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beesley
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« Reply #950 on: June 10, 2021, 10:58:25 AM »

Just came to post this. No specific comments, except bloody hell. I hate defecting so I'll be interested to see what happens and whether her reasoning holds up.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #951 on: June 10, 2021, 11:08:22 AM »

This is scummy, but the Greens themselves accepted a defecting MP, so they have no grounds to complain here.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #952 on: June 10, 2021, 11:58:53 AM »

Seems like a result of a Green civil war.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #953 on: June 10, 2021, 12:03:59 PM »

Greens seem to be not doing too well although she is pretty left wing, but Liberals under Trudeau have moved more to left so little difference between three major parties on left.
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If my soul was made of stone
discovolante
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« Reply #954 on: June 10, 2021, 12:06:04 PM »

So, I guess the Greens are back to being a de facto regional party now?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #955 on: June 10, 2021, 12:24:22 PM »

Also probably helps secure seat for Liberals as only way Tories could win here is strong split on left.  The Tories will dominate rural polls, but Fredericton where most live won't vote for them.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #956 on: June 10, 2021, 12:28:47 PM »

So, I guess the Greens are back to being a de facto regional party now?

Perhaps not even. The other MP is pissed at her and Elizabeth May husband resigned from the board.
All because of a leader with confused loyalties, who cannot choose between Canada and Israel.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #957 on: June 10, 2021, 03:33:27 PM »

So, I guess the Greens are back to being a de facto regional party now?

Well, they're trying to make a breakthrough in Ontario, but this floor crossing is not going to help that. I've previously stated that Toronto Centre is a toss up with Paul running there, but now I think the Liberals should be able to beat her. I guess it all depends on her performance in the debates.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #958 on: June 10, 2021, 04:31:55 PM »

Paul Manly may be making a jump too.  He removed the Green Party from his twitter bio and of course he was the other one targeted in this.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #959 on: June 10, 2021, 04:37:38 PM »

I don't know if I buy the Israel/Palestine explanation. Maybe the internal chaos caused by the controversy pushed her into this decision, but...

1. If her beef with Annamie Paul was her position on Palestine, it makes no sense to go Liberal. Atwin would never be allowed to call Israel an apartheid state as a Liberal, the LPC's position on Israel is pretty much the same as Annamie Paul's

2. Internal sources have reported that her floor crossing has been in the works for weeks.

I think the truth is that Jenica Atwin woke up and smelled the coffee. The Green Party is a distant fifth party that can barely keep its house in order, and Atwin seems like an ambitious person. Even if her name alone makes her safe as a Green in Fredericton, she had very little influence as a member of a caucus that isn't even officially recognized as an official party. She may be a smaller fish in the Liberal pond, but governing parties can actually do things, and she probably has enough of a name to push her priorities in a way that most Liberal backbenchers don't. The Liberals have also been tolerant of some light criticism from the left-wing of the caucus - Nathaniel Erskine-Smith comes to mind.

Atwin seems like more of an NDPer, but politically that was probably a dead end for her, as Fredericton doesn't have a strong NDP base. But she's probably safer as a Liberal in Fredericton than she would be, had she remained in the increasingly dysfunctional Green Party.

I think the Green Party is screwed if there's an election soon, which there likely will be. Paul is a vulnerable nd embattled leader inexplicably contesting Toronto Centre in a general, Manly isn't primetime material, and May is old news. Atwin could have helped improve the Greens' fortunes in the maritimes but without her they don't have the beachhead. Plus the Liberals have been much more forceful on climate in this parliament than the last so I really don't see how the Greens can grow as a party without some serious changes.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #960 on: June 10, 2021, 04:41:27 PM »

Paul Manly may be making a jump too.  He removed the Green Party from his twitter bio and of course he was the other one targeted in this.

Hah, imagine that! All that noise in 2019, and they may be back to where they started.

That said the NDP already has a candidate in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, and if Manly were to switch parties I'd think he'd go NDP. There's a LOT of bad blood between Greens and NDPers, and I'd imagine this is especially true on the island where the Greens have been the NDP's primary threat. So I don't know if Manly will jump just yet.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #961 on: June 10, 2021, 04:42:30 PM »

I'm pretty sure I saw a letter in a newspaper calling Israel an apartheid state and calling for trade sanctions against them signed by multiple Liberals.
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JoeyOCanada
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« Reply #962 on: June 10, 2021, 04:52:35 PM »

Although I'm not a Green Party supporter, it is quite disappointing to see that after all the hard work Elizabeth May put in to build the party over the past 15 years, it's being effectively blown apart all in a matter of months since a new leader took over.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #963 on: June 10, 2021, 05:07:35 PM »

Although I'm not a Green Party supporter, it is quite disappointing to see that after all the hard work Elizabeth May put in to build the party over the past 15 years, it's being effectively blown apart all in a matter of months since a new leader took over.

Tbf, this is somewhat on May, as she railroaded the leadership candidates in order to hand it to Paul on a silver platter.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #964 on: June 10, 2021, 05:10:04 PM »

Although I'm not a Green Party supporter, it is quite disappointing to see that after all the hard work Elizabeth May put in to build the party over the past 15 years, it's being effectively blown apart all in a matter of months since a new leader took over.

I think real issue is with Trudeau moving left, is there really a need for three centre-left parties as they all have more or less same policies, just varying degrees.  When Liberals were in dead centre it made sense to have a more left wing party and granted Liberals tend to talk the talk more than walk the walk on progressive policies, but at least if one believes in it, you can always push them from in better than another party.

Real part of the spectrum not represented is the middle.  If you are a Red Tory or Blue Liberal, you are more or less politically homeless and I am kind of surprised no one has tried to fill that in.  Although some suggest that this group is grossly overrepresented in media, but much smaller amongst general public and perhaps true as this group is disproportionately well off and university educated and usually over 40 in suburbs or affluent in urban neighbourhoods.

So Greens collapsing not a total surprise as not enough differences between progressive parties to warrant having three so it was likely one would implode, just a question of which one.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #965 on: June 10, 2021, 05:26:50 PM »

Although I'm not a Green Party supporter, it is quite disappointing to see that after all the hard work Elizabeth May put in to build the party over the past 15 years, it's being effectively blown apart all in a matter of months since a new leader took over.

I think real issue is with Trudeau moving left, is there really a need for three centre-left parties as they all have more or less same policies, just varying degrees.  When Liberals were in dead centre it made sense to have a more left wing party and granted Liberals tend to talk the talk more than walk the walk on progressive policies, but at least if one believes in it, you can always push them from in better than another party.

Real part of the spectrum not represented is the middle.  If you are a Red Tory or Blue Liberal, you are more or less politically homeless and I am kind of surprised no one has tried to fill that in.  Although some suggest that this group is grossly overrepresented in media, but much smaller amongst general public and perhaps true as this group is disproportionately well off and university educated and usually over 40 in suburbs or affluent in urban neighbourhoods.

So Greens collapsing not a total surprise as not enough differences between progressive parties to warrant having three so it was likely one would implode, just a question of which one.

Political centrists like that tend to support the incumbents when they think they're doing a decent enough job, or if they really don't like the alternative. In Ontario 2014 for example, the 905 went almost unanimously for Kathleen Wynne's OLP, which was more to the left than it was under McGuinty.

I think centrists are happy enough with the Liberals for now, like how a lot of left-liberals supported Chretien. The LPC may have moved left, but so has the country, so they haven't really ceded the "middle ground". Were the LPC to pivot to a more Martinite position, I bet they'd actually do worse, because it would be off-beat with the general tendency of modern political discourse in Canada.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #966 on: June 10, 2021, 05:28:17 PM »

Although I'm not a Green Party supporter, it is quite disappointing to see that after all the hard work Elizabeth May put in to build the party over the past 15 years, it's being effectively blown apart all in a matter of months since a new leader took over.

Tbf, this is somewhat on May, as she railroaded the leadership candidates in order to hand it to Paul on a silver platter.

I think it goes back further. For the last decade or so, the Green Party has essentially been the Elizabeth May party.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #967 on: June 10, 2021, 06:49:23 PM »

Although I'm not a Green Party supporter, it is quite disappointing to see that after all the hard work Elizabeth May put in to build the party over the past 15 years, it's being effectively blown apart all in a matter of months since a new leader took over.

I think real issue is with Trudeau moving left, is there really a need for three centre-left parties as they all have more or less same policies, just varying degrees.  When Liberals were in dead centre it made sense to have a more left wing party and granted Liberals tend to talk the talk more than walk the walk on progressive policies, but at least if one believes in it, you can always push them from in better than another party.

Real part of the spectrum not represented is the middle.  If you are a Red Tory or Blue Liberal, you are more or less politically homeless and I am kind of surprised no one has tried to fill that in.  Although some suggest that this group is grossly overrepresented in media, but much smaller amongst general public and perhaps true as this group is disproportionately well off and university educated and usually over 40 in suburbs or affluent in urban neighbourhoods.

So Greens collapsing not a total surprise as not enough differences between progressive parties to warrant having three so it was likely one would implode, just a question of which one.

Political centrists like that tend to support the incumbents when they think they're doing a decent enough job, or if they really don't like the alternative. In Ontario 2014 for example, the 905 went almost unanimously for Kathleen Wynne's OLP, which was more to the left than it was under McGuinty.

I think centrists are happy enough with the Liberals for now, like how a lot of left-liberals supported Chretien. The LPC may have moved left, but so has the country, so they haven't really ceded the "middle ground". Were the LPC to pivot to a more Martinite position, I bet they'd actually do worse, because it would be off-beat with the general tendency of modern political discourse in Canada.

True, but also gap between Liberals and NDP & Greens is much smaller.  In some ways PCs in 90s had same issue as Liberals moved right.  Still quite interesting how Canada is moving left when most countries are moving right.  Granted its more your cultural conservatism gaining elsewhere as opposed to economic conservatism.  That being said there is a strong argument Tories would do better if they reached out to Blue Liberals or Red Tories or have we reached a point where middle is hollowed out and its 2/3 on left, 1/3 on right?
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #968 on: June 10, 2021, 09:21:13 PM »

Although I'm not a Green Party supporter, it is quite disappointing to see that after all the hard work Elizabeth May put in to build the party over the past 15 years, it's being effectively blown apart all in a matter of months since a new leader took over.

I think real issue is with Trudeau moving left, is there really a need for three centre-left parties as they all have more or less same policies, just varying degrees.  When Liberals were in dead centre it made sense to have a more left wing party and granted Liberals tend to talk the talk more than walk the walk on progressive policies, but at least if one believes in it, you can always push them from in better than another party.

Real part of the spectrum not represented is the middle.  If you are a Red Tory or Blue Liberal, you are more or less politically homeless and I am kind of surprised no one has tried to fill that in.  Although some suggest that this group is grossly overrepresented in media, but much smaller amongst general public and perhaps true as this group is disproportionately well off and university educated and usually over 40 in suburbs or affluent in urban neighbourhoods.

So Greens collapsing not a total surprise as not enough differences between progressive parties to warrant having three so it was likely one would implode, just a question of which one.

Political centrists like that tend to support the incumbents when they think they're doing a decent enough job, or if they really don't like the alternative. In Ontario 2014 for example, the 905 went almost unanimously for Kathleen Wynne's OLP, which was more to the left than it was under McGuinty.

I think centrists are happy enough with the Liberals for now, like how a lot of left-liberals supported Chretien. The LPC may have moved left, but so has the country, so they haven't really ceded the "middle ground". Were the LPC to pivot to a more Martinite position, I bet they'd actually do worse, because it would be off-beat with the general tendency of modern political discourse in Canada.

True, but also gap between Liberals and NDP & Greens is much smaller.  In some ways PCs in 90s had same issue as Liberals moved right.  Still quite interesting how Canada is moving left when most countries are moving right.  Granted its more your cultural conservatism gaining elsewhere as opposed to economic conservatism.  That being said there is a strong argument Tories would do better if they reached out to Blue Liberals or Red Tories or have we reached a point where middle is hollowed out and its 2/3 on left, 1/3 on right?

I'm not so sure, I think there's still a significant right-of-centre vote in this country (just look at provincial governments - granted, a lot of the conservative premiers have done significant damage to themselves and their movement during COVID, so we'll see).

I don't think the middle has "hollowed out" though, it's more that the middle today is much more to the left than it once was. In 2008, Stephane Dion's Liberals basically ran on climate change and this didn't resonate at all with mainstream centrist voters who cared more about taxes than climate. This is no longer the case. Or when you look at the discussion around race/indigenous issues, or general LGBTQ acceptance, it's clear that the discourse and culture is very different than it used to be. I go back to the Don Cherry controversy in late 2019 - this man, who was once beloved by Canadians despite his decidedly non-PC statements for decades, managed to get kicked off Hockey Night in Canada. Yes it was a corporate decision and yes there was backlash, but the outrage wasn't what it probably would have been ten years ago. I think the median Canadian has moved to the left culturally, at a time when most of the world has done he opposite.

Economically, pretty much the whole world is to the left of where it used to be, and Canada's no different. But while the "economically left, culturally right" trend has benefited people like Boris Johnson elsewhere, the broad-based leftward shift in Canada puts the CPC in a difficult position. The NDP was in prime position to capitalize on this in 2015, but Mulcair was stuck in old ways and Trudeau ate his lunch.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #969 on: June 10, 2021, 09:27:08 PM »

Another theory is that most centrist suburban voters aren't thinking in terms of left/right, they're thinking in terms of what the government is actually doing. Trudeau hasn't raised taxes for most Canadians, he's actually lowered them for the key demographic in the GTA. And when he spends big, a lot of it is geared towards middle-class families (CCB, bringing in childcare, etc). The Liberal government is also very adept at appealing to niche GTA/big metro area concerns like gun violence and transit. For a centrist suburban family living in Ontario, the federal Liberals are putting more money in their pockets, while the provincial Conservatives are cutting their kids' education funding. It's pretty clear which party they would prefer.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #970 on: June 10, 2021, 09:28:55 PM »

Victoria postpones Canada Day plans in light of residential school deaths

https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/victoria-postpones-canada-day-plans-in-light-of-residential-school-deaths-1.5465652

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The City of Victoria is no longer planning to host a virtual Canada Day celebration on July 1 and will instead create a broadcast focused on broader Canadian history with guidance from local Lekwungen people.

The city says the broadcast will be released later in the summer and will consider "what it means to be Canadian."

"Context changed when those 215 children's bodies were discovered and they (the Lekwungen Nation) are reeling and everybody is reeling," said Victoria Mayor Lisa Helps on Thursday. "We're all just doing our best to figure out how to move forward."

The discoveries of the bodies are still on people's mind
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #971 on: June 10, 2021, 09:48:22 PM »

Economically, pretty much the whole world is to the left of where it used to be, and Canada's no different. But while the "economically left, culturally right" trend has benefited people like Boris Johnson elsewhere, the broad-based leftward shift in Canada puts the CPC in a difficult position. The NDP was in prime position to capitalize on this in 2015, but Mulcair was stuck in old ways and Trudeau ate his lunch.

O'Toole says he's following the Boris Johnson model, but no proof that it's helping them at all. 

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King of Kensington
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« Reply #972 on: June 10, 2021, 11:45:42 PM »

How would Rona Ambrose have fared?  She seems to be the great hope for the Conservatives.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/imagine-a-conservative-party-led-by-rona-ambrose-where-would-it-be-now/
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mileslunn
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« Reply #973 on: June 11, 2021, 03:32:46 AM »


I think Canada has moved enough left that there are few in Tories who could win today.  As for elsewhere, not sure shift has been as pronounced.  Even on economic policy,. Reagan/Thatcher era may be over, but not sure concerns about income inequality are as acute as in Canada.  In part I think living next to US which is more right wing than most may be what is pushing us more to left.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #974 on: June 11, 2021, 04:34:43 AM »


I don't get the hype around Ambrose.

Everyone knows that interim leaders are treated with kid gloves. She did a competent job as interim leader, but I'm also old enough to remember having a hard time in some of her cabinet roles. The article rightly suggests she might have an easier time on climate as an Albertan, but it sort of memory-holed the regional question. Much of the discussion in the run up to O'Toole's victory was that the party was dominated by Westerners and needed someone from another region to change that perception. Ambrose would certainly fail on that front.

The case for Rona has a strong grass is always greener vibe. The last paragraph in the article put it well

Quote
“You look at what would Rona Ambrose look like having gone through a bruising leadership battle—because it’s not as though people would have stepped aside and given her the job—and what would she look like on the receiving end of Liberal attacks and all that kind of stuff that comes to an opposition leader,” he says. “There’s a lot of punches you’ve got to take between where she was and where she would be today if she was in the job today, and it’s hard to know what you would look like on the other side of that, even if you’re the best candidate out there.”
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