State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?

Oh huh this was a republican seat, right ? Did it vote for Biden ?

I drew it in DRA...Biden 47.17% - Trump 51.26%. All the precincts were close, Biden only won one.

Also:
Ossoff 43.54% - Perdue 56.46%
Warnock 44.77% - Loeffler 55.23%
Abrams 41.37%   - Kemp 57.06%

[Matty]

Lib ET gunna be insufferable tonight

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Georgia Race shows solid republican lead.

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/112811/web.285569/#/detail/54500

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Boom:

DEM pickup.

https://twitter.com/MIRSnews/status/1521667310121066498?s=20&t=OAh8IUcrqk-zz...

This seat was Trump 57.28% - Biden 40.77%.

Even Schuette 54.05% - Whitmer 42.29%.

[Matty]

There’s got to be more to the story

Was the gop guy a creep

[Mehmentum]

There’s got to be more to the story

Was the gop guy a creep

He told his daughter that if she got raped she should just lay back and enjoy it.  So yeah, he's an odious piece of sh**t deservedly going down in flames.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

There’s got to be more to the story

Was the gop guy a creep

He told his daughter that if she got raped she should just lay back and enjoy it.  So yeah, he's an odious piece of sh**t deservedly going down in flames.

so a generic republican then

[Adam Griffin]

Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?

Oh huh this was a republican seat, right ? Did it vote for Biden ?

I drew it in DRA...Biden 47.17% - Trump 51.26%. All the precincts were close, Biden only won one.

Also:
Ossoff 43.54% - Perdue 56.46%
Warnock 44.77% - Loeffler 55.23%
Abrams 41.37%   - Kemp 57.06%

Abrams/Warnock/Ossoff Average: R +13.02
Current Results (100% Reporting): R +13.06

[Gass3268]

Pretty good night for Democrats in Michigan

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1521707859590877184?s=20&t=7WVU9r9na-d...

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.

Whitmer can probably breathe a bit easier at least.

[Matty]

I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.

Much better to look at the average swing this year in all races plus polling.....if anything, the outlook has gotten worse for the dems.

I believe the GOP lead on rcp is higher now than it was on this day in 2010.

It just seems kind of hackish in my opinion to continue to argue that 2022 is going to be a precedent defying midterm when 4 years ago arguing that 2018 was going to be an historic D wave when much of the fundamentals remain the same: GCB polling, presidential approval, swing averages in special elections, etc.

I get this board is mostly dem, but it seems like y'all are setting yourself up for disappointment. Elected democrats know what is coming.

The elephant in the room is simple: the repubs only need to flip like 4 seats. If they needed to flip 20, that would be an interesting story/debate.

But 4 seats is a piece of cake when the sitting president is sporting low 40s approvals.

[wbrocks67]

I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.

Much better to look at the average swing this year in all races plus polling.....if anything, the outlook has gotten worse for the dems.

I believe the GOP lead on rcp is higher now than it was on this day in 2010.

It just seems kind of hackish in my opinion to continue to argue that 2022 is going to be a precedent defying midterm when 4 years ago arguing that 2018 was going to be an historic D wave when much of the fundamentals remain the same: GCB polling, presidential approval, swing averages in special elections, etc.

I get this board is mostly dem, but it seems like y'all are setting yourself up for disappointment. Elected democrats know what is coming.

The elephant in the room is simple: the repubs only need to flip like 4 seats. If they needed to flip 20, that would be an interesting story/debate.

But 4 seats is a piece of cake when the sitting president is sporting low 40s approvals.

I wouldn't go by this, considering there was not only way more polling in 2010, but better quality polling, especially for the GCB.

[Progressive Pessimist]

That Michigan result is just the sort of good news I needed to hear after a harrowing day. My sense of inherent cynicism can't help but take over though and make me fear that it was just another Akin-Mourdock-Moore-esque fluke, or because it was a special election, or something. I really don't want to read too much into and have hope for November and beyond. 

Then again, maybe the key to Democrats mitigating the incoming Republican wave is to get them to talk about rape as often as possible. Somehow they are still f***ing up with this and people still actually care?!

Anyway, I said I was going to go back on hiatus a few posts ago, but I think this relatively positive post is the best one to do it on-leave on a high note and all that.

I'll probably be back for the next national travesty! See you then!..._{it shouldn't be long}...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Again always take special elections that coincide with primaries with a huge grain of salt as turnout can often be lopsided. Still MI Dems had a relatively good night considering

[It’s so Joever]

I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.

Much better to look at the average swing this year in all races plus polling.....if anything, the outlook has gotten worse for the dems.

I believe the GOP lead on rcp is higher now than it was on this day in 2010.

It just seems kind of hackish in my opinion to continue to argue that 2022 is going to be a precedent defying midterm when 4 years ago arguing that 2018 was going to be an historic D wave when much of the fundamentals remain the same: GCB polling, presidential approval, swing averages in special elections, etc.

I get this board is mostly dem, but it seems like y'all are setting yourself up for disappointment. Elected democrats know what is coming.

The elephant in the room is simple: the repubs only need to flip like 4 seats. If they needed to flip 20, that would be an interesting story/debate.

But 4 seats is a piece of cake when the sitting president is sporting low 40s approvals.

Um…the swing over the past few months compared to 2020 has not been bad at all, and debatably even positive for Democrats when compared to 2020 if you account for incumbency.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.

Much better to look at the average swing this year in all races plus polling.....if anything, the outlook has gotten worse for the dems.

I believe the GOP lead on rcp is higher now than it was on this day in 2010.

It just seems kind of hackish in my opinion to continue to argue that 2022 is going to be a precedent defying midterm when 4 years ago arguing that 2018 was going to be an historic D wave when much of the fundamentals remain the same: GCB polling, presidential approval, swing averages in special elections, etc.

I get this board is mostly dem, but it seems like y'all are setting yourself up for disappointment. Elected democrats know what is coming.

The elephant in the room is simple: the repubs only need to flip like 4 seats. If they needed to flip 20, that would be an interesting story/debate.

But 4 seats is a piece of cake when the sitting president is sporting low 40s approvals.

Um…the swing over the past few months compared to 2020 has not been bad at all, and debatably even positive for Democrats when compared to 2020 if you account for incumbency.

Special elections do tend to be kinda... miscellaneous and just because a clear trend doesn't present doesn't mean in hindsight people will point out things are tell tale signs that weren't so obvious at the time.

This does kinda make me think though that in 2022, state legistlative Dems won't underperform federal and gov elections as badly as in 2020.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Democrats held Pennsylvania's 5th Senate District which was vacant after the incumbent was elected to a judge spot in November.

DILLON, JAMES
(DEM)
54.05%
    Votes: 14,510
OROPEZA, SAMUEL E
(REP)
45.95%
    Votes: 12,335

Was a Biden +10 district, so that seems to be an R+2 swing.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Democrats held Pennsylvania's 5th Senate District which was vacant after the incumbent was elected to a judge spot in November.

DILLON, JAMES
(DEM)
54.05%
    Votes: 14,510
OROPEZA, SAMUEL E
(REP)
45.95%
    Votes: 12,335

Was a Biden +10 district, so that seems to be an R+2 swing.

weird breakdown as well.
https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1526750265919037440

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats held Pennsylvania's 5th Senate District which was vacant after the incumbent was elected to a judge spot in November.

DILLON, JAMES
(DEM)
54.05%
    Votes: 14,510
OROPEZA, SAMUEL E
(REP)
45.95%
    Votes: 12,335

Was a Biden +10 district, so that seems to be an R+2 swing.

weird breakdown as well.
https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1526750265919037440

Reporting error for that ward, perhaps?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Interestingly, Democrats seem to be holding up a bit better in Pennsylvania in general than in much of the country.  I kinda wonder if the Republican wave may be a little weaker there in November compared to much of the country. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/MaineSDCC/status/1536884801294290944?t=G2xcLhuNMa_vzuDFPodGG...

Outperforming both Biden and Mills for the record.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Kinda strange cause special elections have been a really mixed bag thus far, but again special elections tend to have really weird dynamics and poor turnout that are only a slice of the electorate.

Also, in Maine Democrats seem to ahve residual downballot support, especially in the northern p[art of the state which has gotten much redder on the federal level; kinda the inverse of what we see in VT and NH where Rs tend to outperform by default.

[wbrocks67]

Interestingly, Democrats seem to be holding up a bit better in Pennsylvania in general than in much of the country.  I kinda wonder if the Republican wave may be a little weaker there in November compared to much of the country. 

Pennsylvania tends to buck the national trend quite a bit, we're just a "quirky" state I guess. 2014 is a great example, but again, I will always keep bringing up the 2021 SC race as well. Biden's approval was barely better than it was at that point, and Dems only lost that race by <1%.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/MaineSDCC/status/1536884801294290944?t=G2xcLhuNMa_vzuDFPodGG...

Outperforming both Biden and Mills for the record.

That's a 7 point improvement over 2020 for the dems!