State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Seems kind of pointless having a runoff that close to the general election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Seems kind of pointless having a runoff that close to the general election.

The Mississippi legislature isn't up for election again until 2023.

They could still hold the special elections in November and not have any extra costs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One upcoming one in Washington:

https://twitter.com/MichaelJStern1/status/1472392463058972674

Both Reps are Democrats and this is a seat Biden won by double digits.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For the record not only does the Jacksonville City Council have a Republican majority, all five of the at-large seats except previously this one are Republican-held. Jacksonville also has a Republican mayor: https://ballotpedia.org/Jacksonville,_Florida

Obviously this isn't good news for Democrats or "no big deal" considering both parties really played up the election but municipal elections aren't usually a good barometer of national elections and can be skewed by issues that have no relevance nationally.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By the is the Jacksonville election all of Duval or just the city itself? The county was Biden +4 but the city was Biden +5.5.

The non-Jacksonville municipalities have their own governments so just the city. Still the last time all of these at-large seats were up the Republicans won 4/5 of the seats. Obviously a much whiter electorate than the Presidential one. And thus also not really a good barometer, based on the 2019 results you'd assume Trump would be running pretty strong in the area when Duval County actually swung against him and Biden was the first Democrat to win it since 1976. (Hillary probably narrowly won the city of Jacksonville even if not Duval County though and Obama might've squeaked out a victory in 2008 as well.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Some quick research: The Republican is black (usually doesn't matter but if he has some ties to the local black community that could help in a very low turnout special election) and he owns a few car dealerships meaning he has high name recognition with his name everywhere on billboards in the area...and of course it was a dirt low turnout election the Democrats probably didn't even try for considering it was still a Safe R seat. But winning over 90% in a district that's over 30% black means he either actually won the black vote or turnout utterly cratered in heavily black areas. We'll have to look at the precinct results to see.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Some quick research: The Republican is black (usually doesn't matter but if he has some ties to the local black community that could help in a very low turnout special election) and he owns a few car dealerships meaning he has high name recognition with his name everywhere on billboards in the area...and of course it was a dirt low turnout election the Democrats probably didn't even try for considering it was still a Safe R seat. But winning over 90% in a district that's over 30% black means he either actually won the black vote or turnout utterly cratered in heavily black areas. We'll have to look at the precinct results to see.

My guess is more the latter though maybe he could've come closer with the black vote than usual. The thing is there's a notable chunk the black electorate well above 50% who in this day and age will never vote GOP no matter what.

Probably the closest example we'll get is Joseph Cao's victory in LA-02 in 2008. Cao probably holds the record for Republican Representative who represented the most Democratic district of the 21st century and possibly since when the South was crazy and unpredictable, but regardless for those too young to remember it (wow I feel old), the Democratic incumbent Bill Jefferson was incredibly blatantly corrupt (famous for the FBI finding a brick of cash in his freezer) and the Democrats tried to oust him in 2006, but he won the runoff against another more liberal Democrat by appealing to Republicans on cultural issues since he was one of those socially conservative black Democrats and though his opponent was black too she didn't really appeal to the community and won on a bizarre black + Republican coalition. In 2008 the Democrats kind of gave up, but in a strange twist Hurricane Gustav postponed the primary which was actually held election day, and the runoff after that, Jefferson was facing the Republican Cao so most people assumed he would win again.

However Cao was able to narrowly win. And the precinct results are fascinating, Cao not only won the Republican areas but also the white liberal areas in New Orleans that voted heavily for Obama, and in the predominately black wards...turnout fell through the floor. One speculated theory is Jefferson would've pulled through on Election Day, but since this was held about a month after Obama's victory, the sort of tribalism that made black voters support him no longer applied and they didn't care about the "he's a crook but at least he's one of us" sort of mindset too much. Not many of them voted for Cao, but many of them just stayed home no longer caring about Jefferson enough to bail him out. Of course Cao lost big in 2010 to Cedric Richmond.

Again we need precinct results to really see what happened here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?

Oh huh this was a republican seat, right ? Did it vote for Biden ?

I drew it in DRA...Biden 47.17% - Trump 51.26%. All the precincts were close, Biden only won one.

Also:
Ossoff 43.54% - Perdue 56.46%
Warnock 44.77% - Loeffler 55.23%
Abrams 41.37%   - Kemp 57.06%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Boom:

DEM pickup.

https://twitter.com/MIRSnews/status/1521667310121066498?s=20&t=OAh8IUcrqk-zz...

This seat was Trump 57.28% - Biden 40.77%.

Even Schuette 54.05% - Whitmer 42.29%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.

Whitmer can probably breathe a bit easier at least.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Democrats held Pennsylvania's 5th Senate District which was vacant after the incumbent was elected to a judge spot in November.

DILLON, JAMES
(DEM)
54.05%
    Votes: 14,510
OROPEZA, SAMUEL E
(REP)
45.95%
    Votes: 12,335

Was a Biden +10 district, so that seems to be an R+2 swing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/MaineSDCC/status/1536884801294290944?t=G2xcLhuNMa_vzuDFPodGG...

Outperforming both Biden and Mills for the record.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/DanRShafer/status/1595434685764599808
D-trending seat, but probably still out of reach at this time, Trump+4 in 2020 (I imagine Evers lost it by a similar margin based on the areas.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/WCIA3/status/1601320230008934400?t=E48bF6QWQFGOWZqqc6X8xQ&am...

Sad, guy was only 45 and that sounds like a terrible way to go.

District is Safe D but a special could provide some interesting insight on college campus turnout.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Biden and Fetterman both won this seat by 25+ points, there's absolutely no excuse for a Democratic defeat, although also extremely unlikely. But if Republicans can limit it to just a 15 point loss...well also not a good look but in a low turnout election tough to gauge much from. I guess we'll see.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

We finally got a special election in a diverse urbanized district with a lot of people who are neither white nor black.  This result in NYC seems broadly consistent with R's outright winning the Hispanic and Asian vote in 2024? 

Not with single digits turnout, and also mostly driven by NYC issues and patterns that don't matter outside of NYC.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota State Representative Ruth Richardson has resigned to become the regional director of Planned Parenthood, thus setting up a special election in 52B to be held on normal election day in November.

This is an essentially Safe DFL seat, I don't have Biden numbers post redistricting but Walz won it by 30 points and even Ellison did by 19, but as always the margins might be interesting. Notably this is actually the seat where I went to work for over a decade, and technically is still where I'm based out of even working at home, although the office will be closing at the end of the month.

But what makes it even more interesting is that precursors to this seat elected both Tim Pawlenty and Doug Wardlow, the rabidly anti-LGBT whackjob who ran for Attorney General in 2018 and probably is why Ellison is AG today. Although he only served a single term after riding the 2010 wave, and at the time the seat didn't include the Mendota area which has always been fairly DFL, even when Pawlenty was in the State House (it wasn't part of the district then either.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Special election in Minnesota watch:

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-news/charges-minnesota-lawmaker-was-twice-the-legal-limit-at-time-of-arrest

0.16 BAC. Pretty serious.

I do expect there will be calls for her to resign. Incidentally in 2022 her performance sort looks like just on the cusp of possibly competitive and she won by 7 points but was a clear underperformer, but it's a district Walz won by 17 points and even Ellison slightly outran her by winning by 8 points. So really tough to see how this seat flips in a special election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Turnout was decent for a December special election but still much lower than main elections, so wouldn't read too much into it, but interesting is that D dropoff by percentage occurred more in some precincts than others.

MENDOTA HTS P-2

Virnig (DFL) 246 50.72% Lonnquist (R) 235 48.45% Walz (DFL) 925 59.56% Jensen (R) 607 39.09%

MENDOTA HTS P-3

Virnig (DFL) 333 63.55% Lonnquist (R) 188 35.88% Walz (DFL) 973 64.48% Jensen (R) 511 33.86%

MENDOTA CITY

Virnig (DFL) 24 68.57% Lonnquist (R) 11 31.43% Walz (DFL) 67 60.91% Jensen (R) 39 35.45%

So in that case actually a swing to the Democrat, but a very small sample, and not even a big sample in the governor race.

EAGAN P-01

Virnig (DFL) 328 57.04% Lonnquist (R) 241 41.91% Walz (DFL) 1,341 59.95% Jensen (R) 849 37.95%

EAGAN P-10

Virnig (DFL) 314 55.58% Lonnquist (R) 241 42.65% Jensen (R) 670 34.88% Walz (DFL) 1,207 62.83%

On a whole Walz won the district 63.92% to 33.94%. But the total number of votes cast (6,618) was lower than Jensen's losing vote total (7,783)
Virnig generally held up better in Eagan than Mendota Heights, but that's not odd at all because she currently sits on the school board that covers Eagan, and Lonnquist is from Mendota Heights. I'm going out on a limb and guessing P-2 is her home precinct. So factors like that plus much lower turnout can give results like this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This makes the State House now tied, although I think it's moot because the legislature isn't in session. And it means it flipping would flip control, meaning that the Democrats aren't going to just ignore it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

The Republican in that Minnesota special election already had a network and ground game set up because she was the candidate for that seat in 2022. That went far in a low turnout election. This seat was unopposed last election so there's no one comparable.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1742368117282558368?t=U-ncYnAgsH1jR7zI...
15 point over performance by a democrat in a heavily black district, more evidence of blexit.

Majority black district in South Carolina for reference.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1742607592596066561

Trump +25 district.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1742607592596066561

Trump +25 district.

Atlanta suburbs or elsewhere?

Columbia County is suburban Augusta, but the district seems to be on the fringes, so kind of a  mix of Augusta suburbs with exurbs and some rural areas (it also stretches outside the county.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I suppose one copium point the Republicans could make is turnout was still fairly low, it was only about 37% of 2022's. But that's not really that bad for a January special, and kind of destroys any narrative that Democrats are demoralized.