Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/riseoftheredtories

The above is an interesting article from 2009 I posted in the discussion of the UK Tories. Is there anyone in the Canadian Tories advocating this sort of thing? I understand that it used to be quite prominent in Canada (whence the phrase "Red Tory").

[CumbrianLefty]

Economically, pretty much the whole world is to the left of where it used to be, and Canada's no different. But while the "economically left, culturally right" trend has benefited people like Boris Johnson elsewhere, the broad-based leftward shift in Canada puts the CPC in a difficult position. The NDP was in prime position to capitalize on this in 2015, but Mulcair was stuck in old ways and Trudeau ate his lunch.

O'Toole says he's following the Boris Johnson model, but no proof that it's helping them at all. 

Maybe because personality is such an important part of BoJo's "success". Of course even were O'Toole that way, he couldn't count on the Canadian media being anything like as uncritically sycophantic - so that's two big differences at least.

[King of Kensington]

NDP stalwart and foreign affairs critic Jack Harris is retiring:

https://jackharris.ndp.ca/news/statement-jack-harriss-political-future

[mileslunn]

NDP stalwart and foreign affairs critic Jack Harris is retiring:

https://jackharris.ndp.ca/news/statement-jack-harriss-political-future

One more seat for Liberals likely.  In fact with way things are going, Liberals will probably win every Atlantic seat save the three Baptist belt ridings in New Brunswick which I suspect Tories hold.

[brucejoel99]

How would Rona Ambrose have fared?  She seems to be the great hope for the Conservatives.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/imagine-a-conservative-party-led-by-rona-ambrose-where-would-it-be-now/

I don't get the hype around Ambrose.

Everyone knows that interim leaders are treated with kid gloves. She did a competent job as interim leader, but I'm also old enough to remember having a hard time in some of her cabinet roles. The article rightly suggests she might have an easier time on climate as an Albertan, but it sort of memory-holed the regional question. Much of the discussion in the run up to O'Toole's victory was that the party was dominated by Westerners and needed someone from another region to change that perception. Ambrose would certainly fail on that front.

The case for Rona has a strong grass is always greener vibe. The last paragraph in the article put it well

“You look at what would Rona Ambrose look like having gone through a bruising leadership battle—because it’s not as though people would have stepped aside and given her the job—and what would she look like on the receiving end of Liberal attacks and all that kind of stuff that comes to an opposition leader,” he says. “There’s a lot of punches you’ve got to take between where she was and where she would be today if she was in the job today, and it’s hard to know what you would look like on the other side of that, even if you’re the best candidate out there.”

Although I suppose that there's nevertheless still a case to be made for having Ambrose as leader in that - for whatever reason - she just seemingly commands more respect & admiration among both the rank-&-file & party insiders in a way that Scheer & O'Toole never have. While she obviously would've faced the same challenges insofar as reconciling the stark contrast between the ascendant populist right-wing & the need for a viable party capable of governing is concerned, she at least could've arguably done so with the aid of a more unified base of support & respect than anybody else could hope for.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Hahahahahahaha

[mileslunn]

Hahahahahahaha

Bernier has gone off deep end and Tories should be thankful they dodged the bullet there.  As lousy as Scheer was, Bernier would have decimated the party and made winning in next decade near impossible.  I think O'Toole for all his troubles now would have done better than Scheer in 2019 although with less favourable circumstances now probably wins fewer seats.  Chong and Raitt probably best choices but I think with Chong good chance of another split but at least would have set party up better long term.

He clearly loves being provocative and with his party irrelevant its a way to stay in the news but my guess is PPC does even worse next election.  I think Maverick party is probably one that does best for dissatisfied right wingers but still stays in low single digits although probably cracks double digits in some rural Prairie ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP stalwart and foreign affairs critic Jack Harris is retiring:

https://jackharris.ndp.ca/news/statement-jack-harriss-political-future

One more seat for Liberals likely.  In fact with way things are going, Liberals will probably win every Atlantic seat save the three Baptist belt ridings in New Brunswick which I suspect Tories hold.

The NDP will be targeting Halifax, at least. I'm not sure it's winnable, but they're trying. Their candidate is a sitting MLA.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/riseoftheredtories

The above is an interesting article from 2009 I posted in the discussion of the UK Tories. Is there anyone in the Canadian Tories advocating this sort of thing? I understand that it used to be quite prominent in Canada (whence the phrase "Red Tory").

"Red Tory" is used to describe a completely different culture in Canada these days, something more akin to Rockefeller Republicans (fiscally conservative and business-friendly but progressive on social issues and now climate change). These were actually called "blue tories" historically, and the Mulroney PCs were a good example of that, but Harper kinda choked out the remnants of this culture. Really the only prominent and outspoken red/blue/Mulroney Tory in the CPC these days is Michael Chong. Most other blue tories have either accepted the Liberals' big spending tendencies because they find the CPC more unpalatable, or accepted the CPC's GOP-ish tendencies because they find the LPC more unpalatable.

Traditional Canadian/UK red tories (economically activist government but patrician in their tendencies) have been irrelevant in Canada for even longer, and I would argue that this culture is more embodied by the LPC than the CPC. O'Toole has been trying to move the CPC in a more economically activist direction, but he takes a more populist approach than a patrician one. With the old PCs dead, the Liberals are a more natural party of well-off centrists with bleeding heart tendencies.

I just don't think traditional UK/early Canadian red toryism works anymore in Canada. Canada is more culturally left wing than economically, and there isn't the economic stratification that made red toryism a viable ideology in the UK for so long. A Johnsonite red toryism/one-nation conservatism works in a country like the UK where cultural (not social) conservatism and nationalism are much more mainstream, but Canadians by and large don't subscribe to that sort of thing.

Funnily enough, the one major population in Canada where this kind of BoJo-style conservatism has appeal is Quebec, the least British of Canadian provinces. The Legault government in Quebec actually reminds me a bit of Johnson's Tories because they're not afraid to spend big and aren't religious wackos, but they're very nationalistic and culturally conservative.

[mileslunn]

I think with Canada problem for Tories is Canadians are mostly left leaning across board.  Not hard left, but centre-left.  On economics, balanced budgets aren't as big a priority as they were in past and I suspect that won't change until interest rates go up.  In terms of government role in economy, people don't favour centrally planned economy or massive nationalization, but I think there is a strong feeling free market system leaves too many behind so a more activist government has more support than in past.

On taxes, in past taxes tend to rise or fall uniformly, not go down for lower brackets and up for top brackets (that is a relatively recent thing) so lower taxes in past was more popular than now as parties on left tend to not raise lower and middle incomes, just top incomes.  Sure there is competitiveness and strong argument Canada's top brackets make us uncompetitive, but until Brain Drain hits really high levels I don't think too many care about that.  Never mind in 90s, top bracket affected anyone in top 10% whereas now only top 1%.  In Europe, many countries that have cut top rates in past decade have been those where it kicks in at a fairly low rate thus impacts many voters rather than just a few.  Even in US, Trump's top rate tax cuts only benefitted rich in red states with low taxes; it actually raised taxes on rich in high taxed blue states like California and New York due to SALT cap.  Never mind income inequality ever since Occupy Wall Street has been a huge issue in Canada and many across spectrum concerned about. 

On cultural conservatism, as mentioned sells well in Quebec, but in English Canada doesn't have resonance as elsewhere.  Europe wasn't built on immigration like Canada was thus why it works well there but struggles here.  US may be built on immigration like Canada, but many go back a lot further in terms of generations.  Only 20% of Americans have a foreign born parent while in Canada it is 40% while only 1/3 of Americans have a foreign born Grandparent while in Canada it is 60%.  More importantly most Americans with foreign born parents are non-white whereas in Canada even most whites have at least one foreign born Grandparent so talk of anti-immigration is tougher sell as many think back to their own family.  In Quebec by contrast most are descendants from settlers in 1600s and 1700s thus why works better there than elsewhere in Canada.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Although I'm not a Green Party supporter, it is quite disappointing to see that after all the hard work Elizabeth May put in to build the party over the past 15 years, it's being effectively blown apart all in a matter of months since a new leader took over.

Tbf, this is somewhat on May, as she railroaded the leadership candidates in order to hand it to Paul on a silver platter.

I think it goes back further. For the last decade or so, the Green Party has essentially been the Elizabeth May party.

A bit like how the federal Socreds were the Réal Caouette Party, right?

[King of Kensington]

O'Toole has been trying to move the CPC in a more economically activist direction, but he takes a more populist approach than a patrician one.

O'Toole seems to be a modern-day Diefenbaker Tory. 

[mileslunn]

O'Toole has been trying to move the CPC in a more economically activist direction, but he takes a more populist approach than a patrician one.

O'Toole seems to be a modern-day Diefenbaker Tory. 

Probably, but not sure that works.  I have asked this elsewhere, but would others agree that Canada is now one of the most left wing if not the most left wing countries on earth.  Sure Trudeau is only slightly left of centre, but how many other countries on earth does left have over 70% support and right sub 30%?  I don't think Canada is more left wing than much of Europe was in 70s, we are definitely more conservative than that, but I mean in present as we are swinging left while most other countries (not all though) are swinging right.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

O'Toole has been trying to move the CPC in a more economically activist direction, but he takes a more populist approach than a patrician one.

O'Toole seems to be a modern-day Diefenbaker Tory. 

Probably, but not sure that works.  I have asked this elsewhere, but would others agree that Canada is now one of the most left wing if not the most left wing countries on earth.  Sure Trudeau is only slightly left of centre, but how many other countries on earth does left have over 70% support and right sub 30%?  I don't think Canada is more left wing than much of Europe was in 70s, we are definitely more conservative than that, but I mean in present as we are swinging left while most other countries (not all though) are swinging right.

Well, the UK tories seem to be moving to the left in a pretty noticeable way. They spearheaded the G7 agreement on standardizing corporate tax and combating tax havens, and just the other day, Boris Johnson called for a "greener, more equitable, and more feminist recovery". Johnson's domestic policies don't strike me as particularly right-wing either. I find this interesting because usually the CPC is to the left of the UK Tories, but I think the CPC's base has gotten more GOP-esque in a way that really disadvantages them in a country like Canada.

[King of Kensington]

Boris is sounding like Chrystia Freeland.

[DC Al Fine]

We've talked before about how Anglo pols sound in French, particularly in the last two Tory leadership races. Turning the question around a bit, how do Trudeau, Blanchet and Bernier sound in French? How about Jean Chretien or Gilles Duceppe?

Obviously they're all fluent, but I'm curious about their class/regional aspects of their accents.

[Geoffrey Howe]

We've talked before about how Anglo pols sound in French, particularly in the last two Tory leadership races. Turning the question around a bit, how do Trudeau, Blanchet and Bernier sound in French? How about Jean Chretien or Gilles Duceppe?

Obviously they're all fluent, but I'm curious about their class/regional aspects of their accents.

By virtue of being Canadian they sound very odd (to me).
At least I understand them, unlike Acadian French which is incomprehensible. (I’m told my grandfather could because he spoke Saintongeais, the patois from which it is largely derived.)

[DC Al Fine]

NDP stalwart and foreign affairs critic Jack Harris is retiring:

https://jackharris.ndp.ca/news/statement-jack-harriss-political-future

One more seat for Liberals likely.  In fact with way things are going, Liberals will probably win every Atlantic seat save the three Baptist belt ridings in New Brunswick which I suspect Tories hold.

The NDP will be targeting Halifax, at least. I'm not sure it's winnable, but they're trying. Their candidate is a sitting MLA.

They only lost by a dozen points and they have a star candidate. I'd certainly call it winnable, especially if they can squash the Greens.

[MaxQue]

We've talked before about how Anglo pols sound in French, particularly in the last two Tory leadership races. Turning the question around a bit, how do Trudeau, Blanchet and Bernier sound in French? How about Jean Chretien or Gilles Duceppe?

Obviously they're all fluent, but I'm curious about their class/regional aspects of their accents.

Bernier, Blanchet and Duceppe speak perfectly "educated" French (except when they purposely decide to sound working-class, which is not uncommon for Blanchet). Trudeau has a poor vocabulary and often uses anglicisms or false friends and wierd sentence structures. Jean Chretien spoke a working class French (sometimes sounding wierd due to his speech/face paralysis issue).

[Don Vito Corleone]

For all of Miles's postings about how Canada has moved to the left, what has really changed? What have we got out of it? Is it just that the Liberals are in a very strong position and the Tories in a very weak one? That's hardly a rare or new occurrence. Is it just that people are more #woke (hate using that term but I can't think of a better one) and are less concerned with deficits? Well, that is true, but I hardly think that merits the constant talk of eternal Liberal dominion, especially considering even with a very weak Tory Party the Liberals only have about even odds of a majority at present.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

We've talked before about how Anglo pols sound in French, particularly in the last two Tory leadership races. Turning the question around a bit, how do Trudeau, Blanchet and Bernier sound in French? How about Jean Chretien or Gilles Duceppe?

Obviously they're all fluent, but I'm curious about their class/regional aspects of their accents.

Bernier, Blanchet and Duceppe speak perfectly "educated" French (except when they purposely decide to sound working-class, which is not uncommon for Blanchet). Trudeau has a poor vocabulary and often uses anglicisms or false friends and wierd sentence structures. Jean Chretien spoke a working class French (sometimes sounding wierd due to his speech/face paralysis issue).

Didn't Chretien get some criticism for speaking a working-class/hick French and validating the supposed stereotypes Anglos have of Quebec?

I might be misremembering, but if true then I think it's hilarious because
1. Most English Canadians wouldn't be able to tell if you sound like a Parisian professor or a fisherman from Gaspe lol it's all jibberish to people who don't speak French
2. Anglo politicians in North America, if anything, try to sound more working class than they actually are. This isn't the UK where everyone drops their regional inflections to speak a proper RP

[Estrella]

For all of Miles's postings about how Canada has moved to the left, what has really changed?

Not much.

Though it is interesting to see such a persistent case of delusions about the unstoppable march of history towards [insert ideology] where the ideology is the opposite of what the person in question supports. I'd love (hate?) to see what Freud would have made of it.

[Don Vito Corleone]

We've talked before about how Anglo pols sound in French, particularly in the last two Tory leadership races. Turning the question around a bit, how do Trudeau, Blanchet and Bernier sound in French? How about Jean Chretien or Gilles Duceppe?

Obviously they're all fluent, but I'm curious about their class/regional aspects of their accents.

Bernier, Blanchet and Duceppe speak perfectly "educated" French (except when they purposely decide to sound working-class, which is not uncommon for Blanchet). Trudeau has a poor vocabulary and often uses anglicisms or false friends and wierd sentence structures. Jean Chretien spoke a working class French (sometimes sounding wierd due to his speech/face paralysis issue).

Didn't Chretien get some criticism for speaking a working-class/hick French and validating the supposed stereotypes Anglos have of Quebec?

He did, yeah.

[Hatman 🍁]

We've talked before about how Anglo pols sound in French, particularly in the last two Tory leadership races. Turning the question around a bit, how do Trudeau, Blanchet and Bernier sound in French? How about Jean Chretien or Gilles Duceppe?

Obviously they're all fluent, but I'm curious about their class/regional aspects of their accents.

Bernier, Blanchet and Duceppe speak perfectly "educated" French (except when they purposely decide to sound working-class, which is not uncommon for Blanchet). Trudeau has a poor vocabulary and often uses anglicisms or false friends and wierd sentence structures. Jean Chretien spoke a working class French (sometimes sounding wierd due to his speech/face paralysis issue).

Didn't Chretien get some criticism for speaking a working-class/hick French and validating the supposed stereotypes Anglos have of Quebec?

I might be misremembering, but if true then I think it's hilarious because
1. Most English Canadians wouldn't be able to tell if you sound like a Parisian professor or a fisherman from Gaspe lol it's all jibberish to people who don't speak French

While this may be true, I find it incredibly easy to tell the difference between a Parisian accent and a Quebec accent, and I am in no way fluent in French. Anyone who makes even the slightest effort to train their ear will immediately be able to tell the difference. It's fairly easy to tell the difference when they're speaking English too (e.g. do they pronounce th's like z's or d's?)

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP stalwart and foreign affairs critic Jack Harris is retiring:

https://jackharris.ndp.ca/news/statement-jack-harriss-political-future

One more seat for Liberals likely.  In fact with way things are going, Liberals will probably win every Atlantic seat save the three Baptist belt ridings in New Brunswick which I suspect Tories hold.

The NDP will be targeting Halifax, at least. I'm not sure it's winnable, but they're trying. Their candidate is a sitting MLA.

They only lost by a dozen points and they have a star candidate. I'd certainly call it winnable, especially if they can squash the Greens.

I suppose it could be winnable. What's fascinating has been the collapse of the Tory vote in the last couple of elections there. I think the NDP can improve maybe 5-10 points (star candidate+Green collapse), but I think it will also require some of those red Tories to return home and stop voting Liberal. I don't necessarily see that happening.