Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[SN2903]

Currently, I'm going to play it safe and not count the USAT poll for Bullock until there is a rule clarification. Here's my chart for July:



This is my chart for the September debates, based on fundraising numbers and likelihood to meet the polling requirements (since no polls count for this one until after the June debate):

Gabbard and Yang will both make the September debate

[The Other Castro]

Gabbard and Yang will both make the September debate

Yang is in good shape given he’s already met the fundraising requirement, though we still need to see if he can hit four 2% polls in time. Gabbard, on the other hand, didn’t exactly gain that many new donors. Her donor pace may increase as the deadline gets closer, but I don’t know if I’d call it a sure thing. Also, I believe she’s only ever gotten one poll at 2%, and she will need four of them. That may be pretty difficult.

[The Other Castro]

Looking at how the field was whittled throughout the 2016 RNC debates for reference:

Debate 1: 10 main, 7 undercard (100% of original field)
-Perry drops out
Debate 2: 11 main, 4 undercard (88%)
-Walker drops out, Gilmore rejected
Debate 3: 10 main, 4 undercard (82%)
-Gilmore rejected
Debate 4: 8 main, 4 undercard (71%)
-Jindal drops out, Gilmore, Graham, Pataki rejected
Debate 5: 9 main, 4 undercard (76%)
-Graham and Pataki drop out, Gilmore rejected
Debate 6: 7 main, 3 undercard (59%)
-Paul no show
Debate 7: 7 main, 4 undercard (65%)
-Huckabee, Paul, Santorum drop out, Trump no show
Debate 8: 7 main (41%)

It wasn’t until this point, on 2/6/2016, that fewer than 10 candidates, and less than half the field, participated in a debate. We’re (reasonably) likely to reach that point during this year’s 4th debate, 5 months earlier.

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s the fallout from the new CNN poll:

On qualification for the July debate:

de Blasio up to 1% from 4 different pollsters, meaning he’s now very unlikely to be bumped out of the July debate, no matter how the DNC calculates the tiebreakers.  It’ll presumably be one out of Bullock, Bennet, and Swalwell who doesn’t make it this time.

Biden 14
Booker 14
Buttigieg 14
Harris 14
O’Rourke 14
Sanders 14
Warren 14
Klobuchar 13
Yang 12 or 13
Gillibrand 9
Castro 9
Ryan 8 or 9
Gabbard 7
Hickenlooper 7
Inslee 7
Delaney 4 (in good shape on tiebreakers because of a >1% polling average)
Williamson 4 (in good shape on tiebreakers because of donor count)
de Blasio 4 ( 8 )
Bullock 3 or 4 (3 or 4)
Bennet 3 (4)
Swalwell 3 (3)
———qualification line———
Messam 2
Gravel 1

bold = in bad shape on tiebreakers
For the candidates with polls from 3-4 pollsters, I included the number of individual polls they have, even if they're from the same pollster.  (Just in case that's how the DNC breaks ties.)

On qualification for the September debate, we now have our first poll.  Here’s who’s at 2% or more:

Biden 1
Booker 1
Buttigieg 1
Harris 1
Klobuchar 1
O’Rourke 1
Sanders 1
Warren 1

Great news for Klobuchar to squeak by at 2% here, since she’d been getting just 1% in almost every poll for a while.

[PaperKooper]

Gravel hits 55,000 donors. 

https://twitter.com/MikeGravel/status/1145467048186777603

[The Other Castro]

With the two post-debate polls (CNN and Suffolk), I've updated my September/October chart (assuming that October will in fact have the same rules, just with a later cutoff date). Shocker, I'm moving O'Rourke out of the Safe Zone because he has shown that he is not guaranteed to always get  2%+. I'll add him back once he gets 4 qualifying polls.



No real implications for July; Swallwell and Bullock (and technically also Bennet) are below 1% in the latest USAT/Suffolk poll.

Edit: Rather than post a new chart, I've updated this chart to include the most recent Quinnipiac poll (Biden, Harris, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and Booker all got above 2%)

[The Other Castro]

Big news: Politico got clarification that the USAT/Suffolk polls WILL be rounded, so Bullock increases to 4 polls for July, and Booker increases to 3 polls for September/October. Bullock has now broken the tie, taken spot 20, and kicked out Swalwell.

https://t.co/3376by4992

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Funny how Booker is in better shape than Beto. Booker just needs 1 more poll and 20k donors, while Beto needs 3 polls.

[The Other Castro]

Mr. Morden, the DNC has finally clarified on the use of unique polls for tiebreakers.

The DNC said its first tiebreaker rule — the average of each candidate’s top three qualifying polls — will not count multiple polls from the same pollster that cover the same geography. For example, if a low-polling candidate has two Iowa polls at 2 percent from the same pollster and two national surveys from different pollsters at 1 percent, the candidate’s polling average for tiebreaker purposes would include only one of those 2-percent surveys from Iowa.

But say there are candidates still tied after the polling-average tiebreaker, the number of qualifying polls in which each candidate earned at least 1 percent in support would not take pollster or geography into consideration. Instead, all qualifying polls are counted.

So, it is in fact ALL polls, regardless of duplicates, that are used for poll counting during tiebreaks.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-we-seen-the-last-of-eric-swalwell/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[henster]

Hopeful for a max of 6-7 for the September debates. Ideally it'd be Biden, Harris, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren & Booker. They'll prob make it but I don't really care to hear from Klobuchar, Yang or Beto. Not looking forward to another 10 person debate.

[The Other Castro]

All recent polls have now been incorporated, taking into account clarifications from the DNC. Bullock is now in the 20th spot instead of Swalwell for July. Additionally, Biden, Sanders, Harris, Warren, and Buttigieg have all officially qualified for the September (and assuming October as well) debate.

Updated July debates chart:



Updated September/October debates chart:

[The Other Castro]

Lol OK I'm not going to remake my July chart for one poll since I literally just updated it, but a new Reuters poll just dropped. Though it was banned from future debates, it is still allowed for July, and folks.......Bullock gets another one! Bullock is at 1% here, and none of the other notable low polling candidates did. This brings his new total to 5, tied with Bennet, and now two polls ahead of Swalwell. Swalwell is definitely at risk, and likely to be left out barring a major turnaround.

[brucejoel99]

Lol OK I'm not going to remake my July chart for one poll since I literally just updated it, but a new Reuters poll just dropped. Though it was banned from future debates, it is still allowed for July, and folks.......Bullock gets another one! Bullock is at 1% here, and none of the other notable low polling candidates did. This brings his new total to 5, tied with Bennet, and now two polls ahead of Swalwell. Swalwell is definitely at risk, and likely to be left out barring a major turnaround.

If the reports of Swalwell's end being nigh are true, then his polls may be rendered moot well before the July debate.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

If Hickenlooper and Swalwell drop out before the next debate... and Gravel gets 10,000 more donors... he'd get the 20th slot, right?

Could happen, I guess.

[scutosaurus]

If Hickenlooper and Swalwell drop out before the next debate... and Gravel gets 10,000 more donors... he'd get the 20th slot, right?

Could happen, I guess.

Yes, unless Messam gets a 3rd qualifying poll.

[Mr. Morden]

Updated September/October debates chart:

For the September debate, amongst those in the "hopeful zone", at this point I'd say both Booker and O'Rourke are highly likely to make it.  Unless something really crazy happens, it's hard to see either of them *not* getting enough additional polls at 2% to make it.   (It's only been a week since the qualification period started, and they're already 75% and 50% of the way there respectively.) Booker then needs an additional 20,000 donors, but I guess with 2 months to go, that seems very doable.  A couple of weeks ago, I was thinking that his chances of qualifying were more in doubt, but having now gotten to 110,000 donors, he seems on track.

The others have a much more treacherous path.  Klobuchar now looks solid to get the right number of polls, but who knows where her fundraising is, since she hasn't updated us in quite a while.  So maybe she's in good shape, but we don't really know.  Yang of course is already there on donors, but nowhere on polls, though there's still a lot of time left.  Castro (unless the ABC poll is the start of a trend, but I doubt it is) and especially Gabbard seem like pretty serious long shots.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, Wikipedia lists 10 national polls and 2 Iowa polls taken since the debate.  (Most of these don’t count as qualifying polls by the DNC, but let’s just assume that they’re representative of the polls that we’ll be getting over the course of the next two months.)

Of those 12 polls, here’s how many each candidate got at least 2% in:

12: Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Sanders, Warren
9: Booker, O’Rourke
4: Castro, Klobuchar
3: Yang
0: everyone else

So if future polls are similar to this past week’s polls, then maybe Castro and Yang aren’t in such bad shape relative to Klobuchar.  Klobuchar may have simply gotten lucky that so many of her good polls from the past week were polls that the DNC counts, but maybe Castro and Yang will be luckier going forward.  OTOH, Gabbard and those below her on the list may simply have such a small level of support that it doesn’t matter which polls get counted.  They’re not going to get 2% regardless.

[Mr. Morden]

Castro hits 130,000 donors:

https://twitter.com/JulianCastro/status/1148261454581309449

I guess this is further evidence along the lines of what I said in my last post.  My previous post before that might have been too harsh on Castro's chances of making the September debate.

My current feeling for the September debate is:

essentially a lock to qualify:
Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Sanders, Warren

nearly a lock, but not quite as solid as the aforementioned five candidates:
Booker, O'Rourke

no idea, could go either way:
Castro, Klobuchar, Yang (Castro and Yang are already there on donors, but might not make it on polls; Klobuchar is almost there on polls, but might not make it on donors)

everyone else:
It's not going to happen unless they have some kind of crazy viral moment in the July debate.

[rhg2052]

no idea, could go either way:
Castro, Klobuchar, Yang (Castro and Yang are already there on donors, but might not make it on polls; Klobuchar is almost there on polls, but might not make it on donors)

I think Klobuchar will make it. She had 100,000 donors back in April, and only needs one more poll.

[ShamDam]

With Swalwell gone, Bullock's place in the second debate looks pretty secure, yes? Barring a surprise Gravelanche

[Hoosier_Nick]

With Swalwell gone, Bullock's place in the second debate looks pretty secure, yes? Barring a surprise Gravelanche

#Messamentum

[brucejoel99]

R.I.P. any chance of Gravel making the July debate...

John Hickenlooper's campaign 'reboot' includes more time in Iowa, less time spent fundraising

Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper said he has reset his presidential campaign after losing several top staffers and will be spending more time in Iowa making his case to voters face-to-face.

"I think we rebooted it," Hickenlooper told the Des Moines Register's editorial board Monday in response to a question about whether his campaign was in disarray.

"I’m going to spend more time in Iowa and more time in New Hampshire, in these early states," he said later.

Hickenlooper's Iowa visit followed a week of headlines about top staffers, including his campaign manager, departing his presidential campaign and urging him to run for Senate in Colorado. Despite the turnover, his five-person Iowa staff is still in place.

Hickenlooper said his record as mayor of Denver and governor of Colorado has shown he can deliver on Democratic priorities like universal preschool, transit and environmental regulations.

[brucejoel99]

R.I.P. any chance of Gravel making the July debate...

Marianne is now trying to help him get on the debate stage...

Marianne Williamson raising money for 2020 rival

Best-selling self-help author Marianne Williamson, who is running for the Democratic Party’s nomination in 2020, is using her platform to help raise funds for a potential election rival.

In an email sent to supporters over the weekend, Williamson asked potential donors to consider sending $1 to former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel in order to help him qualify for the next Democratic debate.

“You may not have heard of him because he hasn’t yet qualified for any of the debates,” Williamson wrote.

She noted that the senator is just 10,000 donations short of qualifying for the next debate.

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1147973482208268292

[Mr. Morden]

Reminder that we're only 5 days away from the deadline for July debate qualification.  It looks pretty unlikely that the outcome will be anything other than the same group of people qualifying as last time, except with Bullock there in place of Swalwell.  Even if, say, Messam gets another poll and makes it to three, it's not enough to beat Bullock on tiebreakers.  For Messam and Gravel (and anyone else), their best chance is to qualify via either polls or donors, and hope that we get a surprise dropout among the 20 candidates who've already qualified.  Or if either of them can manage to qualify on both polls *and* donors, then they'd beat Bullock on tiebreakers, but that seems rather unlikely with just 5 days to go.

[PaperKooper]

I got an ad on Facebook implying Gravel had reached 58,000 donors.