State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[ReallySuper]

everyones paying attention to a different election in ky rn, but theres a special house election in south lexington. it should be an easy dem hold, esp. with beshears coattail effect. its more notable bc of the minor controversy in the democratic nomination--basically, a moderate/establishment member of the party committee that selected the nominee, adrielle camuel, was chosen by her colleagues on the committee to be the nominee, over emma curtis (a young trans activist who was pretty visible during the protests against sb150 this spring and had raised $10,000 and gotten lots of endorsements in just one month of her campaign). even though this process was obviously completely unfair, emma curtis conceded the primary and endorsed camuel... until the latter said in a tv interview that she got into the race in order to combat the "extremes on both sides" of the debate over lgbtq+ rights. after pushback, she 'clarified' her statement by saying she was not talking about sb150 but about democrats who attack those in their own party and therefore help the gop (lmao). then emma curtis rescinded her endorsement in september.

this wont really affect the result but like its a total fail on the part of camuel and the party

[Oryxslayer]

Just a copy-paste of everything that is up tonight:

- Kentucky HD-93, what should be a safe D seat in and outside Lexington.

- Maine HD-50, a safe D small-town coastal seat. Uncontested Dem.

- Massachusetts Senate, Hampshire and Worcester. Potentially competitive district covering the rurals west west of Worcester, but including a bit of the city and a number of suburban towns. Dem held but buy a <10% margin in 2022.

- New Hampshire Hillsborough HD-03: A safe D seat in downtown Nashua.

- Rhode Island SD-01, uber-D majority minority seat in downtown Providence.

- South Carolina SD-42, a uber-D plurality African American district in North Charleston.

- Texas HD-02, A safe R district in East Texas.  But because of the jungle primary special election rules, and that there are 5 republican candidates,  there will probably be a runoff.

[Oryxslayer]

Dem won the KY race, something like 57.5-42.5. Nowhere near the blowout expected given the governor race, closer to the national numbers. Perhaps the issue illustrated above left some tarnish.

Dems obviously win the Rhode island seat in a landside, and are the declared winners in the Maine one.

[Oryxslayer]

TX HD-02 is going to a runoff between two Republicans, as expected.

Dems win 82-18 in SC SD-42

[ReallySuper]

Dem won the KY race, something like 57.5-42.5. Nowhere near the blowout expected given the governor race, closer to the national numbers. Perhaps the issue illustrated above left some tarnish.

Dems obviously win the Rhode island seat in a landside, and are the declared winners in the Maine one.

by my calculation, beshear outpolled the dem house candidate by 10.5 points in her district (68.8% to 58.3%) and won every precinct in it but one (where he tied cameron exactly). one of the biggest gaps was in camuel's worst precinct, where she got just 34% of the vote but beshear won it with 51.5%

[Splash]

Two Democrats in the Michigan State House won elections for mayor yesterday. On the one hand, this means that the Democrats will lose their functioning majority in the chamber for a couple of months, but it'll also mean that we'll have two special elections. Both of the seats are Safe D, IIRC.

[Roll Roons]

Republicans won the MA State Senate race by over 8 points. I guess there's nowhere to go but up when you're at rock bottom, but it's a start.

Apparently the new state GOP chair put a serious effort into flipping it. According to my buddy who used to work for Baker's campaign, former chair Jim Lyons was basically the Kelli Ward of MA in that he totally destroyed the state GOP apparatus, but got no attention because the state is already so blue. It's good that they're at least trying to turn things around now.

It won't become competitive at the federal level anytime soon, but down the road, I think MA is way more likely to elect another Republican governor than MD is.

[cg41386]

Republicans won the MA State Senate race by over 8 points. I guess there's nowhere to go but up when you're at rock bottom, but it's a start.

Apparently the new state GOP chair put a serious effort into flipping it. According to my buddy who used to work for Baker's campaign, former chair Jim Lyons was basically the Kelli Ward of MA in that he totally destroyed the state GOP apparatus, but got no attention because the state is already so blue. It's good that they're at least trying to turn things around now.

It won't become competitive at the federal level anytime soon, but down the road, I think MA is way more likely to elect another Republican governor than MD is.

MA has always been open to electing the "right" kind of GOP governors.

[Duke of York]

Two Democrats in the Michigan State House won elections for mayor yesterday. On the one hand, this means that the Democrats will lose their functioning majority in the chamber for a couple of months, but it'll also mean that we'll have two special elections. Both of the seats are Safe D, IIRC.

when will the specials be?

[Kevinstat]

Maine State Representative Lois Galgay Reckitt (D-South Portland) died on October 30.  No special election has been called yet (the South Portland City Council would have to send a letter to the Governor asking her to call a special election, which will probably happen since there's over a year left on her term and the special election could coincide with Maine's Presidential Primary on March 5 (while such a date might benefit Republicans the seat is rock-solid D nowadays; it's on the northeast end of South Portland while it's the western end that used to sometimes elect Republicans into the mid-2000s (decade)).  Also, terms beginning on or after the third Wednesday in June of the odd year (so in the last ~73% of a term considering that terms start on the first Wednesday in December after the election) no longer count as terms for term-limits purposes under a law change enacted this year, so there's no reason why a prospective successor (and Rep. Reckitt or Galgay Reckitt (not sure if it was a dual but non-hyphenated last name or if she just liked to have her middle (and maiden) name shown on documents and such) would have been term-limited next year so people may already have been planning to run) wouldn't want to get into office sooner.

[Virginiá]

Two Democrats in the Michigan State House won elections for mayor yesterday. On the one hand, this means that the Democrats will lose their functioning majority in the chamber for a couple of months, but it'll also mean that we'll have two special elections. Both of the seats are Safe D, IIRC.

when will the specials be?

https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/whitmer-calls-for-special-election-to-fill-seats-in-michigan-legislature/

In a letter to Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Whitmer requested a special primary election to be held on Jan. 30, 2024, and a general election on April 16.

Republican and Democratic candidates who wish to run for the seats must file affidavits of identity and nominating petitions or filing fee by 4 p.m. on Monday, Nov. 27.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reminder: the Minnesota Legislative District 52B special election is tonight.  Results will be here after polls close at 8pm CST.  The seat is Safe DFL.

[Minnesota Mike]

Reminder: the Minnesota Legislative District 52B special election is tonight.  Results will be here after polls close at 8pm CST.  The seat is Safe DFL.

Special election in FL HD 118 as well. It's in Miami-Dade county so past results have been all over the map but the last occupant was a Republican who won by a big margin, 68-32.

 https://enr.electionsfl.org/DAD/3465/Summary/

Trump won this district 58-42

[Minnesota Mike]

FL HD-118 after mail/in person early.

Mike Redondo (REP) 50.98% 3,841

Johnny Gonzalo Farias (DEM) 46.28% 3,487

Francisco 'Frank' De La Paz (NPA) 2.75% 207

Not a lot of election day votes but what there are should favor the Republican.

[Devils30]

Pretty big underperformance in such a red trending district for the GOP.

[Minnesota Mike]

With 47 of 51 election day precincts in. Nearly final results.

Mike Redondo (REP) 51.71% 4,505

Johnny Gonzalo Farias (DEM) 45.71% 3,982

Francisco 'Frank' De La Paz (NPA) 2.58% 225

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1732206362363310544?t=8nAJjDeAbMO3kT6I-wWsn...

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1732213143865045344?t=65H82mGH980w6dqESXO2U...

I've seen some speculation that DeSantis's plummeting approvals from his shamble of a presidential campaign,  and the recent news about the state GOP chair, are to blame for this.

Though we won't have too speculate too hard, there's another FL special in a much more Dem seat in a few weeks.

[Brittain33]

Can’t read too much into this when turnout was so abysmal. There were more than 57,000 votes cast here in 2022. Although I guess it’s surprising any time when Republican turnout is as bad as Democratic turnout in Florida.

[Minnesota Mike]

Before the polls close in MN-52B some past margins:

Biden (20) +29
Smith (20) +23
Walz (22) +30
Ellison (22) +19
Richardson* (22) +24

* DFL state Rep who won the seat in 2022 and resigned causing this special.

[Atlas Force]

Lol

https://twitter.com/ElonMusgraves/status/1732203221194506654

[Roll Roons]

Obviously this is a very underwhelming result for the GOP, but it's worth noting that Florida's rightward shift isn't just because of Miami-Dade County.

[jvmh2009]

Looks like an underperformance in minnesota

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It should also be noted that the Dem in this Miami-Dade special, who almost matched Nelson/Gillum 2018 numbers Districtwide, was very much an unserious perennial candidate.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Obviously this is a very underwhelming result for the GOP, but it's worth noting that Florida's rightward shift isn't just because of Miami-Dade County.

The cause of the shift in Miami-Dade; Hispanic Clinton-Trump voters, is the same as the cause of the shift statewide.

[Roll Roons]

Obviously this is a very underwhelming result for the GOP, but it's worth noting that Florida's rightward shift isn't just because of Miami-Dade County.

The cause of the shift in Miami-Dade; Hispanic Clinton-Trump voters, is the same as the cause of the shift statewide.

In some places like Osceola and parts of Tampa, yes. But it's more because of the conservative white retirees flooding into the state.

Democrats have collapsed in counties like Volusia, Pasco and Hernando. Others like Collier, Lee, Sarasota, Manatee, Lake, Brevard, Sumter aren't getting worse for them percentage-wise but are continuing to produce bigger raw vote margins for Republicans that favorable trends in the Jacksonville metro and Seminole just can't overcome.