Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[King of Kensington]

Yikes

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-delegates-reject-climate-change-is-real-1.5957739

[Estrella]

This is also interesting:

Delegates also rejected a modification to the policy book that would have changed the party's stance on medical assistance in dying — swapping the statement that the party would not support any legislation that would "legalize euthanasia or assisted suicide" for one that says it would oppose "the extension of euthanasia and assisted suicide" to minors and people living with "psychological suffering."

By a 55-45 vote, delegates voted to keep the status quo.

That's a surprisingly narrow margin.

[mileslunn]

What's going on in Alberta? If the high ALP vote is low information voters that are pro-Trudeau, it seems like those could be potential NDP voters. I'd imagine they're probably primarily urban voters. But is the unpopularity of the UCP a result of hubris, a right-wing party acting as if they can do anything and absolutely no wrong because they don't think they can lose in a right-wing province?

According to the latest Leger poll (PDF), the NDP is up 51-30 over the UCP. I don't recall the general sentiment after Notley's NDP losing power in 2019, but I was always happy that she was able to retain her leadership of the party. She didn't lose because she did anything wrong. It seems more like Albertans just wanted to pull things back to the right a bit, but still keep a strong opposition party. It seems to me like the NDP has an extraordinary opportunity to build itself into a strong centre-left party that Albertans find as an acceptable governing party in an effective two-party system. The era of the governing dynasty may be over in Alberta. It would be even more interesting if Alberta was entering a new phase of one-term governments and a sense of equilibrium. The NDP pulls too much to the left and is voted out and the UCP pulls too much to the right and is voted out and so on/vice versa.

Those 'low information' voters may not even vote come election time. Who knows. BC Conservative provincial poll numbers don't always translate into Liberal support. Same idea.

There is an absolute hubris with Kenney. He thinks it's impossible for the NDP to win with a united right. The man is a true believer, and Alberta is hurting as a result.

I know other parties love to kick out their leaders after a bad election result. But Notley is the Queen of the Alberta NDP. Sure she lost, but not much she could've done about a united right+the loss of the anti-Prentice protest vote. It's not like there is anyone who could replace her and do a better job. Albertans love her, they're just not social democrats.

If the UCP continues to be a far right whackadoodle party, and the NDP keeps Notley in charge, then yea, the province will reach equilibrium. I'm not so sure that will happen.

Right now Notley would win and I would not be shocked if she beats even a united right.  Edmonton is solidly NDP while Calgary votes progressive municipally and while more conservative than most cities, its more PC than it is Wildrose.  Only caveat is undecided voters seem to be heavily former UCP voters and it appears most UCP voters ditching party going elsewhere or undecided column not NDP.  UCP has lost about 30% of its voters from 2019, but only around 5% have migrated over to NDP.  By contrast NDP has close to 95% retention.

I think for NDP in Alberta, turnout will be key as their support skews heavily towards younger voters so do they show up or not.  It will also be convincing unhappy UCP voters to cross over or hope they just stay home and don't vote at all as always possibility dissatisfied UCP types when push comes to shove return to UCP.

Finally there is voter efficiency.  NDP really running up margins in Edmonton so lots of wasted votes there, but it appears UCP while ahead in Rural Alberta, isn't having blowouts like in past as a counter.   Still if I had to make a bet right now, mine is Notley narrowly knocks off Kenney in a fairly close race by sweeping Edmonton, winning 2/3 of Calgary seats and picking up a few elsewhere like Lesser Slave Lake, Sherwood Park, Lethbridge East, Banff-Kananaskis. 

Thing that should terrify progressives most is WIP only runs in safe rural ridings so UCP loses popular vote but it is a minority government.  In that case WIP will probably back UCP on certain conditions and those conditions will not please progressives.  But also if this looks possible, Notley can create argument if you are for Alberta remaining in Canada, NDP is only pro-Canada party and that might work as most Albertans are proud to be Canadians and aren't interested in separation or more autonomy.  They may dislike Trudeau, but also understand governments come and go too.

[King of Kensington]

Actually don't buy O'Toole had any "bold" or substantive climate change policy at all.  Support pipelines, oppose the carbon tax but "I believe climate change is real."

Basically a position that pleases few.

[mileslunn]

Actually don't buy O'Toole had any "bold" or substantive climate change policy at all.  Support pipelines, oppose the carbon tax but "I believe climate change is real."

Basically a position that pleases few.

He could in theory bring in a cap and trade like Quebec has and Ontario had under Wynne as he never promised not to bring in that and while not as effective as a carbon tax never mind more big government vs. market oriented, that is one possibility.  If he promises that, then he will have credibility or perhaps an industry carbon tax but not on personal level.  But anything short of those two and promise will be empty and look bad.

[King of Kensington]

How large is the climate denialist constituency in the Prairies?

Notice the Angus Reid has "another party" at 10-11% in Alberta and Sask.

[mileslunn]

How large is the climate denialist constituency in the Prairies?

Notice the Angus Reid has "another party" at 10-11% in Alberta and Sask.

Actually even there a minority, just very vocal.  Prairies may be more conservative than rest of Canada, but not nearly as right wing as stereotype.  Notley is very critical of Tories federally yet fairly popular in Alberta, way more so than O'Toole or Kenney.  Many who claim most in Prairies support this are stuck in past and don't realize Alberta is very different today than 90s.  Province actually isn't that conservative, just not as progressive as other provinces.

[King of Kensington]

2/3 of Alberta's population lives in Calgary and Edmonton.  Saskatchewan is more rural - 40% in Regina and Saskatoon.  Calgary is the anchor keeping Alberta a bit to the right of Sask.  Rural Alberta and Sask. basically the same now.

Calgary is the most conservative major city, while Edmonton, Regina and Saskatoon about the same politically.  As Calgary liberalizes more (which seems underway) and right holds dominance of rural areas, Saskatchewan will displace Alberta as most conservative.

[King of Kensington]

I can't see a Calgary revolt against the Eastern Conservative establishment for being "too liberal" like in the 90s.  Maybe in rural Alberta and Sask. - but even there most likely to stay Conservative even if somewhat begrudgingly. 

[mileslunn]

I can't see a Calgary revolt against the Eastern Conservative establishment for being "too liberal" like in the 90s.  Maybe in rural Alberta and Sask. - but even there most likely to stay Conservative even if somewhat begrudgingly. 

I would argue median Calgary voter is actually closest to old PCs, not UCP, Wildrose or Reform wing of Tories.  Now for a large urban area, that is still to right of everywhere else as in most urban areas, median voter ranges from Chretien/Martin Liberals to NDP type socialist depending on which city.  Some on right who haven't adjusted with times still think Reform ideas popular in Calgary but forget much of the city either wasn't born there, not old enough to vote or didn't live in Alberta. 

As for rural areas, I doubt they revolt, but even if they did, Tories win by such large margins no risk of Liberals or NDP coming up the middle whereas in Edmonton, Calgary, Regina & Saskatoon, a split on right probably would cost Tories seats there.  At same time perhaps like Buffalo Party in SK or BC Conservatives, the right wing breakaway would get in low single digits so little impact and only get in double digits in rural areas.

[King of Kensington]

Yes modern-day Calgarians are more Lisa Raitt-type conservatives than Preston Manning-type conservatives.

[RogueBeaver]

Freeland announced she'll deliver the budget April 19.

[King of Kensington]

Min Sook Lee, a well regarded activist and cultural figure in Toronto, has made the seemingly abrupt decision not to run again for the NDP in Toronto-Danforth:

https://twitter.com/minsooklee/status/1374758550824714244

[King of Kensington]

Supreme Court rules carbon tax is constitutional:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-federal-carbon-tax-constitutional-case-1.5962687

O'Toole vows to fight carbon tax and have a credible climate change plan:

https://twitter.com/erinotoole/status/1375146220746907648

[DabbingSanta]

Toronto has a record number of COVID cases, including overwhelmed ICUs, despite being in lockdown for over four months.  The measures in place simply do not work.  End the lockdown!

[mileslunn]

Toronto has a record number of COVID cases, including overwhelmed ICUs, despite being in lockdown for over four months.  The measures in place simply do not work.  End the lockdown!

Actually quite the opposite.  Reason for problems is lockdowns only half hearted.  Re-opening like Florida would be political suicide.  Canadians unlike Americans tend to have a much higher deference to authority and generally put common good over individual freedom.  Rugged individualism and freedom trumps everything else is a very American idea and Canada has for most of its history generally been a mix of Red Toryism (similar to One Nation conservatism in UK) and social Liberalism and social democracy.  Libertarianism has always existed, especially in Alberta, but also very much a minority opinion and much less popular than 20 years ago, although even then still a minority opinion.

[King of Kensington]

National Post pleads for unity:

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/np-view-conservatives-must-unite-behind-erin-otoole-if-they-are-to-defeat-trudeau

[StateBoiler]

https://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/glavin-canadas-actions-toward-china-grow-more-and-more-humiliating?fbclid=IwAR0xaPZm-3LvFV4bwrw4b9nOreDd2WOUtAtDbUz5OazOhUbUGjYKD1V8_jI

[mileslunn]

National Post pleads for unity:

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/np-view-conservatives-must-unite-behind-erin-otoole-if-they-are-to-defeat-trudeau

Its been a decade since Tories federally last won an election and it seems since then base has become more right wing while median voter more left wing so I believe the gap between two has become so large its not possible to appeal to both.  O'Toole is sort of all over map as trying to appeal to both but finding not appealing to either.  When Harper was leader, appealing to both was tough, but a skilled leader could do it.  Harper did it by staying close to centre on big issues but going right on peripheral ones to fire up base and hope public wouldn't care.  That worked then, but today median voter is now on left not dead centre while base has gone from right to even further right.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

National Post pleads for unity:

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/np-view-conservatives-must-unite-behind-erin-otoole-if-they-are-to-defeat-trudeau

Its been a decade since Tories federally last won an election and it seems since then base has become more right wing while median voter more left wing so I believe the gap between two has become so large its not possible to appeal to both.  O'Toole is sort of all over map as trying to appeal to both but finding not appealing to either.  When Harper was leader, appealing to both was tough, but a skilled leader could do it.  Harper did it by staying close to centre on big issues but going right on peripheral ones to fire up base and hope public wouldn't care.  That worked then, but today median voter is now on left not dead centre while base has gone from right to even further right.

Expanding on what you said, Harper also benefited from an utterly dysfunctional and balkanized Liberal Party, while today's Liberal Party is a well-oiled machine with remarkable internal unity. People still doubt Trudeau's leadership chops, but the man has been able to run a tight ship without having to muzzle his caucus nearly to the extent that Harper did. All things considered, the Liberals look like the governing party, and that goes a long way in convincing LPC-CPC swing voters.

The CPC simply has nowhere to go, and so the right wing of the party is gaining relative influence. Perhaps things would be different without the pandemic, but as of right now, the Liberals have all the ingredients they need: their policies remain around the median of Canadian public opinion, government approval is strong, there is no infighting whatsoever, and scandals haven't gotten the better of them (yet). The CPC is therefore cornered into being the party of ideological conservatives, and Canada's just not the sort of country you can win with ideology alone.

[mileslunn]

National Post pleads for unity:

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/np-view-conservatives-must-unite-behind-erin-otoole-if-they-are-to-defeat-trudeau

Its been a decade since Tories federally last won an election and it seems since then base has become more right wing while median voter more left wing so I believe the gap between two has become so large its not possible to appeal to both.  O'Toole is sort of all over map as trying to appeal to both but finding not appealing to either.  When Harper was leader, appealing to both was tough, but a skilled leader could do it.  Harper did it by staying close to centre on big issues but going right on peripheral ones to fire up base and hope public wouldn't care.  That worked then, but today median voter is now on left not dead centre while base has gone from right to even further right.

Expanding on what you said, Harper also benefited from an utterly dysfunctional and balkanized Liberal Party, while today's Liberal Party is a well-oiled machine with remarkable internal unity. People still doubt Trudeau's leadership chops, but the man has been able to run a tight ship without having to muzzle his caucus nearly to the extent that Harper did. All things considered, the Liberals look like the governing party, and that goes a long way in convincing LPC-CPC swing voters.

The CPC simply has nowhere to go, and so the right wing of the party is gaining relative influence. Perhaps things would be different without the pandemic, but as of right now, the Liberals have all the ingredients they need: their policies remain around the median of Canadian public opinion, government approval is strong, there is no infighting whatsoever, and scandals haven't gotten the better of them (yet). The CPC is therefore cornered into being the party of ideological conservatives, and Canada's just not the sort of country you can win with ideology alone.

Agreed, I see Conservatives in long term decline and while I don't want to say never, I don't see Tories forming government anytime soon.  I also think pandemic may be pushing a big shift left and Liberals have moved left with public while Tories are not and probably cannot without another split.

[Estrella]

Stumbled upon this great Reddit thread with detailed answers about politics of Saskatchewan during the era of CCF/NDP dominance and what led to its end.

The whole thing is worth a read, but this is the most interesting part, written by the amazingly named /u/tuttifruttidurutti (who?)

When the Cooperative Commonwealth Federation became the New Party (later the NDP) in 1960, this process represented an affiliation of the CCF with the Canadian Labour Congress (which had itself formed recently out of the merger of the two earlier labour federations, the Trades and Labour Congress and the CIO-inspired Canadian Congress of Labour.)

The technical details are a bit dry (the New Party affiliated with the national CLC, and set up a protocol for CLC locals to affiliate, which few did.) But the relevant thing to this question is that the CCF had a significant base of supportive in the cooperative movements on the prairies. For reasons that are partially obscure to history, the co-op movement parted ways with the CCF over its decision to affiliate with the Canadian Labour Congress.

The CCF was always quite self conscious about being a movement as well as a party. It was an important part of their self conception. The party had a social basis in organizations external to it, and a clear political program that it was willing to lose elections rather than compromise. The New Party initiative was explicitly aimed at adding 'urban liberals' to their potential voter base. This is usually characterized as being partly because the USSR's example had 'discredited' central planning, the CCF's previous proposal, as well as heightening cold war tensions making socialism unpalatable.

All of this is just to say that on the one hand, the creation of the New Party caused a parting of ways between the co-op movement, previously a major source of support for the CCF, and the new NDP. And on the other hand, the rising tensions of the cold war made socialism less popular in general.

Also, as an aside, the NDP was never able to get the kind of mobilization from its new labour partners that it had hoped for. It mostly got money, in the form of donations from the national CLC, primarily. Federal campaign finance reform made such donations illegal in 2007, further weakening the ties between the two groups. In any case, union density was never particularly high in western Canada, and it's been falling for decades nationally, especially in the private sector.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Recent Abacus Data poll with a sample of 2000

LPC: 38
CPC: 30
NDP: 17
BQ: 7
GPC: 6

Using 338Canada's simulator, it gives us a seat breakdown of:
LPC: 189 (+32)
CPC: 99 (-22)
NDP: 24 (-)
BQ: 23 (-9)
GPC: 2 (-1)

Liberals are decisively ahead everywhere except the West (behind in the prairies, three-way statistical tie in BC). Brutal 28% for the CPC in Ontario.

[cp]

National Post pleads for unity:

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/np-view-conservatives-must-unite-behind-erin-otoole-if-they-are-to-defeat-trudeau

Its been a decade since Tories federally last won an election and it seems since then base has become more right wing while median voter more left wing so I believe the gap between two has become so large its not possible to appeal to both.  O'Toole is sort of all over map as trying to appeal to both but finding not appealing to either.  When Harper was leader, appealing to both was tough, but a skilled leader could do it.  Harper did it by staying close to centre on big issues but going right on peripheral ones to fire up base and hope public wouldn't care.  That worked then, but today median voter is now on left not dead centre while base has gone from right to even further right.

Expanding on what you said, Harper also benefited from an utterly dysfunctional and balkanized Liberal Party, while today's Liberal Party is a well-oiled machine with remarkable internal unity. People still doubt Trudeau's leadership chops, but the man has been able to run a tight ship without having to muzzle his caucus nearly to the extent that Harper did. All things considered, the Liberals look like the governing party, and that goes a long way in convincing LPC-CPC swing voters.

The CPC simply has nowhere to go, and so the right wing of the party is gaining relative influence. Perhaps things would be different without the pandemic, but as of right now, the Liberals have all the ingredients they need: their policies remain around the median of Canadian public opinion, government approval is strong, there is no infighting whatsoever, and scandals haven't gotten the better of them (yet). The CPC is therefore cornered into being the party of ideological conservatives, and Canada's just not the sort of country you can win with ideology alone.

Agreed, I see Conservatives in long term decline and while I don't want to say never, I don't see Tories forming government anytime soon.  I also think pandemic may be pushing a big shift left and Liberals have moved left with public while Tories are not and probably cannot without another split.

I'm loathe to do this, as I think it's usually just naive two-pint praxis, but it's remarkable how the Canadian Tories' and UK Labour's problems mirror each other right now:

- A decade out of power
- Split between an ideologically inspired grassroots and a compromise-for-power-at-all-costs elite which sneers at said grassroots with palpable contempt
- Facing an electorate that's moving decisively away from both factions' preferred policy programmes
- Ostracized/pathologized/condescended to by mainstream news/entertainment outlets
- Led by a milquetoast in pragmatists' clothing
- Opposed by a governing party/leader that is inexplicably resilient and/or tolerated

I'm not much more optimistic about Labour's chances than mileslunn is about the Canadian Tories'.

[CumbrianLefty]

A lot of commonalities sure, but one respect in which UK Labour is better off is that a lot of its policy programme is in itself quite popular (which is why our Tories have continually cherry picked ideas from it, especially since 2016) It doesn't look like the Canadian Tories have even that straw right now.

(and another recent poll showed them doing worse, and the NDP better, than the one cited above)