UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[YL]

Richard Harrington (Con, Watford) appears to have resigned as a government minister.

As have Steve Brine (Winchester) and Alistair Burt (North East Bedfordshire).

The Government lost the vote on the Letwin amendment (indicative votes) by 329 to 302, with 30 Tories (including all three of the above, which is why they resigned) voting for the amendment but 8 Labour MPs voting with the Government.

The Government won the vote on the Beckett amendment which was meant to require a vote before No Deal by 314 to 311.  Details of who voted each way still to come, but I bet those Labour MPs who keep voting with the Government saved their bacon again.

(Indeed: 8 Labour MPs voted with the Government on Beckett.  Not actually the same 8.)

[jaichind]

The House of Commons voted 329 to 302 late on Monday to strip power away from May over what happens next.

[Silent Hunter]

The main motion as amended passed 327 to 300.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The only reason May was able to cling onto the premiership is no one likes the thought of touching a rooting corpse.

[CumbrianLefty]

The only reason May was able to cling onto the premiership is no one likes the thought of touching a rooting corpse.

Cynics are suggesting the "coup" only filled the Sunday paper front pages in order to distract from the huge pro-EU demo on Saturday. But it is possible the mere talk of it has been enough to make no deal significantly less likely.

[Sestak]

Hang on, what are actually the repercussions of this vote?

[Oryxslayer]

Hang on, what are actually the repercussions of this vote?

Could be none to a ton. There vote was to strip power for Wednesday and to hold indicative votes then. But it is likely that nothing gets a majority via indicative votes besides meaningless statements like 'No leaving without a deal', so the UK is back to square one. But, if something does get passed...

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Here come dat general election.

[Blair]

The only reason May was able to cling onto the premiership is no one likes the thought of touching a rooting corpse.

Cynics are suggesting the "coup" only filled the Sunday paper front pages in order to distract from the huge pro-EU demo on Saturday. But it is possible the mere talk of it has been enough to make no deal significantly less likely.

I really don't get this argument- it's not as if it's 1925 where the only way to get news if you missed the radio was the papers.

Almost everyone would have either seen footage of the march on the Internet, the evening news, the radio news or seen it on the Sunday programs.

It only really distracted among the 5,000 or so people who obsessively follow politics, and those people already would have spoken endlessly about the march. It's hardly as if the Sunday Times, and Sunday Mail are the only news source...

[Helsinkian]

Apparently Rees-Mogg is now supporting May's deal.

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently Rees-Mogg is now supporting May's deal.

Door. Stable. Horse. Bolted.

[brucejoel99]

Apparently Rees-Mogg is now supporting May's deal.

Truly, the ERG's Grand Wizard at his grandest.

[Sestak]

Apparently Rees-Mogg is now supporting May's deal.

Waits, so is passage now actually on the table?

[Silent Hunter]

Nope, the DUP aren't supporting it. The ERG is not a unified group.

[Tintrlvr]

Nope, the DUP aren't supporting it. The ERG is not a unified group.

But there are enough Labour Yes votes that it could pass if the ERG gets on board even without the DUP.

[YL]

Nope, the DUP aren't supporting it. The ERG is not a unified group.

But there are enough Labour Yes votes that it could pass if the ERG gets on board even without the DUP.

This is very doubtful.

It lost by 149 last time, so 75 minds need to change.  There are 10 DUP MPs and 75 Tories who voted against the deal; there may also be a handful of Labour MPs who will consider voting for it, though all evidence is that the number of these is consistently exaggerated.

But 6 of those 75 Tories are Remainers (Bebb, Greening, Grieve, Gyimah, J. Johnson, Lee; maybe more, as I don't have a full knowledge of Tory MPs' positions).  So without the DUP it looks pretty hopeless for the deal; even with them it's struggling, as there seem to be a handful of Leave Tories who just will not back it whatever.

[Pericles]

Boris seems to have just flipped on May's deal. This could be big.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/26/brexit-government-may-ignore-result-of-indicative-votes-process-says-hancock-live-news

[Silent Hunter]

The thing is, that by the time any Canada deal is done (and in practice many goods would remain EU standards compliant), the Tories are likely to be out of government... and it would still need an open border in ireland.

[Pericles]

The thing is, that by the time any Canada deal is done (and in practice many goods would remain EU standards compliant), the Tories are likely to be out of government... and it would still need an open border in ireland.

The point isn't a consistent and logical argument, just one that seems to work so they have a fig-leaf to cover up the real reason would be that they think it's May's deal vs no Brexit and so they're choosing May's deal from that.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

What's disgusting is that their rationale for supporting the deal is "we'll just undo it anyway if it passes". If I was the EU I would actually think twice about ratifying the deal if it passes with only Tory votes.

[Pericles]

16 options have apparently been tabled for the indicative votes so far, though Bercow will likely whittle them down.

[Pericles]

Tories fight like rats in a sack to hang on to the hard Brexit dream

[Pericles]

Jacob Rees Mogg is now backing Theresa May's Brexit deal.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6853561/Key-Eurosceptic-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-says-Theresa-Mays-deal.html

Jacob Rees-Mogg today urges hardline Eurosceptics to back Theresa May or face losing Brexit altogether.

Writing in the Daily Mail, he says fellow Leavers have to face the ‘awkward reality’ that Remainers will thwart the 2016 referendum result unless the EU withdrawal agreement is passed.

Mr Rees-Mogg admits that his change of heart will prompt accusations of treachery from some of his followers.

But he says the Prime Minister’s plan is now the only way to ensure Britain leaves the EU.

‘I apologise for changing my mind,’ he writes. ‘By doing so I will be accused of infirmity of purpose by some and treachery by others.


‘I have come to this view because the numbers in Parliament make it clear that all the other potential outcomes are worse and an awkward reality needs to be faced.’

His intervention came as the number of Eurosceptics reluctantly backing Mrs May threatened to turn from a trickle into a flood.

Seven Conservative MPs who voted against her plan earlier this month yesterday said they were changing their minds.

And last night Boris Johnson gave the strongest hint yet that he could also fall into line, saying: ‘If we vote it down again there is an appreciable and growing sense we will not leave at all. That is the risk.’

Former Tory leader and Eurosceptic Iain Duncan Smith said last night there was now a good chance of Mrs May winning the ‘meaningful’ vote.

[CumbrianLefty]

Even if the ERG swing en masse behind the deal (unlikely in itself) that will likely just prompt others on the anti hard Brexit wing of the Tories to withhold their support. After all, they have a real chance of something more to their liking being passed now.

[Blair]

And the DUP as it stands aren't shifting; you still have 20 or so who will most likely never vote for the deal, along with 7-8 remainers who will keep voting against it.