Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[King of Kensington]

I think a lot of people would enjoy seeing a Carney-Poilievre race.

[King of Kensington]

On another note, the Carney hype train went full steam when Catherine McKenna vacated her Ottawa Centre seat.

So much for keeping Ottawa Centre in Irish hands!

[Benjamin Frank]

This is apropos of nothing being discussed here at the present, but I was thinking of it, and it's a reason why I'm so skeptical of politicians who make absolutist principled arguments.

I doubt I can find a newspaper article on this, but I remember this quite clearly.

In 1993, the Reform Party elected 52 M.Ps including 24 in British Columbia and 22 in Alberta.  The Reform Party was a generally right wing populist party that argued for 'common sense conservatism' and against things like what is now referred to as 'wokeism' and affirmative action.

At the time the Reform Party was nominating candidates in British Columbia the party brass clearly didn't pay a lot of attention and they nominated people like Herb Grubel, an intelligent but fairly extreme reactionary economics professor, Ted White, a generally likeable but fairly flaky engineer who occasionally got a little too close to extremist groups like white nationalists.  (His problem seemed to be that he believed that EVERYBODY deserved to have their views represented) and Randy White an intelligent but volatile management accountant whose outburst before the 2004 election of "to heck with the courts" may have cost the Conservatives the election.

The only two of these M.Ps from British Columbia to make Stephen Harper's cabinet were John Duncan a professional forester (a person who maps out forests for cutting) who seemed to be reasonably capable and Jay Hill, who is now the leader of the pro-Alberta independence Maverick Party.

In contrast, in addition to Preston Manning and Deborah Grey, the only Reform M.P with federal Parliamentary experience as she was elected in a byelection shortly after the 1988 federal election were other capable people like Diane Ablonczy, a lawyer and farmer, Stephen Harper, Ian McClelland, the owner of a successful chain of photo processing outlets, Ray Speaker, a provincial Social Credit cabinet minister, Monte Solberg, an articulate radio station general manager and John Williams, an accountant with a capacity for detail.

All of these Alberta M.Ps were probably more capable than any Reform M.P from British Columbia. So, not surprisingly, as a believer in the principle of 'the best person for the job' Preston Manning initial shadow cabinet was dominated by Albertans who received most of the senior critic positions.

So, how did the British Columbia contingent take this?  Did they agree with Preston Manning that these Alberta M.Ps were the most capable and that they needed at least a couple years in Parliament before moving up in the ranks?  No! They demanded affirmative action arguing that British Columbia needed to be equally represented in the shadow cabinet especially since there were more Reform M.Ps from British Columbia than Alberta.  Not only that, they asked Reform Party supporters in British Columbia to flood Preston Manning with mail demanding that British Columbia receive equal shadow cabinet representation.

So much for these Reform Party M.Ps belief in absolutist principles when it was they who were the ones who felt unfairly treated.

[King of Kensington]

I gotta say, you have a veeery "Windsor" perspective of Ontario geography lol. I'm originally from the GTA (and therefore always right, bow down to me you provincial heathens and peasants), I'd divide it as:

- The GTA: Just the GTA, no geographic orientation required
- Hamilton/Niagara: Kind of a weird one geographically, I'd just call it Hamilton/Niagara
- Guelph westwards: Southwestern Ontario
- Between Guelph and Peterborough, south of Muskoka, excluding GTA: Central Ontario
- East of Peterborough, south of Pembroke: Eastern Ontario
- Muskoka, Kawartha Lakes, Algonquin Park: Cottage country, no man's land
- North of that: Northern Ontario

Northumberland/Kawarthas/Peterborough feel like a transition between eastern and central Ontario.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think a lot of people would enjoy seeing a Carney-Poilievre race.

Interesting, yes, but not the kind of race you throw a political rookie into if your intention is to get him into a cabinet role asap

[Benjamin Frank]

One other old time story that I just realized a couple days ago.  Peter Fenwick, the hardline pro union Newfoundland (and Labrador) provincial NDP leader in the 1980s ran for the Canadian Alliance Party in 2000.

Does anybody know more about this?

[King of Kensington]

At the time the Reform Party was nominating candidates in British Columbia the party brass clearly didn't pay a lot of attention and they nominated people like Herb Grubel, an intelligent but fairly extreme reactionary economics professor, Ted White, a generally likeable but fairly flaky engineer who occasionally got a little too close to extremist groups like white nationalists.  (His problem seemed to be that he believed that EVERYBODY deserved to have their views represented) and Randy White an intelligent but volatile management accountant whose outburst before the 2004 election of "to heck with the courts" may have cost the Conservatives the election.

The idea of Herb Grubel and Ted White representing Vancouver's North Shore just seems inconceivable today.  Reform had a strong ultra-right wing reactionary suburbia element.  Even in Calgary these two would be a bad fit today.

[2952-0-0]

I think a lot of people would enjoy seeing a Carney-Poilievre race.

Interesting, yes, but not the kind of race you throw a political rookie into if your intention is to get him into a cabinet role asap

OTOH, they can't make Ignatieff's mistake and just gift him a safe seat.

[Benjamin Frank]

At the time the Reform Party was nominating candidates in British Columbia the party brass clearly didn't pay a lot of attention and they nominated people like Herb Grubel, an intelligent but fairly extreme reactionary economics professor, Ted White, a generally likeable but fairly flaky engineer who occasionally got a little too close to extremist groups like white nationalists.  (His problem seemed to be that he believed that EVERYBODY deserved to have their views represented) and Randy White an intelligent but volatile management accountant whose outburst before the 2004 election of "to heck with the courts" may have cost the Conservatives the election.

The idea of Herb Grubel and Ted White representing Vancouver's North Shore just seems inconceivable today.  Reform had a strong ultra-right wing reactionary suburbia element.  Even in Calgary these two would be a bad fit today.

I don't think Ted White was a bad person, and I don't think he was ultra right wing personally, I used to hear him regularly on Rafe Mair and other talk shows.  He was just a democratic absolutist who didn't bother to think if the views he was representing were valid/sound.

In regards to Herb Grubel, I think he was better in many ways than John Reynolds who succeeded him.  

[King of Kensington]

Interesting, yes, but not the kind of race you throw a political rookie into if your intention is to get him into a cabinet role asap

Absolutely not.  Maybe they should give him St. Paul's or something.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This is apropos of nothing being discussed here at the present, but I was thinking of it, and it's a reason why I'm so skeptical of politicians who make absolutist principled arguments.

I doubt I can find a newspaper article on this, but I remember this quite clearly.

In 1993, the Reform Party elected 52 M.Ps including 24 in British Columbia and 22 in Alberta.  The Reform Party was a generally right wing populist party that argued for 'common sense conservatism' and against things like what is now referred to as 'wokeism' and affirmative action.

At the time the Reform Party was nominating candidates in British Columbia the party brass clearly didn't pay a lot of attention and they nominated people like Herb Grubel, an intelligent but fairly extreme reactionary economics professor, Ted White, a generally likeable but fairly flaky engineer who occasionally got a little too close to extremist groups like white nationalists.  (His problem seemed to be that he believed that EVERYBODY deserved to have their views represented) and Randy White an intelligent but volatile management accountant whose outburst before the 2004 election of "to heck with the courts" may have cost the Conservatives the election.

The only two of these M.Ps from British Columbia to make Stephen Harper's cabinet were John Duncan a professional forester (a person who maps out forests for cutting) who seemed to be reasonably capable and Jay Hill, who is now the leader of the pro-Alberta independence Maverick Party.

In contrast, in addition to Preston Manning and Deborah Grey, the only Reform M.P with federal Parliamentary experience as she was elected in a byelection shortly after the 1988 federal election were other capable people like Diane Ablonczy, a lawyer and farmer, Stephen Harper, Ian McClelland, the owner of a successful chain of photo processing outlets, Ray Speaker, a provincial Social Credit cabinet minister, Monte Solberg, a smart radio station manager and John Williams, an accountant.

All of these Alberta M.Ps were probably more capable than any Reform M.P from British Columbia. So, not surprisingly, as a believer in the principle of 'the best person for the job' Preston Manning initial shadow cabinet was dominated by Albertans who received most of the senior critic positions.

So, how did the British Columbia contingent take this?  Did they agree with Preston Manning that these Alberta M.Ps were the most capable and that they needed at least a couple years in Parliament before moving up in the ranks?  No! They demanded affirmative action arguing that British Columbia needed to be equally represented in the shadow cabinet especially since there were more Reform M.Ps from British Columbia than Alberta.  Not only that, they asked Reform Party supporters in British Columbia to flood Preston Manning with mail demanding that British Columbia receive affirmative action shadow cabinet representation.

So much for these Reform Party M.Ps belief in absolutist principles when it was they who were the ones who felt unfairly treated.

Interesting, though not surprising. Most people are only interested in principles as far as it advances their interests. Like how a lot of American conservatives talk about free speech and expression as one of their guiding principles, but get upset when black athletes kneel during the national anthem. I'm with you on not trusting "principled ideologues" because they very rarely are as principled as advertised (and those who are rarely get anywhere in the world of politics, because politics is ultimately about getting things done and not grandstanding about ideological purity).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think a lot of people would enjoy seeing a Carney-Poilievre race.

Interesting, yes, but not the kind of race you throw a political rookie into if your intention is to get him into a cabinet role asap

OTOH, they can't make Ignatieff's mistake and just gift him a safe seat.

It's not really the same situation though, is it? Iggy never got cabinet experience, but if Carney runs and wins in a possibly imminent 2021 election, he almost certainly will because the chance of a non-Liberal government is so low at this point. Besides I dont think the safe seat was what made Ignatieff a bad politician, he was just a bad politician to begin with. Who knows if Carney would make a good one but a cabinet position would be a good test.

I'd hate to see Carney run in Carleton though. Imagine all this hype, all this potential, the chance of adding real credibility to this government on the economy file, the chance of creating a competitive race for the direction of a post-Trudeau LPC...all gone to waste because of Pierre Poilievre. Carleton is still a tough seat for the Liberals

[Benjamin Frank]

This is apropos of nothing being discussed here at the present, but I was thinking of it, and it's a reason why I'm so skeptical of politicians who make absolutist principled arguments.

I doubt I can find a newspaper article on this, but I remember this quite clearly.

In 1993, the Reform Party elected 52 M.Ps including 24 in British Columbia and 22 in Alberta.  The Reform Party was a generally right wing populist party that argued for 'common sense conservatism' and against things like what is now referred to as 'wokeism' and affirmative action.

At the time the Reform Party was nominating candidates in British Columbia the party brass clearly didn't pay a lot of attention and they nominated people like Herb Grubel, an intelligent but fairly extreme reactionary economics professor, Ted White, a generally likeable but fairly flaky engineer who occasionally got a little too close to extremist groups like white nationalists.  (His problem seemed to be that he believed that EVERYBODY deserved to have their views represented) and Randy White an intelligent but volatile management accountant whose outburst before the 2004 election of "to heck with the courts" may have cost the Conservatives the election.

The only two of these M.Ps from British Columbia to make Stephen Harper's cabinet were John Duncan a professional forester (a person who maps out forests for cutting) who seemed to be reasonably capable and Jay Hill, who is now the leader of the pro-Alberta independence Maverick Party.

In contrast, in addition to Preston Manning and Deborah Grey, the only Reform M.P with federal Parliamentary experience as she was elected in a byelection shortly after the 1988 federal election were other capable people like Diane Ablonczy, a lawyer and farmer, Stephen Harper, Ian McClelland, the owner of a successful chain of photo processing outlets, Ray Speaker, a provincial Social Credit cabinet minister, Monte Solberg, a smart radio station manager and John Williams, an accountant.

All of these Alberta M.Ps were probably more capable than any Reform M.P from British Columbia. So, not surprisingly, as a believer in the principle of 'the best person for the job' Preston Manning initial shadow cabinet was dominated by Albertans who received most of the senior critic positions.

So, how did the British Columbia contingent take this?  Did they agree with Preston Manning that these Alberta M.Ps were the most capable and that they needed at least a couple years in Parliament before moving up in the ranks?  No! They demanded affirmative action arguing that British Columbia needed to be equally represented in the shadow cabinet especially since there were more Reform M.Ps from British Columbia than Alberta.  Not only that, they asked Reform Party supporters in British Columbia to flood Preston Manning with mail demanding that British Columbia receive affirmative action shadow cabinet representation.

So much for these Reform Party M.Ps belief in absolutist principles when it was they who were the ones who felt unfairly treated.

Interesting, though not surprising. Most people are only interested in principles as far as it advances their interests. Like how a lot of American conservatives talk about free speech and expression as one of their guiding principles, but get upset when black athletes kneel during the national anthem. I'm with you on not trusting "principled ideologues" because they very rarely are as principled as advertised (and those who are rarely get anywhere in the world of politics, because politics is ultimately about getting things done and not grandstanding about ideological purity).

Yes, the other point I was trying to get at was how easy it is for grandstanding politicians to flip from one absolutist principle to another, even when the other is completely the opposite of the first.

So, the absolutist principle for these M.Ps was 'best person for the job' until it became equal provincial representation through affirmative action.

I think we obviously see this with Republicans who are (or claim to be) anti 'cancel culture' except when it comes to the transgendered and to the teaching of actual history in schools, when they completely demand cancel culture.

[Benjamin Frank]

I think a lot of people would enjoy seeing a Carney-Poilievre race.

Interesting, yes, but not the kind of race you throw a political rookie into if your intention is to get him into a cabinet role asap

OTOH, they can't make Ignatieff's mistake and just gift him a safe seat.

It's not really the same situation though, is it? Iggy never got cabinet experience, but if Carney runs and wins in a possibly imminent 2021 election, he almost certainly will because the chance of a non-Liberal government is so low at this point. Besides I dont think the safe seat was what made Ignatieff a bad politician, he was just a bad politician to begin with. Who knows if Carney would make a good one but a cabinet position would be a good test.

I'd hate to see Carney run in Carleton though. Imagine all this hype, all this potential, the chance of adding real credibility to this government on the economy file, the chance of creating a competitive race for the direction of a post-Trudeau LPC...all gone to waste because of Pierre Poilievre. Carleton is still a tough seat for the Liberals

Michael Ignatieff is one of those I regard as a highly intelligent idiot.  This is not the same as 'book smarts' vs street smarts, but a person who is clearly very perceptive but just seems to lack common sense.  The other obvious examples are former Conservative Immigration Minister Chris Alexander, and former B.C Liberal Party leader Andrew Wilkinson.  I'm not sure if Bill Morneau should be included in this group or not.  He had a great resume prior to entering politics, but unlike Ignatieff, Alexander and Wilkinson who all were clearly very perceptive, Morneau never struck me as actually being very intelligent.  I'm not sure if he just dumbed down his economic arguments (he has a masters in economics) too much to the point where it sounded like he thought he was talking to elementary school students, though.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Another is that, at least until very recently, the Liberals (and even the NDP) were entirely capable of winning rural ridings.

They both still are. The Liberals dominate the mostly rural Atlantic provinces, have a few rural Quebec seats (and could win a lot more when the Bloc is weak), and do decently well in rural Northern Ontario and the territories. The NDP also wins rural seats, mostly in indigenous-heavy areas.

Even in Southwestern Ontario, though, the Liberals used to be able to win rural seats as recently as 2004, when Paul Martin won everything from Huron-Bruce to Leamington (but ironically not his actual hometown of Windsor or Essex), seats that even in the last election went Tory by over 50%.

You're right that "rural" means completely different things in the North, Quebec and the Atlantic but SWO has seen a Michigan-like rural shift.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is it time to start using the phrase "ancestral Liberal" to describe areas like Kent County or Renfrew County the same way "ancestral Democrat" has become a popular term these days?

Huron, Bruce, Perth, Lambton, Grey and SDG also have some ancestral Liberal voting histories (especially in provincial elections). When you throw provincial history into the mix, you have to all account for the fact that the OLP used to be to the right of the PCs.  

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Another is that, at least until very recently, the Liberals (and even the NDP) were entirely capable of winning rural ridings.

They both still are. The Liberals dominate the mostly rural Atlantic provinces, have a few rural Quebec seats (and could win a lot more when the Bloc is weak), and do decently well in rural Northern Ontario and the territories. The NDP also wins rural seats, mostly in indigenous-heavy areas.

Even in Southwestern Ontario, though, the Liberals used to be able to win rural seats as recently as 2004, when Paul Martin won everything from Huron-Bruce to Leamington (but ironically not his actual hometown of Windsor or Essex), seats that even in the last election went Tory by over 50%.

You're right that "rural" means completely different things in the North, Quebec and the Atlantic but SWO has seen a Michigan-like rural shift.

True, that ancestral Liberal vote stayed strong into the 2000s, and vanished almost immediately. It's worth noting that many of those rural SWO Liberals during the Chretien-Martin years were social conservatives, and their political views would not be welcome in the Liberal Party these days. As the socially conservative Liberal disappeared, so did (rural) southwestern Ontario from the Liberal column.

[King of Kensington]

So in a discussion where the right-wing nature of Eastern Ontario comes up no mention of the MPP for Lanark? I don't think there's a worse elected official in Canada than Randy Hillier.  Not that he'll win or anything (he may not run again). 

[King of Kensington]

Peterborough has K postal codes ("eastern") but is in the 705 area code (central/northern).  It attracts Toronto cottagers but the urban form is rather Eastern Ontario-like.

[mileslunn]

As for ancestral Liberal, should include ancestral NDP and ancestral Tory.  In Atlantic Canada you have a number of ancestrally Red Tory ridings that went solidly PC, but in recent years now Liberal like South Shore-St. Margaret's or Central Nova.  Also more recently you have your affluent educated ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton, and two North Shore in BC which used to be reliably conservative, but now seem like safe Liberal, although I do think Tories if they ditched the cultural and social conservatism might still have a chance in those, but may not (hard to know for sure).  Could a Michael Chong or Peter MacKay led Tory party win those or are they gone?

For NDP, much of Saskatchewan north of Regina would fall into this.  Oshawa, Essex, and Brantford-Brant are also sort of examples of your blue collar once solidly NDP-Liberal, but now increasingly Conservative.  In BC, Kootenay-Columbia probably best example of ancestral NDP.  Yes went NDP in 2015, but seems to be moving away.  Provincially certainly much bigger shift as Prince George, Kamloops, East Kootenays, and Cariboo all went NDP in 90s and were tight races in 2005 and 2009, but since 2013 have swung hard towards BC Liberals and even in 2020 disaster they held those areas.

[Benjamin Frank]

As for ancestral Liberal, should include ancestral NDP and ancestral Tory.  In Atlantic Canada you have a number of ancestrally Red Tory ridings that went solidly PC, but in recent years now Liberal like South Shore-St. Margaret's or Central Nova.  Also more recently you have your affluent educated ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton, and two North Shore in BC which used to be reliably conservative, but now seem like safe Liberal, although I do think Tories if they ditched the cultural and social conservatism might still have a chance in those, but may not (hard to know for sure).  Could a Michael Chong or Peter MacKay led Tory party win those or are they gone?

For NDP, much of Saskatchewan north of Regina would fall into this.  Oshawa, Essex, and Brantford-Brant are also sort of examples of your blue collar once solidly NDP-Liberal, but now increasingly Conservative.  In BC, Kootenay-Columbia probably best example of ancestral NDP.  Yes went NDP in 2015, but seems to be moving away.  Provincially certainly much bigger shift as Prince George, Kamloops, East Kootenays, and Cariboo all went NDP in 90s and were tight races in 2005 and 2009, but since 2013 have swung hard towards BC Liberals and even in 2020 disaster they held those areas.

For the city of Prince George provincially, I think the popularity of Shirley Bond is a big reason why the Liberals are so dominant there.

And, for some reason that I can't fathom, Todd Stone also seems to be very popular in the city of Kamloops.

[mileslunn]

As for ancestral Liberal, should include ancestral NDP and ancestral Tory.  In Atlantic Canada you have a number of ancestrally Red Tory ridings that went solidly PC, but in recent years now Liberal like South Shore-St. Margaret's or Central Nova.  Also more recently you have your affluent educated ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton, and two North Shore in BC which used to be reliably conservative, but now seem like safe Liberal, although I do think Tories if they ditched the cultural and social conservatism might still have a chance in those, but may not (hard to know for sure).  Could a Michael Chong or Peter MacKay led Tory party win those or are they gone?

For NDP, much of Saskatchewan north of Regina would fall into this.  Oshawa, Essex, and Brantford-Brant are also sort of examples of your blue collar once solidly NDP-Liberal, but now increasingly Conservative.  In BC, Kootenay-Columbia probably best example of ancestral NDP.  Yes went NDP in 2015, but seems to be moving away.  Provincially certainly much bigger shift as Prince George, Kamloops, East Kootenays, and Cariboo all went NDP in 90s and were tight races in 2005 and 2009, but since 2013 have swung hard towards BC Liberals and even in 2020 disaster they held those areas.

For the city of Prince George provincially, I think the popularity of Shirley Bond is a big reason why the Liberals are so dominant there.

And, for some reason that I can't fathom, Todd Stone also seems to be very popular in the city of Kamloops.

Partly, but Prince George has two provincial ridings and BC Liberals won both by over 20 points in 2020.  Ditto Kamloops while Todd Stone's riding includes the more affluent part of Kamloops which is the south side while north side is more working class thus traditionally better for NDP.  I mean not all bad for NDP as while they've lost some traditional ones in Interior, they've more than made than up by gaining many traditional BC Liberal ones in Lower Mainland so shift ended up working out in their favour overall.

[Benjamin Frank]

As for ancestral Liberal, should include ancestral NDP and ancestral Tory.  In Atlantic Canada you have a number of ancestrally Red Tory ridings that went solidly PC, but in recent years now Liberal like South Shore-St. Margaret's or Central Nova.  Also more recently you have your affluent educated ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton, and two North Shore in BC which used to be reliably conservative, but now seem like safe Liberal, although I do think Tories if they ditched the cultural and social conservatism might still have a chance in those, but may not (hard to know for sure).  Could a Michael Chong or Peter MacKay led Tory party win those or are they gone?

For NDP, much of Saskatchewan north of Regina would fall into this.  Oshawa, Essex, and Brantford-Brant are also sort of examples of your blue collar once solidly NDP-Liberal, but now increasingly Conservative.  In BC, Kootenay-Columbia probably best example of ancestral NDP.  Yes went NDP in 2015, but seems to be moving away.  Provincially certainly much bigger shift as Prince George, Kamloops, East Kootenays, and Cariboo all went NDP in 90s and were tight races in 2005 and 2009, but since 2013 have swung hard towards BC Liberals and even in 2020 disaster they held those areas.

For the city of Prince George provincially, I think the popularity of Shirley Bond is a big reason why the Liberals are so dominant there.

And, for some reason that I can't fathom, Todd Stone also seems to be very popular in the city of Kamloops.

Partly, but Prince George has two provincial ridings and BC Liberals won both by over 20 points in 2020.  Ditto Kamloops while Todd Stone's riding includes the more affluent part of Kamloops which is the south side while north side is more working class thus traditionally better for NDP.  I mean not all bad for NDP as while they've lost some traditional ones in Interior, they've more than made than up by gaining many traditional BC Liberal ones in Lower Mainland so shift ended up working out in their favour overall.

I think Shirley Bond's popularity benefits the Liberals in and around Prince George, not just in her riding.

Peter Milobar was only reelected by 1.5% in the other Kamloops area riding despite having been a popular 3 term mayor.

I think Kamloops will be a very interesting riding federally, if there is an election, with the nearby fires.  It's been fairly competitive but the Liberals and the NDP have been splitting the vote and the Conservatives consistently get fairly narrowly elected.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Also more recently you have your affluent educated ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton, and two North Shore in BC which used to be reliably conservative, but now seem like safe Liberal, although I do think Tories if they ditched the cultural and social conservatism might still have a chance in those, but may not (hard to know for sure).  Could a Michael Chong or Peter MacKay led Tory party win those or are they gone?

I can't speak for the north shore ridings in BC (other than to say that West Van-Sea to Sky has a really weird distribution), but the Ontario ones have changed a lot. Kanata is something of an economic hub in its own right with the huge tech industry there, going from Ottawa proper to Kanata feels almost like driving out of the city. Burlington also has a similar vibe these days. Generally, as metropolitan areas grow, once-suburban areas turn into mini-urban cores in their own right and this changes the political complexion, namely adding an NDP element and generally weakening the Tories. FWIW both Burlington and Kanata are PC-held provincially, but with all things being equal (which they most certainly were not in Onpoli 2018), they're still competitive ridings - whereas in the past, Burlington and Kanata would have been lean Tory.

[Benjamin Frank]

Also more recently you have your affluent educated ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton, and two North Shore in BC which used to be reliably conservative, but now seem like safe Liberal, although I do think Tories if they ditched the cultural and social conservatism might still have a chance in those, but may not (hard to know for sure).  Could a Michael Chong or Peter MacKay led Tory party win those or are they gone?

I can't speak for the north shore ridings in BC (other than to say that West Van-Sea to Sky has a really weird distribution), but the Ontario ones have changed a lot. Kanata is something of an economic hub in its own right with the huge tech industry there, going from Ottawa proper to Kanata feels almost like driving out of the city. Burlington also has a similar vibe these days. Generally, as metropolitan areas grow, once-suburban areas turn into mini-urban cores in their own right and this changes the political complexion, namely adding an NDP element and generally weakening the Tories. FWIW both Burlington and Kanata are PC-held provincially, but with all things being equal (which they most certainly were not in Onpoli 2018), they're still competitive ridings - whereas in the past, Burlington and Kanata would have been lean Tory.

Not that long ago, going to Kanata was driving out of the city of Ottawa.