points, in Ohio by 1 point, in Georgia by 6 points, in Minnesota by 14 points, and in Maine by 15 points.

In Texas, where a Democratic presidential nominee hasn’t won since President Jimmy Carter in 1976, Trump leads by just 2 points.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/trump-campaign-cutting-ties-pollsters-after-internal-numbers-leaked-n1017991

I am not incorporating these polls because they are from March. I have every reason to believe that they were conducted properly, their results showing what other pollsters have found.

[Person Man]

NBC has released the results for all but five of the states polled on Meet the Press today.  The states not identified are Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.

The internal polling paints a picture of an incumbent president with serious ground to gain across the country as his re-election campaign kicks into higher gear.

While the campaign tested other Democratic presidential candidates against Trump, Biden polled the best of the group, according the source.

In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan — three states where Trump edged Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by narrow margins that proved decisive in his victory — Trump trails Biden by double-digits. In three of those states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida — Biden’s leads sit outside the poll’s margin of error.

Trump is also behind the former vice president in Iowa by 7 points, in North Carolina by 8 points, in Virginia by 17 points, in Ohio by 1 point, in Georgia by 6 points, in Minnesota by 14 points, and in Maine by 15 points.

In Texas, where a Democratic presidential nominee hasn’t won since President Jimmy Carter in 1976, Trump leads by just 2 points.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/trump-campaign-cutting-ties-pollsters-after-internal-numbers-leaked-n1017991

I am not incorporating these polls because they are from March. I have every reason to believe that they were conducted properly, their results showing what other pollsters have found.

A good morning line though?

[pbrower2a]

NBC has released the results for all but five of the states polled on Meet the Press today.  The states not identified are Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.

The internal polling paints a picture of an incumbent president with serious ground to gain across the country as his re-election campaign kicks into higher gear.

While the campaign tested other Democratic presidential candidates against Trump, Biden polled the best of the group, according the source.

In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan — three states where Trump edged Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by narrow margins that proved decisive in his victory — Trump trails Biden by double-digits. In three of those states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida — Biden’s leads sit outside the poll’s margin of error.

Trump is also behind the former vice president in Iowa by 7 points, in North Carolina by 8 points, in Virginia by 17 points, in Ohio by 1 point, in Georgia by 6 points, in Minnesota by 14 points, and in Maine by 15 points.

In Texas, where a Democratic presidential nominee hasn’t won since President Jimmy Carter in 1976, Trump leads by just 2 points.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/trump-campaign-cutting-ties-pollsters-after-internal-numbers-leaked-n1017991

I am not incorporating these polls because they are from March. I have every reason to believe that they were conducted properly, their results showing what other pollsters have found.

A good morning line though?

It is evidence that the 'fake news' about polling of the President's approval numbers is not so fake.

[Person Man]

 https://www.270towin.com/maps/dQkDl

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kentucky: Gravis, June 11-12, 741 LV

Approve 60 (strongly 48)
Disapprove 37 (strongly 27)

Trump 57, Biden 37
Trump 57, Sanders 35
Trump 60, Buttigieg 28
Trump 60, Warren 28

[forgotten manatee]

Does the term 'Trump approval' make anyone else think of an oppressively loud and awkwardly long fart sound?

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky rarely gets polled.

Kentucky: Gravis, June 11-12, 741 LV

Approve 60 (strongly 48)
Disapprove 37 (strongly 27)

Trump 57, Biden 37
Trump 57, Sanders 35
Trump 60, Buttigieg 28
Trump 60, Warren 28

Kentucky should be one of Trump's strongest states. This is tepid. He will almost certainly win it, but not by the 63-33 margin by which he trounced Hillary Clinton in 2016.

This is consistent with the President losing about 5% support nationwide from 2016, and with otherwise-inexplicably bad approval ratings for the President in  Georgia and North Carolina.  

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How much will his numbers drop because of the Iran stuff?

[pbrower2a]

How much will his numbers drop because of the Iran stuff?

Not much. It will take filled body bags to bring down support for Trump. The personality cult is strong. It is hard to imagine his disapproval numbers going much lower. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, June 11-13 (change from March)

Pennsylvania (587 LV):

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Michigan (565 LV):

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Wisconsin (535 LV):

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, May 30-June 4, 1206 adults (change since late April)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+4)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

[pbrower2a]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, June 11-13 (change from March)

Pennsylvania (587 LV):

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Michigan (565 LV):

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Wisconsin (535 LV):

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

Who are these guys?

[pbrower2a]

Florida, Quinnipiac:

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2629

Trump approval, 44-51. Biden is up by 9 over Trump, and all other named Democrats are ahead of the President.

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, June 11-13 (change from March)

Pennsylvania (587 LV):

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Michigan (565 LV):

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Wisconsin (535 LV):

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

Who are these guys?

Some former Republican operatives.

[Gass3268]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, June 11-13 (change from March)

Pennsylvania (587 LV):

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Michigan (565 LV):

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Wisconsin (535 LV):

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

Who are these guys?

Some former Republican operatives.

Yeah, for Rubio.

[pbrower2a]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, June 11-13 (change from March)

Pennsylvania (587 LV):

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Michigan (565 LV):

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Wisconsin (535 LV):

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

Who are these guys?

Some former Republican operatives.

Yeah, for Rubio.

Therefore suspect. They might be kissing up to Donald Trump.

OK, Zogby and ARG have been held in low regard, but at least they are non-partisan. There is always the possibility that they might start getting valid results.  They are not suspected of cooking the books.   

Firehouse Strategies is thus on  double-secret probation.

[RI]

Suffolk: Approve 49, Disapprove 48

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2019/6_19_2019_marginals_pdftxt.pdf

[ProudModerate2]

Approve 43%
Disapprove 55%
---Net result: Disapprove +12

Gallup
Jun 3-16, 2019
1,015 Adults
https://news.gallup.com/poll/258359/trump-job-approval-early-june.aspx

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Suffolk: Approve 49, Disapprove 48

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2019/6_19_2019_marginals_pdftxt.pdf

538 isn't seriously gonna use this, are they?

[ProudModerate2]

Approve 40%
Disapprove 59%
---Net result: Disapprove +19

Pew Research Center
Apr 29-May 13, 2019
10,170 Adults
(Info from 538 website)

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, June 13-19, 1116 adults

Approve 38
Disapprove 60

Was 38/61 last month.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Suffolk: Approve 49, Disapprove 48

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2019/6_19_2019_marginals_pdftxt.pdf

538 isn't seriously gonna use this, are they?

They refuse to strike Rasmussen from their lists soooo ¯\_(ツ)_/¯