Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[DC Al Fine]

I have to dispute the "Ford Nation" and the "stop the NDP" explanations a bit.

The Tories consistently led the Ontario polls for years, mostly at or above 40% for years, under a succession of leaders, with the NDP competing for the top spot, and the wheels falling off for the Liberals being relatively late events.

To put a slightly different spin on Frank's take. Did you seriously consider voting for the Ford-Tories in 2018?

I did not. Caveat being that my views have changed since then, and I lived in Ottawa Centre which is purely NDP vs Liberal. I ended up voting Liberal.

Would 2021 Laddicus Finch have voted PC? With hindsight, no, I'm not a fan of the Ford government and still a Liberal member who is locally active. Without hindsight? I would have considered it. Never been a fan of the Fords, but I might have seen the PCs as a decent, moderate alternative to an increasingly tired and underperforming Liberal government.

I'm probably not the kind of moderate that O'Toole or Ford would go for, however. I'm not culturally conservative at all, more temperamentally and fiscally. I might have been the type of person who voted for Harper's CPC in 2008/2011, but I wasn't old enough to vote then.

Thank you for the clarification.

[DC Al Fine]

When do I get my "Maritime Alienation" thinkpieces?

[DC Al Fine]

On a totally different note:



I was looking through some Quebec election results (see 2014 above) and noticed that something puzzling.

The Chaudière-Appalaches region is one of the few parts of Quebec that the Tories do well in. I would expect that ADQ/CAQ to win it as well. However the Liberals seem to have had surprising strength here until CAQ's majority win. Anyone know why?

[Хahar 🤔]

Exactly I am from BC and BC is the most Western province and largest in West and is in many ways more aligned with Ontario than Alberta or Saskatchewan.

If this were the case, then the Reform Party wouldn't have won a huge majority of BC constituencies in 1993 and the Liberal Party would have won even a single BC constituency in 1980. More recently, in 2019, the Conservative Party won the most votes and the most seats in British Columbia; the only other provinces where that was the case were Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. It might be true that residents of downtown Vancouver feel more connected to downtown Toronto than they do to the rest of the West, but voting patterns certainly do not suggest that this feeling is shared by the electorate of British Columbia in general.

[mileslunn]

Exactly I am from BC and BC is the most Western province and largest in West and is in many ways more aligned with Ontario than Alberta or Saskatchewan.

If this were the case, then the Reform Party wouldn't have won a huge majority of BC constituencies in 1993 and the Liberal Party would have won even a single BC constituency in 1980. More recently, in 2019, the Conservative Party won the most votes and the most seats in British Columbia; the only other provinces where that was the case were Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. It might be true that residents of downtown Vancouver feel more connected to downtown Toronto than they do to the rest of the West, but voting patterns certainly do not suggest that this feeling is shared by the electorate of British Columbia in general.

That was true in 90s, largely over Charlottetown and Meech Lake Accord.  But today it is anything but.  If you look at raw percentage, Tory share in BC usually not far off Ontario; it was 34% in BC, 33% in Ontario in 2019.  Reason Tories do a lot better in seats in BC is NDP and Greens much stronger in BC than Ontario so stronger splits.  In 2011 when Liberals imploded, Tories did better in Ontario than BC despite similar percentages 44.4% in Ontario vs. 45.6% in BC.  Reason is better splits in Ontario.

By contrast in Alberta, Tory vote has been at least 20 points higher than BC in every election post merger while in Ontario biggest variance since merger has been 5 points.  Peace River part of BC only part that is politically and culturally similar to Alberta.  BC Interior may go largely Conservative, but if you look at raw numbers, its more in line with what Tories get in rural Ontario than Alberta.

BC has a very strong environmentalist movement, never mind first jurisdiction in North America to implement a carbon tax so on fossil fuels and climate change, province quite divergent from Alberta.  In 90s, it was more over constitutional issues and feeling feds pandered too much to Quebec and ignored West so much different than today.  Today its more in Alberta due to feeling feds are hostile to energy industry.

[King of Kensington]

The combined NDP/Green vote was 37% in the last election, higher than the Tories.  The difference as Miles says is more vote-splitting among progressives.  There's a stronger "anti-establishment" left than in Ontario.  I suspect Bernie Sanders would do better in BC than in Ontario.

Vancouver Island, the west beyond the west or the "left coast", is nothing but orange and green - pretty much the opposite of Alberta/Sask.

It's ludicrous to suggest that modern-day BC is some sort of conservative province or Canadian "red state."

[Real Texan Politics]

Canadians, your new national holiday!

[Hatman 🍁]

On a totally different note:



I was looking through some Quebec election results (see 2014 above) and noticed that something puzzling.

The Chaudière-Appalaches region is one of the few parts of Quebec that the Tories do well in. I would expect that ADQ/CAQ to win it as well. However the Liberals seem to have had surprising strength here until CAQ's majority win. Anyone know why?

It might be because the Chaudiere-Appalaches region is federalist. They may have been suspicious of the CAQ, being led by a former Pequiste. Also, the Quebec Liberals are almost a right wing as the CAQ, so why bother voting for CAQ?

[Estrella]

On a totally different note:



I was looking through some Quebec election results (see 2014 above) and noticed that something puzzling.

The Chaudière-Appalaches region is one of the few parts of Quebec that the Tories do well in. I would expect that ADQ/CAQ to win it as well. However the Liberals seem to have had surprising strength here until CAQ's majority win. Anyone know why?

A map of winners is slightly misleading. As Hatman said, the region is strongly federalist and weak for the PQ, who have been basically irrelevant there since 2003. Most of those ridings were two-party races where CAQ got as much vote as in the pale blue seats they won, the Liberals just got more. In 2014, PQ's antics made everyone rally behind the PLQ and for a while it looked that CAQ might get wiped out.

As for the ADQ, before 2007 they had FPTP working against them, then immediately after their big breakthrough they spectacularly imploded and turned into a joke party. Interestingly, in the 1970s, the region was briefly a stronghold of créditistes under the wonderful madman Camil Samson ("we take good God out of schools and sex enters!"). For them, the magic of FPTP worked the other way and they won every seat on tiny shares of the vote - as low as 29% in Mégantic.

tl;dr probably just bad luck

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

On that note, what does the PLQ coalition in Quebec typically look like in federal politics? Like, who do they tend to vote for? I ask this because both the strongest LPC parts of Quebec and the strongest CPC parts voted PLQ provincially, at least before 2018

As I understand it, it's something like:
PLQ voters: Mostly Liberal but some Conservatives
CAQ voters: A mix of Liberal, Tory and BQ
PQ voters: Mostly BQ
QS voters: NDP with some BQ

Is this how it typically goes?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/green-party-brass-move-to-block-funding-for-leader-annamie-paul-s-riding-campaign-1.5506874

So the Green Party's still a dumpster fire.

[MaxQue]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/green-party-brass-move-to-block-funding-for-leader-annamie-paul-s-riding-campaign-1.5506874

So the Green Party's still a dumpster fire.

Same at Wilson-Raybault, this is what happens when you choose people for being minority women, despite being totally incompetent.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/green-party-brass-move-to-block-funding-for-leader-annamie-paul-s-riding-campaign-1.5506874

So the Green Party's still a dumpster fire.

Same at Wilson-Raybault, this is what happens when you choose people for being minority women, despite being totally incompetent.

Oh it's more than Annamie Paul being terrible (which she is), the whole Green Party needs to be burned to the ground. The higher up positions in the party seem to be occupied by political amateurs who think being "Green" makes them the guardians of the earth. It's a shame too because I quite like the Ontario Green Party and Mike Schreiner (would easily vote Green if I lived in Schreiner's riding), but the federal Greens just suck

[Estrella]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/green-party-brass-move-to-block-funding-for-leader-annamie-paul-s-riding-campaign-1.5506874

So the Green Party's still a dumpster fire.

Same at Wilson-Raybault, this is what happens when you choose people for being minority women, despite being totally incompetent.

To be fair, Paul's main opponent was a Maduro fanboy, so it was still a sensible choice. But then it's not like that makes the party not a dumpster fire.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/green-party-brass-move-to-block-funding-for-leader-annamie-paul-s-riding-campaign-1.5506874

So the Green Party's still a dumpster fire.

Same at Wilson-Raybault, this is what happens when you choose people for being minority women, despite being totally incompetent.

To be fair, Paul's main opponent was a Maduro fanboy, so it was still a sensible choice. But then it's not like that makes the party not a dumpster fire.

Honestly, I'd prefer a Lascaris-type far-left Green Party. I wouldn't vote for them, but at least they'd be filling a niche that isn't really represented in federal politics. What does Annamie Paul's Green Party even represent? Their policies and rhetoric could easily be those of the NDP or a more explicitly left-wing LPC, except more disorganized and unhinged.

[Hash]

A map of winners is slightly misleading. As Hatman said, the region is strongly federalist and weak for the PQ, who have been basically irrelevant there since 2003. Most of those ridings were two-party races where CAQ got as much vote as in the pale blue seats they won, the Liberals just got more. In 2014, PQ's antics made everyone rally behind the PLQ and for a while it looked that CAQ might get wiped out.

As for the ADQ, before 2007 they had FPTP working against them, then immediately after their big breakthrough they spectacularly imploded and turned into a joke party. Interestingly, in the 1970s, the region was briefly a stronghold of créditistes under the wonderful madman Camil Samson ("we take good God out of schools and sex enters!"). For them, the magic of FPTP worked the other way and they won every seat on tiny shares of the vote - as low as 29% in Mégantic.

tl;dr probably just bad luck

Yes, this is accurate. The Chaudière-Appalaches is a federalist-leaning region, and the Francophone vote in the region has been consistently less péquiste since the very beginning in 1970, so naturally the provincial Liberals - as the federalist party of choice - is/was quite strong in that region, although the provincial SoCreds enjoyed a flash in the pan success and the ADQ was strong in 2003 and 2007. In 2014, the CAQ - which was not expected to perform well in that election but ended up doing quite well - gained votes (and seats) from the PQ in other regions of Quebec (like the North Shore suburbs of Montreal), while losing votes (and seats) to the Liberals in regions like the Quebec City suburbs and Chaudière-Appalaches. As to specific results, we shouldn't forget the power of personal votes and strong incumbents/candidates either: for example, Robert Dutil (grandson of a politician and brother of a successful businessman), a former provincial Liberal cabinet minister under Bourassa, regained his old seat of Beauce-Sud in 2008 and held it until his retirement in 2015 (the PLQ retained it in a by-election but lost it badly in 2018).

[mileslunn]

On a side note, while at this point still gossip, there is talk Aaron Gunn will enter BC Liberal leadership.  While he has lots of followers, party is not known for right wing populism so doubt he will win leadership (I think Falcon favourite, but Ross could be a wildcard).  But if BC Liberals stupid enough to chose them (I don't think they will, unlike Tories federally at least they have a better track record of winning and seem to want to win not throw elections; only struggle now as Horgan very popular so no leader could defeat him) party would get annihiliated and like Social Credit in 1991, probably would ensure another decade of NDP government until a new centre-right party emerged.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

On a side note, while at this point still gossip, there is talk Aaron Gunn will enter BC Liberal leadership.  While he has lots of followers, party is not known for right wing populism so doubt he will win leadership (I think Falcon favourite, but Ross could be a wildcard).  But if BC Liberals stupid enough to chose them (I don't think they will, unlike Tories federally at least they have a better track record of winning and seem to want to win not throw elections; only struggle now as Horgan very popular so no leader could defeat him) party would get annihiliated and like Social Credit in 1991, probably would ensure another decade of NDP government until a new centre-right party emerged.

What do you think are the odds of the NDP replacing the "Free Entreprise Coalition" as the natural governing party of BC? Horgan seems to have drifted the BC NDP to LPC territory, forcing the BC Liberals to fish out of a smaller pond, and BC generally seems to be swiftly moving to the left.

[mileslunn]

On a side note, while at this point still gossip, there is talk Aaron Gunn will enter BC Liberal leadership.  While he has lots of followers, party is not known for right wing populism so doubt he will win leadership (I think Falcon favourite, but Ross could be a wildcard).  But if BC Liberals stupid enough to chose them (I don't think they will, unlike Tories federally at least they have a better track record of winning and seem to want to win not throw elections; only struggle now as Horgan very popular so no leader could defeat him) party would get annihiliated and like Social Credit in 1991, probably would ensure another decade of NDP government until a new centre-right party emerged.

What do you think are the odds of the NDP replacing the "Free Entreprise Coalition" as the natural governing party of BC? Horgan seems to have drifted the BC NDP to LPC territory, forcing the BC Liberals to fish out of a smaller pond, and BC generally seems to be swiftly moving to the left.

Hard to say, but I suspect NDP will win a lot more often in future.  Real question is post Horgan, do they stick with more moderate approach or is next leader more from left of party and they face some problem Labour party did in UK which had broad appeal under Tony Blair but lost as moved leftward.

BC is definitely trending leftward however and BC Liberals cannot win on the we aren't the NDP.  That being said party unlike Conservatives is much more top down which some may say is a bad thing, but generally those types try to keep fringe types like Aaron Gunn out.  I doubt BC Liberals are out for good, but I am not sure if the old pro free enterprise coalition has same viability in past.  At same time in 1991, it looked like big shift yet things returned so a lot depends on whether NDP stays where they are or swings left.

[beesley]

Would only matter in a close race, but a lot of the BC Liberals seats are smaller (e.g. the two Peace River seats) and under the new redistribution laws, those seats have their protections removed and will increase in size, while the new seats are likely to be in the Lower Mainland. 8 think North Coast is the only safe NDP seat that is undersized.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

On a side note, while at this point still gossip, there is talk Aaron Gunn will enter BC Liberal leadership.  While he has lots of followers, party is not known for right wing populism so doubt he will win leadership (I think Falcon favourite, but Ross could be a wildcard).  But if BC Liberals stupid enough to chose them (I don't think they will, unlike Tories federally at least they have a better track record of winning and seem to want to win not throw elections; only struggle now as Horgan very popular so no leader could defeat him) party would get annihiliated and like Social Credit in 1991, probably would ensure another decade of NDP government until a new centre-right party emerged.

What do you think are the odds of the NDP replacing the "Free Entreprise Coalition" as the natural governing party of BC? Horgan seems to have drifted the BC NDP to LPC territory, forcing the BC Liberals to fish out of a smaller pond, and BC generally seems to be swiftly moving to the left.

Hard to say, but I suspect NDP will win a lot more often in future.  Real question is post Horgan, do they stick with more moderate approach or is next leader more from left of party and they face some problem Labour party did in UK which had broad appeal under Tony Blair but lost as moved leftward.

BC is definitely trending leftward however and BC Liberals cannot win on the we aren't the NDP.  That being said party unlike Conservatives is much more top down which some may say is a bad thing, but generally those types try to keep fringe types like Aaron Gunn out.  I doubt BC Liberals are out for good, but I am not sure if the old pro free enterprise coalition has same viability in past.  At same time in 1991, it looked like big shift yet things returned so a lot depends on whether NDP stays where they are or swings left.

It certainly is hard to see a Liberal-Tory fusion party in today's environment. Not too long ago, the likes of Joyce Murray were members of BC's center-right party.

Of course, a huge part of it has been that John Horgan and his cabinet (at least from the outside looking in) have been extremely competent. If that's the basis of his support, then all it takes is a few scandals or a radical/incompetent successor to bring back the Liberals.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

When do I get my "Maritime Alienation" thinkpieces?

When you write them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Would only matter in a close race, but a lot of the BC Liberals seats are smaller (e.g. the two Peace River seats) and under the new redistribution laws, those seats have their protections removed and will increase in size, while the new seats are likely to be in the Lower Mainland. 8 think North Coast is the only safe NDP seat that is undersized.

I think the NDP is pushing for a more 'fair' map for the next redistribution. They should tread carefully though; there was a backlash when the NDP in Nova Scotia did that, getting rid of the Acadian and Black seats.

[mileslunn]

On a side note, while at this point still gossip, there is talk Aaron Gunn will enter BC Liberal leadership.  While he has lots of followers, party is not known for right wing populism so doubt he will win leadership (I think Falcon favourite, but Ross could be a wildcard).  But if BC Liberals stupid enough to chose them (I don't think they will, unlike Tories federally at least they have a better track record of winning and seem to want to win not throw elections; only struggle now as Horgan very popular so no leader could defeat him) party would get annihiliated and like Social Credit in 1991, probably would ensure another decade of NDP government until a new centre-right party emerged.

What do you think are the odds of the NDP replacing the "Free Entreprise Coalition" as the natural governing party of BC? Horgan seems to have drifted the BC NDP to LPC territory, forcing the BC Liberals to fish out of a smaller pond, and BC generally seems to be swiftly moving to the left.

Hard to say, but I suspect NDP will win a lot more often in future.  Real question is post Horgan, do they stick with more moderate approach or is next leader more from left of party and they face some problem Labour party did in UK which had broad appeal under Tony Blair but lost as moved leftward.

BC is definitely trending leftward however and BC Liberals cannot win on the we aren't the NDP.  That being said party unlike Conservatives is much more top down which some may say is a bad thing, but generally those types try to keep fringe types like Aaron Gunn out.  I doubt BC Liberals are out for good, but I am not sure if the old pro free enterprise coalition has same viability in past.  At same time in 1991, it looked like big shift yet things returned so a lot depends on whether NDP stays where they are or swings left.

It certainly is hard to see a Liberal-Tory fusion party in today's environment. Not too long ago, the likes of Joyce Murray were members of BC's center-right party.

Of course, a huge part of it has been that John Horgan and his cabinet (at least from the outside looking in) have been extremely competent. If that's the basis of his support, then all it takes is a few scandals or a radical/incompetent successor to bring back the Liberals.

BC Liberals were really only a true merger of two in 2001.  In 2005, 2009, 2013, and 2017 they were more like Tories in 2011 federally or Ontario PCs now.  United all the Conservatives and appealed to Blue Liberals who didn't want NDP.  Since Horgan has been moderate and competent, NDP has more or less united Liberal and NDP voters federally.  But as Ontario showed in 2018 that can easily change if things go bad.  After all in 2008 and 2011, Harper got almost same share of the popular vote as BC Liberals in 2009 and 2013 and both cases had very weak federal Liberals.

That being said, it seems a lot of the Liberals who vote Liberal in Liberal-Tory race but Tory in NDP-Tory race skew heavily over 50 so could be a longer term problem for party.  Now if party stupid enough to choose Aaron Gunn (and I don't think they will), then they may never form government again.  Outside a few interior ridings, I don't think right wing populism or northern style Trumpism really sells well in BC.  Yes he has large internet following, but he is toxic to vast majority.

As for caucus, so far seem moderate, but I've heard from others they do have some radicals but Horgan much like Harper federally is good at controlling them.  So Horgan will be tough to beat, but can his successor have same discipline is question.  Scheer no more right wing than Harper and O'Toole yes, but both getting hurt badly on their inability to control more crazy elements which Harper kept under wraps so that will be NDP's challenge post Horgan.  But as long as he is leader I think BC Liberals face an uphill battle beating him.  But choose any of the current candidates, can probably improve slightly over 2020 but still fall short, while chose Aaron Gunn risk split and possible irrelevance.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-more-than-leadership-or-policy-its-the-conservative-temperament-thats/

Coyne for the Globe.

I don't want to fully break the paywall, but this blurb resonated particularly well with me:

"If the besetting sin of Liberals is smarmy sanctimoniousness, the Conservative equivalent is a chippy defensiveness, an adolescent petulance, a conviction that the cards are perpetually stacked against them."

This is basically what I mean by the "Conservative image problem". It's not necessarily their policies (it's a part of it, but I don't think Canada is an inherently left-wing country where conservative politics can never win - people who criticize CPC policy for being too conservative are, for the most part, people who wouldn't vote for them anyway), the problem is their delivery. The CPC's culture, especially under O'Toole, manifests itself as angry and pessimistic - unlike the somewhat ideologically comparable Boris Johnson or Francois Legault who project more confidence and vision. Underneath that image I think is a defeatist mentality, a constant problem for generations of Canadian Conservatives.