States with a democrat geographical bias

[Tartarus Sauce]

As far as red states go, Nebraska is another. Republicans get absolutely massive margins out of most rural counties, while the two most populous counties of Douglas (Omaha) and Lancaster (Lincoln) cast 45% of the statewide vote and are only light blue.

Another red state where this becoming the case is Texas. Unlike most red leaning states where the Democratic strength is overwhelmingly packed into metropolitan areas, it's actually turning into a geographic advantage for them. It's already fairly simple to draw Democratic majority congressional delegations in DRA despite the state being R+5.5, and if IIRC, Beto won 76/150 state house seats despite losing by 2.6 statewide.

The longtime Republican hold on the state as it drifts ever more purple is seriously threatened by this dynamic, which might be a contributing factor to why the Texas GOP is particularly batty in regards to gerrymandering.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As far as red states go, Nebraska is another. Republicans get absolutely massive margins out of most rural counties, while the two most populous counties of Douglas (Omaha) and Lancaster (Lincoln) cast 45% of the statewide vote and are only light blue.

Another red state where this becoming the case is Texas. Unlike most red leaning states where the Democratic strength is overwhelmingly packed into metropolitan areas, it's actually turning into a geographic advantage for them. It's already fairly simple to draw Democratic majority congressional delegations in DRA despite the state being R+5.5, and if IIRC, Beto won 76/150 state house seats despite losing by 2.6 statewide.

The longtime Republican hold on the state as it drifts ever more purple is seriously threatened by this dynamic, which might be a contributing factor to why the Texas GOP is particularly batty in regards to gerrymandering.

Partisanship-neutral redistricting would produce a median CD that is roughly 3 points to the left of the state as a whole. Source: I've played around with it quite a few times.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1113942769796431874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Nevada is clearly the best example of this. Light to medium blue urban areas that make up 85% of the state but 15% uber red rural areas make it a close state yet the legislature is easy for D's to win.

Texas is another example with the 76/150 districts won by Beto despite it being a R gerrymander

MA-although if R's are narrowly winning statewide they do landslide among districts the R's are in general too spread out to effectively win much.

Iowa-Idk about the state house but the congressional districts are quite favorable to the democrats with the median district about 5-6 points left of the state letting Fred Hubbel win a majority  in 2018.

How was Texas a Republican gerrymander?

For the State House:  

Waco is split almost exactly in half when if it was whole it would make a Safe D district.

Districts 90 and 95 in Tarrant county take in way too many of the hispanics in the county which makes districts 92, 93, 94, 96, and 97 all *just* out of reach of being competitive.

Unlike in Waco which is conveniently made into two GOP seats by cutting up the most Democratic part of the county,  in Travis county district 47 keeps all the most Republican parts of the county whole which makes it a swing seat (GOP seat in 2012) that was only won by a Democrat in 2018.  A similar approach was made in district 52 to the northeast.   All neighboring seats in Travis county are Safe D vote sinks.

District 121 in Bexar county neatly goes from the northern edge of the county perfectly down into the middle of the county while grabbing every Republican leaning precinct the area, almost symmetrically carving out a district that leans just Republican enough to not be competitive.

In Neuces county it's admittedly a failed gerrymander, but again instead of keep Corpus Christi whole (which would be brain dead easy) they split it between districts 32 and 34, trying to make two GOP seats, but 32 would be won by the Democrats in 2012 anyway.   But it's still a swing seat in what should be a Safe D seat.

There are others, but a lot of the gerrymanders in Houston and Dallas Metros have failed recently and it's hard to get into detail about what is happening in those parts.

Corpus Christi is 90% of Nueces County. Even someone who is brain dead would realize that both districts would be largely in the city.

97.8% of HD-32 is in Corpus Christi. Most of the area outside the city is in Port Aransas. You aren't seriously advocating for putting Port Aransas and Robstown in the same district? Are you??? Abbott carried both districts in 2018.

HD-90 was 50.7% HCVAP in 2006-2010 ACS. Prior to the 2012 reapportionment it elected an Anglo, who was not the Hispanic candidate of choice. He narrowly hung on in the 2012 primary and was defeated in 2014 with the assistance of an absentee GOTV drive.

HD-95 was 51.2% BCVAP in 2006-2010 ACS (12.7% HCVAP). The districts are somewhat entangled to keep blacks from dominating the districts.

Bexar County is a Democratic gerrymander. Only someone like you would defend HD-117 and HD-118.

71% of Waco is in HD-56, only 29% in HD-12. 71:29 is not almost exactly. When there was last a Democrat representative in the area, he was a hay farmer from Falls County. He would only come into Waco to pick-up the newspaper from his wife's house and drive his kids to school.

For someone that constantly advocates keeping urban cores whole (Like in the Twin Cities area),  you seem perfectly fine chopping up all the Texas Cities in the state house.

Huh?

See your 6R-1D Minnesota 2020 map.

I'm pretty sure his MN map had 4 Clinton seats of all things. It gave the GOP a small chance at 6 districts in a wave but it definitely was not 6 1 in 2020.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1113942769796431874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Nevada is clearly the best example of this. Light to medium blue urban areas that make up 85% of the state but 15% uber red rural areas make it a close state yet the legislature is easy for D's to win.

Texas is another example with the 76/150 districts won by Beto despite it being a R gerrymander

MA-although if R's are narrowly winning statewide they do landslide among districts the R's are in general too spread out to effectively win much.

Iowa-Idk about the state house but the congressional districts are quite favorable to the democrats with the median district about 5-6 points left of the state letting Fred Hubbel win a majority  in 2018.

How was Texas a Republican gerrymander?

For the State House:  

Waco is split almost exactly in half when if it was whole it would make a Safe D district.

Districts 90 and 95 in Tarrant county take in way too many of the hispanics in the county which makes districts 92, 93, 94, 96, and 97 all *just* out of reach of being competitive.

Unlike in Waco which is conveniently made into two GOP seats by cutting up the most Democratic part of the county,  in Travis county district 47 keeps all the most Republican parts of the county whole which makes it a swing seat (GOP seat in 2012) that was only won by a Democrat in 2018.  A similar approach was made in district 52 to the northeast.   All neighboring seats in Travis county are Safe D vote sinks.

District 121 in Bexar county neatly goes from the northern edge of the county perfectly down into the middle of the county while grabbing every Republican leaning precinct the area, almost symmetrically carving out a district that leans just Republican enough to not be competitive.

In Neuces county it's admittedly a failed gerrymander, but again instead of keep Corpus Christi whole (which would be brain dead easy) they split it between districts 32 and 34, trying to make two GOP seats, but 32 would be won by the Democrats in 2012 anyway.   But it's still a swing seat in what should be a Safe D seat.

There are others, but a lot of the gerrymanders in Houston and Dallas Metros have failed recently and it's hard to get into detail about what is happening in those parts.

Corpus Christi is 90% of Nueces County. Even someone who is brain dead would realize that both districts would be largely in the city.

97.8% of HD-32 is in Corpus Christi. Most of the area outside the city is in Port Aransas. You aren't seriously advocating for putting Port Aransas and Robstown in the same district? Are you??? Abbott carried both districts in 2018.

HD-90 was 50.7% HCVAP in 2006-2010 ACS. Prior to the 2012 reapportionment it elected an Anglo, who was not the Hispanic candidate of choice. He narrowly hung on in the 2012 primary and was defeated in 2014 with the assistance of an absentee GOTV drive.

HD-95 was 51.2% BCVAP in 2006-2010 ACS (12.7% HCVAP). The districts are somewhat entangled to keep blacks from dominating the districts.

Bexar County is a Democratic gerrymander. Only someone like you would defend HD-117 and HD-118.

71% of Waco is in HD-56, only 29% in HD-12. 71:29 is not almost exactly. When there was last a Democrat representative in the area, he was a hay farmer from Falls County. He would only come into Waco to pick-up the newspaper from his wife's house and drive his kids to school.

For someone that constantly advocates keeping urban cores whole (Like in the Twin Cities area),  you seem perfectly fine chopping up all the Texas Cities in the state house.

Huh?

See your 6R-1D Minnesota 2020 map.

I'm pretty sure his MN map had 4 Clinton seats of all things. It gave the GOP a small chance at 6 districts in a wave but it definitely was not 6 1 in 2020.

Point being it combined St Paul and Minneapolis.

[It’s so Joever]

Maybe Tennessee because all the Republicans are in the Far East while the Democrats are a bit more evenly dispersed everywhere else generally.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

South Carolina?

[Unelectable Bystander]

Maybe Tennessee because all the Republicans are in the Far East while the Democrats are a bit more evenly dispersed everywhere else generally.

I actually think Tennessee has an R bias because Dems really only get any votes from 4 places. Although they’re spread out throughout the state, Memphis and Chattanooga are both in far corners of the state while Nashville and Knoxville are surrounded in every direction by huge R margins. For example, 538 D gerrymander still produces a 7-2 split and the most competitive D opportunity seat  has to involve Nashville with the eastern cities since you can’t get a competitive seat out of eastern Tennessee alone.

I think this Dem clustering applies much the same to Maryland which is mentioned earlier in the thread. It leans hard D due to gerrymandering but I think R’s are actually spaced efficiently for how few of them exist there

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xyC1cksjyJJHSPyEZa4FiPExZ5anWCPRPyUJvAZzhqg/edit

I have scores for every state on here. Generally, Dems get strong scores in the North East where they are pretty evenly dispersed (MA, CT), states where rurals are hyper Republican (NE, NV, TX), or states in the south where black communities have low turnout (AL, LA)

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Its not hard to draw a Florida Congressional map for the 2010s where Clinton, Nelson, and Gillum all win a majority of Districts due to favorable geography.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The answer is Massachusetts. With 9 congressional seats and state that’s around 30-40% republican it’s shocking that you genuinely cannot make a safe republican seat. Only one county did trump break 40%

[Skill and Chance]

As far as red states go, Nebraska is another. Republicans get absolutely massive margins out of most rural counties, while the two most populous counties of Douglas (Omaha) and Lancaster (Lincoln) cast 45% of the statewide vote and are only light blue.

Another red state where this becoming the case is Texas. Unlike most red leaning states where the Democratic strength is overwhelmingly packed into metropolitan areas, it's actually turning into a geographic advantage for them. It's already fairly simple to draw Democratic majority congressional delegations in DRA despite the state being R+5.5, and if IIRC, Beto won 76/150 state house seats despite losing by 2.6 statewide.

The longtime Republican hold on the state as it drifts ever more purple is seriously threatened by this dynamic, which might be a contributing factor to why the Texas GOP is particularly batty in regards to gerrymandering.

This is very underrated in the world of disputed elections.  We are careening toward a scenario where a Dem-majority Texas legislature challenges narrow GOP statewide wins and everyone opportunistically flips their current positions on this subject.