Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[CascadianIndy]

New polls from Angus Reid and Mainstreet Research, both of which show the mythical poll tightening.
https://angusreid.org/federal-leaders-ability-favourability/

AR:

LPC: 33%
CPC: 30%
NDP: 21%
BQ: 7%
GPC: 4%
PPC: 3%

Mainstreet:

LPC: 34%
CPC: 32%
NDP: 16%
GPC: 5%
BQ: 5%



Personally, I expect the results of the election to be around the numbers in the AR poll.

[MaxQue]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

With these polls and with the possible resurgence of Covid, I wonder if there is now a real possibility that there won't be an early fall election.  Who knows, the Liberals may even govern up to the fixed election date.

Jody Wilson Raybould would get her M.P pension and the Liberals would actually have to work on reconciliation.  What a wonderful world that would be.

Oh yeah, and maybe Carolyn Bennett and Harjit Sajjan would be fired from the cabinet.

You've got things confused. People shouldn't get pension merely for having overinflated egos and no skills.

She qualifies for a pension as an M.P if she serves for 6 or more years. I believe that she is not eligible to receive this pension for several more years though until she is 55.

I know that, my comment was about that being a "wonderful" thing.
Through, the age is now 65, as she did not reach 6 years before January 1st, 2016.

[Benjamin Frank]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

With these polls and with the possible resurgence of Covid, I wonder if there is now a real possibility that there won't be an early fall election.  Who knows, the Liberals may even govern up to the fixed election date.

Jody Wilson Raybould would get her M.P pension and the Liberals would actually have to work on reconciliation.  What a wonderful world that would be.

Oh yeah, and maybe Carolyn Bennett and Harjit Sajjan would be fired from the cabinet.

You've got things confused. People shouldn't get pension merely for having overinflated egos and no skills.

She qualifies for a pension as an M.P if she serves for 6 or more years. I believe that she is not eligible to receive this pension for several more years though until she is 55.

I know that, my comment was about that being a "wonderful" thing.
Through, the age is now 65, as she did not reach 6 years before January 1st, 2016.

I did not know that, so, you have even less to worry about.

When I wrote 'what a wonderful world that would be' I was being facetious more than anything by referencing the wonderful Same Cooke song. Can't pass up a chance to post a Sam Cooke song.

[CumbrianLefty]

New polls from Angus Reid and Mainstreet Research, both of which show the mythical poll tightening.
https://angusreid.org/federal-leaders-ability-favourability/

AR:

LPC: 33%
CPC: 30%
NDP: 21%
BQ: 7%
GPC: 4%
PPC: 3%

Mainstreet:

LPC: 34%
CPC: 32%
NDP: 16%
GPC: 5%
BQ: 5%



Personally, I expect the results of the election to be around the numbers in the AR poll.

On that sort of polling, there might not even be an election just yet?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

New polls from Angus Reid and Mainstreet Research, both of which show the mythical poll tightening.
https://angusreid.org/federal-leaders-ability-favourability/

AR:

LPC: 33%
CPC: 30%
NDP: 21%
BQ: 7%
GPC: 4%
PPC: 3%

Mainstreet:

LPC: 34%
CPC: 32%
NDP: 16%
GPC: 5%
BQ: 5%



Personally, I expect the results of the election to be around the numbers in the AR poll.

On that sort of polling, there might not even be an election just yet?

NDP numbers are probably inflated in the polls though, which results in Liberal support being underestimated. I say this because it happens almost every election. There's a phenomenon of left-leaning Canadians who hate the big two parties and swear that they will vote NDP...until it's voting day and they vote Liberal.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

O'Toole says he would let provinces decide how to fund and provide abortion services.

Can't blame him, ceding further ground on abortion would really damage his already vulnerable numbers with the CPC base. But good lord, Trudeau has good political instincts. Picking an abortion fight with Higgs may hurt the LPC in rural NB, but on the national level, few things galvanize the Liberal base more than the idea that the Conservatives would go after the right to choose. It also hurts the CPC in the 905 if abortion is an election issue, because they're seen as the pro-life party.

[Estrella]

Looks like the Catholic Church has learned their lesson and - haha, who am I kidding.

Winnipeg archdiocese apologizes after priest accuses residential school survivors of lying

“Lie that they were abused sexually and, oop, another $50,000. It’s kind of hard if you are poor not to lie.” [...] Forest also said the media is evil and run by Freemasons.

Millions meant for residential school survivors spent on Catholic Church lawyers, administration: documents

$2.3 million was spent on administration costs. $2.7 million was paid to lawyers for legal work and unapproved "representation" unrelated to the compensation agreement. None of the other churches involved in the landmark Indian Residential Schools Settlement Agreement of 2005 — Anglican, United and Presbyterian — engaged in any of these practices. They all paid the full amounts agreed to years ago without incident.

Catholic Church dedicated nearly $300M for buildings since promising residential school survivors $25M in 2005

Catholic officials said in 2015 they could only fundraise a total of $3.9 million for residential school survivors, but efforts for Catholic cathedrals and other buildings across Canada reached nearly $300 million since November 2005, according to data gathered by CBC News. These include a $128-million renovation of St. Michael's Cathedral Basilica in Toronto. The 2016 gala opening — complete with a brass band — was held one year after Canadian church groups went to court to say there was no more fundraising money for survivors.

[King of Kensington]

As expected, the NDP nominated Alejandra Bravo, Director of Leadership and Training at the Broadbent Institute, as their candidate for Davenport.  She ran three times for city council in the northern part of the riding and came close.  Just about the lowest hanging fruit for the NDP of any riding in the country. 

[Estrella]

I made a thing.

[cp]

That's terrific! I love how it sort of helps factor out the magnitude of loss/victory. 2011 and 1958 look a lot less like outliers or dramatic shifts, as it's clear the pattern of Liberal seats remained pretty much unchanged from before and after. 1984, on the other hand, really *was* a big shift, with the era of Liberal domination in Québec transitioning to the era of Liberal domination in Ontario.

Great work

[King of Kensington]

Yikes

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/08/01/erin-otoole-approaches-an-election-with-a-party-so-fractured-that-some-conservatives-want-him-to-lose.html

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/08/01/be-ready-for-aug-8-some-senior-liberals-expect-to-kick-off-federal-election-campaign-in-a-week/309691

[Estrella]

Go west, Tommy's ruling there
Go west, where we Dippers care
Go west, where our party grew
Go west, this is what we're gonna do

[King of Kensington]

A majority of the NDP caucus is again from the West, but BC dominates and Saskatchewan is shut out.  Oddly looks like 1962.

[CascadianIndy]

New Leger poll is out! Despite the healthy 7-point lead on the surface, the crosstabs are a little weird with the Tories apparently only 5 points behind the Liberals in Ontario? Regardless, here's the topline:

LPC 36
CPC 29
NDP 20
BQC 7
GPC 4
PPC 3

Jamming those numbers into 338canada's federal simulator gets you a Lib majority of 8, while it's even closer with TCTC showing the Liberals barely making it at 175/338.

Link to the full results are here if anybody would like to peruse them!

https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Legers-North-American-Tracker-August-2nd-2021_v2.pdf

[StateBoiler]

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-biden-trudeau-talk-build-back-whatever/

U.S. and Canadian relations continue to struggle post-Trump.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1422342851518685185?s=19

Given that the mayoral race is straight FPTP I'd imagine Sohi is a clear frontrunner based on this poll, as expected. I'd guess on these figures he gets around 45%, which would be the lowest since Stephen Mandel's first victory.

[If my soul was made of stone]

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-biden-trudeau-talk-build-back-whatever/

U.S. and Canadian relations continue to struggle post-Trump.

Most of Biden's foreign policy has been pretty loathsome in my estimation, but his willingness to stand up to Trudeau's oil worship, even if it turns out to be disingenuous kayfabe, is a rare bright spot in the post-neocon morass.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

New Leger poll is out! Despite the healthy 7-point lead on the surface, the crosstabs are a little weird with the Tories apparently only 5 points behind the Liberals in Ontario? Regardless, here's the topline:

LPC 36
CPC 29
NDP 20
BQC 7
GPC 4
PPC 3

Jamming those numbers into 338canada's federal simulator gets you a Lib majority of 8, while it's even closer with TCTC showing the Liberals barely making it at 175/338.

Link to the full results are here if anybody would like to peruse them!

https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Legers-North-American-Tracker-August-2nd-2021_v2.pdf

I was thinking the same thing re: Ontario, a 5pt LPC-CPC gap is plausible, but unlikely when the national gap is 7. In general, Ontario swings the same way as the nation. Even in 2019 when the Tories underperformed in ontario and actually lost vote share, the LPC-CPC swing was still in their favour.

This poll is suggesting that Ontario swings 2pts from the LPC to CPC, but BC has a CPC-LPC swing of 11pts. Even by Canada's wild and regionalized swings, this is pretty hard to believe.

I think with those toplines, Ontario would be a bit better for the Liberals, and BC a bit worse. I'd also expect the CPC to be a bit higher than 37% in MB/SK. Atlantic Canada looks about right, as does Quebec although the latter can be unpredictable. I have no take on Alberta, the most historically predictable province has suddenly become unpredictable with Kenney's unpopularitym the collapse of oil, and the rise of the nutty right. A 17 point CPC-LPC swing is huge, but not impossible given the uniquely bad circumstances for the Tories.

[StateBoiler]

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-biden-trudeau-talk-build-back-whatever/

U.S. and Canadian relations continue to struggle post-Trump.

Most of Biden's foreign policy has been pretty loathsome in my estimation, but his willingness to stand up to Trudeau's oil worship, even if it turns out to be disingenuous kayfabe, is a rare bright spot in the post-neocon morass.

Your post tells me you did not read the article.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrjcZS1OCWM

Parodying a truck ad is possibly the most creative attack ad I've seen, I gotta hand it to Unifor

[beesley]

Maxime Bernier won't get a vaccine apparently. Will that help him? Not enough to win any seat other than perhaps his own I would've thought.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Maxime Bernier won't get a vaccine apparently. Will that help him? Not enough to win any seat other than perhaps his own I would've thought.

I mean, did anyone expect him to get vaccinated? This isn't surprising at all and I doubt it will move any significant number of votes, in Beauce or elsewhere.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

New Angus Reid and Abacus are out, Liberal lead ranging from 5 to 12 respectively. Excellent regionals for Liberals in both, with both giving the Liberals a healthy lead in Ontario, and a lead in both BC and QC to varying degrees.

[beesley]

Maxime Bernier won't get a vaccine apparently. Will that help him? Not enough to win any seat other than perhaps his own I would've thought.

I mean, did anyone expect him to get vaccinated? This isn't surprising at all and I doubt it will move any significant number of votes, in Beauce or elsewhere.

I meant that it wouldn't broaden any appeal beyond his own seat, not that it would make a difference in Beauce, apologies, I wasn't clear.