Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

What's a "poison pill" that would get the Tories and the Bloc and the NDP to vote to bring down Trudeau?

Like Higgs, Furey, Pallister, and Horgan, Trudeau will call one won't wait to fall on confidence vote.

[Benjamin Frank]

Looking back two decades, the Lower Mainland of BC and Vancouver Island embracing Preston Manning and Stockwell Day sure looks weird today.  But so was the election of Rob Ford as mayor of Toronto.  

1.Preston Manning was not the far right wing person his opponents tried to caricature him as.  To be sure, his signature issue was the deficit and he was suspicious of government, but he was mostly a 'process politician' primarily interested with how laws were implemented much more so than what those laws were. 

Manning might be the only successful populist 'process politician' to ever exist.

He used to speak of the Reform Party with the analogy of an airplane, arguing that it needed both a right and a left wing to stay in the air.

2.Vancouver Island is not as standard left wing as outsiders think it is.  It has historically been far more populist than left wing.  So, the unpopularity of the provincial Harcourt government in 1993 combined with Manning's populism made Vancouver Island (outside of Victoria which went Liberal) a fertile ground for the Reform Party.  The same was true in the North West of B.C, the Federal Skeena riding as well as the Kootenays, other areas that have historically been left leaning populist areas.  Interestingly in 1993, The Chretien Liberals almost won the West Kootenay riding with the NDP falling to third.

3.In the Lower Mainland, I think the unpopularity of the Pierre Trudeau years hurt the Chretien Liberals as a fair number of 'red Tories' likely stuck with the Progressive Conservatives in 1993.  To be sure, the outer parts of the Lower Mainland like Surrey, Langley and the Maple Ridge area were more right leaning then than now, but a number of the inner ridings around Vancouver were very close races.  The most competitive was the New Westminster riding which Reform Paul Forseth won with just 29% of the vote.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

You don't need to bridge the divide. Just let the PC-equivalent run a center right UK Tory style campaign that runs on a carbon tax and beating down SoCons for those key upper middle class urban/suburban votes while the Reform-equivalent runs with all the policies that let it dominate the Prairies and that (especially recently) provided inroads in postindustrial ex-NDP regions like Essex and Oshawa.

As it stands a single Tory leader is forced to choose between their base and growth, whereas two Tory leaders could get both. If anything being divided is a good thing, since that makes it harder for Trudeau to do his usual trick of painting the Tories as Republicans to alienate centrist suburbanites.

Also, of course Trudeau is at his peak when he's paying a huge portion of the population to stay home. The same trick worked quite a while for Bolsonaro. But the real question is what happens to his popularity when the bill comes due, either in the form of austerity and service cuts when the BoC raises rates or inflation if it doesn't. I've seen zero explanations for how we're going to handle the debt (let alone provincial debt) when real rates aren't negative.

I'm sure Trudeau will capitalize by holding an election sooner rather than later though, ideally by baiting the other parties into forcing it somehow.

The PCs and Reform/Alliance merged *because* the alternative was another decade of Liberal majorities with ~35% of the popular vote. More specifically, the PCs never recovered from the shocks of Mulroney's last years, and were a spent force. It's possible that, given another decade, the Alliance Party could have itself evolved into a big-tent centre-right party, but we'll never know.

There would certainly be room for a moderate, centre-right party. Unfortunately, the First Past The Post system makes it unviable.

That was with both parties stepping on each others toes, though. By a brief scan of the '93 results it looks like the PCs and Reform combined had enough votes to win several dozen ridings that they otherwise would have lost, particularly in BC, SK, ON and NB. Strategic primaries/dropping out (probably) wouldn't have been enough in '93 but in ['97 there were even more split ridings](http://esm.ubc.ca/CA97/results.html).

The PCs weren't what they used to be but they were hardly dead in the water considering Charest managed to get them from 2 to 20 seats.

Virtually every democratically elected government gave generous cash handouts over the past year. But, if buying voters with their own money was the magic elixir to keep power, then Trump would have won. People want real leadership, or at least the perception of it (admittedly, Trudeau did much better on the latter than the former). The debt will have to be addressed through big tax hikes, which most peer countries are going to introduce in some form in the coming years.

Did we follow the same election? Trump did everything he could to shovel out as much money as possible but he was blocked by the House and Senate. Whenever he did manage to get cheques out his approval increased considerably.

People want money in their pockets and the perception of safety, hence why Cuomo and Legault are (were?) the most popular subnational leaders in the US and Canada despite having literally the worst metrics of their respective countries.

As for tax hikes, if France and Colombia are of any indication people aren't going to take tax hikes very well.

[King of Kensington]

Yes, Manning was very much in the tradition of Western populism.  Day however was more known for his fundamentalist Christian beliefs than anything else though (and his signature economic issue was a not particularly populist flat tax).  It is kinda hilarious that "the left coast" voted for him.  But I suppose the anti-Liberal mood in the West, the massive unpopularity of Glen Clark's NDP government and the coalescing of the right-wing vote helped the Alliance.

Granted the city of Vancouver and the city of Victoria never elected a Reform or Alliance MP.  And of course the suburbs of Van are a lot more diverse now and have undergone a "GTA-ization" of sorts.  The southern half of Van Island also seems totally unwinnable for the Conservatives now too.

And forget feelings of "solidarity" with Alberta as fellow Westerners and all that.

[Don Vito Corleone]

In the long run the Tories would have been better off had the PCs and Reform never merged. The differences between the Anglicized, urbane Atlantic PCs and the Americanized, populist Reformers (not to mention the Quebec separatists) are too great to be bridged by any but the most skilled politicians (and even Harper's coalition was falling apart by the end). It would make far more sense for two separate right of center parties to focus on the regions they're best at while strategically not running candidates in key swing ridings (presumably after negotiations and/or local primaries).

But how would not merging change anything? You would still need to bridge the divide between the various strains of Conservatism in Canada; the only difference is now they are in separate parties as well. It's not like this was new either; the pre-1993 PCs also suffered from regionalism that harmed their electoral chances. FWIW, your idea of having different Conservative Parties run in various regions was actually proposed but was shot down.

You don't need to bridge the divide. Just let the PC-equivalent run a center right UK Tory style campaign that runs on a carbon tax and beating down SoCons for those key upper middle class urban/suburban votes while the Reform-equivalent runs with all the policies that let it dominate the Prairies and that (especially recently) provided inroads in postindustrial ex-NDP regions like Essex and Oshawa.

As it stands a single Tory leader is forced to choose between their base and growth, whereas two Tory leaders could get both. If anything being divided is a good thing, since that makes it harder for Trudeau to do his usual trick of painting the Tories as Republicans to alienate centrist suburbanites.

What? You don't mean to tell me you think you can have two parties run as one and not change anything in either party surely? Come on now. They would have to mash out an understanding between each other or any coalition would fall apart before it formed. For instance, if the PCs ran on a carbon tax as you say, how do you think their Reform/Alliance partners would take it? Do you think they'd just accept it as is? No, of course not! The two parties would have to sit down and figure out what they collectively stood for; in order for them to function as one party they'd have to... function as one party. And if you're going to do that, why not just merge? Especially since A) If you act as one party people will treat you as one party and B) The PCs were on life support anyway.

[mileslunn]

I think bridging divide between moderates and base is even harder than a decade ago thus why I have stated I don't see Tories winning for a very long time.  With base going into echo chambers, they are becoming even more extreme and more detached from reality.  By contrast both the pandemic as well as other issues like climate change and income inequality have pushed median voter leftward.  Both of those issues weren't as pertinent in 2011 when Harper won his majority as now while things like taxes and deficits are less important than they were in past.  So unlike a decade ago where many in centre were open to conservative ideas on some issues, I would argue median voter now sits firmly on left therefore building a winning Tory coalition is not feasible at the moment.

What is interesting is globally things look pretty good for the right.  Pink tide in full retreat in Latin America.  Social democratic parties in Europe at all time lows and right in power in most European countries and continuing to grow each election cycle.  In Asia, India has seen INC greatly diminished and right growing in many countries.  New Zealand maybe the one that is bucking trend like Canada, but also that could be more due to good COVID management as National was in mid 40s before that so it seems that left wing swing is largely unique to Canada.  Some suggest US, but it seems pretty split down the middle as usual. 

I have stated many times, I believe Canada will emerge as the hub for progressive thinking and country where progressives have greatest electoral success.  In fact Canada may emerge as only and first democracy where conservatives cannot win.

[2952-0-0]

Did we follow the same election? Trump did everything he could to shovel out as much money as possible but he was blocked by the House and Senate. Whenever he did manage to get cheques out his approval increased considerably.

People want money in their pockets and the perception of safety, hence why Cuomo and Legault are (were?) the most popular subnational leaders in the US and Canada despite having literally the worst metrics of their respective countries.

As for tax hikes, if France and Colombia are of any indication people aren't going to take tax hikes very well.

Trump was initially reluctant to support economic shutdowns, but when they became inevitable, he agreed to the generous cash handouts (with his signature on the cheques). That week where he acted somewhat presidentially gave him a bump in his approval rate, before it fell back to its default 40-45%.

As for tax hikes, I was referring to Biden's plan to "soak the rich". The US is so influential that major policy shifts will inevitably be followed across the democratic and even non-democratic world. If Biden is successful, then his policies will be picked up elsewhere.

What is interesting is globally things look pretty good for the right.  Pink tide in full retreat in Latin America.  Social democratic parties in Europe at all time lows and right in power in most European countries and continuing to grow each election cycle.  In Asia, India has seen INC greatly diminished and right growing in many countries.  New Zealand maybe the one that is bucking trend like Canada, but also that could be more due to good COVID management as National was in mid 40s before that so it seems that left wing swing is largely unique to Canada.  Some suggest US, but it seems pretty split down the middle as usual. 

I have stated many times, I believe Canada will emerge as the hub for progressive thinking and country where progressives have greatest electoral success.  In fact Canada may emerge as only and first democracy where conservatives cannot win.

We're globally in a state of flux, but one thing is clear: the Reagan/Thatcher era is over. Economic policy will be more interventionist. Even in dictatorships like China and Russia, this trend has become evident. I don't agree that the right is ascendent globally, but do agree that the successful mainstream conservative parties are pivoting leftwards on economic issues (e.g. UK Tories). Trump did so rhetorically, but his substantive economic policy was little different from the last few Republican presidents. Mainstream centre-left parties that are perceived to be wedded to Blairism suffered the most.

Erin O'Toole somewhat understood this, and did dabble in pivoting towards blue-collar voters. But he lacks credibility in doing so, especially when the Liberals are actually delivering interventionist policy.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/katiederosayyj/status/1391855853649555457?s=19

Long way off but could be even harder for the BC Liberals to bounce back next time, especially as the bill eliminates the protected ridings in areas like Peace River.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/katiederosayyj/status/1391855853649555457?s=19

Long way off but could be even harder for the BC Liberals to bounce back next time, especially as the bill eliminates the protected ridings in areas like Peace River.

Depends on who BC Liberals chose and how NDP governs.  Certainly if BC Liberals remain stuck in BC Interior, absolutely, but Lower Mainland suburbs were their strongholds a decade ago so not totally bad, but party will have to change quite a bit to win them back. 

[mileslunn]

Did we follow the same election? Trump did everything he could to shovel out as much money as possible but he was blocked by the House and Senate. Whenever he did manage to get cheques out his approval increased considerably.

People want money in their pockets and the perception of safety, hence why Cuomo and Legault are (were?) the most popular subnational leaders in the US and Canada despite having literally the worst metrics of their respective countries.

As for tax hikes, if France and Colombia are of any indication people aren't going to take tax hikes very well.

Trump was initially reluctant to support economic shutdowns, but when they became inevitable, he agreed to the generous cash handouts (with his signature on the cheques). That week where he acted somewhat presidentially gave him a bump in his approval rate, before it fell back to its default 40-45%.

As for tax hikes, I was referring to Biden's plan to "soak the rich". The US is so influential that major policy shifts will inevitably be followed across the democratic and even non-democratic world. If Biden is successful, then his policies will be picked up elsewhere.

What is interesting is globally things look pretty good for the right.  Pink tide in full retreat in Latin America.  Social democratic parties in Europe at all time lows and right in power in most European countries and continuing to grow each election cycle.  In Asia, India has seen INC greatly diminished and right growing in many countries.  New Zealand maybe the one that is bucking trend like Canada, but also that could be more due to good COVID management as National was in mid 40s before that so it seems that left wing swing is largely unique to Canada.  Some suggest US, but it seems pretty split down the middle as usual. 

I have stated many times, I believe Canada will emerge as the hub for progressive thinking and country where progressives have greatest electoral success.  In fact Canada may emerge as only and first democracy where conservatives cannot win.

We're globally in a state of flux, but one thing is clear: the Reagan/Thatcher era is over. Economic policy will be more interventionist. Even in dictatorships like China and Russia, this trend has become evident. I don't agree that the right is ascendent globally, but do agree that the successful mainstream conservative parties are pivoting leftwards on economic issues (e.g. UK Tories). Trump did so rhetorically, but his substantive economic policy was little different from the last few Republican presidents. Mainstream centre-left parties that are perceived to be wedded to Blairism suffered the most.

Erin O'Toole somewhat understood this, and did dabble in pivoting towards blue-collar voters. But he lacks credibility in doing so, especially when the Liberals are actually delivering interventionist policy.

Canada did already raises taxes on rich, if you look at top marginal rates in 2011 vs. 2021 they have gone up quite a bit although agree likely to go up even further.  Below is combined federal + provincial

               2011         2021

BC           43.7%       53.5%
AB           39%          48%
SK           44%          47.5%
MB           46.4%      50.4%
ON          46.4%       53.5%
QC          48.2%       53.3%
NB           43.3%       53.3%
PEI           47.4%       51.4%
NS            50%        54%
NL            42.3%       51.3%
YK            42.6%        48%
NWT         43.05%      47.05%
NU            40.5%        44.5%

so I would argue Occupy Wall Street a decade ago played a big role in tax hikes on rich at both federal and provincial level.  By contrast in US, top rate was 35% in 2011, today it is 37% although Biden plans to raise it to 39.6% which is what it was under Obama's second term.

As for globally, I would say social democratic parties everywhere in Europe whether more centrist type like Italy or more left like Labour under Corbyn are taking a hit.  Only a handful have been successful like Danish Social Democrats who take a very right wing stance on immigration (they would not work in Canada) with left wing economic and Portugal although I think in Portugal like New Zealand, its more due to popularity of leader as opposed to ideological shift.  SYRIZA in Greece lost after one election and Podemos in Spain who was leading in polls about 7 years ago is now imploding and struggling to stay relevant. 

While is true British Tories are more fiscally left wing under Johnson than say under David Cameron, they still sit to right of Labour.  Canada is really on its own in terms of big shift towards left wing policies.  Part of it could be cultural as we are more urban, diverse, and educated than most so I think the woke type policies aren't causing the collateral damage to left like they are in other countries.  Certainly in Europe a lot on right focus more on cultural conservatism than economic, but many still keep economic.  Few centre-right parties in Europe are raising taxes on rich for example and few who have only did so because they were forced to by EU to meet deficit targets not out of any principle and most lowered them once back in surplus.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Another thing to note about the ONDP: I've been working on the phone for a Liberal nomination campaign recently (so take my insights with a grain of salt, most people I speak to are former or current Liberals from our calling list).

I've heard complaints about Horwath from my calls though. A lot of people find her style abrasive and uncalled for, and don't really believe that the NDP would do much better. This isn't really my opinion but a lot of these people voted NDP in 2018 and aren't impressed with Horwath now, which leaves "coming home" to the Liberals as the logical option for many of these politically minded left-leaners.

A female politician is seen as being abrasive? Where have I heard that before... You'd think those Liberals would've learned a thing or two after the treatment Wynne got. Anyway, Liberals will make any excuse possible to not vote NDP, so *shrugs shoulders*

I know, I don't think it's a fair criticism either because Horwath handles herself pretty professionally as an opposition leader. Interestingly this kind of stuff seems to come mainly from older women, but I know that being a woman doesn't bar you from having unrealistic standards for female politicians. Regardless, the fact that this seems to be a fairly common critique across several ridings is a problem for Horwath. Like it or not, a path to NDP victory in Ontario requires winning over Liberal leaners.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think the centre-left in Canada got lucky that this leftward transition took place when the Liberals were in power. Governments can do a lot more than the opposition when it comes to shifting the scope of policy discussion, and the Liberals caught onto this global leftward swing and adapted government policy and comms accordingly, leaving the opposition parties in a difficult position. Whereas a lot of other global centre-left parties (in my very basic observation, I'm not all that familiar) either failed to ditch the Third Way stuff or overshot it and moved way too far to the left.

It's the exact opposite in the UK (compared to Canada). The 2010-present Tory era started out very much on the economic right, but Johnson caught onto the trend and shifted the Tories to a more situationally appropriate style. Hell, even the GOP could have capitalized on this trend, and a more economically populist form of conservatism has grown in recent years. Unfortunately for the GOP, and luckily for the Democrats, Trump turned out to be an incompetent oaf who just couldn't help himself from being awful.

[mileslunn]

I think the centre-left in Canada got lucky that this leftward transition took place when the Liberals were in power. Governments can do a lot more than the opposition when it comes to shifting the scope of policy discussion, and the Liberals caught onto this global leftward swing and adapted government policy and comms accordingly, leaving the opposition parties in a difficult position. Whereas a lot of other global centre-left parties (in my very basic observation, I'm not all that familiar) either failed to ditch the Third Way stuff or overshot it and moved way too far to the left.

It's the exact opposite in the UK (compared to Canada). The 2010-present Tory era started out very much on the economic right, but Johnson caught onto the trend and shifted the Tories to a more situationally appropriate style. Hell, even the GOP could have capitalized on this trend, and a more economically populist form of conservatism has grown in recent years. Unfortunately for the GOP, and luckily for the Democrats, Trump turned out to be an incompetent oaf who just couldn't help himself from being awful.

Partly although in Europe even where in power, they have generally not had much staying power or struggling to stay afloat.  Right now Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Spain, and Portugal have social democratic governments and only in Denmark and Portugal are they solidly ahead in the polls.  Other three, the lead is tenuous and could lose next election.  Its true right wing parties have shifted from fiscal conservatism more to cultural conservatism, but they haven't gone full left wing on economic policy, just don't play up their right wing economic policies as much as they did a decade ago.  But still if very unpopular, opposition could attack them on it and fact they are failing to land punches suggest to me that desire for cultural conservatism is more important than economic policy there.  In Canada by contrast, both are vote losers.

[2952-0-0]

There is a market for some cultural conservatism in Canada. Most immigrants come from social environments that are deeply, deeply conservative by western standards. It's the kind that Jason "Curry in a Hurry" Kenney pandered to a decade ago. The Fords also won big. Harper destroyed Kenney's work in 2015, and Doug Ford is just a failure.

My local constituency both has Canada's highest average house price and the highest proportion of Muslims. The Liberal MP is openly gay, and he likes to say that what protects his freedom to live his lifestyle also protects Muslims' freedom to live theirs. The subtext, of course, is that cultural conservatism is wedded to xenophobia, and that damages attempts to build a multiracial conservative coalition.

[Estrella]

Somebody better put Jason Kenney on suicide watch.

Michigan orders closure of pipeline in escalating dispute with Canada

The state of Michigan has told a Canadian energy company it must shut down a controversial oil and gas pipeline by Wednesday amid growing fears that a spill would be catastrophic to the region, in a feud which threatens to strain relations between Canada and the United States.

“These oil pipelines in the Straits of Mackinac are a ticking timebomb, and their continued presence violates the public trust and poses a grave threat to Michigan’s environment and economy,” Whitmer’s office said in a statement.

Whitmer, who campaigned on shutting down the pipeline, has received support from Democratic attorneys general as well environmental campaigners and Indigenous communities on both sides of the border.

Behold Justin Trudeau, the great environmentalist (or rather his minister):

Canada asks U.S. court to prevent Michigan from shutting down Line 5 pipeline

The federal government is asking a U.S. court to stop the state of Michigan from shutting down a pipeline that supplies fuel to much of Ontario and Quebec.

Natural Resources Minister Seamus O'Regan filed court documents today opposing Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's attempt to shut down the pipeline. Whitmer has given Calgary-based Enbridge Inc. until Wednesday to shut down Line 5 — a demand the company says it has no plans to obey.

A court-ordered negotiation is underway; the two sides are scheduled to meet again May 18, several days after Whitmer's self-imposed deadline.

tl;dr with support from environmental and Indigenous activists, US shuts down a 67 years old privately operated underwater pipeline while Canada's Liberal government - along with a multinational corporation - fights tooth and nail to keep it operating.

What alternate universe is this?

[mileslunn]

I suspect Jason Kenney privately happy about this is hoping this will hurt Ontario and Quebec thus lead to Liberals losing.  I don't think he will get his wish though

[DC Al Fine]

You don't need to bridge the divide. Just let the PC-equivalent run a center right UK Tory style campaign that runs on a carbon tax and beating down SoCons for those key upper middle class urban/suburban votes while the Reform-equivalent runs with all the policies that let it dominate the Prairies and that (especially recently) provided inroads in postindustrial ex-NDP regions like Essex and Oshawa.

As it stands a single Tory leader is forced to choose between their base and growth, whereas two Tory leaders could get both. If anything being divided is a good thing, since that makes it harder for Trudeau to do his usual trick of painting the Tories as Republicans to alienate centrist suburbanites.

Also, of course Trudeau is at his peak when he's paying a huge portion of the population to stay home. The same trick worked quite a while for Bolsonaro. But the real question is what happens to his popularity when the bill comes due, either in the form of austerity and service cuts when the BoC raises rates or inflation if it doesn't. I've seen zero explanations for how we're going to handle the debt (let alone provincial debt) when real rates aren't negative.

I'm sure Trudeau will capitalize by holding an election sooner rather than later though, ideally by baiting the other parties into forcing it somehow.

The PCs and Reform/Alliance merged *because* the alternative was another decade of Liberal majorities with ~35% of the popular vote. More specifically, the PCs never recovered from the shocks of Mulroney's last years, and were a spent force. It's possible that, given another decade, the Alliance Party could have itself evolved into a big-tent centre-right party, but we'll never know.

There would certainly be room for a moderate, centre-right party. Unfortunately, the First Past The Post system makes it unviable.

That was with both parties stepping on each others toes, though. By a brief scan of the '93 results it looks like the PCs and Reform combined had enough votes to win several dozen ridings that they otherwise would have lost, particularly in BC, SK, ON and NB. Strategic primaries/dropping out (probably) wouldn't have been enough in '93 but in ['97 there were even more split ridings](http://esm.ubc.ca/CA97/results.html).

The PCs weren't what they used to be but they were hardly dead in the water considering Charest managed to get them from 2 to 20 seats.

Paul Wells covered this issue in his book Right Side Up about Stephen Harper's rise to power. The short version is that there were talks between the two parties in 2002 to work out some sort arrangement where Harper outright offered to divide up the country between the parties, but Joe Clark refused to sanction any deal that didn't have the PC's running candidates in all ridings.

By the time Clark was no longer leader, the Tories were nearly insolvent which changed the whole calculus.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

There is a market for some cultural conservatism in Canada. Most immigrants come from social environments that are deeply, deeply conservative by western standards. It's the kind that Jason "Curry in a Hurry" Kenney pandered to a decade ago. The Fords also won big. Harper destroyed Kenney's work in 2015, and Doug Ford is just a failure.

My local constituency both has Canada's highest average house price and the highest proportion of Muslims. The Liberal MP is openly gay, and he likes to say that what protects his freedom to live his lifestyle also protects Muslims' freedom to live theirs. The subtext, of course, is that cultural conservatism is wedded to xenophobia, and that damages attempts to build a multiracial conservative coalition.

Don Valley West?

But yeah the whole "culturally conservative immigrants will move Canada to the right" hypothesis doesn't seem to be panning out. Even the 2011 performance is misunderstood by many. Ipsos did a huge online exit poll for the 2011 federal election, and while it suggests that the CPC won the immigrant vote at-large and did disproportionately well with this group, recent immigrants (less than 10 years in Canada) were won by the NDP. Similarly, visible minorities also voted NDP and the Liberals also overperformed with this group, with the CPC underperforming noticeably (31% from visible minorities vs 40% generally). Muslims in particular had little interest in Harperism - they voted 46% LPC and 38% NDP, with a measly 12% for the CPC. And if social/cultural conservatism was driving immigrants to vote Tory, you'd think more than one-in-eight Muslims would vote for them.

I couldn't find the original Ipsos exit poll, the link I posted is from Vancouver Sun and only shows some highlights. If someone has the right source, please drop it here and I'll love you forever. How I wish actual exit polls were a thing in Canada.

So even when Mr. Curry in a Hurry was running around the GTA barnstorming every mosque, gurdwara, and ethnic strip mall he could find, recent/non-white immigrants still preferred the centre-left. Doesn't mean this so-con immigrant vote will never exist, but it seems like Tories just keep setting themselves up for disappointment with this narrative.

[King of Kensington]

Don Valley West contains the densely-populated, majority-Muslim (mostly Pakistani) Thorncliffe Park. Otherwise it's an upscale riding - taking in wealthy York Mills, the Bridle Path and Lawrence Park, as well as upper middle class Leaside (where Stephen Harper grew up) and parts of North Toronto.

I believe it has the highest average income of any Canadian riding.

[King of Kensington]

Prior to 1993, Don Valley West (as well as the provincial riding of York Mills) was a Tory riding par excellence - back in the days when they were more explicitly the preferred "party of the affluent."

With the liberalization of university-educated professionals and the Conservative turn against "elites" DVW has become a solid Liberal riding - even in 2011 the Conservatives barely won it, and Kathleen Wynne hung onto it in 2018 when they were reduced to just 7 seats.  Thorncliffe of course pads the Liberal margins.

[DC Al Fine]

Diane Finley has resigned her seat in the House of Commons. Leslyn Lewis was already nominated as the Tory candidate, so barring some major unforseen event, she will join Parliament in the not-too-distant future.

[mileslunn]

Diane Finley has resigned her seat in the House of Commons. Leslyn Lewis was already nominated as the Tory candidate, so barring some major unforseen event, she will join Parliament in the not-too-distant future.

Most likely but will be interesting to see how close.  I do think there is an outside chance Liberals pull off an upset, but unlikely.

[Njall]

Alberta MLA Todd Loewen has resigned as UCP Caucus Chair and issued an open letter calling on Premier Jason Kenney to resign. It would appear that the UCP caucus revolt against Kenney is gaining more momentum.

[Hatman 🍁]

There is a market for some cultural conservatism in Canada. Most immigrants come from social environments that are deeply, deeply conservative by western standards. It's the kind that Jason "Curry in a Hurry" Kenney pandered to a decade ago. The Fords also won big. Harper destroyed Kenney's work in 2015, and Doug Ford is just a failure.

My local constituency both has Canada's highest average house price and the highest proportion of Muslims. The Liberal MP is openly gay, and he likes to say that what protects his freedom to live his lifestyle also protects Muslims' freedom to live theirs. The subtext, of course, is that cultural conservatism is wedded to xenophobia, and that damages attempts to build a multiracial conservative coalition.

Agreed. It's what allowed Rob Ford to become mayor, and to a certain extent his brother to become Premier. Not to mention the Harper majority. There is still a path for Conservatives to win, and it involved winning over a large chunk of minorities and winning over blue Liberals. It might mean a strengthened NDP, but current polling suggests a strengthened NDP isn't hurting the Liberals one bit (though I suppose if they were to start polling in the mid-20s, it would).

[Estrella]

There is a market for some cultural conservatism in Canada. Most immigrants come from social environments that are deeply, deeply conservative by western standards. It's the kind that Jason "Curry in a Hurry" Kenney pandered to a decade ago. The Fords also won big. Harper destroyed Kenney's work in 2015, and Doug Ford is just a failure.

My local constituency both has Canada's highest average house price and the highest proportion of Muslims. The Liberal MP is openly gay, and he likes to say that what protects his freedom to live his lifestyle also protects Muslims' freedom to live theirs. The subtext, of course, is that cultural conservatism is wedded to xenophobia, and that damages attempts to build a multiracial conservative coalition.

Agreed. It's what allowed Rob Ford to become mayor, and to a certain extent his brother to become Premier. Not to mention the Harper majority. There is still a path for Conservatives to win, and it involved winning over a large chunk of minorities and winning over blue Liberals. It might mean a strengthened NDP, but current polling suggests a strengthened NDP isn't hurting the Liberals one bit (though I suppose if they were to start polling in the mid-20s, it would).

How much of this was a result of "imported" cultural conservatism, as opposed to standard resentment against muh downtown elites or an unpopular Liberal government?