State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Alben Barkley]

Don’t do that Alabama… don’t give me hope.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Don’t do that Alabama… don’t give me hope.

It's crazy how if this overperformance held statewide in AL in 2024 Pres AL would be a swing state.

Obv for a variety of reasons this won't be the case and Trump easily wins Alabama, likely by more than 20%.

[Minnesota Mike]

Hate to be that guy but there is a lot of over reacting to an election with less than 6,000 total votes.

[Indy Texas]

Imagine you're a college educated white person in Madison County.

You work at NASA and were gunning for a promotion when Space Force was due to set up there but then Tommy Tuberville tanked that by taking a sledgehammer to military leadership over abortion.

You and your wife have been having a hard time having a kid and were saving up for IVF but now Republicans have decided you can't do that either.

I'd be Brandonpilled AF by now too.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Don’t do that Alabama… don’t give me hope.

It's crazy how if this overperformance held statewide in AL in 2024 Pres AL would be a swing state.

Obv for a variety of reasons this won't be the case and Trump easily wins Alabama, likely by more than 20%.

It might mean Madison County is in play...Trump's never been that popular here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Don’t do that Alabama… don’t give me hope.

Alabama has already given me great hope.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Fun fact: prior to this literally every single district in both chambers of the Alabama legislature was held by the same party that carried it in 2020. I think the only state in the country for which that was true.

So notable for that. Although a Trump+1 district in a D-trending area makes sense.

[walleye26]

Madison County is probably one of the places Biden could flip in Alabama. Jones won it in 2017, it was close in 2020, and had a big trend leftward 16-20. I think Trump only won it by 8. Since then, I think some of this stuff that the Alabama Supreme Court and Senator Tuberville have done probably have turned off some people there.

[Liminal Trans Girl]

https://twitter.com/DLCC/status/1772797473360072848

Cotton on the roadside, Cotton in the ditch...

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1772807746749927711

Insane.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Madison County is probably one of the places Biden could flip in Alabama. Jones won it in 2017, it was close in 2020, and had a big trend leftward 16-20. I think Trump only won it by 8. Since then, I think some of this stuff that the Alabama Supreme Court and Senator Tuberville have done probably have turned off some people there.

It was Haley's best county in the state by far though technically only Trump's second-worst since he got a lower percentage in a very low-population county (Wilcox) where there were a lot of votes cast for candidates who had dropped out. 

My guess is Trump still narrowly ekes out a win here.

[DrScholl]

Hate to be that guy but there is a lot of over reacting to an election with less than 6,000 total votes.

The problem with that logic is that Democrats have traditionally been on the losing end in these sort of elections. This should have been an easy hold for Republicans, but they lost it big. And it's in exactly the type of area they cannot afford to lose in actual swing states. Once again Democrats have demonstrated that they have solved much of the turnout problems they had in the past.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

One of my worst ever predictions was in 2018 when I predicted that Democrat Peter Joffrion would either defeat Republican Mo (problems) Brooks (or Mo Brooks Mo Problems) or would at least be competitive with him in the Alabama 5th Congressional district because this is the Huntsville based district.

Obviously I was totally wrong about that, but, I did have a point: the (white) people in Huntsville aren't exactly the same as the (white) people in the rest of Alabama.

What I didn't appreciate is that Huntsville just isn't a large enough part of the Congressional district to make enough of a difference.

So, I don't think Democrats should make much of winning a Huntsville based district.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Trump +1 district, by the way. So the flip isn’t a huge surprise, but the margin is sure to be eye popping.

IVF and abortion issues are so toxic for republicans. They want to ban IVF and outlaw contraception which doesn't sit well with most (sane) voters.

Democrats need to turn this into Defund the Police for Republicans: banning IVF and contraception are probably even less popular.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Two Michigan HD elections tonight - Dems need to win both to retain their trifecta. Districts 13 and 25 - seems like they're safe and likely dem, respectively, but will be interesting to see margins, as always.

[ultraviolet]

Both seats are safe, then we can work on NPV compact

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems have officially won both of the special elections in Michigan tonight, and thus have held the state House of Representatives.

[Oryxslayer]

Dem overperformed Biden by 2% or so in HD25. Still waiting on Macomb numbers in the other for a comparison, but Wayne is good for Dems which is why the seat is held.

Edit: NYT seemingly has Macomb but nobody else including the counties own site, Xiong outperformed Biden by about 3% in HD13.

[Tekken_Guy]

Dem overperformed Biden by 2% or so in HD25. Still waiting on Macomb numbers in the other for a comparison, but Wayne is good for Dems which is why the seat is held.

Edit: NYT seemingly has Macomb but nobody else including the counties own site, Xiong outperformed Biden by about 3% in HD13.

Xiong’s performance was very impressive despite low Detroit turnout. She’d be a a top-tier recruit to take on John James one day.

[Oryxslayer]

Dem overperformed Biden by 2% or so in HD25. Still waiting on Macomb numbers in the other for a comparison, but Wayne is good for Dems which is why the seat is held.

Edit: NYT seemingly has Macomb but nobody else including the counties own site, Xiong outperformed Biden by about 3% in HD13.

Xiong’s performance was very impressive despite low Detroit turnout. She’d be a a top-tier recruit to take on John James one day.

Can a Michiganer confirm or deny if she intends to run for the new 13th district? The changes to the state House map to correct for minority access issues didn't change the over partisan seat counts of the map (not a surprise) but it did lurch the 13th specifically towards the Republicans. It would make sense that Dems sought a strong candidates early to hold the seat in November.  

[ultraviolet]

Dem overperformed Biden by 2% or so in HD25. Still waiting on Macomb numbers in the other for a comparison, but Wayne is good for Dems which is why the seat is held.

Edit: NYT seemingly has Macomb but nobody else including the counties own site, Xiong outperformed Biden by about 3% in HD13.

Xiong’s performance was very impressive despite low Detroit turnout. She’d be a a top-tier recruit to take on John James one day.

Can a Michiganer confirm or deny if she intends to run for the new 13th district? The changes to the state House map to correct for minority access issues didn't change the over partisan seat counts of the map (not a surprise) but it did lurch the 13th specifically towards the Republicans. It would make sense that Dems sought a strong candidates early to hold the seat in November.  

No idea but she probably should. Looks to be becoming a D+5 seat instead of D+30. She'd definitely be favored as an incumbent based on her performances in the northern, white parts of the current seat. Those parts overlap with the new district, so being stronger there than in the Wayne County precincts is a good sign for her.

[Mexican Wolf]

Republicans held onto PA House District 139 in a special election tonight, although the results narrowed from 61%-39% in 2022 to 58%-42% tonight.

[Nyvin]

Republicans held onto PA House District 139 in a special election tonight, although the results narrowed from 61%-39% in 2022 to 58%-42% tonight.

139 is in the northeast area too, east of Scranton.  Not a place someone would expect a Dem over-performance.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1782959549185503245