Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Benjamin Frank]

Notley bleeds orange. No way she runs as a Liberal.

Nowhere mentioned in the article is if she speaks French though.

Anyway, she probably would do very well in a general election, though one wonders if the NDP would actually pick her. She may be too right wing for the base. FTR though, I would support her in a heartbeat despite me being quite a bit to her left.

I can't imagine Notley winning the federal NDP leadership given her support for the fossil fuel sector (even if it isn't supportive enough for enough people in Alberta.)

Don't forget though of former NDP Premiers who later ran Federally, it's two to zero for the Federal Liberal Party (Ujjal Dosanjh and Bob Rae.)

Why just include those who ran for the Liberals?

The list also includes Tommy Douglas and Dave Barrett, so it's 1/4.

I still don't see Notley running as a Liberal. Remember, she was elected leader when the NDP was not the major non-Conservative party in the province. If she were an opportunist type, she would've joined the Alberta Liberals a long time ago.

My mistake, sorry. I thought I had written and meant to write "former more recent NDP premiers who later ran federally."  I'm obviously familiar with both Tommy Douglas and Dave Barrett.

In regards to Rachel Notley, I think it's generallly acknowledged that though Notley fought any attempt for the Alberta NDP to rebrand (which would cause its own problems of having the Alberta NDP no longer officially associated with the Federal NDP) that the Alberta NDP did not have close relations with the Federal NDP and Jagmeet Singh.


Earlier this month, Notley said she last spoke with Singh six to 12 months ago — a long time to go without talking to one's supposed boss — and cannot remember what they spoke about. "Whether I am talking to the leader of the federal NDP, whether I am advocating in Ottawa, whether I am talking to New Democrats in B.C., Albertans know that I have always been quite ready to do whatever is necessary to stand up for the best interests of Albertans," she told reporters.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ndp-rachel-notley-alberta-jagmeet-singh-union-party-ties-1.6842364

[Хahar 🤔]

Notley did associate herself more with the federal NDP campaign in 2021 than she did in previous elections, but everyone knows that she's generally kept her distance and it's not hard to see why: there's clearly a fundamental philosophical difference between her and the federal NDP. If she were to become leader of the federal party, that would mean turning away from the current NDP policy of effectively unconditional support for the Liberal Party. My sense is that NDP members are generally pleased with this policy and with Jagmeet Singh, the symbol of the policy. If Rachel Notley really were to attempt to take the party leadership, it would be very easy for NDP members to rationalize it away as her being too right-wing for them, when in reality they would be frightened by the idea of actually trying to win elections instead of just fielding no-hope candidates to show how great democracy is.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Notley did associate herself more with the federal NDP campaign in 2021 than she did in previous elections, but everyone knows that she's generally kept her distance and it's not hard to see why: there's clearly a fundamental philosophical difference between her and the federal NDP. If she were to become leader of the federal party, that would mean turning away from the current NDP policy of effectively unconditional support for the Liberal Party. My sense is that NDP members are generally pleased with this policy and with Jagmeet Singh, the symbol of the policy. If Rachel Notley really were to attempt to take the party leadership, it would be very easy for NDP members to rationalize it away as her being too right-wing for them, when in reality they would be frightened by the idea of actually trying to win elections instead of just fielding no-hope candidates to show how great democracy is.

Yeah I think what's helping keep Singh around is that the true believers know he's one of them (or at least, as close to a "true believer" as you can be without nuking the NDP's electoral chances). I do think Notley would be better positioned for the current political climate. Tempered Liberal support should usually be good news for the NDP, but both Liberals AND the NDP are losing support, almost entirely to the CPC's benefit. I think someone like Notley would play better with dissatisfied Liberals than Singh does. But Notley would be a liability to the true believers, kinda like Mulcair was. I think her generally moderate politics could be forgiven as a matter of practicality - Alberta is significantly more right-wing than Canada as a whole, so it would follow that Alberta's left is more moderate. Plus Notley still hits on some of the main left-wing hot-buttons like social programs and LGBT issues. But her support of the oil industry could be a serious liability to a party base that prides itself on being much more adamantly anti-O&G, compared to the Liberals who often waffle on this issue. Notley is more pro-oil than Trudeau, and whether or not we grant that this is a mere practicality of running in Alberta, it's still not going to play well. Trying to walk back her previous stances (like the time she threatened to end the carbon tax if TMX wasn't approved) would play even worse.

But honestly, has Singh's "youthful urban Canada" approach done anything for the NDP? They still have nothing in Toronto, one seat in Montreal which is more because of Boulerice than Singh, and 5 seats in the lower mainland is nothing to write home about. You could imagine the NDP turfing Dzerowicz and Virani in Toronto due to depressed Liberal support, while also losing Angus and Hughes up north due to increased Tory support.

[Хahar 🤔]

But honestly, has Singh's "youthful urban Canada" approach done anything for the NDP?

The answer, of course, is no. One would think that, at very least, having a Punjabi leader would help in that so many Canadians are Punjabi and they tend to be very concentrated, but in fact in 2021 the NDP did not even come close to winning any seats in Surrey or Brampton. At the provincial level, the BCNDP won a sweeping victory in Surrey in 2020, while the ONDP won most of the Brampton seats in 2018 before losing them all in 2022. It is not that these voters are totally unwilling to vote NDP; it is just that they have no interest in this NDP, which is a party for the already converted.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

But honestly, has Singh's "youthful urban Canada" approach done anything for the NDP?

The answer, of course, is no. One would think that, at very least, having a Punjabi leader would help in that so many Canadians are Punjabi and they tend to be very concentrated, but in fact in 2021 the NDP did not even come close to winning any seats in Surrey or Brampton. At the provincial level, the BCNDP won a sweeping victory in Surrey in 2020, while the ONDP won most of the Brampton seats in 2018 before losing them all in 2022. It is not that these voters are totally unwilling to vote NDP; it is just that they have no interest in this NDP, which is a party for the already converted.

The conventional wisdom about the "ethnic vote" seems to be that simple surface-level appeal isn't enough anymore. Large minority groups like the Sikh have been pandered to by parties of every stripe for decades. Having a practicing Sikh as a party leader may be huge, but not when it's taken for granted that he won't be Prime Minister, and it is taken for granted that no matter the stripe of the government, there will be at least one, probably more practicing Sikhs in cabinet. This is even true at the provincial level in Ontario and BC, where Singh's unique appeal should be highest.

This is not even getting into the intra-group divisions in the broader South Asian community. His association with the Khalistani separatist movement, for example is likely a major turnoff to many first-generation Hindu immigrants, even if that issue may not even register for the average Canadian.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

But regardless of how much of an impact Singh's unique background might have - positively in GTA and the Lower Mainland, negatively in rural Canada and Quebec, and there's far more evidence of the latter than the former - there's just not much more to him as a leader. He can tout things like dental care, and fair enough, they've used their influence to do something, more than you can say for the NDP under most leaders. But that was more a matter of circumstance than leadership, and the circumstances that led to the NDP's influence (Liberal minority) is better credited to the Bloc than the NDP, who after all have lost seats under Singh.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Recent Polling:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1695511432530698737

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1695160090490282039

[Benjamin Frank]

Recent Polling:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1695511432530698737
https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1695160090490282039

Those are the projected seat totals, these are the numbers.

Mainstreet:
Con: 41
Lib: 28
NDP: 15
B.Q: 7
Green: 4
PPC: 3

Abacus
Con: 38
Lib: 26
NDP: 19
B.Q: 7
Green: 4
PPC: 4

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1691497118064582665?t=nhq9r4SX7DdOnUi...

Note that in relation to the Singh discussion, the Abacus poll's numbers or even this more hyper-urban Nanos NDP sample from last week, are how Singh survives a Conservative wave despite another disappointing performance. Cause the people he aligns with will absolutely take a handful of net gains and a much more urban NDP even though by any historical comparison it will be another under-performance.  

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12449007/Canadian-lawmaker-game-plan-DICTATORSHIP-election.html

The Canadian Foreign Minister seems to think the US is an unreliable ally. Which, to be fair, we are; we started a trade war with them for no reason under Trump. But it's yet another sobering reminder, as if it were needed, that Canada sees us as a threat. Makes me feel pretty ashamed of my nationality, per usual.

[MaxQue]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12449007/Canadian-lawmaker-game-plan-DICTATORSHIP-election.html

The Canadian Foreign Minister seems to think the US is an unreliable ally. Which, to be fair, we are; we started a trade war with them for no reason under Trump. But it's yet another sobering reminder, as if it were needed, that Canada sees us as a threat. Makes me feel pretty ashamed of my nationality, per usual.

Trump? We're in a trade war about lumber since Reagan.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1691497118064582665?t=nhq9r4SX7DdOnUi...
Note that in relation to the Singh discussion, the Abacus poll's numbers or even this more hyper-urban Nanos NDP sample from last week, are how Singh survives a Conservative wave despite another disappointing performance. Cause the people he aligns with will absolutely take a handful of net gains and a much more urban NDP even though by any historical comparison it will be another under-performance.  

Yes, that part is interesting. Do you think it's Singh's fault that the NDP underperformed with seats relative to the popular vote?

In the 2021 election, the NDP received 17.8% of the vote. In the past when they've gotten around that share of the vote, they'd normally get around 10% of the seats for roughly 35, but they only won 25 seats.

Jagmeet Singh distanced himself by claiming that the NDP came close in a lot of ridings, which by any objective measure is actually not true.

I don't know that I agree that NDP support is strictly 'urban.' The NDP still handily wins a fair number of more rural ridings in the British Columbia Interior and Northern Vancouver Island, in Northern Manitoba and in Northern Ontario. The ridings in those areas are 7 or 8 of the 25 ridings they hold (depending on whether one counts Nanimo as rural or small city.)

The NDP has also done surprisingly relatively well in rural places in Eastern and Midwestern Ontario recently (relatively to their rural support in the Prairies) but I agree that support seems to be declining.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12449007/Canadian-lawmaker-game-plan-DICTATORSHIP-election.html

The Canadian Foreign Minister seems to think the US is an unreliable ally. Which, to be fair, we are; we started a trade war with them for no reason under Trump. But it's yet another sobering reminder, as if it were needed, that Canada sees us as a threat. Makes me feel pretty ashamed of my nationality, per usual.

Saying Canadians (or Canada) sees the U.S as a threat is over sensationalistic. Canada sees the U.S as a possibly somewhat untrustry ally (as the U.S also sees Canada!) and as a potential threat.

Despite what politicians say, nations don't have friends, they have relations that are often uneasy.  Certainly Trump is a relatively new phenomena and is an increase in threat level over George W Bush who was an increase in threat levels before that, but specifically Canada dealing with American trade disputes and protectionist threats are nothing new.

The reason Canada got into trade talks with the United States in the first place back in the mid 1980s was Canadian concern over increasing American protectionism.

That itself dates back to a 'white paper' from a commission headed by former Trudeau minister of finance Donald MacDonald (for which he received nearly $1,000 a day) appointed by Pierre Trudeau in 1982.

https://www.cbc.ca/archives/from-1985-should-canada-seek-free-trade-with-the-u-s-1.4811091

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Ugh. Singh needs to go. He inspires no confidence outside hardcore Dippers and no one believes he could ever be a prime minister.

It’s a huge shame, because the combination of voter fatigue and the affordability crisis has made it so that the Liberals just aren’t going to win next time. With a different NDP leader, we could have been looking at a CPC–NDP race, kind of like what we saw during Doug Ford’s first provincial election. Instead, we’re almost certainly going to have a proto-fascist demagogue as the leader of our country, and there isn’t anything we can do.

The NDP has a responsibility to put forward a potential Prime Minister. I hate the game they are playing instead.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why have the polls got noticeably worse for the Liberals just recently?

[OriAr]

Why have the polls got noticeably worse for the Liberals just recently?

"Housing is not a Federal responsibility" - Justin Trudeau, July 2023, in the middle of the biggest housing crisis in Canada since WW2.
Not hard to see how things got out of control here, and despite what people might say, PP has been screaming about inflation and affordability for years now so he has credibility here.

[Oryxslayer]

Why have the polls got noticeably worse for the Liberals just recently?

"Housing is not a Federal responsibility" - Justin Trudeau, July 2023, in the middle of the biggest housing crisis in Canada since WW2.
Not hard to see how things got out of control here, and despite what people might say, PP has been screaming about inflation and affordability for years now so he has credibility here.

When it comes to "small-government" style conservative policy - cutting red tape, deregulation, streamlining -  the one arena you'll find it readily desired among <45 is in the realm of housing. To his credit, PP is saying not just Tory talking points, but also the type of stuff than would make a urban 'working-families' style US YIMBY proud. Canada will always have the issue of everyone wanting to be in or around 4 cities, ensuring demand will always notably outpace supply, but come on, you guys can do better than this:

[Mike88]

Why did housing become so expensive in Canada? Low construction that led to a supply and demand crisis? Low rents for long periods of time that devalued properties and when they started to increase, it created a "boom" in prices that made it impossible for families to buy houses? Still scars from the 2008 crisis? Or all of the above?

[Aurelius2]

Why have the polls got noticeably worse for the Liberals just recently?

"Housing is not a Federal responsibility" - Justin Trudeau, July 2023, in the middle of the biggest housing crisis in Canada since WW2.
Not hard to see how things got out of control here, and despite what people might say, PP has been screaming about inflation and affordability for years now so he has credibility here.

When it comes to "small-government" style conservative policy - cutting red tape, deregulation, streamlining -  the one arena you'll find it readily desired among <45 is in the realm of housing. To his credit, PP is saying not just Tory talking points, but also the type of stuff than would make a urban 'working-families' style US YIMBY proud. Canada will always have the issue of everyone wanting to be in or around 4 cities, ensuring demand will always notably outpace supply, but come on, you guys can do better than this:

I don't see why this should be taken for granted. They could very easily take measures to nudge business development and expansion (which housing will follow) into second-tier cities like Victoria, Hamilton, London, etc. And take measures to encourage those cities to build more housing - the crisis in Toronto and Vancouver has reached such absurd proportions that I doubt it'll be hard to get people to settle in those places. Red Deer is an obvious city to try to scale-up bigly due to its location halfway between Edmonton and Calgary. Kingston has a major university and is the main city servicing quite a large region, yet it is surprisingly small and could easily be boosted up quite a bit. Many such cases. Yes, simple realities of climate will always keep the majority of the population in the warmest parts of the country, but those areas are still huge and there are plenty of opportunities to upsize second-tier and third-tier cities to take the pressure off the biggest 4-6 cities.

Canada and Australia are the only two countries in the world with this particular pattern of urban clustering, AFAIK. There's no reason to assume it can't be worked against.

[Aurelius2]

Canadian polls have been so static since the last election that I'm surprised the housing comment alone would have moved the polls that much. I'll defer to our Canadian posters on that but is there anything else that would have contributed to the big shift recently?

[Aurelius2]

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-concerned-about-integrity-student-immigration-system-minister-2023-08-27/

Even the government's immigration minister is concerned now, because the country is set to bring in 900,000 international students in the coming year - the highest number in history and 3x what it was a decade ago. With housing costs already at record highs, what could go wrong?

I'm also reading that 3/4 of these students are going to diploma mills, not actual schools. IDK if this is true but I've known about the diploma mill problem for awhile.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Canadian polls have been so static since the last election that I'm surprised the housing comment alone would have moved the polls that much. I'll defer to our Canadian posters on that but is there anything else that would have contributed to the big shift recently?

Poillievre took off his glasses, also.

Moving on from your question, I have to say that I agree with whoever said small-c conservative principles are acceptable to young people only around housing. The Liberals have lost all credibility, but they honestly could have lifted Poillievre's plans verbatim and supplemented them with their own progressive initiatives without receiving much flack. Best of both worlds.

It's like the deficit. If politicians really were serious about it, the solution is obviously to raise taxes and cut spending. But nobody ever seriously proposes both. Now, I'm not convinced that the deficit is a big deal, but you get what I'm saying about throwing the kitchen sink at a problem.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Canadian polls have been so static since the last election that I'm surprised the housing comment alone would have moved the polls that much. I'll defer to our Canadian posters on that but is there anything else that would have contributed to the big shift recently?

I also think that recent history shows, that Canadians start to get fed up of governments around this time too

- Tories were bounced after 9 years in power and I believe had been polling badly from 1991 onwards

- Liberals were bounced after a little more than 12 years from power but had their backlash happen a little later thanks to the Reform/PC divide for the vast majority of this period

- Tories were bounced after nearly 10 years in power and you could see that by year 8 , Harper was doing pretty badly in the polls

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ugh. Singh needs to go. He inspires no confidence outside hardcore Dippers and no one believes he could ever be a prime minister.

It’s a huge shame, because the combination of voter fatigue and the affordability crisis has made it so that the Liberals just aren’t going to win next time. With a different NDP leader, we could have been looking at a CPC–NDP race, kind of like what we saw during Doug Ford’s first provincial election. Instead, we’re almost certainly going to have a proto-fascist demagogue as the leader of our country, and there isn’t anything we can do.

The NDP has a responsibility to put forward a potential Prime Minister. I hate the game they are playing instead.

Singh should have been removed from Leadership after the 2019 election and I have no idea why he was not.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/international-student-cap-immigration-system-integrity-1.6948733

mmigration Minister Marc Miller says the concern around the skyrocketing number of international students entering Canada is not just about housing, but Canadians' confidence in the "integrity" of the immigration system itself.

Canada is on track to welcome around 900,000 international students this year, Miller said in an interview that aired Saturday on CBC's The House. That's more than at any point in Canada's history and roughly triple the number of students who entered the country a decade ago.

This is insane