Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[MaxQue]

Blaine Higgs seems to be surviving as Premier by a thread. Couldn't happen to a more deserving horrible person.

Another N.B. cabinet minister resigns from Blaine Higgs government
https://globalnews.ca/news/9788527/nb-trevor-holder-resigns-higgs-cabinet/

and with slightly different information
https://ca.movies.yahoo.com/brunswick-premier-loses-second-cabinet-161335475.html

On Wednesday, 26 out of 49 current riding presidents signed letters asking for Higgs to step down, claiming his leadership has divided the party.

What is the cause of his problems?

Officially, the repeal of Policy 713, which allows teens to be called by the pronoun of their choice in schools without parental approval, among other things.

Officiously, Higgs is trying to run the province and his party without listening to anybody (but his pastor), which has transformed the caucus, the Cabinet and party meetings into echo chambers where Higgs get upset if you don't agree with him.

[MaxQue]

Blaine Higgs seems to be surviving as Premier by a thread. Couldn't happen to a more deserving horrible person.

Another N.B. cabinet minister resigns from Blaine Higgs government
https://globalnews.ca/news/9788527/nb-trevor-holder-resigns-higgs-cabinet/

and with slightly different information
https://ca.movies.yahoo.com/brunswick-premier-loses-second-cabinet-161335475.html

On Wednesday, 26 out of 49 current riding presidents signed letters asking for Higgs to step down, claiming his leadership has divided the party.

What is the cause of his problems?

Officially, the repeal of Policy 713, which allows teens to be called by the pronoun of their choice in schools without parental approval, among other things.

Officiously, Higgs is trying to run the province and his party without listening to anybody (but his pastor), which has transformed the caucus, the Cabinet and party meetings into echo chambers where Higgs get upset if you don't agree with him.

How much more time would you give him?

He'll stay, he made pretty clear he'll call an election the second the party looks likely to get rid of him and replace every candidate by a lackey of him.

[MaxQue]

Can a nationwide election even be held in canada right now? If the governement collapses for some reason and elections are called, how will the citizens of NWT even vote when over half of them have been evacuated? VBM?

The 1997 election was held despite massive floods in Manitoba.

[MaxQue]

Sorry for my ignorance, but what is happening in NWT?

65% of the population has been evacuated outside the territory, including the capital Yellowknife, due to wildfires. The town of Entreprise has already been destroyed.

[MaxQue]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12449007/Canadian-lawmaker-game-plan-DICTATORSHIP-election.html

The Canadian Foreign Minister seems to think the US is an unreliable ally. Which, to be fair, we are; we started a trade war with them for no reason under Trump. But it's yet another sobering reminder, as if it were needed, that Canada sees us as a threat. Makes me feel pretty ashamed of my nationality, per usual.

Trump? We're in a trade war about lumber since Reagan.

[MaxQue]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/international-student-cap-immigration-system-integrity-1.6948733

mmigration Minister Marc Miller says the concern around the skyrocketing number of international students entering Canada is not just about housing, but Canadians' confidence in the "integrity" of the immigration system itself.

Canada is on track to welcome around 900,000 international students this year, Miller said in an interview that aired Saturday on CBC's The House. That's more than at any point in Canada's history and roughly triple the number of students who entered the country a decade ago.

This is insane

And yet provinces want more (as they pay very large amounts of tuition, they allow provinces to spend less money on higher education).

[MaxQue]

When an NDP leader makes gains, even small ones, they have historically been kept around. The party is not like the Conservatives who don't care about having a revolving door for their leadership.

Singh may be ineffectual at growing the party's support, but the party's numbers are not bad from an historical standpoint. During the Layton years, the party routinely polled even lower than now, but Layton was always able to increase the numbers during the election campaign. And Singh has done that too (though, to a lesser extent).

He is really missing the ball right now and is being quite ineffectual of course, but he's not going to get turfed until we see a seat loss. 

He is not going to be turfed ever. Too many party members not caring about policy, but only about their brownies points for having a "racialised" party leader.

[MaxQue]

Is there a thread on here on the reapportionment that will likely be in place for the next election?

If not, is there a general consensus on how reapportionment will affect party standings? Did any incumbents in particular get kind of screwed over? Where is the lost seat in Quebec?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=467200.0

There is no lost seat in Quebec, they amended the law so it wouldn't happen.

[MaxQue]

Is there a thread on here on the reapportionment that will likely be in place for the next election?

If not, is there a general consensus on how reapportionment will affect party standings? Did any incumbents in particular get kind of screwed over? Where is the lost seat in Quebec?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=467200.0

There is no lost seat in Quebec, they amended the law so it wouldn't happen.

Textbook Malapportionment. What will happen as the rest of Canada keeps growing faster than Quebec? I guess a system like India where their ratio is arbitrarily "frozen" might happen due to their distinct culture?

As the number of seats went up, the ratio is not frozen, as the Bloc likes to scream to whomever wants to hear it.

The point is more that no provinces ever lost seats since 1968 (Quebec and Manitoba losing 1 each) and it seems to be a precedent most parties wanted to keep (there was some Conservative opposition, but the leaders agreed to pass it without a vote, as it would be toxic to the electoral prospect of any party in Quebec to have MPs voting against it).

[MaxQue]

I think shifts have been happening for following reason.  Note polls are a snapshot and can change.

Quebec:  It has been pretty steady there and kind of makes sense as housing less of an issue and things people upset with Liberals haven't been impacting Quebec.  At same time I find Quebecers have shallowest loyalty to any party so they are prone to massive swings, but typically during election campaign, not before.  See 1984 and 2011 as examples of this.

Conservatives are also starting to do better in Quebec, tbf. There have been a few polls with the CPC above 20% in Quebec, which we haven't seen since the brief-lived O'Toole surge in 2021 (in an actual election, 20% would be the best performance since 2008). Probably more a case of rising tides lifting all boats than anything specific about Quebec.

But Quebec seems to mostly be an afterthought for the Tories, because of how steep the odds are there. Short of a serious surge, they can only realistically pick up 4-5 ridings. Atlantic Canada, despite being much smaller, offers more target seats, and the big prize is obviously southern Ontario. So apart from the nationwide Poilievre bump this summer, there's really not much of an effort to get Quebec to vote Conservative, because there's not much ground they can realistically gain there.

Also because if push came to shove and PP won a minority, Legault would see that the Bloc lets them govern.

Legault has no power over the Bloc (a PQ Premier might).

[MaxQue]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/jamie-sarkonak-house-arrest-for-impregnating-daughter-a-result-of-race-based-sentencing

So Canada is now doing race based sentencing.

While the Crown established, using past cases, that a jail sentence of four to six years was normal for this kind of crime, the appeal court dismissed this as merely a guideline. The court also noted that the offenders, in previous cases, were not African Nova Scotians. When deciding whether offenders of such heritage should serve house arrest or jail, the court wrote that “a more nuanced approach” was required. In short, a racial discount was to be applied.

It is that way since 1999, since a Supreme Court decision.

[MaxQue]

I wonder if there is any chance Trudeau uses this to overall smartly restrict Indian immigration to more manageable levels while having political cover. Seems like the smartest play and the right for Canada, and US citizens.

I disagree. Restricting Indian immigration would show the world that Canada is afraid of Modi. Canada needs to increase immigration from India, if anything. It sends a better message: “unlike India, Canada is a free nation”

lmao. Are you aware of the current immigration situatuon in Canada and its effect on the housing crisis and cost of living? The strip mall diploma mills?

The idea that immigrants are to blame for housing shortages is nonsensical. Housing shortages are evidence of insufficient supply, not too much demand. Building more housing would solve the problem. Secondly, the implication that a citizen is more deserving of housing than a citizen is xenophobic.

Any time someone is blaming “immigrants” for a societal ill, it’s a distraction from the actual causes.

Or it means immigration is the cause. Sometimes this is the case, perish the thought!

The current situation in Canada is such a case. Cost of living is through the roof as Trudeau's government is bringing in well over a million immigrants a year in a country of under 40 million. Hundreds of thousands of these are arriving on international student visas to attend diploma mill "colleges" in strip malls that are made up entirely of these visa holders, have terrible outcomes, and are mostly vehicles for roundabout immigration.

You can't magically wave a wand and build millions of housing units overnight. Canada is in crisis and immigration must be dramatically reduced to at least pre-2019 levels as part of the solution.

Your politics have become increasingly unmoored from reality. You are clearly operating on a separate plane in which the things you want to be true, because they make you feel good, are actually true, 100% of the time and without exception.

Immigration in Canada should return to Harper era numbers .

I only said pre-2019 because I was arguing with Fergie. It does need to drop tremendously for awhile until the impact of the last 3 years of insane immigration levels has worn off.

Oh I absolutely agree , which means probably even lower than Harper era numbers for a 3-4 years as well . The amount of student visas they give out is insane and that’s probably the first area they should make drastic cuts in

But that's the thing provinces opposes the most (it's financing their education system), and, for a province like Quebec, which has an immigration deal with the Canadian government, they cannot do it without provincial approval.

[MaxQue]

I wonder if there is any chance Trudeau uses this to overall smartly restrict Indian immigration to more manageable levels while having political cover. Seems like the smartest play and the right for Canada, and US citizens.

I disagree. Restricting Indian immigration would show the world that Canada is afraid of Modi. Canada needs to increase immigration from India, if anything. It sends a better message: “unlike India, Canada is a free nation”

lmao. Are you aware of the current immigration situatuon in Canada and its effect on the housing crisis and cost of living? The strip mall diploma mills?

The idea that immigrants are to blame for housing shortages is nonsensical. Housing shortages are evidence of insufficient supply, not too much demand. Building more housing would solve the problem. Secondly, the implication that a citizen is more deserving of housing than a citizen is xenophobic.

Any time someone is blaming “immigrants” for a societal ill, it’s a distraction from the actual causes.

Or it means immigration is the cause. Sometimes this is the case, perish the thought!

The current situation in Canada is such a case. Cost of living is through the roof as Trudeau's government is bringing in well over a million immigrants a year in a country of under 40 million. Hundreds of thousands of these are arriving on international student visas to attend diploma mill "colleges" in strip malls that are made up entirely of these visa holders, have terrible outcomes, and are mostly vehicles for roundabout immigration.

You can't magically wave a wand and build millions of housing units overnight. Canada is in crisis and immigration must be dramatically reduced to at least pre-2019 levels as part of the solution.

Your politics have become increasingly unmoored from reality. You are clearly operating on a separate plane in which the things you want to be true, because they make you feel good, are actually true, 100% of the time and without exception.

Immigration in Canada should return to Harper era numbers .

I only said pre-2019 because I was arguing with Fergie. It does need to drop tremendously for awhile until the impact of the last 3 years of insane immigration levels has worn off.

Oh I absolutely agree , which means probably even lower than Harper era numbers for a 3-4 years as well . The amount of student visas they give out is insane and that’s probably the first area they should make drastic cuts in

But that's the thing provinces opposes the most (it's financing their education system), and, for a province like Quebec, which has an immigration deal with the Canadian government, they cannot do it without provincial approval.

This is not a power provinces should have though

Changing that would require amending the Constitution, so it's not realistic.

[MaxQue]

In the other big news in Canada, Doug Ford has admitted he made a mistake and will not remove the land from the Greenbelt for development.

History lesson: Conceding mistakes is how WAC Bennett remained premier of British Columbia for 20 years from 1952-1972.

You guys can’t have it both ways :


- We want to restrict development for a “Greenbelt”

- We want to build more houses


You have to choose and it seems like you guys have chosen option 1 , so then you have to live with the consequences of that policy decision

I don't care that much for the Greenbelt, but the way to develop it shouldn't be by giving exclusive access to the land to donors and close friends of Cabinet ministers (under the argument of speed), it should be open.

[MaxQue]

In the other big news in Canada, Doug Ford has admitted he made a mistake and will not remove the land from the Greenbelt for development.

History lesson: Conceding mistakes is how WAC Bennett remained premier of British Columbia for 20 years from 1952-1972.

You guys can’t have it both ways :


- We want to restrict development for a “Greenbelt”

- We want to build more houses


You have to choose and it seems like you guys have chosen option 1 , so then you have to live with the consequences of that policy decision

Why not build small commuter towns just on the edges of the greenbelt ?

Already in process.

[MaxQue]

A reminder that the Speaker is mostly independent there, it's not an US style-Speaker, so it is not an efficient attack on Trudeau and the Liberals.

[MaxQue]

There is an EKOS poll with CPC lead of 20.  I wonder what the LPC numbers will look like after the "Nazi bounce"

There might not be not much of one.

In Quebec, the Bloc was doing theur usual media tour putting 100% of the blame on the President, saying that, for once, it wasn't Trudeau fault in any way and accusing the Conservatives of lying for electoral reasons on that issue.

[MaxQue]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/yaroslav-hunka-poland-minister-extradite-1.6978266

Poland is also drumming up election baiting and wants to extradite Hunka. He probably deserves it but unlike a concentration  camp guard there isn't enough proof yet IMO.

Would Canada accept Poland’s deportation request for this Nazi? Or will they protect him since he’s long been a Canadian citizen at this point?

Given his age and current court delays (under Canadian law, even if Canada agrees, they still need a judge to agree), it's more likely that he will die before the process is completed, which may have weight in the decision to start the process at all.

[MaxQue]

Seems that nobody is ready for a Speaker election (has been scheduled for October 3rd) and all the deputy chairs are running for Speaker, so the parties had to find a way around to be able to sit until then.

The Dean of Parliament (who will chair the election on Tuesday awyways), Louis Plamondon (Bloc) is the interim Speaker until then. Obviously, some ROC people are rather outraged by that.

[MaxQue]

University of Calgary investigates Nazi-style march through student residence

What is going on up there Canada? Is everything okay?

Why do you think Conservatives had a freak-out last week when the government proposed to publish the confidential appendix to the 80's report about Neo-Nazi immigration?

Hint: most of that immigration moved to the Prairies.

[MaxQue]

University of Calgary investigates Nazi-style march through student residence

What is going on up there Canada? Is everything okay?

Why do you think Conservatives had a freak-out last week when the government proposed to publish the confidential appendix to the 80's report about Neo-Nazi immigration?

Hint: most of that immigration moved to the Prairies.

Yet somehow the descendants of that immigration ended up in the Liberal cabinet and as Trudeau's Deputy PM (aka Chrystia Freeland).

Well, she grew in Alberta, so that tracks. It's also already known.

[MaxQue]

Also a reminder that we were heavily pressured by the UK government into taking some.

[MaxQue]

In addition to Champagne, I've heard Mark Carney and Melanie Joly as possible successors. I can't see Carney taking over a sinking ship though.

I'm lost at why Joly's career has advanced at much as it has. Wasn't she embarrassed on a French news show as Heritage Minister, and in the aftermath of that she went from "Minister responsible for the Federal Economic Development Initiative for Northern Ontario" direct to "Minister of Foreign Affairs" a few months before the Russians invaded Ukraine. If you want to say "she deserves this", fine, tell me why.

She was imcompetent as Heritage minister and a laughingstock here in Quebec.
She did, however, saw that the Quebec Liberal campaign was collasping in 2021 and proposed ideas to fix, took over (from utterly useless David Lametti) and stopped the Liberals from losing multiple seats in Quebec in that election. She was then rewarded with the position of Foreign Affairs minister, where she does a way better job (my center-left Quebec Nationalist family actually think she is doing a good job, which is rare praise from them about a Liberal politician).

[MaxQue]

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada-to-limit-study-permits-for-international-students-raise-financial-requirement/article_0b973e50-9521-11ee-b0ba-5b0c543a06c1.html
Canada to finally do something to curb international "students" a tiny amount.

Well, that's pretty much the most they can do without getting in an huge fight with provincial government.

[MaxQue]

lmao Quebec

December 7: Trudeau appoints the first Indigenous lieutenant governor

December 8: National Assembly unanimously votes to abolish the office of lieutenant governor

(it’s probably just unfortunate timing, it was a QS motion after all, but Quebec nationalism does have a huge blind spot when it comes to First Nations)

From what I understand, QS problem with it is "Trudeau appoints" more than anything else.
They call for the position to be renamed and elected by the Assembly or in some other way.