Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Also more recently you have your affluent educated ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton, and two North Shore in BC which used to be reliably conservative, but now seem like safe Liberal, although I do think Tories if they ditched the cultural and social conservatism might still have a chance in those, but may not (hard to know for sure).  Could a Michael Chong or Peter MacKay led Tory party win those or are they gone?

I can't speak for the north shore ridings in BC (other than to say that West Van-Sea to Sky has a really weird distribution), but the Ontario ones have changed a lot. Kanata is something of an economic hub in its own right with the huge tech industry there, going from Ottawa proper to Kanata feels almost like driving out of the city. Burlington also has a similar vibe these days. Generally, as metropolitan areas grow, once-suburban areas turn into mini-urban cores in their own right and this changes the political complexion, namely adding an NDP element and generally weakening the Tories. FWIW both Burlington and Kanata are PC-held provincially, but with all things being equal (which they most certainly were not in Onpoli 2018), they're still competitive ridings - whereas in the past, Burlington and Kanata would have been lean Tory.

Not that long ago, going to Kanata was driving out of the city of Ottawa.

It still somewhat feels like that, even though Kanata is fully within Ottawa now. Then again the only part of Ottawa I've lived in is Centretown (and Sandy Hill during my student days), so what do I know, I'm just a city slicker.

You can't tell me Greely or Carp are part of Ottawa though, I refuse to believe that, city limits be damned. Even Barrhaven is pushing it.

[mileslunn]

Prince George and Kamloops maybe urban but small cities, sort of akin to Barrie and Brantford which still vote Tory although could lose both, but tend to perform better than they do overall and only lose in these cities if they have a really bad election.  In Canada, about half the country live in metro areas over 500,000 so even if Tories or parties on right elsewhere just dominate all those under 100,000, not nearly enough to win.

For Burlington and Kanata-Carleton, relative to province as a whole they were a decade clearly to right of it while now more or less in line thus go whichever way Ontario goes whereas a decade ago generally voted to right of province.

[King of Kensington]

Northeast BC is rather Northern Alberta-like, and Prince George is rather isolated so will be slow to flip I think. 

[mileslunn]

Northeast BC is rather Northern Alberta-like, and Prince George is rather isolated so will be slow to flip I think. 

Also depends on where dividing line falls.  Its small enough it could fall on the right side not left side.  In both US and UK, generally cities its size have been trending rightward.  Its more larger ones trending leftward which off course is where majority live and most of the growth.

[Benjamin Frank]

Northeast BC is rather Northern Alberta-like, and Prince George is rather isolated so will be slow to flip I think. 

I'm not sure why the Peace River area is in British Columbia and not in Alberta. There are similar areas in the East Kootenays that are east of the Rocky Mountains.  I believe the dividing line between the two provinces was made before anybody mapped the area.

Of course, with oil in the North and mining in the South, British Columbia isn't going to just give those places to Alberta, even though there are sometimes petitions from those areas to join Alberta.  Logically, they should be part of Aliberta.

[Benjamin Frank]

Northeast BC is rather Northern Alberta-like, and Prince George is rather isolated so will be slow to flip I think. 

The Liberals came quite close in Cariboo-Prince George in 2015.  They had a very strong candidate though.

[WindowPhil]

Do you think Anglo-Canada should change its alcohol sale system?

The United States only has private liquor stores, while Quebec (and I'm sure much of the rest of the world) goes farther and allows it to be sold in Grocery Stores and at Gas Stations.

Would you support doing the America approach of privatizing liquor stores, or the Quebec approach of allowing it to be sold in any store?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Prince George and Kamloops maybe urban but small cities, sort of akin to Barrie and Brantford which still vote Tory although could lose both, but tend to perform better than they do overall and only lose in these cities if they have a really bad election.  In Canada, about half the country live in metro areas over 500,000 so even if Tories or parties on right elsewhere just dominate all those under 100,000, not nearly enough to win.

For Burlington and Kanata-Carleton, relative to province as a whole they were a decade clearly to right of it while now more or less in line thus go whichever way Ontario goes whereas a decade ago generally voted to right of province.

Barrie and Brantford aren't as big-C Conservative as PG though (Kamloops may be comparable). Brantford's Liberal/NDP strength gets drowned out by the conservative Brant County surrounding it, and Barrie is split awkwardly between two rural areas. On its own, both cities would be swing LPC-CPC ridings, while Prince George on its own would still vote Conservative

Might be worth adding that Brantford voted NDP in the 2018 ontario election, but the surrounding Brant County voted Conservative enough to give the riding to the PCs. Barrie though seems to have voted PC that year, because it's slightly more conservative and the left was split three way there, whereas in Brantford it rallied around the NDP.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Do you think Anglo-Canada should change its alcohol sale system?

The United States only has private liquor stores, while Quebec (and I'm sure much of the rest of the world) goes farther and allows it to be sold in Grocery Stores and at Gas Stations.

Would you support doing the America approach of privatizing liquor stores, or the Quebec approach of allowing it to be sold in any store?

English Canada is way too puritanical about alcohol law (except alberta, they have private liquor stores and I think gas station beers there - I was too young to drink when I lived in alberta, but I remember there was a variety of liquor stores there, no LCBO-type monopoly or anything). Here in Ontario it's a bit nuts, the Wynne government brought in the awful "Beer Store" monopoly, although they did liberalize beer and wine sales by allowing it at select grocery stores like loblaws. Still, Ontario's alcohol laws punish small craft brewers and limiting beer/wine sales to a small handful of stores makes no sense. Quebec sells beer at corner stores and the sky hasn't fallen over Quebec just yet.

I actually like the Ford government's moves on alcohol liberalization (on Marijuana though, holy hell did they mess that up). It makes sense to keep hard liquor limited to the LCBO, corner and grocery stores are probably not well equipped to store and manage hard liquor. For beer and wine though it's high time we implement a Quebec-like system.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/07/05/they-havent-got-a-competitor-whos-even-remotely-close-liberals-on-track-to-win-majority-in-expected-september-election-but-still-a-few-wild-cards/304638

Unbeatable electoral titan, the Rt. Hon. Justin Pierre James Trudeau, Baron Teflonshire? Or the Theresa May of the loyal North American colony? That's gonna be the main question of this election because lord knows the Tories are a mess.

Expectations are set pretty high for the LPC right now. Anything short of a majority will feel like a Theresa May-esque faceplant, where an election held categorically to win a majority leads to a minority. According to 338Canada, there's about a 50% chance of this happening (their latest projection puts the Liberals at exactly 169 seats, one off a majority). Maybe their internals are looking better, as seemed to be the case in 2019 when the Liberals were acting pretty bullish while the rest of us were thinking they wouldn't cross 140. But based on the public polls, I wonder if Trudeau is being too bullish about getting ready to call an election to gain a majority.

It's easy to look at the CPC's disarray and think the Liberal path to a majority is easy-peasy, but I'm not so sure. If nobody thinks the Tories can win, strategic voting will soften and the NDP will make gains. Being held to a minority in 2019 wasn't so bad, but if that happens in 2021, it signals a serious vulnerability in the Liberal Party. Put simply, if they can't win a majority now, I struggle to see how they can do so in 2025, or whenever the 45th Canadian election gets held.

[Hatman 🍁]

Prince George and Kamloops maybe urban but small cities, sort of akin to Barrie and Brantford which still vote Tory although could lose both, but tend to perform better than they do overall and only lose in these cities if they have a really bad election.  In Canada, about half the country live in metro areas over 500,000 so even if Tories or parties on right elsewhere just dominate all those under 100,000, not nearly enough to win.

For Burlington and Kanata-Carleton, relative to province as a whole they were a decade clearly to right of it while now more or less in line thus go whichever way Ontario goes whereas a decade ago generally voted to right of province.

Barrie and Brantford aren't as big-C Conservative as PG though (Kamloops may be comparable). Brantford's Liberal/NDP strength gets drowned out by the conservative Brant County surrounding it, and Barrie is split awkwardly between two rural areas. On its own, both cities would be swing LPC-CPC ridings, while Prince George on its own would still vote Conservative

Might be worth adding that Brantford voted NDP in the 2018 ontario election, but the surrounding Brant County voted Conservative enough to give the riding to the PCs. Barrie though seems to have voted PC that year, because it's slightly more conservative and the left was split three way there, whereas in Brantford it rallied around the NDP.

For Barrie, before it was split up it was a a bit of a bellwether. I don't think the Liberals won it in 2019, but they probably did in 2015. Provincially the won it in 2007 and 2014, and federally in 2004 when it was in one riding.

As for Kanata, talk about an ancestrally Tory area. This is what I was talking about when I mentioned my Irish protestant heritage. There's lots of Irish protestant descendants in the area, which are your typical ancestral Tory voters. Of course, Kanata itself is a rapidly growing suburb, anchored by tech companies, and is fairly diverse. It may have cemented itself as a safe Liberal riding (providing the Liberals are competitive of course), much to the chagrin of the rural population. I wonder if following the next redistribution, Kanata will be large enough for its won seat, and they'd put West Carleton in with Lanark or something?

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/07/05/they-havent-got-a-competitor-whos-even-remotely-close-liberals-on-track-to-win-majority-in-expected-september-election-but-still-a-few-wild-cards/304638

Unbeatable electoral titan, the Rt. Hon. Justin Pierre James Trudeau, Baron Teflonshire? Or the Theresa May of the loyal North American colony? That's gonna be the main question of this election because lord knows the Tories are a mess.

Expectations are set pretty high for the LPC right now. Anything short of a majority will feel like a Theresa May-esque faceplant, where an election held categorically to win a majority leads to a minority. According to 338Canada, there's about a 50% chance of this happening (their latest projection puts the Liberals at exactly 169 seats, one off a majority). Maybe their internals are looking better, as seemed to be the case in 2019 when the Liberals were acting pretty bullish while the rest of us were thinking they wouldn't cross 140. But based on the public polls, I wonder if Trudeau is being too bullish about getting ready to call an election to gain a majority.

It's easy to look at the CPC's disarray and think the Liberal path to a majority is easy-peasy, but I'm not so sure. If nobody thinks the Tories can win, strategic voting will soften and the NDP will make gains. Being held to a minority in 2019 wasn't so bad, but if that happens in 2021, it signals a serious vulnerability in the Liberal Party. Put simply, if they can't win a majority now, I struggle to see how they can do so in 2025, or whenever the 45th Canadian election gets held.

I have felt for a while that Trudeau calling an election right now would be a mistake, mainly because a dominant Liberals and directionless Conservatives is a recipe for certain types of urban voters to feel safe defecting from the Liberals to their natural NDP home. Which in an instant would likely nullify any net gains made at the expense of the Tories.

[mileslunn]

Barrie and Brantford agree aren't Tory strongholds, but both cities do tend to vote to right of the province as a whole.  Yes the inclusion of rural parts no doubt helps Tories as well.  Now yes swing overall as Ontario and Canada as a whole tend to go Liberal most of the time and only Tory when Liberals overstay welcome.  Prince George and Kamloops are a bit more isolated and Interior has a very different economy than coastal BC (much more resource driven) thus why voting patterns much different.

I agree Kanata and Burlington increasingly becoming Liberal and days of Tory dominance long over.  I guess real question is when Tories do win, will they still be able to win those in future or are they lost.  I am thinking they still win those when they form government and if they get to point they can no longer win those, I don't see how they have a path to forming government then.

Do you think Anglo-Canada should change its alcohol sale system?

The United States only has private liquor stores, while Quebec (and I'm sure much of the rest of the world) goes farther and allows it to be sold in Grocery Stores and at Gas Stations.

Would you support doing the America approach of privatizing liquor stores, or the Quebec approach of allowing it to be sold in any store?

Quebec still has SAQ, but yes you can buy beer and wine at corner stores and gas stations unlike in most of Canada.  In Newfoundland you can also buy beer, but not wine or spirits at corner stores.  Alberta is similar to Australia, completely private, but has to be at an actual liquor store, no corner or grocery store sales.  New Zealand allows beer and wine at full sized supermarkets but not corner stores or gas stations and also private.  BC is a mixed system as while grocery stores cannot sell booze, we do have private liquor stores that compete alongside government.  Also in US, some states do have government stores, but usually only for hard liquor not beer and wine.  Most are private however, but like Canada laws very state by state.  Also several dry counties, particularly in South.

I don't know that it is puritanism nowadays as more public health concerns.  Most of opposition to liberalizing alcohol sales comes from left not right.  A combination of unions at government stores not wanting more competition while other is health concerns.  Canada has a very strong nanny state mentality in general so it goes more to that although historically yes was religious based.

nbeatable electoral titan, the Rt. Hon. Justin Pierre James Trudeau, Baron Teflonshire? Or the Theresa May of the loyal North American colony? That's gonna be the main question of this election because lord knows the Tories are a mess.

Expectations are set pretty high for the LPC right now. Anything short of a majority will feel like a Theresa May-esque faceplant, where an election held categorically to win a majority leads to a minority. According to 338Canada, there's about a 50% chance of this happening (their latest projection puts the Liberals at exactly 169 seats, one off a majority). Maybe their internals are looking better, as seemed to be the case in 2019 when the Liberals were acting pretty bullish while the rest of us were thinking they wouldn't cross 140. But based on the public polls, I wonder if Trudeau is being too bullish about getting ready to call an election to gain a majority.

It's easy to look at the CPC's disarray and think the Liberal path to a majority is easy-peasy, but I'm not so sure. If nobody thinks the Tories can win, strategic voting will soften and the NDP will make gains. Being held to a minority in 2019 wasn't so bad, but if that happens in 2021, it signals a serious vulnerability in the Liberal Party. Put simply, if they can't win a majority now, I struggle to see how they can do so in 2025, or whenever the 45th Canadian election gets held.

Agreed fully and I expect Tories to do really bad.  Still another wildcard is Canada gets a fourth wave like UK is having now.  High levels of vaccination seem to do a good job in preventing deaths and hospitalizations, but not necessarily cases (although in UK almost all cases amongst non-vaccinated).  Delta Variant especially worrisome as first shot only 30% effective while second is 80%.  Never mind when kids return in the Fall, that is another big risk as they haven't been vaccinated yet.  So be interesting how that could impact Trudeau.  Furey got hurt by a COVID wave.  Yukon now is having 15-20 cases a day which may not sound like a lot but relative to its population that would be like Canada having 15,000 to 20,000 a day so there is that.  And with COVID fatigue so high, I don't think public is willing to take another lockdown.  Maybe some minor restrictions, but I think we are done with full lockdowns.  And so this may hurt Trudeau.  Not enough to lose to Tories, but enough to ensure he doesn't get a majority

One good thing about going soon as Tories are at weak spot and thinking is worse Tories do, more likely O'Toole gets blamed for moderating too much so they replace him with a much further right socially conservative leader thus ensuring Liberals win again in 2025 or whenever next election is even if a minority.  If Tories at least recover, better chance next leader is more moderate who could pose a threat.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/07/05/they-havent-got-a-competitor-whos-even-remotely-close-liberals-on-track-to-win-majority-in-expected-september-election-but-still-a-few-wild-cards/304638

Unbeatable electoral titan, the Rt. Hon. Justin Pierre James Trudeau, Baron Teflonshire? Or the Theresa May of the loyal North American colony? That's gonna be the main question of this election because lord knows the Tories are a mess.

Expectations are set pretty high for the LPC right now. Anything short of a majority will feel like a Theresa May-esque faceplant, where an election held categorically to win a majority leads to a minority. According to 338Canada, there's about a 50% chance of this happening (their latest projection puts the Liberals at exactly 169 seats, one off a majority). Maybe their internals are looking better, as seemed to be the case in 2019 when the Liberals were acting pretty bullish while the rest of us were thinking they wouldn't cross 140. But based on the public polls, I wonder if Trudeau is being too bullish about getting ready to call an election to gain a majority.

It's easy to look at the CPC's disarray and think the Liberal path to a majority is easy-peasy, but I'm not so sure. If nobody thinks the Tories can win, strategic voting will soften and the NDP will make gains. Being held to a minority in 2019 wasn't so bad, but if that happens in 2021, it signals a serious vulnerability in the Liberal Party. Put simply, if they can't win a majority now, I struggle to see how they can do so in 2025, or whenever the 45th Canadian election gets held.

I have felt for a while that Trudeau calling an election right now would be a mistake, mainly because a dominant Liberals and directionless Conservatives is a recipe for certain types of urban voters to feel safe defecting from the Liberals to their natural NDP home. Which in an instant would likely nullify any net gains made at the expense of the Tories.

Exactly, this is the risk with the Liberal Party moving to the left too rapidly. It's not so much alienating centrists (as long as they avoid big tax hikes or politically-difficult policies like drug decrim, I think most centrist suburbanites are okay with a more left wing Liberal government), it's actually alienating the left. Sounds paradoxical, but this is how it works - you make big promises and lean into NDP rhetoric. You might excite voters in a situation like 2015 where Trudeau is a shiny new toy, but six years into a mandate, you're the status quo. Now there are high expectations, only heightened because the Liberals keep going for NDP-esque rhetoric. But the NDP will always find things to hammer you on. The indigenous child welfare court case is one they're leaning into, in 2019 it was "you bought a pipeline!", recently there have been talks about how the COVID benefits largely went to the wealthy, and so on. Their strongest argument is "elect more New Democrats, get more progressive policies"

This is the risk the LPC is taking, and it somewhat bears out in the polls. The Liberals' mid-30s polling is more or less the same as it was in fall 2020, it's the NDP that's now pushing 20% and the CPC falling below 30. It's the NDP that is going up, and like I said, 338 still only has the LPC at 50/50 chance at a majority despite so many things going their way.

So yeah, I don't really buy the "Grits will rule past 2030" theory. The Liberal tent isn't what it used to be, they rely heavily on left-wing voters who in their hearts prefer another party. They'll either have to find a way to kill the NDP's momentum first, or stake out a genuinely centrist position that can steal moderate conservatives. With the current cultural polarization of western politics, this is a hard task.

[Hatman 🍁]

Problem is, there aren't many more moderate conservatives to steal. They're either too partisan to vote Liberal, or they're already voting Liberal. Sure there are former Liberal voters who are put off by Trudeau's wokism, and socially liberal voters who care more about lower taxes, so still vote Conservative, but to win over those people, the Liberals risk alienating a far greater amount of people on the left. 

[mileslunn]

Problem is, there aren't many more moderate conservatives to steal. They're either too partisan to vote Liberal, or they're already voting Liberal. Sure there are former Liberal voters who are put off by Trudeau's wokism, and socially liberal voters who care more about lower taxes, so still vote Conservative, but to win over those people, the Liberals risk alienating a far greater amount of people on the left. 

Although with Conservatives in mid 20s, are they really winning those.  I can see how maybe provincially they are in last round and maybe did in 2019 but I think while a minority, the percentage of Canadians who are fiscally conservative (i.e. don't raise taxes, keep deficits under control, only spend what you can afford) is probably over 30% although likely under 40%.  Now yes I agree Liberals going rightward would be incredibly stupid.  It would only make sense if Tories implode completely and NDP actually starts winning.  Otherwise if federal politics start to look like BC politics then it might make sense, but we are ways away from that happening and I am skeptical it ever will.

Nonetheless most of Western Canada generally has a right wing party (BC Liberals, UCP, Saskatchewan Party, and Manitoba PCs) vs. NDP, but Eastern Canada has not gone that route.  As for globally, that used to be the case but now a lot more mixed up.  Social democratic parties overseas at all time lows, but their support hasn't really flowed to one party.  Some educated urban types going to Liberal parties, some going Greens, some going further left as feel they are abandoning core left policies, others going over to far right as many far right parties are left wing economically but culturally conservative.  So I think idea that UK system of Conservative vs. Labour is end results isn't necessarily the case especially in multi party systems.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Problem is, there aren't many more moderate conservatives to steal. They're either too partisan to vote Liberal, or they're already voting Liberal. Sure there are former Liberal voters who are put off by Trudeau's wokism, and socially liberal voters who care more about lower taxes, so still vote Conservative, but to win over those people, the Liberals risk alienating a far greater amount of people on the left. 

I agree with that, going after moderate conservatives is clearly much harder than going after promiscuous progressives. My point is more that validating an opponent's ideology and platform without showing the same ideological commitment as they would is a risky play. Another minority Liberal government would only strengthen the NDP's credibility as a serious party.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Nonetheless most of Western Canada generally has a right wing party (BC Liberals, UCP, Saskatchewan Party, and Manitoba PCs) vs. NDP, but Eastern Canada has not gone that route. 

What, Eastern Canada doesn't have right wing parties? Or am I misunderstanding what you're saying?

[If my soul was made of stone]

Nonetheless most of Western Canada generally has a right wing party (BC Liberals, UCP, Saskatchewan Party, and Manitoba PCs) vs. NDP, but Eastern Canada has not gone that route. 

What, Eastern Canada doesn't have right wing parties? Or am I misunderstanding what you're saying?

I assume he means that the NDP being the main opposition to the right is more of a western phenomenon, while the Liberals are much stronger in Ontario (2018 excepted) and eastwards.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Nonetheless most of Western Canada generally has a right wing party (BC Liberals, UCP, Saskatchewan Party, and Manitoba PCs) vs. NDP, but Eastern Canada has not gone that route. 

What, Eastern Canada doesn't have right wing parties? Or am I misunderstanding what you're saying?

I assume he means that the NDP being the main opposition to the right is more of a western phenomenon, while the Liberals are much stronger in Ontario (2018 excepted) and eastwards.

Ah, I missed the "vs the NDP" part, my bad

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/CP24/status/1412412813142802439

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/CP24/status/1412412813142802439

She doesn't speak french but is from Quebec. Going to be weird trying to see quebecer try to attack her for not knowing the language despite creating the schools that didn't teach it to her.

[2952-0-0]

She doesn't speak french but is from Quebec. Going to be weird trying to see quebecer try to attack her for not knowing the language despite creating the schools that didn't teach it to her.

The Inuit people of northern Quebec had their first contact with Europeans through the Hudson's Bay Company, and not the French settlers of the St. Lawrence Valley. Most of their interaction with European settlers was in English.

The First Nations people from "core" Quebec also strongly opposed Quebec separation for other historical reasons, but that's a tangent.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/CP24/status/1412412813142802439

She doesn't speak french but is from Quebec. Going to be weird trying to see quebecer try to attack her for not knowing the language despite creating the schools that didn't teach it to her.

Inuit schools were federally-run in 50's.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

She doesn't speak french but is from Quebec. Going to be weird trying to see quebecer try to attack her for not knowing the language despite creating the schools that didn't teach it to her.

The Inuit people of northern Quebec had their first contact with Europeans through the Hudson's Bay Company, and not the French settlers of the St. Lawrence Valley. Most of their interaction with European settlers was in English.

Northern Quebec wasn't even part of Quebec initially, it was still Rupert's Land at the time of Confederation. It was only included in Quebec after Rupert's Land was purchased, and the Abitibi/Jamesie/Nunavik/Eeyou Istchee area was included in Quebec out of simplicity