Australian Federal Election 18th of May 2019

[AtorBoltox]

Any locals wanna update on this? We're less that two weeks from E-day and it's hard to discern what's been cutting through among those of us in non-Oz.

Coalition have focused their entire campaign on fear mongering about Shorten and Labor's tax policy. The polling has tightened somewhat but I'm not sure whether that should be trusted given Morrison continues to extensively campaign in seats held by the coalition on large margins. There's also been a shockingly high number of candidates who've been forced to drop out after the ballots have already been printed and early voting begun for making offensive statements

[CumbrianLefty]

Sorry, do expand?

[morgieb]

Sorry, do expand?

Basically they attacked Bill Shorten's mother for being a high-profile barrister after Shorten claimed that she should've succeedeed a lot more in life but was too old or didn't have the money to go to university to train as a lawyer. So the Daily Telegraph was lying about Shorten's personal circumstances to make his family circumstances look wealthier than what they were, and it allowed Shorten to play sympathy and humanise himself.

[VPH]

What policy differences exist between the United Australian Party, Katter's Australian Party, and One Nation? I know they broadly compete for a similar base of voters.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What policy differences exist between the United Australian Party, Katter's Australian Party, and One Nation? I know they broadly compete for a similar base of voters.

Well they are all wrapped up in the personae of their leaders, so might as well go over them.

Bob Katter is a longtime fixture of Queensland politics, having inherited his rural Northern seat of Kennedy from his father after serving in the rather infamous Queensland cabinet of Joh Bjelke Peterson (it's very hard to get Queensland conservatism without a look at this guy). He left the National Party in 2001, complaining that they were too close to the Liberals and their support for free trade and free market policies were decimating the outback economy. KAP is a very parochial party, in that it doesn't really try outside of its base of North Queensland (especially after its flop national campaign  in 2013). I would have once said that Katter is less tolerant to racism than similar protectionist outfits, but this term he let Fraser Anning in his party following his defection from One Nation, briefly defending his horrendous "Final Solution for Immigration" speech. I don't really like the phrase "social conservative" but Katter fits more than Palmer: it goes back to his youth when he egged The Beatles on stage. His policies are super integrated to that base: it's all about ethanol subsidies and protectionism on agricultural products etc.

Palmer is a less ideologically aligned politician. Some might call it centrism, but Palmer is more the sort of guy who just grabs a bunch of popular sounding planks (abolition of tuition fees), punts on all difficult "social" issues like euthanasia or gay marriage and embodies a hostility to the party system. He seems to directly place his new party as a successor to the historic UAP: a National Government style formation formed amidst the Great Depression (hilariously his website lists the UAP PM's Lyons and Menzies as historic members), which says a lot - UAP is intended as a party with a mass appeal that will unite Australians around a central figure. Whether Palmer's flamboyance and ridiculous election spending can outweigh the shambolic performance of his last time in politics and the recent liquidation of his Nickel concern is another question (I doubt it will work). They have a lot more national ambitions than KAP, with its predessesor PUP grabbing seats in West Australia and Tasmania (and they briefly attracted aboriginal defectors from the CLP in the Northern Territory, which was weird), and have a lot wider (but not deeper) appeal than Katter's base of "old farmers".

Pauline Hanson is yet another politician based in Queensland, as you probably know. Although her original iteration was based around Australia being swamped by Asians, now the focus is more on Muslims. While Katter and Palmer will occasionally wade through that mire, it's not the purpose of their parties (heck Palmer in 2013 ran to the left of Labour on the refugees issue): PHON is a party based around opposition to immigration and alt-right politics.

[Smid]

What policy differences exist between the United Australian Party, Katter's Australian Party, and One Nation? I know they broadly compete for a similar base of voters.

Well they are all wrapped up in the personae of their leaders, so might as well go over them.

Bob Katter is a longtime fixture of Queensland politics, having inherited his rural Northern seat of Kennedy from his father after serving in the rather infamous Queensland cabinet of Joh Bjelke Peterson (it's very hard to get Queensland conservatism without a look at this guy).

You might also wish to add that his son, Robbie Katter, is the Katter Party leader in the Queensland Parliament, representing a state electorate that is largely (entirely?) contained within his father's federal seat.

[Lachi]

So, over the last 18 hours, we have gone from rumors circulating that the Courier mail was gonna drop a massive scandal on Shorten, then they article actually being released, and ending up being an absolute non-story fizzer, to now having basically having the article's premise being shown to be complete BS.

The story was about how an employee who asked Shorten a question at a Queensland government-owned mining company being apparently suspended by that company. We now that the person was an employee of the company and the company suspending him was a complete lie, the person was actually never employed by this company, he was only a subcontractor.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

What time do polls close? I want to watch the ABC livestream, for whatever reason I find Australian newscaster accents very pleasant and soothing, and I love the swing graphics and music they use

[Mazda]

What time do polls close? I want to watch the ABC livestream, for whatever reason I find Australian newscaster accents very pleasant and soothing, and I love the swing graphics and music they use

Polls close at 6pm across the country, but nothing is reported until polls have closed in Western Australia - 6pm AWST is apparently 6am EST.

Two interesting things:
1) The fact that the time zones don't correspond precisely to state or electorate boundaries always causes a bit of chaos on election days.
2) Although no results are declared from the eastern states before 6pm AWST, the Electoral Commission does announce that they will be running the election night preference counts between particular candidates before polls close in WA. Usually this will be the Coalition and Labor candidates, but if it turns out that a third-party candidate has surprisingly reached the top two, the actual preference count will be redone and the initial one won't count. Clive Palmer took the AEC to court over this on the grounds that if WA voters knew that he wasn't going to win a seat in the lower house in Queensland, they might not vote for his party in WA - but this argument was rightly rejected.

[adma]

How much "sentiment boost" might Labor get from Bob Hawke's passing, I wonder...

[Smid]

What time do polls close? I want to watch the ABC livestream, for whatever reason I find Australian newscaster accents very pleasant and soothing, and I love the swing graphics and music they use

Polls close at 6pm across the country, but nothing is reported until polls have closed in Western Australia - 6pm AWST is apparently 6am EST.

Two interesting things:
1) The fact that the time zones don't correspond precisely to state or electorate boundaries always causes a bit of chaos on election days.
2) Although no results are declared from the eastern states before 6pm AWST, the Electoral Commission does announce that they will be running the election night preference counts between particular candidates before polls close in WA. Usually this will be the Coalition and Labor candidates, but if it turns out that a third-party candidate has surprisingly reached the top two, the actual preference count will be redone and the initial one won't count. Clive Palmer took the AEC to court over this on the grounds that if WA voters knew that he wasn't going to win a seat in the lower house in Queensland, they might not vote for his party in WA - but this argument was rightly rejected.

Australian timezones match state boundaries.

They only block coverage of results in places where the polls are yet to close. Assuming there are no regional blocks on the ABC webcasting, you should be able to catch Antony Green from 6pm Australian Eastern Standard Time (just under 24 hours from the timestamp on this post).

[Mazda]

What time do polls close? I want to watch the ABC livestream, for whatever reason I find Australian newscaster accents very pleasant and soothing, and I love the swing graphics and music they use

Polls close at 6pm across the country, but nothing is reported until polls have closed in Western Australia - 6pm AWST is apparently 6am EST.

Two interesting things:
1) The fact that the time zones don't correspond precisely to state or electorate boundaries always causes a bit of chaos on election days.
2) Although no results are declared from the eastern states before 6pm AWST, the Electoral Commission does announce that they will be running the election night preference counts between particular candidates before polls close in WA. Usually this will be the Coalition and Labor candidates, but if it turns out that a third-party candidate has surprisingly reached the top two, the actual preference count will be redone and the initial one won't count. Clive Palmer took the AEC to court over this on the grounds that if WA voters knew that he wasn't going to win a seat in the lower house in Queensland, they might not vote for his party in WA - but this argument was rightly rejected.

Australian timezones match state boundaries.

They only block coverage of results in places where the polls are yet to close. Assuming there are no regional blocks on the ABC webcasting, you should be able to catch Antony Green from 6pm Australian Eastern Standard Time (just under 24 hours from the timestamp on this post).

Oh right, didn't know it was only a regional block. However, Broken Hill (in NSW) does use Central Time.

[Smid]

However, Broken Hill (in NSW) does use Central Time.

Oh, really? I was not aware of that. Actually, while on the topic of timezones in Australia, I remember seeing something about a town on the Nullarbor that has its own time zone, although it isn't officially recognised. Here's the article.

[Talleyrand]

My prediction is 76 ALP, 71 L/NP, with Bandt, Wilkie, Katter, and Sharkie on the crossbench. ALP wins Forde, but loses Herbert in QLD, wins Gilmore and Robertson in NSW, and wins La Trobe, Chisholm, Dunkley, and Corangamite in VIC, loses Braddon in TAS. L/NP also wins back Indi and Wentworth from crossbench.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

I’m going to guess:.

Labor 80
Coalition 66
Independents 2
Green 1
Former Xenophon 1
Katter 1

Literally just made that up.

[Pericles]

I think Labor will win and will win a majority. As a final prediction, I'll go for a 2.1% swing to Labor with 81 seats to 64 for the Coalition, Abbott and Dutton both lose (Abbott I'm less sure about but things don't look good for him).

[brucejoel99]

I'll go all out & say it'll be a great night for the crossbench:

Labor 80
Coalition 59
Independents 7 (Wilkie, Phelps, Banks, Haines, Steggall, Oakeshott, Mack)
Greens 3 (Bandt, Burnside, Ball)
Katter 1
Centre Alliance 1 (Sharkie)

...with the added cherries-on-top of Abbott, Frydenberg (obviously, as indicated above re: Steggall & Burnside, respectively), & Dutton all losing.

[Smid]

Does anybody want to compile the Sportsbet seat odds (plus other interesting odds, like highest/lowest turnout, overall stay numbers, etc? I did last time to see how well the odds compared to the outcomes, but I'm tied up at the moment. If anyone is interested, the odds can be found here: https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics

Interested in each seat, if we can compile them.

[Walmart_shopper]

My guess: ALP 83, LNP 62, other 6 (1 green, few independents, 1 KAP).  A swing of almost 3%. Tony and Dutton both lose.

I'm not sure if that will be enough to snag the Senate though.

[Walmart_shopper]

The ALP is up 52-48 in early exit polls. It sounds like Labor officials are fairly confident of a majority, but that there's a lot of regional variance that makes predicting results very difficult right now.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Can I ask how non-white communities tend to vote in Australia? I haven't heard this discussed much before, so I assume they tend to favour Labor in most cases? I'm interested because the Greens look to be strongest in the sorts of areas where I would assume the recent immigrant population is highest, but in most of the world the base of green parties is the educated middle classes and they struggle to make inroads in non-white communities.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The Guardian is reporting that Abbott looks doomed, based on the early booths. Assuming they aren't wildly unrepresentative, I presume that's also good news for Phelps in Wentworth?

[cp]

What are the best sites to follow for live updates? I'm on the Guardian right now, but I can't make heads or tails of the exit polling data.

[Pericles]

With 10.4% counted nationwide there is a 1.3% two party preferred swing to the Coalition.

[Keep Calm and ...]

I'm following the results page of abc.net.au and pollbludger

Federal Exit Poll, Galaxy:
L/NP: 39.0% (-3.0)
ALP: 38.0% (+3.3)
GRN: 10.0% (-0.2)

Federal Exit Poll (TPP), Galaxy:
ALP: 52.0% (+2.4)
L/NP: 48.0% (-2.4)