UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[CumbrianLefty]

The question that Leavers are cherry-picking is "And if Britain has not agreed a deal by April 12th
and the European Union refused to grant a further extension, what do you think should happen?" to which the answer was No Deal 44%, Remain 42%, Don't Know 13%.  Note that this is in the context of the EU refusing to grant an extension.

Replying with "don't know" is the equivalent of not voting; i.e. those people don't count.

That isn't my objection.  My objection is to the fact that people who are making a fuss about this are ignoring the framing and the context of the question; this is Opinion Polling 101: these things matter.

Exactly, this was close to push polling.

Another poll from YouGov since, using different wording, shows "support" for no deal significantly lower.

[Blair]

All polling relating to Brexit is useless, other than as a signal of how easy it is to change people's asnwer by framing the question.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Donald Tusk is planning to propose a Article 50 "flextension" of one year with the option for the UK to leave the EU at any given time during that period once Parliament has passed some form of Brexit deal. This propsal would require the UK to participate in the EP elections though.

[YL]

Updated composition of the Commons following Newport West:

Con 312 + 1 Deputy Speaker
Lab 244 + 2 Deputy Speakers
SNP 35
Independent 22
Lib Dem 11
DUP 10
Sinn Féin 7
Plaid 4
Green 1
Speaker 1

Excluding SF, the Speaker and Deputies, who don't vote (except in casting vote situations) Con+DUP have 322 out of 639, a working majority of 5.

The Independents are broken down as 11 TIG, 6 non-TIG ex-Labour (Austin, Field, Lewis, O'Mara, Onasanya, Woodcock), 2 suspended Labour (Hopkins, Williamson), 1 ex-LD (Lloyd), 1 non-TIG ex-Tory (Boles) and one elected as Independent (Hermon).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Theresa May is going to ask for an "flextension" until June 30, conceding that the UK may have to participate in the EP elections:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/05/donald-tusk-will-tell-eu-to-back-brexit-flextension-for-uk

Question is now how the European Council is gonna react to it. Last time May had ultimately to accept anything that EU was willing to offer her, so her request doesn't necessarily mean much aside from her wish to not have a no-deal Brexit on April 12. The June 30 date (much earlier than Tusk's 2020 date) is more intended to appease the "Leavers" in her own cabinet it seems.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Theresa May is going to ask for an "flextension" until June 30, conceding that the UK may have to participate in the EP elections:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/05/donald-tusk-will-tell-eu-to-back-brexit-flextension-for-uk

Question is now how the European Council is gonna react to it. Last time May had ultimately to accept anything that EU was willing to offer her, so her request doesn't necessarily mean much aside from her wish to not have a no-deal Brexit on April 12. The June 30 date (much earlier than Tusk's 2020 date) is more intended to appease the "Leavers" in her own cabinet it seems.

May: "The printer broke, the roof was leaking, and so on"
EU: "You've had over 2 years already!"

[CumbrianLefty]

June 30 is a typical May "compromise" which satisfies neither side really.

Unless we no deal in the next week or two (increasingly unlikely) the UK is very likely staying in until at least the end of this year.

[Silent Hunter]

June 30 is a typical May "compromise" which satisfies neither side really.

Unless we no deal in the next week or two (increasingly unlikely) the UK is very likely staying in until at least the end of this year.

I'd personally agree. Tusk is supporting an extension and his views carry great weight with the EU27.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Personally I think that either a no-deal Brexit or the UK remaining in the EU for good are the most likely outcomes at this point. And considering that a majority of Parliament has made it clear that a no-deal Brexit is their least preferred option a continued a EU membership may even a bit likelier now, unless a "accidental" no-deal Brexit happens due to the tactical brinkmanship of the various factions involved. Until Article 50 is actually revoked for good we still have a long and difficult process before us during which many things could go wrong. The European Council also remains a wild card since we don't know if and when Macron will start to push for kicking out the EU no matter what.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All polling relating to Brexit is useless, other than as a signal of how easy it is to change people's asnwer by framing the question.

Though this in itself tells us a lot.

[CumbrianLefty]

The talks between the PM and Labour seem to have collapsed.

May totally inflexible in all significant respects apparently, still clinging to her near dead "deal".

For how long, O lord, how long??

[Silent Hunter]

We're of course just getting the Labour PoV from this. Not surprised May can't make any meaningful compromise; well over half her party would never back it.

[CumbrianLefty]

We're of course just getting the Labour PoV from this. Not surprised May can't make any meaningful compromise; well over half her party would never back it.

The accounts of her reading from a pre-prepared script sound depressingly believable, though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

We're of course just getting the Labour PoV from this. Not surprised May can't make any meaningful compromise; well over half her party would never back it.

I guess this could be considered a preview of what will happen with the EU next.

May: I want an extension until June 30! My strategy: Holding a fourth meaningful vote on my Brexit deal in Parliament. This time it will pass, I promise.

EU: You can either have a no-deal Brexit now or an extension until March 2020 with participation in the EP elections. Take it or leave it.

[AndyHogan14]

It seems to me that Labour should jump on a confirmatory referendum on May's deal.

Remain vs. May's deal...I think we know how that would turn out. 😁

[Silent Hunter]

It seems to me that Labour should jump on a confirmatory referendum on May's deal.

Remain vs. May's deal...I think we know how that would turn out. 😁

Exactly, which is why the Tories won't agree with it.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The actual situation:  Britain is effed.  Or at least the Tories.

British people: "meeehhhh... sh**t'll buff out.  They'll fix it.  Right?  Right, guys?"

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

De Gaulle was always right about the idea of British membership in the European Community.

[AndyHogan14]

It seems to me that Labour should jump on a confirmatory referendum on May's deal.

Remain vs. May's deal...I think we know how that would turn out. 😁

Exactly, which is why the Tories won't agree with it.

But if that’s May’s offer to Labour, then I see a narrow chance of it getting through the Commons with Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, and SNP votes. It would destroy the Tory party, but maybe May just doesn’t care about the ERG and their ilk in her party any more.

[Blair]

Yep but she’s not offering it.

[Silent Hunter]

There's no guarantee that the next Tory PM would uphold any deal made by May; the Political Declaration is non-binding, a confirmatory referendum could be ignored because that's 'not binding' (a common refrain of Remainers) even if it was allowed to take place.

This is a mess on every level.

[AndyHogan14]

There's no guarantee that the next Tory PM would uphold any deal made by May; the Political Declaration is non-binding, a confirmatory referendum could be ignored because that's 'not binding' (a common refrain of Remainers) even if it was allowed to take place.

This is a mess on every level.

While that is a distinct possibility; unless there is a Toryslide in the next General Election, they should still be able to cobble together enough Tory rebel, Labour, SNP, and Lib Dem MPs to force the government's hand if they are ignoring the result of the confirmatory referendum.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Forgive my ignorance if this is (as I suspect) a silly question, but would a customs union solely between the UK and Ireland, as opposed to between the UK and the whole EU, ever have been possible/could it ever have been on the table?

[AndyHogan14]

Forgive my ignorance if this is (as I suspect) a silly question, but would a customs union solely between the UK and Ireland, as opposed to between the UK and the whole EU, ever have been possible/could it ever have been on the table?

It would have to be with the whole of the EU because Ireland is part of the EU's customs union and single market. Before they joined the EU, the UK and Ireland had a customs union and common travel area (which is why neither country is part of Schengen), but now, there would be no way to have a customs union with just Ireland unless they were to leave the EU as well (extremely unlikely and quite possibly insane).

[Silent Hunter]

The UK and Ireland didn't have a customs union before they joined the EEC together in 1973; the customs posts on the border were themselves not closed until the Single Market was created in 1992.