Australian Federal Election 18th of May 2019

[Wisconsin+17]

Happy man today. I called all the Queensland flips and the Tasmania Flips. Really hope the Coalition can take Cowan too.

All I basically did was assume the actual polling was the exact opposite of abc's coverage on election day. They said that WA was trending against the coalition (it didn't), and that Queensland was dire for the coalition (it had a surge for the coalition), and that Tasmania was a lost cause.

Seriously, abc when someone who's on the opposite side of the world can call your elections better than you can, it's time to retire!

Voting total results indicate that while folks are not terribly happy with the coalition, they like labor even less than before. Labor votes are down 1%!

[Wisconsin+17]

Still TCTC:

Snowdon in NT. Half in, Labor leads by three. currently a 6 point swing to the Coalition.

Solomon in NT. 60 percent in, Labor leads by three here too.

Blair in Queensland. 60 percent in, Labor leads by less than a percent.


Griffith in Queensland. 70 percent in Labor leads by four.


Lilley in Queensland, 70 percent in, Laboer leads by half a percent.


Moretown in Queensland, 60 percent in, Labor leads by two percent.

[Wisconsin+17]

Flint takes the lead again in Boothby! Yay!

67 in, Liberals up half a percent.

Bass 80 percent in, still TCTC, Liberals up by 1.5 percent.

Cowan, Labor still up by half a percent. Half in.

[Wisconsin+17]

Chisholm in Victoria, Liberals still up but very close.

Indi is still TCTC, currently the independents lead, but by two percent.

Dobell in NSW is TCTC, currently Labor leads by a percent.

Eden is NSW is TCTC, currently Labor leads by a percent.

Hunter is still TCTC, currently Labor leads by 2 over the Nationalists. This should have been a completely safe Labor seat.

Macquerie, Liberals still lead here.

Wentworth, Sharma is still down by half a percent with half in.

[Wisconsin+17]

67 in. Labor lead in Cowan down to .2 percent.

And it flips! Liberals have the lead now!

[GoTfan]

Happy man today. I called all the Queensland flips and the Tasmania Flips. Really hope the Coalition can take Cowan too.

All I basically did was assume the actual polling was the exact opposite of abc's coverage on election day. They said that WA was trending against the coalition (it didn't), and that Queensland was dire for the coalition (it had a surge for the coalition), and that Tasmania was a lost cause.

Seriously, abc when someone who's on the opposite side of the world can call your elections better than you can, it's time to retire!

Voting total results indicate that while folks are not terribly happy with the coalition, they like labor even less than before. Labor votes are down 1%!

Yeah. Zero action on climate change is always a big plus.

But hey, at least we won't get any scary brown people.

[Wisconsin+17]

But hey, at least we won't get any scary brown people.

[mileslunn]

While a polling error for sure it seems roughly the same size as Brexit.  Of the three provincial elections we've had this year in Canada all had bigger polling errors even though one got winner correct.  Last two UK elections saw bigger polling errors and a number of European have so is a polling error this big unprecedented for Australia?  I am thinking with a two party and mandatory voting such polling error would be less likely as when two parties easier to pick up shifts while with mandatory voting you don't run the risk of one party doing a better job than another at getting their supporters out to the polls.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

At least Tony Dum-Dum is out.

[GoTfan]

But hey, at least we won't get any scary brown people.

Good job on not responding to the climate change part.

[Wisconsin+17]

While a polling error for sure it seems roughly the same size as Brexit.

Consistent error on one side of the line suggests systematic bias. If the error were sometimes on the side of conservatives, it wouldn't be systematic error.

Australian polls are quite simple. Liberals win on election day, and every single pollster between elections says they lose. Every single one.

[Wisconsin+17]

Good job on not responding to the climate change part.

What about it? Apparently only white people cause climate change.

[Wisconsin+17]

75 now, with Cowan lead back to 0.3 for Labor.

Lilley also with a Labor lead of just 0.3.

Blair at 0.8 for Labor


Chisholm at 0.4 for the Liberals, and Boothby also very close at 0.3

Maquerie at 0.2 for the Liberals. Going to come right down to the line here. Still a bunch of TCTCs, though some are going to be called pretty soon here.

[mileslunn]

While a polling error for sure it seems roughly the same size as Brexit.

Consistent error on one side of the line suggests systematic bias. If the error were sometimes on the side of conservatives, it wouldn't be systematic error.

Australian polls are quite simple. Liberals win on election day, and every single pollster between elections says they lose. Every single one.

Any reason for that?  In countries where voting is not compulsory that makes some sense as usually parties on left do better amongst younger voters who don't show up as often but if compulsory seems less likely.  Also often when a polling error pollsters try to figure out what went wrong and overcorrect, UK perfect example where Tories overperformed in 2015, Labour in 2017.

[GoTfan]

Good job on not responding to the climate change part.

What about it? Apparently only white people cause climate change.

Really? That's your response?

The Coalition will do f**k all on climate change and you know it.

[Wisconsin+17]

Any reason for that?

As you've noted, there's a few elections that were the other way. Canada's election in 2015 was one, strangely. Polls showed a conservative minority but that's not what we saw. Something like 10-15 percent for a Liberal victory. Pretty much every 'tossup' broke their way, which is very unusual, I've never seen that before or since.

I got that one wrong due to estimating the usual liberal bias.

I think polling is done pretty poorly. There are all kinds of ways to distort a poll, and most polls I've seen tend to be done by organizations with an axe to grind. The problem is that polling is seen as a way to shape the narrative rather than reflecting on the actual views of the electorate.

Until polling returns to being a reflector rather than a tool to manipulate people, we will see bad polling done.

Also often when a polling error pollsters try to figure out what went wrong and overcorrect, UK perfect example where Tories overperformed in 2015, Labour in 2017.

It shouldn't be a matter of 'overcorrecting'. Again, polling should be a reflection not a narrative shaper. I've done ok every election since 2015, which was a bit of an aberration. Only one I truly missed on was the House election, which Republicans lost due to the mortgage deduction. That's why they lost their blue state high cost of living seats.

[Wisconsin+17]

The Coalition will do f**k all on climate change and you know it.

Which is different from the posturing of Labor how? The only 'action' on climate change that I see is raising taxes on people trying to make a living.

It's a scam. But, I guess it's good if you get your lifestyle choices subsidized while taxing the crap out of people you don't like.

[cp]

Good job on not responding to the climate change part.

What about it? Apparently only white people cause climate change.

Can you two children please take your bickering to the intl discussion forum or else stick to the election returns?

[Wisconsin+17]

Can you two children please take your bickering to the intl discussion forum or else stick to the election returns?

Finally! Thank you!


Returns seem to be slowing down now. Guess the counters are taking a break. 

[cp]

Can you two children please take your bickering to the intl discussion forum or else stick to the election returns?

Finally! Thank you!

That includes you. Taking a troll's bait is as bad as trolling. Stop it.

[GoTfan]

Can you two children please take your bickering to the intl discussion forum or else stick to the election returns?

Finally! Thank you!

That includes you. Taking a troll's bait is as bad as trolling. Stop it.

So being concerned about a plantary-level catastrophe is trolling.

Gotcha.

[adma]

As you've noted, there's a few elections that were the other way. Canada's election in 2015 was one, strangely. Polls showed a conservative minority but that's not what we saw. Something like 10-15 percent for a Liberal victory. Pretty much every 'tossup' broke their way, which is very unusual, I've never seen that before or since.

You're wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election

[Wisconsin+17]

Martin gaining in Indi on Helen Haines. Now just 1.9 percent down. Still TCTC

[cp]

Can you two children please take your bickering to the intl discussion forum or else stick to the election returns?

Finally! Thank you!

That includes you. Taking a troll's bait is as bad as trolling. Stop it.

So being concerned about a plantary-level catastrophe is trolling.

Gotcha.

It is on the elections thread. You want to debate, go to the discussion thread.

[cp]

As you've noted, there's a few elections that were the other way. Canada's election in 2015 was one, strangely. Polls showed a conservative minority but that's not what we saw. Something like 10-15 percent for a Liberal victory. Pretty much every 'tossup' broke their way, which is very unusual, I've never seen that before or since.

You're wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election

Indeed, I was going to say ...

Imagining a 'systematic' left bias is pretty naive (though there's an argument the Canadian libs aren't really left). A better quasi-conspiracy theory would focus on the Murdoch-owned press in Aus/UK/US unfairly facilitating right wing governments and their message framing ... But that's a matter for the discussion thread.

More relevantly, when are the Senate results going to be released?