Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Continential]

Singh should go because he is using the NDP as a way to be an influencer and this is a good article on how Singh is a influencer even if some of the other articles on the website are awful.

[T'Chenka]

Singh should go because he is using the NDP as a way to be an influencer and this is a good article on how Singh is a influencer even if some of the other articles on the website are awful.

He's the leader of the NDP, and a left wing influencer. He isn't using the NDP to be an influencer. Why would you believe cr@p like that? Polls indicate that Canadians think Singh is a nice guy and sincere. He believes in his left wing policies. So he isn't "using" anything.

[CumbrianLefty]

Indeed, he should go because he is an ineffective leader.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Singh is the real loser here though. He humiliated himself and his party just for Trudeau to go "oh, actually, nevermind"

It's amazing to me that replacing Singh is something the NDP doesn't even consider. He's a decent enough guy, but as leader has proven pretty weak. He and his supporters would make the argument that he's the reason Trudeau has shifted to the left, which is kind of hard to disprove. But they seem to support every initiative Trudeau brings forward, which brings into question how much leverage they really have over a government that has always presented themselves as orange grits.

I like Singh a lot, but I'm open to replacing him... IF the replacement is going to improve how well the NDP is doing. I would need to see a convincing argument for why so-and-so will be an upgrade on Singh before I could approve of it.

That's fair enough, there's really no obvious replacement either, but Charlie Angus is probably a decent replacement. while Angus isn't the charismatic celebrity that Singh is, he's someone who could really take the fight to Trudeau/Freeland come next election. And yes, I do think the NDP should go more on the offensive. The Liberals aren't getting any stronger and the Tories could face some serious infighting, so there's an opening for the NDP to make solid gains. But you don't get there if people just see you as a glorified lobby group

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Singh is the real loser here though. He humiliated himself and his party just for Trudeau to go "oh, actually, nevermind"

It's amazing to me that replacing Singh is something the NDP doesn't even consider. He's a decent enough guy, but as leader has proven pretty weak. He and his supporters would make the argument that he's the reason Trudeau has shifted to the left, which is kind of hard to disprove. But they seem to support every initiative Trudeau brings forward, which brings into question how much leverage they really have over a government that has always presented themselves as orange grits.

I like Singh a lot, but I'm open to replacing him... IF the replacement is going to improve how well the NDP is doing. I would need to see a convincing argument for why so-and-so will be an upgrade on Singh before I could approve of it.

That's fair enough, there's really no obvious replacement either, but Charlie Angus is probably a decent replacement. while Angus isn't the charismatic celebrity that Singh is, he's someone who could really take the fight to Trudeau/Freeland come next election. And yes, I do think the NDP should go more on the offensive. The Liberals aren't getting any stronger and the Tories could face some serious infighting, so there's an opening for the NDP to make solid gains. But you don't get there if people just see you as a glorified lobby group

I think his seat has maybe 2 elections left for the NDP, maybe even just 1 if he's made party leader and immediately associated with culture war stuff. Mostly white rural working class seat is something that's on borrowed time for the NDP in it's current state and he can't afford to fall much.



Seriously, Timmins—James Bay might soon have one of Canadas most right-wing MP's after Angus.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Singh is the real loser here though. He humiliated himself and his party just for Trudeau to go "oh, actually, nevermind"

It's amazing to me that replacing Singh is something the NDP doesn't even consider. He's a decent enough guy, but as leader has proven pretty weak. He and his supporters would make the argument that he's the reason Trudeau has shifted to the left, which is kind of hard to disprove. But they seem to support every initiative Trudeau brings forward, which brings into question how much leverage they really have over a government that has always presented themselves as orange grits.

I like Singh a lot, but I'm open to replacing him... IF the replacement is going to improve how well the NDP is doing. I would need to see a convincing argument for why so-and-so will be an upgrade on Singh before I could approve of it.

That's fair enough, there's really no obvious replacement either, but Charlie Angus is probably a decent replacement. while Angus isn't the charismatic celebrity that Singh is, he's someone who could really take the fight to Trudeau/Freeland come next election. And yes, I do think the NDP should go more on the offensive. The Liberals aren't getting any stronger and the Tories could face some serious infighting, so there's an opening for the NDP to make solid gains. But you don't get there if people just see you as a glorified lobby group

I think his seat has maybe 2 elections left for the NDP, maybe even just 1 if he's made party leader and immediately associated with culture war stuff. Mostly white rural working class seat is something that's on borrowed time for the NDP in it's current state and he can't afford to fall much.



Seriously, Timmins—James Bay might soon have one of Canadas most right-wing MP's after Angus.

I hadn't considered that. You're right, the trend isn't favourable to Angus, but party leaders usually get a bump.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Singh is the real loser here though. He humiliated himself and his party just for Trudeau to go "oh, actually, nevermind"

It's amazing to me that replacing Singh is something the NDP doesn't even consider. He's a decent enough guy, but as leader has proven pretty weak. He and his supporters would make the argument that he's the reason Trudeau has shifted to the left, which is kind of hard to disprove. But they seem to support every initiative Trudeau brings forward, which brings into question how much leverage they really have over a government that has always presented themselves as orange grits.

I like Singh a lot, but I'm open to replacing him... IF the replacement is going to improve how well the NDP is doing. I would need to see a convincing argument for why so-and-so will be an upgrade on Singh before I could approve of it.

That's fair enough, there's really no obvious replacement either, but Charlie Angus is probably a decent replacement. while Angus isn't the charismatic celebrity that Singh is, he's someone who could really take the fight to Trudeau/Freeland come next election. And yes, I do think the NDP should go more on the offensive. The Liberals aren't getting any stronger and the Tories could face some serious infighting, so there's an opening for the NDP to make solid gains. But you don't get there if people just see you as a glorified lobby group

I think his seat has maybe 2 elections left for the NDP, maybe even just 1 if he's made party leader and immediately associated with culture war stuff. Mostly white rural working class seat is something that's on borrowed time for the NDP in it's current state and he can't afford to fall much.



Seriously, Timmins—James Bay might soon have one of Canadas most right-wing MP's after Angus.

I hadn't considered that. You're right, the trend isn't favourable to Angus, but party leaders usually get a bump.

I don't think it will help for Angus, it'll immediately force him to be vocal about several issues which could easily erode his support in the district. Right now he doesn't have to be loud about issues like enviormentalist where the NDP position will struggle in the district, that will change if he becomes leader.

[Хahar 🤔]

Talking about "trends" like they represent some sort of unstoppable force is annoying enough normally, but it's absurd in the context of Canada. In the riding in question here, the Conservative vote has basically held steady over the last decade and the decline in the NDP vote is largely the product of Liberal gains. Is the lesson here that the rising red tide will engulf all remote white ridings?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Talking about "trends" like they represent some sort of unstoppable force is annoying enough normally, but it's absurd in the context of Canada. In the riding in question here, the Conservative vote has basically held steady over the last decade and the decline in the NDP vote is largely the product of Liberal gains. Is the lesson here that the rising red tide will engulf all remote white ridings?

Not really though. In 2011 and 2019, the drop in NDP support mainly helped the CPC, and in 2021, the PPC (Libs lost vote share in all three examples). The main exception is 2015, when the Trudeau Liberals were at their most popular.

I know "trends" are overemphasized by many on this forum, but in the case of Timmins-James Bay, the rightward trend is pretty clear.

[King of Kensington]

I guess we'll see this month if reduced First Nations turnout hurt Angus.  But yeah, the erosion of the NDP support among the nonmetropolitan WWC is clear.

In another Northern Ontario riding - Nickel Belt - the NDP came in third for the first time since the early 1960s.

[Хahar 🤔]

Talking about "trends" like they represent some sort of unstoppable force is annoying enough normally, but it's absurd in the context of Canada. In the riding in question here, the Conservative vote has basically held steady over the last decade and the decline in the NDP vote is largely the product of Liberal gains. Is the lesson here that the rising red tide will engulf all remote white ridings?

Not really though. In 2011 and 2019, the drop in NDP support mainly helped the CPC, and in 2021, the PPC (Libs lost vote share in all three examples). The main exception is 2015, when the Trudeau Liberals were at their most popular.

I know "trends" are overemphasized by many on this forum, but in the case of Timmins-James Bay, the rightward trend is pretty clear.

There is a "rightward trend" in that the NDP vote has declined and all other parties are to the right of the NDP. This is the overall change over the last decade:

NDP: ‒14.85 pp
Con: ‒4.7 pp
Lib: +8.63 pp
Grn: ‒2.2 pp
PPC: +13.12 pp

The Conservative Party share of the vote has decreased appreciably over that span, and the Liberal Party vote has increased significantly. On that basis we could talk about the dramatic rightward shift in every sorts of place in the GTA that voted NDP in 2011 and (unlike this riding) don't vote NDP anymore.

If you were instead to add 100% of People's Party votes to the Conservative column, it's true that you would then see an increase in the Conservative share of the vote, although it would still be less than the Liberal increase. This would, of course, be grossly inappropriate, since a) there's no reason to assume that all PPC voters would have voted Tory if they had not been presented an alternate option, and b) there's no reason to assume that the alternate option will disappear.

It's undeniably true that the NDP vote has gone down a great deal. Maybe that's because of trends the like of which cannot be stopped, much like how depopulation and automation have cut into the NDP base in rural Saskatchewan. (Timmins—James Bay, of course, has very little in common with rural Saskatchewan.) Alternately, maybe the NDP decline over the last decade is because a) the NDP vote has declined almost everywhere in that span, and b) the NDP is led by a Toronto politician whose appeal is entirely in his identity, an identity that has little valence in northern Ontario. In any case, the idea that this inevitable decline would be accelerated by the local MP becoming party leader is ludicrous, as if local residents would see Charlie Angus on television during the leaders' debate and suddenly realize to their horror that they'd been checking the NDP box because of muscle memory the whole time.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Talking about "trends" like they represent some sort of unstoppable force is annoying enough normally, but it's absurd in the context of Canada. In the riding in question here, the Conservative vote has basically held steady over the last decade and the decline in the NDP vote is largely the product of Liberal gains. Is the lesson here that the rising red tide will engulf all remote white ridings?

Not really though. In 2011 and 2019, the drop in NDP support mainly helped the CPC, and in 2021, the PPC (Libs lost vote share in all three examples). The main exception is 2015, when the Trudeau Liberals were at their most popular.

I know "trends" are overemphasized by many on this forum, but in the case of Timmins-James Bay, the rightward trend is pretty clear.

There is a "rightward trend" in that the NDP vote has declined and all other parties are to the right of the NDP. This is the overall change over the last decade:

NDP: ‒14.85 pp
Con: ‒4.7 pp
Lib: +8.63 pp
Grn: ‒2.2 pp
PPC: +13.12 pp

The Conservative Party share of the vote has decreased appreciably over that span, and the Liberal Party vote has increased significantly. On that basis we could talk about the dramatic rightward shift in every sorts of place in the GTA that voted NDP in 2011 and (unlike this riding) don't vote NDP anymore.

Comparing 2011 numbers to 2021 numbers to display a trend is bad methodology at best. 2011 was a historically good election for the CPC, and a historically bad one for the LPC, so using 2011 as a benchmark would show almost every riding in the country trending Liberal, which is not very helpful. If you instead picked 2015 as the benchmark, then it would look like the LPC has collapsed in TJB and the Tories have shot up in support.

Trends can't be determined by just comparing two random elections, because that ignores the specific circumstances of each election. Comparing over a longer timeframe makes more sense. NDP support in TJB has gone down consistently since 2008, and only in one of those elections did it correlate with increased Liberal support. In the other three, it correlated with increased Conservative and later PPC support. This would suggest that the riding is, on balance, trending rightwards.

[Benjamin Frank]

Singh is the real loser here though. He humiliated himself and his party just for Trudeau to go "oh, actually, nevermind"

It's amazing to me that replacing Singh is something the NDP doesn't even consider. He's a decent enough guy, but as leader has proven pretty weak. He and his supporters would make the argument that he's the reason Trudeau has shifted to the left, which is kind of hard to disprove. But they seem to support every initiative Trudeau brings forward, which brings into question how much leverage they really have over a government that has always presented themselves as orange grits.

I like Singh a lot, but I'm open to replacing him... IF the replacement is going to improve how well the NDP is doing. I would need to see a convincing argument for why so-and-so will be an upgrade on Singh before I could approve of it.

That's fair enough, there's really no obvious replacement either, but Charlie Angus is probably a decent replacement. while Angus isn't the charismatic celebrity that Singh is, he's someone who could really take the fight to Trudeau/Freeland come next election. And yes, I do think the NDP should go more on the offensive. The Liberals aren't getting any stronger and the Tories could face some serious infighting, so there's an opening for the NDP to make solid gains. But you don't get there if people just see you as a glorified lobby group

I'm not sure on what basis here people conclude that the NDP was either hurt by the blockades or that these blockades were somehow popular in Canada.  I mentioned the Abacus Poll previously.  The Ipsos poll, has even better numbers for the NDP at 23% (Conservatives 32%/Liberals 32%)
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/liberals-conservatives-remain-deadlocked-in-national-vote-intentions-trucker-protests

Of course, the usual qualifications: it's only one poll (or two polls) and it was during the event, but this board especially seems to be offside most Canadians in their views on the Covid restrictions/protections.

In regards to the next NDP leader, other than the polling anyway showing Jagmeet Singh more popular with more groups of Canadians than this board seems to acknowledge, I think the strength of the NDP is clearly in the West, especially British Columbia (13 of 25 ridings.)  But, it's hard to see any of the B.C NDP M.Ps as future leaders.  There are two potential future leaders in Manitoba though:

1.Daniel Blaikie, an M.P since 2015 and an electrician who represents the Winnipeg working class riding of Elmwood-Transcona.  This is mostly a former north eastern Winnipeg 'inner suburban' area.  The suburbs of Winnipeg were merged into the city of Winnipeg I believe sometime during the government of New Democrat Ed Schreyer sometime between 1969 and 1977.

2.Leah Gazan, an M.P since 2019 and an education professor who was also the President of the Winnipeg Social Planning Council.  A number of prominent former NDP M.Ps were associated with the Winnipeg Social Planning Council including David Orlikow and, I believe, Stanley Knowles.  

Gazan represents Winnipeg North. She is on the left of the party, but unlike Niki Ashton, her tone is much more moderate.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Talking about "trends" like they represent some sort of unstoppable force is annoying enough normally, but it's absurd in the context of Canada. In the riding in question here, the Conservative vote has basically held steady over the last decade and the decline in the NDP vote is largely the product of Liberal gains. Is the lesson here that the rising red tide will engulf all remote white ridings?

The conservative base has held steady as the PPC has gone from non-existent to 13% of the vote, and liberals have declined since their 2015 high-point. Why deny the obvious right-wing trend in the region ? why should the residents of Timmins—James Bay be exempt from the same trend that has been pushing people of the same mileau to the right everywhere else in the world ?

[omar04]

Plausibility check on Bernier going into the 2021 election as the Conservatives' leader if he didn't leave to found the PPC? I saw a post arguing he could have won the next leadership election on this subforum a while ago.

Was wondering if I could get a reply?

[T'Chenka]

Plausibility check on Bernier going into the 2021 election as the Conservatives' leader if he didn't leave to found the PPC? I saw a post arguing he could have won the next leadership election on this subforum a while ago.

Was wondering if I could get a reply?

It's hard to say. Right now the Conservatives are calling for less of a compromiser than O'Toole and more of a right winger, but Bernier MIGHT be too far in the other direction... riles up some of the base but can't appeal to swing voters. There are also a lot of "Romney McCain" type Conservatives in Canada who wore masks, got vaccines and don't like Trump. Not saying Bernier couldn't win their party over but it wouldn't be super easy. A bunch - maybe half? - of Conservatives would be against Bernier in a primary. They might prefer him to Trudeau in a general election though.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Plausibility check on Bernier going into the 2021 election as the Conservatives' leader if he didn't leave to found the PPC? I saw a post arguing he could have won the next leadership election on this subforum a while ago.

Was wondering if I could get a reply?

I think he would have lost to MacKay. Even if he had stayed a Tory, I think he's someone who would take an anti-lockdown/mandate/mask position. That's a winning position for a Tory in 2022, but would not have been in 2020.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

CBC: Quebec Public Health scrambled to justify 2nd curfew hours before announcement

In recent months, it had started feeling like political display was taking precedence over public health with regard to many of the public health measures invoked, and in the case of Quebec's second curfew, this seems to have been the case.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thoughts on this video, y'all?

[T'Chenka]

Thoughts on this video, y'all?

I can't stand to watch him, I'm sorry.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Thoughts on this video, y'all?

I'm really tired of JJ being the one person annointed to speak about Canada online, so I was reluctant to watch this video, but I can't sleep so I decided to give it a go. Not particularly contentious but not particularly deep either, and all presented through JJ's weird idiosyncratic viewpoint about how the Canadian left is caught up in some kind of anti-American hysteria. 5/10, I've seen worse but I can think of better ways to spend 20 minutes. I'm happy to go back to ignoring JJ after this.

[T'Chenka]

Thoughts on this video, y'all?

I'm really tired of JJ being the one person annointed to speak about Canada online, so I was reluctant to watch this video, but I can't sleep so I decided to give it a go. Not particularly contentious but not particularly deep either, and all presented through JJ's weird idiosyncratic viewpoint about how the Canadian left is caught up in some kind of anti-American hysteria. 5/10, I've seen worse but I can think of better ways to spend 20 minutes. I'm happy to go back to ignoring JJ after this.

The Canadian left, in my personal experience, IS anti-American, because the Canadian left is anti right wing and America is full of Republicans and Republican ideologies.

[Independents for Nihilism]

The Canadian left, in my personal experience, IS anti-American, because the Canadian left is anti right wing and America is full of Republicans and Republican ideologies.

I should have been more clear; my operative word wasn't meant to be anti-American, it was hysteria. Like he was going on about how the media was playing up Canadians as compliant and communitarian and Americans as selfish, it's not appropriate to flip that on its head, and I find it unfair to frame the broad Canadian agreement with madates as us being good little sheeple who do what we're told instead of as mild sacrifice and inconvenience for a greater good - basically a lot of words to say "we live in a society", which may be anathema to anyone who says "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety".

[CumbrianLefty]

Canada has basically defined itself against its more powerful neighbour since, well, forever really?

(and its not just a thing on their "left" either)

[DC Al Fine]

Canada has basically defined itself against its more powerful neighbour since, well, forever really?

(and its not just a thing on their "left" either)

Yeah. Of all of the takes one could criticize JJ McCullough for, his "Canada has a leftish anti-American nationalism" has got to be his least controversial one.