Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[King of Kensington]

If the ONDP are down 10 points they've lost the strategic voters.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It just goes to show how strong the Liberal brand is in this province, that a party that won just 7 seats last election (and only 4 of which are running for re-election - 3 if Coteau is elected to federal Parliament), is in 4th place in fundraising (behind the Greens), arrogantly ruled the province for 15 scandal filled years before being booted from office, and and has an uncharismatic leader that none has heard of is now leading the polls.

There is no reason for a reasonable progressive voter to rally behind the Liberals in opposition. The Liberals have had their chance to govern. The NDP has been out of office for 26 years, and their incompetent Premier at the time is now a die-in-the-wool Liberal. Progressives should be supporting the NDP. 

But I guess what's also happening is the PCs are just shedding their moderate voters who normally vote Liberal (and would never vote NDP). Combined with the promiscuous progressives who have forgotten the NDP is in opposition, and have gone back to supporting them, the Liberals have begun to build up their coalition again.

That's the thing, and I know this really annoys New Democrats, but the Liberals are just perceived as the default centre-left option even when they're in a distant third in Queen's Park and their leader doesn't have a seat. The ONDP's best shot at government in Ontario since 1990 was 2018, and if they couldn't win then, their chances now look dim.

The NDP's best hope is that once people take a good look at Del Duca, they'll consider the NDP. In today's superficial and image-obsessed era, Del Duca is a poor fit. He's boring, bald, doesn't have an authoritative voice, isn't trendy or cool, and as rude as it sounds, he's kind of ugly. I know none of these things should matter, but looking the part has become more and more important for politicians, and unfortunately for Del Duca, I just can't see someone like him inspiring Ontarians en masse.

What the Ontario Liberals have done superbly well I feel is that their message these days seems very tailored to Liberals who voted for Ford in the 905, and the messenger fits the bill. An Italian blue Liberal from Vaughan who seems more naturally adept at talking about bread-and-butter issues like paid sick leave and LTC homes, rather than coming off as a "tax-and-spend Liberal" like many perceived Wynne.

Winning back the Ford Liberals is one thing, but the Liberals need to hold their coalition together, which include promiscuous progressives. They will vote for a more left leaning Liberal Party, but will they vote for a centre-right Liberal Party? Probably not. Ford Liberals are typical Liberal voters. They don't mind voting for a left leaning Liberal Party (they voted for Wynne in 2014, and Trudeau twice) they just won't vote NDP. They know the Liberals will keep their taxes down (even if it means huge budget deficits due to increased spending), and that's what matters most to those people. 

Yeah I agree, there's not much of a place for centre-right Liberals these days in Ontario. I don't think the Liberal Party as a whole would make the mistake of drifting to the right against Ford, even if Del Duca considers himself a blue Liberal. Their most pronounced criticism of the Ford government has been on paid sick leave, where they've taken a more left-wing position and I think it's struck a chord with many Ontarians.

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/erinotoole/status/1386027327465967624

https://twitter.com/MarkGerretsen/status/1385951915339616260

[Хahar 🤔]

https://twitter.com/MarkGerretsen/status/1385951915339616260

I dislike the posting of context-free tweets on this site, because I have no idea what point you're looking to make here, but criticism of the Ontario government's draconian lockdown policy seems to me to be not just warranted but necessary. It's good that it's coming from the Tory benches, since the Liberals and NDP seem unlikely to call for anything but even more lockdown.

[2952-0-0]

Conservative leader Erin O'Toole is calling for everyone to get vaccinated.

Meanwhile, one of his backbench MPs compared the (fake) lockdown to internment camps of Japanese-Canadians during WW2, and spouted the same talking points we hear from right-wing kooks.

It's another example of Erin O'Toole losing control of his party to right-wing nuts. The Liberals absoultely looooove to attack Conservatives as right-wing nuts, and these stories are making their strategists' jobs so much easier.

The Ontario Liberals and NDP didn't call for stricter lockdowns. They called for paid sick leave and proper protections for in-person workers, to prevent workplace outbreaks. Instead, Doug Ford did security theatre and gave police power to stop and question anyone, for any reason (which, if anything, increases virus transmission by creating unnecessary human contact). When the police refused to play along as his Gestapo, he sheepishly walked back. Only now is be buckling and introducing paid sick days, which he had abolished in 2019.

[DC Al Fine]

Meanwhile, one of his backbench MPs compared the (fake) lockdown to internment camps of Japanese-Canadians during WW2

When the police refused to play along as his Gestapo, he sheepishly walked back.

Ahem.

Pot, meet kettle.

[2952-0-0]

They're not inconsistent. Doug Ford's lockdown was a piece of theatre to show his power, rather than to actually restrict virus transmission. All politicians perform theatre, but this type of theatre is playing with fire.

[Estrella]

Last week there was some very, er, spirited debate on the bill to ban conversion therapy:

https://twitter.com/Justin_Ling/status/1385276056760950798

On the bright side, she represents a suburban Lower Mainland riding and won with 37.7% against 35.2% for the Liberal, so bye bye next election, hopefully.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the ONDP are down 10 points they've lost the strategic voters.

Well, I suppose you may be on to something. If promiscuous progressives were willing to vote John Tory (who at that point in his career was a failure as a politician) to stop Ford (even when they could've easily voted for Olivia Chow, who had been leading in the polls until the early summer) in the 2014 mayoral election, they won't mind voting for del Duca, I guess. We get what we deserve in this province.

[MaxQue]

If the ONDP are down 10 points they've lost the strategic voters.

Well, I suppose you may be on to something. If promiscuous progressives were willing to vote John Tory (who at that point in his career was a failure as a politician) to stop Ford (even when they could've easily voted for Olivia Chow, who had been leading in the polls until the early summer) in the 2014 mayoral election, they won't mind voting for del Duca, I guess. We get what we deserve in this province.

So does the NDP who should have dumped Horwath after the 2014 election.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

If the ONDP are down 10 points they've lost the strategic voters.

Well, I suppose you may be on to something. If promiscuous progressives were willing to vote John Tory (who at that point in his career was a failure as a politician) to stop Ford (even when they could've easily voted for Olivia Chow, who had been leading in the polls until the early summer) in the 2014 mayoral election, they won't mind voting for del Duca, I guess. We get what we deserve in this province.

So does the NDP who should have dumped Horwath after the 2014 election.

I don't know, while the NDP underperformed the polls in 2014, a lot of that was strategic voting to keep Mr. 100k job cuts out of power. The 2014 Ontario election was decent for the NDP in that they built a good base in diverse parts of the province, particularly a lot of Tory areas in the southwest that could have been won in 2018.

But Horwath changed her persona from "populist but moderate steel town slugger" to "generic left-liberal" in 2018, which never really made sense to me. It was clear that Wynne was DOA in 2018, the orange wave in urban Ontario was more or less unstoppable. Maybe the old Horwath couldn't have won "bourgeois left" seats like Toronto-St. Paul's, but there were few seats like that where the Liberals could have held on, or the PCs could have come through the middle.

I think she failed to adequately distinguish herself from Wynne other than on Hydro. But the NDP was never going to win over the 905 Wynne Wave seats, they had much more potential in the postindustrial southwest. Cambridge, the two Kitchener Tory ridings, Sarnia-Lambton, Chatham-Kent, Brantford-Brant, could all have gone NDP with a fitting campaign, as well as places like Peterborough and the Soo. Who knows if a change in strategy could have done it, but Horwath's change in persona most likely did more harm than good for the NDP.

Like even if the WWC strategy only kept the PCs from getting an overall majority, such a result would have put the NDP in a position of relative power over the Liberals. If the OLP propped up an NDP minority, it would force the legacy Liberal party to play second-fiddle, and historically when you look at other provinces, that's what tends to kill the Liberals. If they let Ford govern with a minority, it would hurt the Liberals' credibility with their own supporters who would feel betrayed that their leaders could have stopped Ford but refused. But since Ford got a majority, the NDP doesn't have these cards at their disposal, and the rudderless Liberals are bouncing back.

[MaxQue]

If the ONDP are down 10 points they've lost the strategic voters.

Well, I suppose you may be on to something. If promiscuous progressives were willing to vote John Tory (who at that point in his career was a failure as a politician) to stop Ford (even when they could've easily voted for Olivia Chow, who had been leading in the polls until the early summer) in the 2014 mayoral election, they won't mind voting for del Duca, I guess. We get what we deserve in this province.

So does the NDP who should have dumped Horwath after the 2014 election.

I don't know, while the NDP underperformed the polls in 2014, a lot of that was strategic voting to keep Mr. 100k job cuts out of power. The 2014 Ontario election was decent for the NDP in that they built a good base in diverse parts of the province, particularly a lot of Tory areas in the southwest that could have been won in 2018.

But Horwath changed her persona from "populist but moderate steel town slugger" to "generic left-liberal" in 2018, which never really made sense to me. It was clear that Wynne was DOA in 2018, the orange wave in urban Ontario was more or less unstoppable. Maybe the old Horwath couldn't have won "bourgeois left" seats like Toronto-St. Paul's, but there were few seats like that where the Liberals could have held on, or the PCs could have come through the middle.

I think she failed to adequately distinguish herself from Wynne other than on Hydro. But the NDP was never going to win over the 905 Wynne Wave seats, they had much more potential in the postindustrial southwest. Cambridge, the two Kitchener Tory ridings, Sarnia-Lambton, Chatham-Kent, Brantford-Brant, could all have gone NDP with a fitting campaign, as well as places like Peterborough and the Soo. Who knows if a change in strategy could have done it, but Horwath's change in persona most likely did more harm than good for the NDP.

Like even if the WWC strategy only kept the PCs from getting an overall majority, such a result would have put the NDP in a position of relative power over the Liberals. If the OLP propped up an NDP minority, it would force the legacy Liberal party to play second-fiddle, and historically when you look at other provinces, that's what tends to kill the Liberals. If they let Ford govern with a minority, it would hurt the Liberals' credibility with their own supporters who would feel betrayed that their leaders could have stopped Ford but refused. But since Ford got a majority, the NDP doesn't have these cards at their disposal, and the rudderless Liberals are bouncing back.

That decision to change her persona shows she lacks the political skills to be a efficient leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP "failure" in 2014 was blamed on running too much of a populist campaign at the expense of urban progressives. So, Horwath tacked left to get those voters back, but it ended up hurting them in those WWC ridings. Problem is, was she ever going to do well with the WWC against a populist hero like Ford? Maybe, maybe not. The truth is, earlier in the campaign the NDP looked like it was going to do well in more WWC Tory-held ridings, but certain candidates said certain things, and the Tories used this as ammunition to not only keep their populist base, but expand on it.

Anyway, the NDP strategy of trying to bridge the progressive woke left and the populist WWC is a difficult one at best, but probably the only winning strategy for the party. The only other option is cannibalizing the suburban Liberal vote, but that kind of campaign would alienate the base too much.

My advice for the NDP would be the same as the federal Tories, focus on economic issues (except instead of "tax cuts" for the middle class, talk about helping out working families). Throw bones to the progressive left, but don't go too woke. March in the pride parades of course, but stop putting your pronouns on elections signs!

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Not sure if I agree more with MaxQue or EarlAW, which I guess goes to show the complexities of the NDP's struggles. It's a party that has to swim against the tide of decades of being a second-tier party (electorally) so even the most favourable circumstances for them are still difficult.

[King of Kensington]

Layton strategist Brad Lavigne reflects on the 10 year anniversary of the orange wave.  Can't say it's a very profound analysis: the NDP "decided" it "wanted to win" and then...it almost did?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-ten-years-after-his-orange-wave-the-ndp-must-recommit-to-jack-laytons/

[cp]

Layton strategist Brad Lavigne reflects on the 10 year anniversary of the orange wave.  Can't say it's a very profound analysis: the NDP "decided" it "wanted to win" and then...it almost did?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-ten-years-after-his-orange-wave-the-ndp-must-recommit-to-jack-laytons/

'wanting to win' and variants like it has got to be the most meretricious non-analysis in political commentary today. I see it all the time in the UK and US when centrists criticize more radical co-belligerents in their parties. I guess it's no surprise the NDP isn't immune to it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Only a handful of self-declared "legacy parties" genuinely don't want to win elections.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Layton strategist Brad Lavigne reflects on the 10 year anniversary of the orange wave.  Can't say it's a very profound analysis: the NDP "decided" it "wanted to win" and then...it almost did?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-ten-years-after-his-orange-wave-the-ndp-must-recommit-to-jack-laytons/

The NDP needs to get over 2011 and try to chart a new path. The Orange Wave ain't gonna happen again, it required near-perfect circumstances to happen in 2011 and even then, it was mostly confined to Quebec.

[King of Kensington]

2011 was very much a fluke, not some genius plan cooked up by Lavigne.

[Hatman 🍁]

2011 was flukey, but it *can* happen again, the same way it did in Ontario in 1990 and 2018. But the stars have to align perfectly. The on commonality of all three elections was it came with a leader who had a number of elections under their belt. So, don't expect the NDP to do well with a new leader until they're a household name.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

2011 was very much a fluke, not some genius plan cooked up by Lavigne.

Successful former strategists tend to bask in their own glory a little too much and for far too long.

[mileslunn]

Not a lot of polls in Ontario, but pretty sure Ford is no longer in majority territory.  Although ironically while Innovative and Abacus had bad numbers, PCs didn't really drop much, more opposition coalesced behind Liberals while Ford approval matched PC vote whereas before was generally much higher.  Still at this point, I think while a minority of some type most likely next year, all three parties have a path to win.

PCs:  In bad shape recently, but benefit from weak opposition and have a strong enough base so strong recovery could allow them to rebound.  Not to mid 40s like last year, but 38-40%.  BoJo took similar hit to Ford before Christmas but now with vaccine rollout has regained 10 point lead.  Not saying will happen or likely but not impossible.

Liberals: They are the default party when people are unsure so if people want to get rid of Ford but don't want to rock the boat, that bodes well for them.  Real problem is Del Duca is a real anchor on party.  Dion led many polls in 2007, but his personal numbers were horrible and once campaign started caught up.  At same time he is not well known so can improve his image.

NDP: May not do well in polls, but if public wants Ford defeated and they don't warm up to Del Duca, I think they have an opening.  Lets remember in 2018, almost every poll pre-election showed similarly bad numbers.  Yes some Liberals will go PC before NDP thus the challenge, but still if people want change and this time PCs are incumbent not challenger, unusual things can happen.

That being said I believe Kenney is in even bigger trouble than Ford.  Both face an uphill battle to get re-elected, but I would argue Kenney faces an even steeper hill to climb than Ford does.  At same time, with most UCP supporters being angry at Kenney, I think party dumps him before election.  Right wing base angry at restrictions, while moderates felt too slow so by taking middle ground just angered both sides.

Of Conservative premiers, Kenney, Ford and Pallister in trouble but still can recover but won't be easy.  Moe probably okay as Saskatchewan seems to be replacing Alberta as the new province where conservatives always win.  Legault very popular so as long as no major screw ups he should win and faces weak opposition.  Higgs and King look good now but still over 2 and 3 years away so things can change so not as safe as Legault who election next year, but much better odds than Ford, Kenney & Pallister. 

[CumbrianLefty]

If we're being honest, wasn't the 2011 result also a lot to do with Ignatieff's inadequacy?

[beesley]

Of Conservative premiers, Kenney, Ford and Pallister in trouble but still can recover but won't be easy.  Moe probably okay as Saskatchewan seems to be replacing Alberta as the new province where conservatives always win.  Legault very popular so as long as no major screw ups he should win and faces weak opposition.  Higgs and King look good now but still over 2 and 3 years away so things can change so not as safe as Legault who election next year, but much better odds than Ford, Kenney & Pallister. 

I presume you expect Rankin also to be easily re-elected this (next?) year?

[mileslunn]

Of Conservative premiers, Kenney, Ford and Pallister in trouble but still can recover but won't be easy.  Moe probably okay as Saskatchewan seems to be replacing Alberta as the new province where conservatives always win.  Legault very popular so as long as no major screw ups he should win and faces weak opposition.  Higgs and King look good now but still over 2 and 3 years away so things can change so not as safe as Legault who election next year, but much better odds than Ford, Kenney & Pallister. 

I presume you expect Rankin also to be easily re-elected this (next?) year?

He is a Liberal not Conservative, but yes unless third wave of COVID-19 spirals out of control, I think he gets re-elected.  But if third wave goes badly and he bungles that, things can change quickly.  Ford 2 months ago had a double digit lead in polls and looked unbeatable so things can change quickly.