State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Roll Roons]

Looks like an underperformance in minnesota

Not everything's reported yet, but yes. I'm surprised. I figured this is the exact kind of district where Democrats would hold up very well.

[DrScholl]

The recurring themes of these special elections is either that the GOP is not generating enthusiasm or that Democrats are turning out voters despite being the incumbent party nationally. One of my theories is that Republicans are relying more and more on a set of unreliable voters that Trump brought into the fold that care only about Trump.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

At 80% reported, MN SD-52B is only D +16.7, underperforming Biden's 29 and even Clinton's 18.

Maybe Florida is just trending left and Minnesota is just trending right. Or special elections don't mean much.

[Minnesota Mike]

Everybody has something to hang their hat on tonight. I didn't expect 54B to be Biden/Trump numbers, this is an area of the state where Trump is toxic and ran well behind generic Republicans, but I expected more like Tina Smith's +23 than the +16-18 it is likely to end up. Oh well.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Obviously this is a very underwhelming result for the GOP, but it's worth noting that Florida's rightward shift isn't just because of Miami-Dade County.

The cause of the shift in Miami-Dade; Hispanic Clinton-Trump voters, is the same as the cause of the shift statewide.

In some places like Osceola and parts of Tampa, yes. But it's more because of the conservative white retirees flooding into the state.

Democrats have collapsed in counties like Volusia, Pasco and Hernando. Others like Collier, Lee, Sarasota, Manatee, Lake, Brevard, Sumter aren't getting worse for them percentage-wise but are continuing to produce bigger raw vote margins for Republicans that favorable trends in the Jacksonville metro and Seminole just can't overcome.

Rubio 22 barely outperformed Scott 18 in Sumter (and underperformed in the villages), despite way outperforming overall.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Final MN SD-52B results: D +17.5. Was Clinton +18.3, Biden +29.1. Suburban Minneapolis district.

[Roll Roons]

Final MN SD-52B results: D +17.5. Was Clinton +18.3, Biden +29.1.

Eyeballing it, I would think this seat is at least 70-75% white and 55-60% college-educated. Considering that, pretty weak for Democrats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Turnout was decent for a December special election but still much lower than main elections, so wouldn't read too much into it, but interesting is that D dropoff by percentage occurred more in some precincts than others.

MENDOTA HTS P-2

Virnig (DFL) 246 50.72% Lonnquist (R) 235 48.45% Walz (DFL) 925 59.56% Jensen (R) 607 39.09%

MENDOTA HTS P-3

Virnig (DFL) 333 63.55% Lonnquist (R) 188 35.88% Walz (DFL) 973 64.48% Jensen (R) 511 33.86%

MENDOTA CITY

Virnig (DFL) 24 68.57% Lonnquist (R) 11 31.43% Walz (DFL) 67 60.91% Jensen (R) 39 35.45%

So in that case actually a swing to the Democrat, but a very small sample, and not even a big sample in the governor race.

EAGAN P-01

Virnig (DFL) 328 57.04% Lonnquist (R) 241 41.91% Walz (DFL) 1,341 59.95% Jensen (R) 849 37.95%

EAGAN P-10

Virnig (DFL) 314 55.58% Lonnquist (R) 241 42.65% Jensen (R) 670 34.88% Walz (DFL) 1,207 62.83%

On a whole Walz won the district 63.92% to 33.94%. But the total number of votes cast (6,618) was lower than Jensen's losing vote total (7,783)
Virnig generally held up better in Eagan than Mendota Heights, but that's not odd at all because she currently sits on the school board that covers Eagan, and Lonnquist is from Mendota Heights. I'm going out on a limb and guessing P-2 is her home precinct. So factors like that plus much lower turnout can give results like this.

[Brittain33]

Am I understanding right, both special elections showed 2016 results?

[jvmh2009]

Could it be that the R had run in more campaigns as was known more+ Virnig being a bad candidate?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Changing my predictions:

Minnesota: Likely D > Tossup.

Florida: Safe R > Tossup.

_{(not really)}

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Why have recent special elections shown Republicans outperforming massively with college educated whites (ie NH, MA, MN, and even MS-Gov) while underperforming with Cubans?

[ottermax]

Why have recent special elections shown Republicans outperforming massively with college educated whites (ie NH, MA, MN, and even MS-Gov) while underperforming with Cubans?

I don't think we have enough evidence to make this claim. If you look at other state elections this November such as Virginia and Kentucky, Democrats did well.

Perhaps there's a slight anti-incumbent mood right now, but again not enough evidence to support that either.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Why have recent special elections shown Republicans outperforming massively with college educated whites (ie NH, MA, MN, and even MS-Gov) while underperforming with Cubans?

I don't think we have enough evidence to make this claim. If you look at other state elections this November such as Virginia and Kentucky, Democrats did well.

Perhaps there's a slight anti-incumbent mood right now, but again not enough evidence to support that either.

Democrats did not do well in Virginia relative to Biden 2020, and Kentucky saw the largest left trends in the Appalachia coalfields.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why have recent special elections shown Republicans outperforming massively with college educated whites (ie NH, MA, MN, and even MS-Gov) while underperforming with Cubans?

I don't think we have enough evidence to make this claim. If you look at other state elections this November such as Virginia and Kentucky, Democrats did well.

Perhaps there's a slight anti-incumbent mood right now, but again not enough evidence to support that either.

Democrats did not do well in Virginia relative to Biden 2020, and Kentucky saw the largest left trends in the Appalachia coalfields.

In Virginia the Republicans threw all they had into those races though. Investment, I feel, is becoming an underrated aspect of campaigns these days.

[Kevinstat]

Maine State Representative Lois Galgay Reckitt (D-South Portland) died on October 30.  No special election has been called yet (the South Portland City Council would have to send a letter to the Governor asking her to call a special election, which will probably happen since there's over a year left on her term and the special election could coincide with Maine's Presidential Primary on March 5 (while such a date might benefit Republicans the seat is rock-solid D nowadays; it's on the northeast end of South Portland while it's the western end that used to sometimes elect Republicans into the mid-2000s (decade)).  Also, terms beginning on or after the third Wednesday in June of the odd year (so in the last ~73% of a term considering that terms start on the first Wednesday in December after the election) no longer count as terms for term-limits purposes under a law change enacted this year, so there's no reason why a prospective successor (and Rep. Reckitt or Galgay Reckitt (not sure if it was a dual but non-hyphenated last name or if she just liked to have her middle (and maiden) name shown on documents and such) would have been term-limited next year so people may already have been planning to run) wouldn't want to get into office sooner.

South Portland council sets November 2024 vote to fill vacant seat in Legislature (Portland Press Herald)

The heading of the article is not entirely accurate, as there was already going to be an election for the seat (and all 186 "full fledged" (my own terminology)* Legislative seats) in November 2024, and that's the only election there will be for that seat in November.  This isn't a New York State or Texas congressional district.

The short time frame between when the election would most likely have been (March 5, coinciding with the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in Maine) and the statutory end of the Second Regular Session of the 131st Maine Legislature (terms were for only one year until the one elected in 1880 apart from seemingly one 2-year term in the 1840s, which is how the Maine Legislature got ahead of the U.S. Congress in terms of the number of the terms) was cited as a main reason in the City Council vote against requesting that a special election be scheduled, as well as the cost involved in printing the special election ballots even if the state would pay for that, which councilors didn't seem sure about.  It's an uber-safe D seat.  It was the other end of South Portland which was competitive back in the 1990s and 2000s (decade), but even it seems safe D nowadays.

*Maine also has largely non-voting seats (although preferences in the committees they sit in are noted) for the Penobscot Nation, Passamaquoddy Tribe and the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians, but elections for those seats in tribal council or whatever are likely held on a different day.  As it turns out, the Penobscot and the Maliseet (the latter of whom only got their seat in late 2011 or early 2012) have left their seats unfilled in protest of what they see as unfair treatment by the state.  The Passamaquoddy had joined the Penobscot in the initial withdrawal of their representatives in May 2015 several years ago, but they appointed a member following the 2016 elections and the Maliseet chose not to appoint a member after the 2018 elections and from then on.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1734313618555244994

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1734313618555244994

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1734315938462249173
https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1734316245590413443

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oklahoma results tonight: https://results.okelections.us/OKER/?elecDate=20231212

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Early + Mail is D +8. Looks like a large Democratic overperformance though the total is only 500 or so votes right now.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Still D +8 with 20% EDay precinct reporting. Could be a flip of a Trump +20 district.

[GeorgiaModerate]

5 of 23 precincts reporting:

Candidate Choice   Absentee Mail   Early Voting   Election Day   Total Votes   
Percent

DUSTY DEEVERS (REP)   111   137   257   505   
46.12%

LARRY BUSH (DEM)   118   172   300   590   
53.88%

Total   229   309   557   1,095

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The caveat is that the EDay reporting precincts look disproportionately bluer from the more densely populated parts of the district. Only 1/7 of the rural part has reported with 6/21 overall.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Based on completed precinct results looks like a 20-25% R underperformance versus 2022’s R +35 result.

[GeorgiaModerate]

10 of 23 precincts reporting:

Candidate Choice Absentee Mail Early Voting Election Day Total Votes
Percent

DUSTY DEEVERS (REP) 111 137 791 1,039
48.42%

LARRY BUSH (DEM) 118 172 817 1,107
51.58%

Total 229 309 1,608 2,146