Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[King of Kensington]

Alberta (Leger):

NDP  40%
UCP  20%
Other  13%
Undecided  27%

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1370489228887527432?s=20

[mileslunn]

Alberta (Leger):

NDP  40%
UCP  20%
Other  13%
Undecided  27%

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1370489228887527432?s=20

Angus-Reid showed a bit closer, but Kenney most certainly could lose next election and almost certainly would if an election were held today.  Edmonton will go massively NDP, NDP is slightly ahead in Calgary while UCP ahead in Rural Alberta.  Angus-Reid at least shows big age gap so millennial turnout key.  They show up, I believe Kenney loses.  They don't, he wins.  Nonetheless I believe Alberta is seeing a generational shift and by 2040 it will be a centre-left province with parties on left winning more often than parties on right as boomers die off.

[King of Kensington]

Saskatchewan will likely displace Alberta as the most conservative province. 

[King of Kensington]

Calgary is still the most small-"c" conservative city of the Prairies which keeps Alberta a bit to the right of Saskatchewan. 

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

UCP struggling in Alberta is in part an example of overpromising and underdelivering. Kenney and his right-wing forces spent four years blaming all of Alberta's woes on the NDP, knowing fully well that global market prices and Alberta's fiscal vulnerabilities are well beyond any single government's control. Alberta was already recovering albeit slowly by the end of Notley's mandate, but Kenney came in promising to fix all the problems he blamed on the NDP. Well not only have things gotten worse for Alberta, Kenney's actions during this time - mishandling of COVID, screwing over the rural municipalities that so passionately backed the UCP, and using a divisive and overly-partisan philosophy to governing - have not helped.

I really, really hope Albertans don't forget how Kenney acted during the pandemic by spring 2023. I've lived in Alberta before, they're good people, they deserve better than Kenney.

[CumbrianLefty]

Having voted for the NDP before, it might now be easier to do it again.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, Kenney seems to be following the "Kansas experiment" model - and Alberta is much less conservative than Kansas.

[Estrella]

Inspired by/crossposted from another thread: I decided to go hunting for the most Conservative poll at the last federal election. Here are some good guesses, in no particular order.

Nota bene that from cursory googling, it seems that most, albeit not all of these are Mennonite settlements. Of course, these days it only means that they vote 90% Tory instead of 80%, but it's interesting that you can still see it.

Cypress Hills—Grasslands, poll #118 (Rural Municipality of Reno No. 51): Conservative 209, others 14.

Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner, poll #185 (County of Forty Mile No. 8​): Conservative 116, others 6.

Brandon—Souris, poll #138 (Lena): Conservative 100, others 14.

Battle River—Crowfoot, poll #149 (Provost): Conservative 174, 1 PPC.

Peace River—Westlock, poll #14 (La Crête): Conservative 129, 3 Greens, 1 PPC.

Grande Prairie—Mackenzie, poll #88 (Crooked Creek): Conservative 108, others 6.

Battlefords—Lloydminster, poll #2 (Frenchman Butte)†: Conservative 172, others 6.

Souris—Moose Mountain, poll #149 (Carievale): Conservative 201, others 10.

Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies, poll #14 (Prespatou): Conservative 218, 3 PPC, 2 Greens, 1 Liberals.

Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, poll #17 (Okno): Conservative 77, others 3.

I believe that BR-C #149 is the winner here, unless there is another poll with only 1 non-Tory vote, but more votes cast. I remember reading somewhere that polls that go 100% for one candidate are merged with a neighbouring one to protect vote secrecy, so I don't think there are any of those in official data.

† Just a couple kilometres away is poll #1 (Onion Lake/Seekaskootch Indian Reserve 119), which went 70% NDP, 20% Liberal. Fittingly enough, it was here that an important battle of the North-West Rebellion took place.

[Estrella]

Inspired by/crossposted from another thread: I decided to go hunting for the most Conservative poll at the last federal election. Here are some good guesses, in no particular order.

Nota bene that from cursory googling, it seems that most, albeit not all of these are Mennonite settlements. Of course, these days it only means that they vote 90% Tory instead of 80%, but it's interesting that you can still see it.
...
I believe that BR-C #149 is the winner here, unless there is another poll with only 1 non-Tory vote, but less votes cast. I remember reading somewhere that polls that go 100% for one candidate are merged with a neighbouring one to protect vote secrecy, so I don't think there are any of those in official data.

Because I have too much time, I decided to take a look at this. Provost has a Mennonite history, but this particular poll doesn't cover the town itself, but a large swath of area along Highway 18 between town limits and Hansman Lake. The few houses that can be seen from the road look quite... German, so I guess it's Mennonites again, except this time they're on isolated homesteads rather than a settlement. It's basically every sociological and geographical factor that would make someone vote Conservative turned up to 11.

[King of Kensington]

Large Angus Reid poll (4600 respondents):

British Columbia

Liberals  33%
Conservatives  31%
NDP  24%
Greens  7%
Other party  5%

Alberta

Conservatives  53%
Liberals  19%
NDP  16%
Greens  1%
Other party  11%

Saskatchewan

Conservatives  56%
Liberals  17%
NDP  15%
Greens  2%
Other party  10%

Manitoba

Conservatives  43%
Liberals  26%
NDP  23%
Greens  4%
Other party  4%

Ontario

Liberals  38%
Conservatives  32%
NDP  22%
Greens  4%
Other party  3%

Quebec

Liberals  37%
Bloc Quebecois  27%
Conservatives  17%
NDP  13%
Other party  3%

New Brunswick

Liberals  39%
Conservatives  28%
NDP  14%
Greens  10%
Other party  8%

Nova Scotia

Liberals  44%
Conservatives  27%
NDP  20%
Greens  6%
Other party  4%

Newfoundland

Liberals  50%
Conservatives  29%
NDP  20%
Greens  1%
Other party  --

https://angusreid.org/federal-politics-conservative-leadership/

[King of Kensington]

GTA

Liberals  43%
Conservatives  28%
NDP  21%

Greater Montreal

Liberals  47%
Bloc Quebecois  20%
NDP  16%
Conservatives  10%

Metro Vancouver

Liberals  40%
Conservatives  25%
NDP  25%

Calgary

Conservatives  51%
Liberals  23%
NDP  18%

Edmonton

Conservatives  46%
NDP  22%
Liberals  21%

[Hatman 🍁]

Ahh yes, the infamous poll with subsamples for Regina, Saskatoon and Halifax, but nothing for the country's capital which has more people than all three cities combined.

[beesley]

Ahh yes, the infamous poll with subsamples for Regina, Saskatoon and Halifax, but nothing for the country's capital which has more people than all three cities combined.

I'm not a big analyser of polls, but what would bother me more is the treatment of the GTA as a single subsample. Toronto itself and all the other regions of the GTA are much more unique than that would suggest.

[SnowLabrador]

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/new-brunswick-public-health-investigating-cluster-of-unknown-neurological-disease-1.5352204

Not sure if this fits here, but there's a novel disease outbreak in New Brunswick. This could be a pandemic incoming.

[King of Kensington]

I'm not a big analyser of polls, but what would bother me more is the treatment of the GTA as a single subsample. Toronto itself and all the other regions of the GTA are much more unique than that would suggest.

Yes and the GTA has about half the population of Ontario and a larger population than all but two provinces.

[beesley]

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/new-brunswick-public-health-investigating-cluster-of-unknown-neurological-disease-1.5352204

Not sure if this fits here, but there's a novel disease outbreak in New Brunswick. This could be a pandemic incoming.

Strange. It's not transmissible through airborne or blood contact, thankfully.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, don't know Ottawa was excluded.  Does the Capital Region covering both Ontario and Quebec "complicate" things? Could just do Ontario side which has a larger population than Winnipeg if that's a problem.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1372664167434481677?s=19

I've noticed the Alberta Liberals polling better than usual. I know they have more history than the BC Conservatives but would I be at all correct in thinking that good polling for them is akin to Federal Conservative voters choosing the BC Conservatives in polls?

[Hatman 🍁]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1372664167434481677?s=19

I've noticed the Alberta Liberals polling better than usual. I know they have more history than the BC Conservatives but would I be at all correct in thinking that good polling for them is akin to Federal Conservative voters choosing the BC Conservatives in polls?

Some of it is low-information voters who love Trudeau or something, yes. No reason for them to be polling ahead of the Alberta Party (except for the fact the latter is rather irrelevant now).

Anyway, the best thing about that poll is that Singh (+2 approval!) is more popular than O'Toole, and Trudeau is more popular than Kenney. lol

[Estrella]

IMO the points system is a good thing for the party to prevent the crazies from taking over (based on popular vote, the final round of last leadership election would've been O'Toole vs Lewis, ugh), but a system where a riding with 50 votes has the same weight as one with 1,500 had to be changed.

https://mobile.twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1372946774835494920

[Hatman 🍁]

All of these rules are completely arbitrary and therefore dumb. Unless you can devise a convoluted point system that will always choose a leader who is most likely to win the next election, you might as well go one member, one vote.

[politicallefty]

What's going on in Alberta? If the high ALP vote is low information voters that are pro-Trudeau, it seems like those could be potential NDP voters. I'd imagine they're probably primarily urban voters. But is the unpopularity of the UCP a result of hubris, a right-wing party acting as if they can do anything and absolutely no wrong because they don't think they can lose in a right-wing province?

According to the latest Leger poll (PDF), the NDP is up 51-30 over the UCP. I don't recall the general sentiment after Notley's NDP losing power in 2019, but I was always happy that she was able to retain her leadership of the party. She didn't lose because she did anything wrong. It seems more like Albertans just wanted to pull things back to the right a bit, but still keep a strong opposition party. It seems to me like the NDP has an extraordinary opportunity to build itself into a strong centre-left party that Albertans find as an acceptable governing party in an effective two-party system. The era of the governing dynasty may be over in Alberta. It would be even more interesting if Alberta was entering a new phase of one-term governments and a sense of equilibrium. The NDP pulls too much to the left and is voted out and the UCP pulls too much to the right and is voted out and so on/vice versa.

[CumbrianLefty]

All of these rules are completely arbitrary and therefore dumb. Unless you can devise a convoluted point system that will always choose a leader who is most likely to win the next election, you might as well go one member, one vote.

TIL that the Canadian Tories *don't* use that to elect their leader. Which slightly amazes me tbh.

[Hatman 🍁]

All of these rules are completely arbitrary and therefore dumb. Unless you can devise a convoluted point system that will always choose a leader who is most likely to win the next election, you might as well go one member, one vote.

TIL that the Canadian Tories *don't* use that to elect their leader. Which slightly amazes me tbh.

This ridiculous system is used by the provincial Tories here in Ontario too, and is why Doug Ford is now Premier (he lost the popular vote in the PC leadership race). The BC Liberals (basically conservatives) also use this system.

[Hatman 🍁]

What's going on in Alberta? If the high ALP vote is low information voters that are pro-Trudeau, it seems like those could be potential NDP voters. I'd imagine they're probably primarily urban voters. But is the unpopularity of the UCP a result of hubris, a right-wing party acting as if they can do anything and absolutely no wrong because they don't think they can lose in a right-wing province?

According to the latest Leger poll (PDF), the NDP is up 51-30 over the UCP. I don't recall the general sentiment after Notley's NDP losing power in 2019, but I was always happy that she was able to retain her leadership of the party. She didn't lose because she did anything wrong. It seems more like Albertans just wanted to pull things back to the right a bit, but still keep a strong opposition party. It seems to me like the NDP has an extraordinary opportunity to build itself into a strong centre-left party that Albertans find as an acceptable governing party in an effective two-party system. The era of the governing dynasty may be over in Alberta. It would be even more interesting if Alberta was entering a new phase of one-term governments and a sense of equilibrium. The NDP pulls too much to the left and is voted out and the UCP pulls too much to the right and is voted out and so on/vice versa.

Those 'low information' voters may not even vote come election time. Who knows. BC Conservative provincial poll numbers don't always translate into Liberal support. Same idea.

There is an absolute hubris with Kenney. He thinks it's impossible for the NDP to win with a united right. The man is a true believer, and Alberta is hurting as a result.

I know other parties love to kick out their leaders after a bad election result. But Notley is the Queen of the Alberta NDP. Sure she lost, but not much she could've done about a united right+the loss of the anti-Prentice protest vote. It's not like there is anyone who could replace her and do a better job. Albertans love her, they're just not social democrats.

If the UCP continues to be a far right whackadoodle party, and the NDP keeps Notley in charge, then yea, the province will reach equilibrium. I'm not so sure that will happen.