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Poll
Question: Rate Arizona in 2020
#1
Likely R		  
#2
Lean R		  
#3
Toss-Up/Tilt R		  
#4
Toss-Up/Tilt D		  
#5
Lean D		  
#6
Likely D		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 178

Author Topic: Rate Arizona  (Read 2358 times)
ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« on: April 08, 2019, 09:05:32 AM »
« edited: April 08, 2019, 09:13:17 AM by ElectionsGuy »
I'm going to be conducting rating polls for competitive states in the presidential election. My plan is four 'batches' in total (early 2019 (now), late 2019, early 2020, and late 2020) to track the status of the election through time. Who knows though, I might forget in the future. All the safe states are agreed upon by Cook/Sabato/Inside Elections and the vast majority of prognosticators and will not be polled. All the polled states will have options within 2 deviations of the mainstream prognostication ratings (for example, Lean R is two away from Lean D). Instead of choosing a winner, simply choose tilt D or tilt R within the toss-up category, since the winner is implied elsewhere. Tilt R and Tilt D are separate categories but will not be counted as a deviation in terms of what I stated above. The median vote will be what is recorded. One state per day for the next 2-3 weeks or so.



Safe R: 125
Likely R:
Lean R:
Toss-Up/Tilt R:
Toss-Up/Tilt D:
Lean D:
Likely D:
Safe D: 183
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Skye
yeah_93
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« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2019, 09:07:48 AM »
Lean R.

How dare you not include trending R Rhode Island in this list.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2019, 09:24:03 AM »
Quote from: yeah_93 on April 08, 2019, 09:07:48 AM
Lean R.

How dare you not include trending R Rhode Island in this list.

No D trending Kansas either Sad
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Nightcore Nationalist
Okthisisnotepic.
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« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2019, 09:37:14 AM »
Tilt R.  Tossup-lean R depending on candidate.
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Skye
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« Reply #4 on: April 08, 2019, 09:40:53 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on April 08, 2019, 09:24:03 AM
Quote from: yeah_93 on April 08, 2019, 09:07:48 AM
Lean R.

How dare you not include trending R Rhode Island in this list.

No D trending Kansas either Sad

Pure blasphemy. Atlas will surely be up in arms against it.
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2019, 11:02:36 AM »
Tilt/Lean R

Voted Tilt
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Da2017
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« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2019, 11:09:27 AM »
toss up tilt R
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Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
freethinkingindy
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« Reply #7 on: April 08, 2019, 11:18:23 AM »
Why is New Mexico considered anything but Safe D?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: April 08, 2019, 11:46:11 AM »
« Edited: April 08, 2019, 11:53:39 AM by All States will be D »
Tossup/Tilt D. Trump still has a solid shot at election but he isn't that popular either. I expect him to lose the PV by around 4 points while losing 2016 Hillary states+PA,WI,MI,AZ,NE 02. The election with my deviation has a reasonable prediction of +2 and maybe +3 Trump and probably +11 D candidate.(with recession only) The D's do have a higher ceiling than Trump as a recession could cause his floor to collapse.
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here2view
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« Reply #9 on: April 08, 2019, 01:14:37 PM »
Tossup/Tilt D.

I think it'll be the closest state in 2020.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #10 on: April 08, 2019, 01:17:06 PM »
Voted Tossup/Tilt D.

This could be the tipping-point state.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: April 08, 2019, 01:22:34 PM »
Tilt/Lean D. It probably votes to the left of WI and MI, especially if Trump wins reelection.

Quote from: ElectionsGuy on April 08, 2019, 09:24:03 AM
Quote from: yeah_93 on April 08, 2019, 09:07:48 AM
Lean R.

How dare you not include trending R Rhode Island in this list.

No D trending Kansas either Sad

I mean, if you’re including VA, NM and CO, you might as well include RI and KS.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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E: -0.13, S: -0.87

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« Reply #12 on: April 08, 2019, 01:33:01 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on April 08, 2019, 01:22:34 PM
Tilt/Lean D. It probably votes to the left of WI and MI, especially if Trump wins reelection.

Quote from: ElectionsGuy on April 08, 2019, 09:24:03 AM
Quote from: yeah_93 on April 08, 2019, 09:07:48 AM
Lean R.

How dare you not include trending R Rhode Island in this list.

No D trending Kansas either Sad

I mean, if you’re including VA, NM and CO, you might as well include RI and KS.
VA: Clinton +5 and without a majority (even with Kaine)
CO: Clinton +5 and without a majority
NM: Clinton +8 and without a majority

RI: Clinton +16
KS: Trump +21

Not even comparable lol.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #13 on: April 08, 2019, 01:34:45 PM »
Tilt D. Mark Kelly helps the Dems here
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #14 on: April 08, 2019, 01:39:59 PM »
Arizona provides some insurance.  It's really the only Sun Belt state that's a potential pickup next year.
The Democrats absolutely need to win back Michigan and Pennsylvania and could then afford to lose Wisconsin.
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PaperKooper
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« Reply #15 on: April 08, 2019, 01:43:29 PM »
It appears that every contest that was within 10% in 2016 will get a poll, as well as ME-2. 
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #16 on: April 08, 2019, 03:50:01 PM »
Quote from: North Fulton Democrat on April 08, 2019, 01:39:59 PM
Arizona provides some insurance.  It's really the only Sun Belt state that's a potential pickup next year.
As is Georgia and Florida but ok.
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User155815470020
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« Reply #17 on: April 08, 2019, 05:56:40 PM »
Quote from: Kyrsten Sinema Hack on April 08, 2019, 11:18:23 AM
Why is New Mexico considered anything but Safe D?

.......Because in 2004, New Mexico chose George W. Bush over John Kerry.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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E: -6.84, S: -0.17

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« Reply #18 on: April 08, 2019, 05:59:05 PM »
Tilt D
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #19 on: April 08, 2019, 06:44:23 PM »
Tossup, but could also be lean R depending on who the Democratic nominee is.
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Orser67
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« Reply #20 on: April 08, 2019, 06:49:40 PM »
Tilt R. I think some Democrats on this board are a little too optimistic about AZ in 2020.
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Lognog
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« Reply #21 on: April 08, 2019, 11:12:29 PM »
Quote from: Kyrsten Sinema Hack on April 08, 2019, 11:18:23 AM
Why is New Mexico considered anything but Safe D?
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Bojack Horseman
Wolverine22
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« Reply #22 on: April 08, 2019, 11:28:35 PM »
Weak tilt D. This race is going to come down to who wins Wisconsin and Arizona.
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JGibson
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« Reply #23 on: April 08, 2019, 11:32:18 PM »
As of now, it's on the Tilt R side of the ledger.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #24 on: April 09, 2019, 01:39:28 AM »

Because one of the main prognosticators (Sabato) doesn't agree that New Mexico is Safe D. However since 2/3 of them (Cook and Inside Elections) agree, the average rating is, therefore, Safe D, so New Mexico will be the only poll where there will only be three options (Lean D to Safe D). Besides, I think you guys are being too optimistic about the state, Iowa, Texas and Ohio voted more Republican than New Mexico did Democratic in 2016.

It's weird so far that Sabato seems to be the most cautious of the three, because it's usually Cook.
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