UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Pericles]

There are reports that a large part of the Cabinet is finally in revolt, and planning to secure May's resignation next week. Among other things, the Whips have alledgedly told her she has to go, the 1922 Committee may be considering a non-binding vote of confidence, and within the Cabinet there's talk of installing a unity candidate as a caretaker PM to secure a long extension and preside over a leadership contest in a few months.

Some reports say David Lidington could be the "unity "candidate, others say it could be Michael Gove.

Seems to be becoming a factional divide with Gove as the Brexit candidate vs soft Brexit supporter Lidington. It's a fast moving situation though so this could be out of date very soon.

[Blair]

There are reports that a large part of the Cabinet is finally in revolt, and planning to secure May's resignation next week. Among other things, the Whips have alledgedly told her she has to go, the 1922 Committee may be considering a non-binding vote of confidence, and within the Cabinet there's talk of installing a unity candidate as a caretaker PM to secure a long extension and preside over a leadership contest in a few months.

Some reports say David Lidington could be the "unity "candidate, others say it could be Michael Gove.

Seems to be becoming a factional divide with Gove as the Brexit candidate vs soft Brexit supporter Lidington. It's a fast moving situation though so this could be out of date very soon.

Spoke too soon as the ERG are already attacking Gove.

No way he could be a caretaker though as he wants the top job full time.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Here come dat general election.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

But obviously the idea of couping May should make absolutely zero sense to any vaguely sentient member of cabinet when one considers that they have no mechanism to force her out if she refuses to resign. And even if she did, they have no agreed upon candidate. And even if they had an agreed upon candidate it's impossible to see how they wouldn't split the party or even command support from the membership...like, this is the absolute worst example of ministers playing leadership politics instead of actually grappling with the political realities facing the government and country.

[Pericles]

Here come dat general election.

It's still not in the interests of the Tories though who'd be better off clinging on rather than risking PM Corbyn.

[Silent Hunter]

I'd imagine most people outside the country have never heard of David Lidington. He's Deputy Prime Minister in all but name; some PMs specifically allocate the title, some don't.

Privately educated, PhD at Cambridge (Sidney Sussex), University Challenge winner with his college back in 1979, MP since 1992 and with a face rather good for cartoonists:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Lidington#/media/File:Official_portrait_of_Mr_David_Lidington_crop_2.jpg

[CumbrianLefty]

But obviously the idea of couping May should make absolutely zero sense to any vaguely sentient member of cabinet when one considers that they have no mechanism to force her out if she refuses to resign. And even if she did, they have no agreed upon candidate. And even if they had an agreed upon candidate it's impossible to see how they wouldn't split the party or even command support from the membership...like, this is the absolute worst example of ministers playing leadership politics instead of actually grappling with the political realities facing the government and country.

But if, as recent reports suggest, she is prepared to plunge this country into the abyss of no deal rather than compromise with parliament - then what exactly is the alternative?

Stopping that currently takes priority over all else IMO.

[IceAgeComing]

Is it worth mentioning that petition now has over 4 million signatures?

It only takes 100,000 to have a referendum here, and even factoring in population differences...

100,000 signatures only guarantees that Parliament will consider the petition in a debate, not that a national referendum will take place lol

He's talking about the laws in Switzerland there, not the UK ones.

[CumbrianLefty]

The political damage would be too great, really.

People making comparisons with Labour in mid 2016 ignore some key differences:

1) most obviously, Corbyn was in opposition not government;
2) Not all his SC walked out, some key figures stayed loyal enabling him to hang on;
3) maybe most fundamentally, he never owed his position to MPs in the first place - rather the party membership. Don't forget, May has never been voted for by a single Tory party member who is not an MP - another illustration of how "coronations" are rarely a good idea in the long run?

[Silent Hunter]

3. Agree. A full leadership contest would have exposed her delivery flaws and allowed them to be worked on ahead of a general election.

[CumbrianLefty]

3. Agree. A full leadership contest would have exposed her delivery flaws and allowed them to be worked on ahead of a general election.

Brown also came to regret not having a proper contest in 2007, of course.

[Lechasseur]

But obviously the idea of couping May should make absolutely zero sense to any vaguely sentient member of cabinet when one considers that they have no mechanism to force her out if she refuses to resign. And even if she did, they have no agreed upon candidate. And even if they had an agreed upon candidate it's impossible to see how they wouldn't split the party or even command support from the membership...like, this is the absolute worst example of ministers playing leadership politics instead of actually grappling with the political realities facing the government and country.

Agreed, I think May is the closest thing the Tories have right now to a figure who's more or less acceptable to both Remainer and Leaver Tories. Anyone else would just make the divisions worse.

[CumbrianLefty]

But obviously the idea of couping May should make absolutely zero sense to any vaguely sentient member of cabinet when one considers that they have no mechanism to force her out if she refuses to resign. And even if she did, they have no agreed upon candidate. And even if they had an agreed upon candidate it's impossible to see how they wouldn't split the party or even command support from the membership...like, this is the absolute worst example of ministers playing leadership politics instead of actually grappling with the political realities facing the government and country.

Agreed, I think May is the closest thing the Tories have right now to a figure who's more or less acceptable to both Remainer and Leaver Tories. Anyone else would just make the divisions worse.

That was the case in 2016, but she is arguably now equally mistrusted by both sides?

[brucejoel99]

Is it worth mentioning that petition now has over 4 million signatures?

It only takes 100,000 to have a referendum here, and even factoring in population differences...

100,000 signatures only guarantees that Parliament will consider the petition in a debate, not that a national referendum will take place lol

He's talking about the laws in Switzerland there, not the UK ones.

Ohh ok gotcha, my bad

[Zinneke]

3. Agree. A full leadership contest would have exposed her delivery flaws and allowed them to be worked on ahead of a general election.

Because at the time the country didnt really need a deliverer of slogans a la Blair, Cameron, etc. May was seen as a safe pair of hands.

Also would the tory membership have backed Leadsom? I think she would have faired far worse.

[CumbrianLefty]

Also would the tory membership have backed Leadsom? I think she would have faired far worse.

Not likely, but possible.

[DINGO Joe]

I admit I'm not fully engaged with the ins and outs of Brexit and British politics, but at this point it seems that anyone who was truly capable of replacing May would have to be utterly daft to do so.  It's like being asked to hold a bag with TNT while they drop a piano on you.

[Sestak]

I admit I'm not fully engaged with the ins and outs of Brexit and British politics, but at this point it seems that anyone who was truly capable of replacing May would have to be utterly daft to do so.  It's like being asked to hold a bag with TNT while they drop a piano on you.

Yeah pretty much. Having the inevitable blame magnetism of leadership at this point in time is more of a curse than anything.

[Pericles]

I admit I'm not fully engaged with the ins and outs of Brexit and British politics, but at this point it seems that anyone who was truly capable of replacing May would have to be utterly daft to do so.  It's like being asked to hold a bag with TNT while they drop a piano on you.

Yeah pretty much. Having the inevitable blame magnetism of leadership at this point in time is more of a curse than anything.

Yes I remember Andrew Rawnsley said May would be the "human sponge" for the Tories taking all the blame for Brexit, indeed why waste a good PM on Brexit when they could just let a tainted one take all the hits? Once the human sponge is no longer needed Tories will quickly and ruthlessly get rid of May.

[GoTfan]

Seems like Brexit has turned into a version of the Halo Rings for the British government.

[Lechasseur]

https://news.sky.com/story/may-faces-cabinet-coup-as-ministers-warn-she-has-days-left-11673877

This seems very similar to what happened to Thatcher in 1990, Theresa May is toast as PM. It looks like David Lidington and Michael Gove are the favorites to replace her.

[Zinneke]

Let's remember the real scandal here - the 1 billion bribe to a party caught in a major corruption scandal so that they could support the government - only for them to potentially cock up the entire process.

 They should use this opportunity. The entire British territorial, constitutional and political selection model has to be revised. Federalism, alternative vote, and less tossers in parliament.

[Lechasseur]

Let's remember the real scandal here - the 1 billion bribe to a party caught in a major corruption scandal so that they could support the government - only for them to potentially cock up the entire process.

 They should use this opportunity. The entire British territorial, constitutional and political selection model has to be revised. Federalism, alternative vote, and less tossers in parliament.

I don't get why the British left seems to be so in love with the alternative vote. It's not going to get more Lib Dems or Greens (or at least not a substantial amount more) in parliament, it will just make sure that the Tories and Labour will always have at least about 45% of seats like in Australia.

[Silent Hunter]

The thing is, the DUP haven't even got the money - which was extra government spending for Northern Ireland that sorely needs it - because it needs an active Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly. Also, NI can't properly plan for a No Deal unless Stormont starts up again or Direct Rule is imposed.

[Silent Hunter]

Richard Harrington (Con, Watford) appears to have resigned as a government minister.