DENMARK - 5 June 2019 election

[DL]

DR's exit poll shows 90-75, not sure if it's the same one.

and that doesnt count the four Greenland/Faroe seats that are mostly Red right?

[Walmart_shopper]

Looks like a slight V overperformance and a slight S underperformance, then?

By a percentage point in both directions. But nothing really surprising at all.

[Diouf]

DR exit poll

Social Democrats 25.3%
Liberals 20.9%
DPP 9.8%
Red-Green Alliance 8.8%
Liberal Alliance 3.0%
Alternative 3.3%
Social Liberals 8.8%
SPP 7.4%
Conservatives 5.9%
Christian Democrats 2.3%
New Right 2.0%
Klaus Riskær Pedersen 0.7%
Tough Line 1.8%

[mileslunn]

DR's exit poll shows 90-75, not sure if it's the same one.

and that doesnt count the four Greenland/Faroe seats that are mostly Red right?

Greenland is probably red, don't know about Faeroes, I think they often tend to vote opposite of who is in power locally so went red last time as Blues governed Faeroe Islands, but might go blue this time as Reds governing Faeroe Islands, someone from there could weigh in.

[jaichind]

Rumor sent to me: 51.7% red, 48.3% blue. Taking it with a ton of salt, but if this is true, it's probably amazing news for either V or DF and S has underperformed.

If true total under-performance  for the Reds. I would think they will be above 54% at least

Yes, still these exit polls would seem to indicate that the Reds lost some ground since the Euro elections.
It would appear that the rumor was off by a lot.
 

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1136334497149071360?s=21

[mileslunn]

Looks like a slight V overperformance and a slight S underperformance, then?

Usually right tend to overperform polls and left under, my guess is easier to poll urban areas than rural especially smaller communities as well as older voters more likely to show up than younger albeit turnout is high enough less of an issue.  Mind you Danish People's Party underperformed so perhaps some went over to Venestre and both Socialist and Red-Green Alliance seem to have done a bit better, but still within margin of error.  Now if as big an error as in Australia, it should be a long night.  I believe it is around 54% reds to 46% Blues.

[lilTommy]

DR's exit poll shows 90-75, not sure if it's the same one.

Why are Alternative and New right outside the blocs? They are being listed separately (6 and 4 seats)

[Sestak]

DR's exit poll shows 90-75, not sure if it's the same one.

Why are Alternative and New right outside the blocs? They are being listed separately (6 and 4 seats)

Yeah I'm not sure why they did that.

[Sestak]

Rumor sent to me: 51.7% red, 48.3% blue. Taking it with a ton of salt, but if this is true, it's probably amazing news for either V or DF and S has underperformed.

From YouGov.

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1136335636728877057?s=21

[jaichind]

So I guess some media counts Å as part of the Red Bloc and some do not. 

[Diouf]

DR's exit poll shows 90-75, not sure if it's the same one.

Why are Alternative and New right outside the blocs? They are being listed separately (6 and 4 seats)

The blocs are not as clear cut as previously. I think the broadcasters have had some difficulties in figuring out how to show it. Both New Right and Tough Line has said they only support a PM, which wants to fulfill their immigration demands and thereby leaving international conventions and ECHR. Løkke has refused this clearly, so their assumption is that Løkke can't use them to build a majority.
It is less clear cut on the left wing side. Alternative leader Uffe Elbæk has said his first priority as PM is himself, and if that doesn't happen they will support someone who is in line with their policies. It seems very likely that this would be Mette Frederiksen, but I guess you can't 100% rule out that they won't support her. Social Liberals and Red-Green Alliance have also talked about different demands to support Frederiksen, but the standard expectations is probably that they will all fall in line behind Frederiksen (even if it could take some time).

[Diouf]

The tiny results are already coming in.

Again worth reminding that there are three different ways to cross the threshold. These exit polls only look at the 2% threshold nationally in their seat projections. Hopefully, their prognoses later in the evening will also look at the two other ways, which could become very relevant.

[Walmart_shopper]

It would seem that the Greens and Ø would have more pull in the next government given the relative strength of their performance and the so-so performance of S. I wonder if that would force S into a less populistic approach to immigration.

[jaichind]

Most of the tiny results in from rural areas look very bad for O

[Diouf]

First signs for Christian Democrats in Ringkøbing show the Kristian Andersen effect. With 7.70% counted, the party increases by 7.9% from 5.4% to 13.3% in the counted areas.

[Walmart_shopper]

First signs for Christian Democrats in Ringkøbing show the Kristian Andersen effect. With 7.70% counted, the party increases by 7.9% from 5.4% to 13.3% in the counted areas.

What is the profile of the average Christian Democrat voters in Denmark?

[DavidB.]

It would seem that the Greens and Ø would have more pull in the next government given the relative strength of their performance and the so-so performance of S. I wonder if that would force S into a less populistic approach to immigration.

The counterargument is that DF voters moving to S and (thereby) crossing the aisle still won the Red Bloc parties a majority in this election, which wouldn't have been possible without S' rightward turn on immigration. It did cause S to lose more pro-immigration voters to parties to its left, however, which caused these parties to win too.

But if S now turns left on immigration, it will lose its credibility on immigration and it will also lose a lot of voters to DF. Frederiksen and Tesfaye also spent too much politicial credit on it to drop this.

It will make negotiations harder, though. The combination S-DF-SF isn't even close to a majority and parties like Radikale and the Red-Greens will undoubtedly try to make your argument.

[jaichind]

It would seem that the Greens and Ø would have more pull in the next government given the relative strength of their performance and the so-so performance of S. I wonder if that would force S into a less populistic approach to immigration.

That would sound like bait and switch and would end very badly for the S next election.

[Diouf]

First signs for Christian Democrats in Ringkøbing show the Kristian Andersen effect. With 7.70% counted, the party increases by 7.9% from 5.4% to 13.3% in the counted areas.

What is the profile of the average Christian Democrat voters in Denmark?

I think there have been so few, that little time has been spend on their profiles. Mostly, they live in Western Jutland. Among their candidates, they have a lot of teachers and people in some way employed in the education sector. Party leader Isabella Arendt has hit home the point about better conditions for free schools in all party debates as well. I found an older profile from 2011, that said the party was overrepresented among the young and the old. This also means that their average incomes tend to be rather low, since many of those are either students/newly employed or pensioners. And of course, they tend to be more religious than average voters.

[mileslunn]

With results so far although early and largely rural, any chance of a repeat of what happened in Australia where Blue Bloc wins?  Are they doing as well as people would expect in areas reporting or are they outperforming.

[Diouf]

Pernille Vermund the first party leader to make her adress.
Results in Southern Jutland looks quite good. Exit polls suggest national result is enough to cross the treshold.
It seems likely they win a constituency seat in Southern Jutland anyway. At 6.3% in Haderslev with 11.8% counted, at 5.1% in Aabenraa with 6.7% counted.

[Walmart_shopper]

It would seem that the Greens and Ø would have more pull in the next government given the relative strength of their performance and the so-so performance of S. I wonder if that would force S into a less populistic approach to immigration.

The counterargument is that DF voters moving to S and (thereby) crossing the aisle still won the Red Bloc parties a majority in this election, which wouldn't have been possible without S' rightward turn on immigration. It did cause S to lose more pro-immigration voters to parties to its left, however, which caused these parties to win too.

But if S now turns left on immigration, it will lose its credibility on immigration and it will also lose a lot of voters to DF. Frederiksen and Tesfaye also spent too much politicial credit on it to drop this.

It will make negotiations harder, though. The combination S-DF-SF isn't even close to a majority and parties like Radikale and the Red-Greens will undoubtedly try to make your argument.

It's definitely a tough spot politically for S. I just wonder if their coalition partners on the left will feel emboldened enough to make a big deal about the immigration policy of S. Or, if in exchange for relative silence about it, S is forced intoassive concessions to the left. I don't really know how far apart S is from the Greens or Ø,  so it may actually not be a large gap to bridge.

[Walmart_shopper]

First signs for Christian Democrats in Ringkøbing show the Kristian Andersen effect. With 7.70% counted, the party increases by 7.9% from 5.4% to 13.3% in the counted areas.

What is the profile of the average Christian Democrat voters in Denmark?

I think there have been so few, that little time has been spend on their profiles. Mostly, they live in Western Jutland. Among their candidates, they have a lot of teachers and people in some way employed in the education sector. Party leader Isabella Arendt has hit home the point about better conditions for free schools in all party debates as well. I found an older profile from 2011, that said the party was overrepresented among the young and the old. This also means that their average incomes tend to be rather low, since many of those are either students/newly employed or pensioners. And of course, they tend to be more religious than average voters.

So rural, poorer, religious young people and their grandparents? I suppose that's why they get only 2 percent of the vote, right?

[Diouf]

With 6.2% counted, they should be able to make prognoses soon instead of showing the exit poll. Zealand and Western Jutland multi-member constituencies look very interesting as Tough Line and Christian Democrats could get constituency seats there, even if they don't reach 2%.