States with a democrat geographical bias

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1113942769796431874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Nevada is clearly the best example of this. Light to medium blue urban areas that make up 85% of the state but 15% uber red rural areas make it a close state yet the legislature is easy for D's to win.

Texas is another example with the 76/150 districts won by Beto despite it being a R gerrymander

MA-although if R's are narrowly winning statewide they do landslide among districts the R's are in general too spread out to effectively win much.

Iowa-Idk about the state house but the congressional districts are quite favorable to the democrats with the median district about 5-6 points left of the state letting Fred Hubbel win a majority  in 2018.

[Nyvin]

Massachusetts, Hawaii, California, Vermont, Nevada all for sure.

New Mexico and Virginia to a lesser degree.

I guess you could sort of say Illinois since the Chicago metro is so relatively huge compared to the statewide vote, but that's not really geography, it's just general population.

[Zaybay]

The principle example of a Dem geographic bias has to be MA. It has 9 districts, more than NV, NM, HI, and Vermont, and it is able to maintain a full Democratic Congressional Delegation. Its practically impossible to draw an R favored seat in the state, to the point that having only 1 would be considered an egregious gerrymander. With NV, with NM, with CA, you can draw an R seat. MA is the only rather sizable state where you cant.

[Brittain33]

When suburbs swing from 60/40 Republican to 50/50 while rural areas move in the other direction, this starts to happen.

[cvparty]

When suburbs swing from 60/40 Republican to 50/50 while rural areas move in the other direction, this starts to happen.

Tex

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1113942769796431874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Nevada is clearly the best example of this. Light to medium blue urban areas that make up 85% of the state but 15% uber red rural areas make it a close state yet the legislature is easy for D's to win.

Texas is another example with the 76/150 districts won by Beto despite it being a R gerrymander

MA-although if R's are narrowly winning statewide they do landslide among districts the R's are in general too spread out to effectively win much.

Iowa-Idk about the state house but the congressional districts are quite favorable to the democrats with the median district about 5-6 points left of the state letting Fred Hubbel win a majority  in 2018.

How was Texas a Republican gerrymander?

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1113942769796431874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Nevada is clearly the best example of this. Light to medium blue urban areas that make up 85% of the state but 15% uber red rural areas make it a close state yet the legislature is easy for D's to win.

Texas is another example with the 76/150 districts won by Beto despite it being a R gerrymander

MA-although if R's are narrowly winning statewide they do landslide among districts the R's are in general too spread out to effectively win much.

Iowa-Idk about the state house but the congressional districts are quite favorable to the democrats with the median district about 5-6 points left of the state letting Fred Hubbel win a majority  in 2018.

How was Texas a Republican gerrymander?

Gerrymandering describes when maps are drawn with unusual shapes and combinations of communities in order to favor one party’s performance over another. It comes from a district drawn at Gov. Elbridge Gerry’s request in Massachusetts in the early 1800s, where the linking of towns in the Merrimack Valley with towns close to Boston resulted in a district looking like a lizard. A Republican gerrymander is a map drawn by Republicans to pack and crack Democratic voters and lead to a higher than expected number of Republican elected officials. In Texas, cracking Austin in six districts, 5 of which are represented by Republicans, is one sign of gerrymandering. I believe the map was drawn by Republican legislators but I could be wrong.

[lfromnj]

If you say Texas wasn't a R gerrymander than  IL wasn't a D gerrymander by that logic as it failed in its original goal in everything but IL 17th which is now kept just D enough for Bustos to not be a serious target.

[lfromnj]

Also Virginia with fair maps would probably have a pretty decent D geographical advantage due to self sorting hicks in VA 9th.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1113942769796431874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Nevada is clearly the best example of this. Light to medium blue urban areas that make up 85% of the state but 15% uber red rural areas make it a close state yet the legislature is easy for D's to win.

Texas is another example with the 76/150 districts won by Beto despite it being a R gerrymander

MA-although if R's are narrowly winning statewide they do landslide among districts the R's are in general too spread out to effectively win much.

Iowa-Idk about the state house but the congressional districts are quite favorable to the democrats with the median district about 5-6 points left of the state letting Fred Hubbel win a majority  in 2018.

How was Texas a Republican gerrymander?

For the State House:  

Waco is split almost exactly in half when if it was whole it would make a Safe D district.

Districts 90 and 95 in Tarrant county take in way too many of the hispanics in the county which makes districts 92, 93, 94, 96, and 97 all *just* out of reach of being competitive.

Unlike in Waco which is conveniently made into two GOP seats by cutting up the most Democratic part of the county,  in Travis county district 47 keeps all the most Republican parts of the county whole which makes it a swing seat (GOP seat in 2012) that was only won by a Democrat in 2018.  A similar approach was made in district 52 to the northeast.   All neighboring seats in Travis county are Safe D vote sinks.

District 121 in Bexar county neatly goes from the northern edge of the county perfectly down into the middle of the county while grabbing every Republican leaning precinct the area, almost symmetrically carving out a district that leans just Republican enough to not be competitive.

In Neuces county it's admittedly a failed gerrymander, but again instead of keep Corpus Christi whole (which would be brain dead easy) they split it between districts 32 and 34, trying to make two GOP seats, but 32 would be won by the Democrats in 2012 anyway.   But it's still a swing seat in what should be a Safe D seat.

There are others, but a lot of the gerrymanders in Houston and Dallas Metros have failed recently and it's hard to get into detail about what is happening in those parts.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Surprised nobody has mentioned Arizona

[Roronoa D. Law]

Surprised nobody has mentioned Arizona

Definitely AZ with a large Metropolitan area in the middle, large Native population to the north, and large Mexican American population in the south.

Iowa and Kansas also have a D geographical bias because its very possible for Democrat to win 3 congressional districts with a simple statewide majority.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Massachusetts is definitely the premier example. Its Republican population is very inefficiently distributed and requires gerrymandering to create an even lightly Republican leaning district. Maryland to some degree as well, but its Republican population is more efficiently distributed and a fair map would generate two natural Republican vote sinks. But the Republicans are completely locked out of the other six districts no matter how they are drawn due to VRA requirements, the weird shape of the state, and the fact that the Baltimore-Washington corridor is a dead zone for Republicans these days.

[Boobs]

Hawaii, probably?

[Bidenworth2020]

Hawaii, probably?

to be fair, I could probably count the number of Republican precincts in Hawaii on my 2 hands.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1113942769796431874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Texas is another example with the 76/150 districts won by Beto despite it being a R gerrymander

How was Texas a Republican gerrymander?

Gerrymandering describes when maps are drawn with unusual shapes and combinations of communities in order to favor one party’s performance over another. It comes from a district drawn at Gov. Elbridge Gerry’s request in Massachusetts in the early 1800s, where the linking of towns in the Merrimack Valley with towns close to Boston resulted in a district looking like a lizard. A Republican gerrymander is a map drawn by Republicans to pack and crack Democratic voters and lead to a higher than expected number of Republican elected officials. In Texas, cracking Austin in six districts, 5 of which are represented by Republicans, is one sign of gerrymandering. I believe the map was drawn by Republican legislators but I could be wrong.

I've omitted the districts other than in Texas. Lfromnj was clearly referring to the Texas House, unless you believe Texas has 150 congressmen.

The district in Massachusetts did not look like a Lizard. It was an inverted L shape. The northern part of the district followed the state boundary, which follows the Merrimack valley. The political cartoonist converted a sand spit in the mouth of the river into a serpent's tongue. The headlands of Marblehead were drawn as claws. The wings were fanciful, AFAIK.

The Democrats in the legislature may have drawn the district. I don't know what evidence there is that it was at Gerry's request.

How would you have divided Essex County into two districts made of whole towns?

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1113942769796431874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Nevada is clearly the best example of this. Light to medium blue urban areas that make up 85% of the state but 15% uber red rural areas make it a close state yet the legislature is easy for D's to win.

Texas is another example with the 76/150 districts won by Beto despite it being a R gerrymander

MA-although if R's are narrowly winning statewide they do landslide among districts the R's are in general too spread out to effectively win much.

Iowa-Idk about the state house but the congressional districts are quite favorable to the democrats with the median district about 5-6 points left of the state letting Fred Hubbel win a majority  in 2018.

How was Texas a Republican gerrymander?

For the State House:  

Waco is split almost exactly in half when if it was whole it would make a Safe D district.

Districts 90 and 95 in Tarrant county take in way too many of the hispanics in the county which makes districts 92, 93, 94, 96, and 97 all *just* out of reach of being competitive.

Unlike in Waco which is conveniently made into two GOP seats by cutting up the most Democratic part of the county,  in Travis county district 47 keeps all the most Republican parts of the county whole which makes it a swing seat (GOP seat in 2012) that was only won by a Democrat in 2018.  A similar approach was made in district 52 to the northeast.   All neighboring seats in Travis county are Safe D vote sinks.

District 121 in Bexar county neatly goes from the northern edge of the county perfectly down into the middle of the county while grabbing every Republican leaning precinct the area, almost symmetrically carving out a district that leans just Republican enough to not be competitive.

In Neuces county it's admittedly a failed gerrymander, but again instead of keep Corpus Christi whole (which would be brain dead easy) they split it between districts 32 and 34, trying to make two GOP seats, but 32 would be won by the Democrats in 2012 anyway.   But it's still a swing seat in what should be a Safe D seat.

There are others, but a lot of the gerrymanders in Houston and Dallas Metros have failed recently and it's hard to get into detail about what is happening in those parts.

Corpus Christi is 90% of Nueces County. Even someone who is brain dead would realize that both districts would be largely in the city.

97.8% of HD-32 is in Corpus Christi. Most of the area outside the city is in Port Aransas. You aren't seriously advocating for putting Port Aransas and Robstown in the same district? Are you??? Abbott carried both districts in 2018.

HD-90 was 50.7% HCVAP in 2006-2010 ACS. Prior to the 2012 reapportionment it elected an Anglo, who was not the Hispanic candidate of choice. He narrowly hung on in the 2012 primary and was defeated in 2014 with the assistance of an absentee GOTV drive.

HD-95 was 51.2% BCVAP in 2006-2010 ACS (12.7% HCVAP). The districts are somewhat entangled to keep blacks from dominating the districts.

Bexar County is a Democratic gerrymander. Only someone like you would defend HD-117 and HD-118.

71% of Waco is in HD-56, only 29% in HD-12. 71:29 is not almost exactly. When there was last a Democrat representative in the area, he was a hay farmer from Falls County. He would only come into Waco to pick-up the newspaper from his wife's house and drive his kids to school.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1113942769796431874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Nevada is clearly the best example of this. Light to medium blue urban areas that make up 85% of the state but 15% uber red rural areas make it a close state yet the legislature is easy for D's to win.

Texas is another example with the 76/150 districts won by Beto despite it being a R gerrymander

MA-although if R's are narrowly winning statewide they do landslide among districts the R's are in general too spread out to effectively win much.

Iowa-Idk about the state house but the congressional districts are quite favorable to the democrats with the median district about 5-6 points left of the state letting Fred Hubbel win a majority  in 2018.

How was Texas a Republican gerrymander?

For the State House:  

Waco is split almost exactly in half when if it was whole it would make a Safe D district.

Districts 90 and 95 in Tarrant county take in way too many of the hispanics in the county which makes districts 92, 93, 94, 96, and 97 all *just* out of reach of being competitive.

Unlike in Waco which is conveniently made into two GOP seats by cutting up the most Democratic part of the county,  in Travis county district 47 keeps all the most Republican parts of the county whole which makes it a swing seat (GOP seat in 2012) that was only won by a Democrat in 2018.  A similar approach was made in district 52 to the northeast.   All neighboring seats in Travis county are Safe D vote sinks.

District 121 in Bexar county neatly goes from the northern edge of the county perfectly down into the middle of the county while grabbing every Republican leaning precinct the area, almost symmetrically carving out a district that leans just Republican enough to not be competitive.

In Neuces county it's admittedly a failed gerrymander, but again instead of keep Corpus Christi whole (which would be brain dead easy) they split it between districts 32 and 34, trying to make two GOP seats, but 32 would be won by the Democrats in 2012 anyway.   But it's still a swing seat in what should be a Safe D seat.

There are others, but a lot of the gerrymanders in Houston and Dallas Metros have failed recently and it's hard to get into detail about what is happening in those parts.

Corpus Christi is 90% of Nueces County. Even someone who is brain dead would realize that both districts would be largely in the city.

97.8% of HD-32 is in Corpus Christi. Most of the area outside the city is in Port Aransas. You aren't seriously advocating for putting Port Aransas and Robstown in the same district? Are you??? Abbott carried both districts in 2018.

HD-90 was 50.7% HCVAP in 2006-2010 ACS. Prior to the 2012 reapportionment it elected an Anglo, who was not the Hispanic candidate of choice. He narrowly hung on in the 2012 primary and was defeated in 2014 with the assistance of an absentee GOTV drive.

HD-95 was 51.2% BCVAP in 2006-2010 ACS (12.7% HCVAP). The districts are somewhat entangled to keep blacks from dominating the districts.

Bexar County is a Democratic gerrymander. Only someone like you would defend HD-117 and HD-118.

71% of Waco is in HD-56, only 29% in HD-12. 71:29 is not almost exactly. When there was last a Democrat representative in the area, he was a hay farmer from Falls County. He would only come into Waco to pick-up the newspaper from his wife's house and drive his kids to school.

For someone that constantly advocates keeping urban cores whole (Like in the Twin Cities area),  you seem perfectly fine chopping up all the Texas Cities in the state house.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1113942769796431874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Nevada is clearly the best example of this. Light to medium blue urban areas that make up 85% of the state but 15% uber red rural areas make it a close state yet the legislature is easy for D's to win.

Texas is another example with the 76/150 districts won by Beto despite it being a R gerrymander

MA-although if R's are narrowly winning statewide they do landslide among districts the R's are in general too spread out to effectively win much.

Iowa-Idk about the state house but the congressional districts are quite favorable to the democrats with the median district about 5-6 points left of the state letting Fred Hubbel win a majority  in 2018.

How was Texas a Republican gerrymander?

For the State House:  

Waco is split almost exactly in half when if it was whole it would make a Safe D district.

Districts 90 and 95 in Tarrant county take in way too many of the hispanics in the county which makes districts 92, 93, 94, 96, and 97 all *just* out of reach of being competitive.

Unlike in Waco which is conveniently made into two GOP seats by cutting up the most Democratic part of the county,  in Travis county district 47 keeps all the most Republican parts of the county whole which makes it a swing seat (GOP seat in 2012) that was only won by a Democrat in 2018.  A similar approach was made in district 52 to the northeast.   All neighboring seats in Travis county are Safe D vote sinks.

District 121 in Bexar county neatly goes from the northern edge of the county perfectly down into the middle of the county while grabbing every Republican leaning precinct the area, almost symmetrically carving out a district that leans just Republican enough to not be competitive.

In Neuces county it's admittedly a failed gerrymander, but again instead of keep Corpus Christi whole (which would be brain dead easy) they split it between districts 32 and 34, trying to make two GOP seats, but 32 would be won by the Democrats in 2012 anyway.   But it's still a swing seat in what should be a Safe D seat.

There are others, but a lot of the gerrymanders in Houston and Dallas Metros have failed recently and it's hard to get into detail about what is happening in those parts.

Corpus Christi is 90% of Nueces County. Even someone who is brain dead would realize that both districts would be largely in the city.

97.8% of HD-32 is in Corpus Christi. Most of the area outside the city is in Port Aransas. You aren't seriously advocating for putting Port Aransas and Robstown in the same district? Are you??? Abbott carried both districts in 2018.

HD-90 was 50.7% HCVAP in 2006-2010 ACS. Prior to the 2012 reapportionment it elected an Anglo, who was not the Hispanic candidate of choice. He narrowly hung on in the 2012 primary and was defeated in 2014 with the assistance of an absentee GOTV drive.

HD-95 was 51.2% BCVAP in 2006-2010 ACS (12.7% HCVAP). The districts are somewhat entangled to keep blacks from dominating the districts.

Bexar County is a Democratic gerrymander. Only someone like you would defend HD-117 and HD-118.

71% of Waco is in HD-56, only 29% in HD-12. 71:29 is not almost exactly. When there was last a Democrat representative in the area, he was a hay farmer from Falls County. He would only come into Waco to pick-up the newspaper from his wife's house and drive his kids to school.

For someone that constantly advocates keeping urban cores whole (Like in the Twin Cities area),  you seem perfectly fine chopping up all the Texas Cities in the state house.

Huh?

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1113942769796431874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Nevada is clearly the best example of this. Light to medium blue urban areas that make up 85% of the state but 15% uber red rural areas make it a close state yet the legislature is easy for D's to win.

Texas is another example with the 76/150 districts won by Beto despite it being a R gerrymander

MA-although if R's are narrowly winning statewide they do landslide among districts the R's are in general too spread out to effectively win much.

Iowa-Idk about the state house but the congressional districts are quite favorable to the democrats with the median district about 5-6 points left of the state letting Fred Hubbel win a majority  in 2018.

How was Texas a Republican gerrymander?

For the State House:  

Waco is split almost exactly in half when if it was whole it would make a Safe D district.

Districts 90 and 95 in Tarrant county take in way too many of the hispanics in the county which makes districts 92, 93, 94, 96, and 97 all *just* out of reach of being competitive.

Unlike in Waco which is conveniently made into two GOP seats by cutting up the most Democratic part of the county,  in Travis county district 47 keeps all the most Republican parts of the county whole which makes it a swing seat (GOP seat in 2012) that was only won by a Democrat in 2018.  A similar approach was made in district 52 to the northeast.   All neighboring seats in Travis county are Safe D vote sinks.

District 121 in Bexar county neatly goes from the northern edge of the county perfectly down into the middle of the county while grabbing every Republican leaning precinct the area, almost symmetrically carving out a district that leans just Republican enough to not be competitive.

In Neuces county it's admittedly a failed gerrymander, but again instead of keep Corpus Christi whole (which would be brain dead easy) they split it between districts 32 and 34, trying to make two GOP seats, but 32 would be won by the Democrats in 2012 anyway.   But it's still a swing seat in what should be a Safe D seat.

There are others, but a lot of the gerrymanders in Houston and Dallas Metros have failed recently and it's hard to get into detail about what is happening in those parts.

Corpus Christi is 90% of Nueces County. Even someone who is brain dead would realize that both districts would be largely in the city.

97.8% of HD-32 is in Corpus Christi. Most of the area outside the city is in Port Aransas. You aren't seriously advocating for putting Port Aransas and Robstown in the same district? Are you??? Abbott carried both districts in 2018.

HD-90 was 50.7% HCVAP in 2006-2010 ACS. Prior to the 2012 reapportionment it elected an Anglo, who was not the Hispanic candidate of choice. He narrowly hung on in the 2012 primary and was defeated in 2014 with the assistance of an absentee GOTV drive.

HD-95 was 51.2% BCVAP in 2006-2010 ACS (12.7% HCVAP). The districts are somewhat entangled to keep blacks from dominating the districts.

Bexar County is a Democratic gerrymander. Only someone like you would defend HD-117 and HD-118.

71% of Waco is in HD-56, only 29% in HD-12. 71:29 is not almost exactly. When there was last a Democrat representative in the area, he was a hay farmer from Falls County. He would only come into Waco to pick-up the newspaper from his wife's house and drive his kids to school.

For someone that constantly advocates keeping urban cores whole (Like in the Twin Cities area),  you seem perfectly fine chopping up all the Texas Cities in the state house.

Huh?

See your 6R-1D Minnesota 2020 map.

[Calthrina950]

Reviving this thread, I would say that California, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, and Vermont are all examples of states where the Democrats enjoy a distinct geographical advantage or bias. I'd also argue that this is becoming increasingly true of Colorado as well, given the shift of the Denver Metropolitan Area into the Democratic column, and the eroding Republican strength in Douglas and El Paso Counties.

[Roll Roons]

As far as red states go, Nebraska is another. Republicans get absolutely massive margins out of most rural counties, while the two most populous counties of Douglas (Omaha) and Lancaster (Lincoln) cast 45% of the statewide vote and are only light blue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Alaska is an example. Rs pile up huge margins in Mat-Su.

[Calthrina950]

Alaska is an example. Rs pile up huge margins in Mat-Su.

If I recall correctly, the Democrats won the majority of Alaska's boroughs in both 2012 and 2016. Alaska was the only state carried by Trump where he did not win a majority of the land area.

[Calthrina950]

As far as red states go, Nebraska is another. Republicans get absolutely massive margins out of most rural counties, while the two most populous counties of Douglas (Omaha) and Lancaster (Lincoln) cast 45% of the statewide vote and are only light blue.

And Nebraska has had this geographic imbalance for a long time. In 1964, for example, when Lyndon Johnson won it (the last time a Democrat has done so), he carried only 38 of the state's 93 counties, including of course Douglas and Lancaster. Nebraska was one of two states won by Johnson that year where Goldwater won the majority of counties (the other was Florida). Moreover, it's theoretically possible for Democrats to win NE-01 and NE-02 but still lose the state as a whole due to the Republican advantage in NE-03.