DENMARK - 5 June 2019 election

[Diouf]

Interesting to see whether there will be any resignations on election night. Liberal Alliance leader and founder Anders Samuelsen is the longest-sitting party leader currently, and after a heavy defeat and a significant loss of faith in him personally, he is perhaps the best candidate.

[DavidB.]

Seems like DR has a new prognosis, with S up now and Stram Kurs in.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

With 6.2% counted, they should be able to make prognoses soon instead of showing the exit poll. Zealand and Western Jutland multi-member constituencies look very interesting as Tough Line and Christian Democrats could get constituency seats there, even if they don't reach 2%.

Can you recommend some website to follow the results?

[Oryxslayer]

Said new prognosis.

[Diouf]

Yep, DR with Tough Line on 2.0%, Christian Democrats on 1.9%. Liberal Alliance only on 2.4%. New Right on 2.5%. Tight threshold dance.

[Diouf]

With 6.2% counted, they should be able to make prognoses soon instead of showing the exit poll. Zealand and Western Jutland multi-member constituencies look very interesting as Tough Line and Christian Democrats could get constituency seats there, even if they don't reach 2%.

Can you recommend some website to follow the results?

KMD has official results: https://kmdvalg.dk/Main/Home/FV

But they don't aggregate on multi-member constituency level, it seems. Which is quite bad.

DR is doing prognosis now. I guess TV2 will soon.

Dr.dk stream: https://www.dr.dk/live/nyheder/live/2872093
tv2.dk stream: http://nyheder.tv2.dk/2019-06-05-danskerne-gaar-til-valg

DR should at least not be geoblocked.

[DavidB.]

Would be a big relief if the Social Democrats are actually gaining compared to 2015, good for the optics. And I want the Christian Democrats out and Paludan in, but I guess he's got his constituency seat either way.

[Diouf]

Interesting test for the prognosis model calibrations that Social Democrats will win votes in towns and rural areas, while losing votes in the cities. We don't have that many of the latter results yet.

[Diouf]

First complete nomination district in. Tønder in Southern Jutland.

[DavidB.]

According to the prognosis SK is at 2% yet doesn't have 4, but only 2 seats. I guess 2% is then rounded up and it's actually lower, but they have two candidates (among those Paludan) winning constituency seats...

[Diouf]

According to the prognosis SK is at 2% yet doesn't have 4, but only 2 seats. I guess 2% is then rounded up and it's actually lower, but they have two candidates (among those Paludan) winning constituency seats...

Sounds like a mistake. If Paludan wins a constituency seat, they will get the number of seats that their nationwide percentage deserves. On 1.9%, that would very likely be 4 seats. Perhaps 3. But not just 2.

[Tender Branson]

How did Glostrup vote ?

My company’s biggest Danish customer (who I regularly ship our stuff to) is from there ...

[DavidB.]

DF keep losing in the prognosis, now at the same level of Radikale... SK now at 4 seats.

[Diouf]

Liberal Alliance down at 2.3% in the prognosis

[Diouf]

Red-Green Alliance having a low key bad night. Expected result at 6.3%, going 1.5% down on their 2015 result.

[Diouf]

Turnout could end up lower than in 2015. In Tønder nomination district, turnout was 81.04%, compared to 84.65% in 2015

[Diouf]

LA at 2.2% now. Yikes. And I'm not sure they have as big a chance as others of a constituency seat. Northern Zealand would be the best guess, but I wouldn't think that could save them.

[DavidB.]

SK got 2.1% in Tårnby, a residential area in South Copenhagen. Seems low. DF got 27% last time and 11.3% this time here. Guessing most DF2015 vote switchers went to V.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Anyone have a link to a colored map result?

[Diouf]

SK got 2.1% in Tårnby, a residential area in South Copenhagen. Seems low. DF got 27% last time and 11.3% this time here. Guessing most DF2015 vote switchers went to V.

Yes, the Liberals certainly seem to picking up more of the DPP leavers than what has been expected for long. Probably some of these voters who went the opposite way in 2015.

[DavidB.]

Turnout could end up lower than in 2015. In Tønder nomination district, turnout was 81.04%, compared to 84.65% in 2015

Turnout seems to be lower almost everywhere. Disappointing...

[mileslunn]

Turnout could end up lower than in 2015. In Tønder nomination district, turnout was 81.04%, compared to 84.65% in 2015

Turnout seems to be lower almost everywhere. Disappointing...

Advanced voting seems to be more common everywhere.  With more sophisticated voter identification, parties tend to put a lot of effort into getting their supporters out to the polls ahead of election day so probably most committed voters are showing up early while softer ones waiting until e-day.

[Diouf]

DR's result site allows you to look at results per multimember constituency:

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/resultater/folketingsvalg

Christian Democrats prognosis in Western Jutland on 5.3%, which would be enough for a constituency seat.

[DavidB.]

DR's result site allows you to look at results per multimember constituency:

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/resultater/folketingsvalg

Christian Democrats prognosis in Western Jutland on 5.3%, which would be enough for a constituency seat.

And SK at 2.9% in Zealand, which apparently isn't enough. How much would they need?

[Diouf]

Klaus Riskær Pedersen announced that he is abolishing his party since they aren't getting into parliament.