Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

Pedro Sánchez, the Theresa May of Spain.

Your choice at this election: Strong and Stable leadership with the Socialist Party or a coalition of chaos led by (checks notes) the Socialist party

[Chief Justice windjammer]

I like Pedro Sanchez so much. He's such a bastard!

[Lord Halifax]

Preliminary deal between PSOE and UP (English version)

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/12/inenglish/1573562718_041862.html

Caretaker Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and the leader of left-wing Unidas Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, have signed a preliminary agreement to form a coalition government after Sunday’s inconclusive repeat general election in Spain. Despite months of negotiations between the parties to strike a governing deal following the April poll, the two leaders have done this deal less than 48 hours after Sunday’s vote (...)  

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

They have no other choice but making a virtue of need.

But yes: what was the point of this strategic fiasco, Mr Sánchez?

It won't be easy, but the deal will have the numbers to pass the investiture in a second vote. ERC spokesman Gabriel Rufián said on election night that they won't block the formation of a progressive government. On paper, ERC is willing to abstain. However, the situation in Catalonia is  very turbulent and the pragmatic ERC leadership faces pressure from the Puigdemont group (JxCAT) and the far left (CUP).

If Sanchez becomes PM is it likely they can finish the process and have the votes before Christmas?

[God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams]

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

Pedro Sánchez, the Theresa May of Spain.

Your choice at this election: Strong and Stable leadership with the Socialist Party or a coalition of chaos led by (checks notes) the Socialist party

tfw you are your own Ed Miliband

[elephantower]

It seems like there's two main barriers to Sanchez getting a government by Christmas (he'll probably agree one eventually), but I have no idea how long each will take:

1. Fleshing out the details of the Podemos deal, including a distribution of ministries
2. Negotiating an abstention from the ERC

What are the chances both get done by Christmas? #1 seems pretty likely to happen in time, but ERC might take their time and push hard for concessions?

[Skye]

El País is reporting that the PNV lost a seat to the PP in Euskadi (I think it's from the province of Vizcaya). So now the PP has 89 deputies.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/13/actualidad/1573633022_648788.html

[7sergi9]

The ERE case's sentence is November 19, sanchez's will be fu**ed

[Skye]

Remember a few weeks ago when the INE reported the median individual/household income by census blocks and we were discussing how it translated to electoral results by precinct? Well, eldiario.es has posted a great article today about it!

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Vox-zonas-pobres-PP-Ciudadanos-10N_0_963104386.html

For example, this chart shows a clear correlation between, say, how the vote share for the PSOE drops steadily the higher the income percentile, or how the PP's vote share jumps dramatically in the highest income percentiles:


This one shows the overall left v. right vote as it relates to income on a national level:


And this one by autonomous community. Obviously, it's more complicated than it seems in some regions thanks to the strength of pro-independence parties (Looking at you, Catalonia and Basque Country):


Plus, a nifty precinct map that also includes income info by precinct, and also shows how the wealthier and poorer precincts vote: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPAS-Espana-pobre-elecciones-calle-10N_0_963104406.html

[Walmart_shopper]

Is Valencia basically Spain's Ohio?

[rob in cal]

Couple questions.  Is there a PP or Vox politician who calls for a hard line on immigration, but is not for  a crackdown on Catalonia?  I would think there would be someone out there whose top concern would be keeping Spain ethnically about how it is now, but wouldn't be nearly concerned about whether Catalonia moves toward independence.

Also, among the Basque and Catalonian parties do any stake out any clear positions on the rightwing when it comes to immigration policy.

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

Couple questions.  Is there a PP or Vox politician who calls for a hard line on immigration, but is not for  a crackdown on Catalonia?  I would think there would be someone out there whose top concern would be keeping Spain ethnically about how it is now, but wouldn't be nearly concerned about whether Catalonia moves toward independence.

Also, among the Basque and Catalonian parties do any stake out any clear positions on the rightwing when it comes to immigration policy.

Nope. The Spanish right is extremely well united into "the Unity of Spain" ^TM. It is hard to find individual politicians deviating much from the party line, but even then, there aren't really any politicians who want to advocate for a hard immigration policy but are more lenient on Catalonia, at least not in the Spanish right.

Closest thing I can think of is probably some people in the Basque branch of PP, particularly someone like Borja Sémper (leader of PP in San Sebastian town hall), who is indeed a moderate in the Catalan (and Basque) issue. However he is also very much anti-populist and also extremely moderate on immigration; not exactly what you are looking for. Similarly I imagine there must be some pro-immigration but anti-Catalonia politicians in the Spanish right (probably in Cs?)

As for the Catalan/Basque parties, in Catalonia JxCat would be the ones to look for regarding immigration. And in my opinion they have a lot of mixed signals. On one hand, they have attacked mayor of Barcelona Ada Colau on "law and order" a lot, claiming Barcelona is now a lawless city and what not. On the other hand, their November platform was very much to the left on immigration, even further left than PSOE's!

As for the Basque Country, PNV is probably what you are looking for. While they are still nowhere even close to being like say, Vox on immigration, they still adopt a relatively hard policy, definitely on the right and closer to PP than PSOE.

So other than PNV (and even there with some limitations), no, not really.

[Velasco]

What is CUP's relationship with Podemos? Any far left solidarity, or are they literally never going to compromise?

Podemos is something like a centrist and burgeois party for the CUP, but there is some solidarity or affinity between the Podemos far-left faction (Anticapitalistas) and the Catalan far-left separatists. Some people within Anticapitalistas is truly fascinated by the revolutionary wing of the Catalan independence movement. I recall some statement or support manifesto revoked due to pressure from the Podemos leadership.

Couple questions.  Is there a PP or Vox politician who calls for a hard line on immigration, but is not for  a crackdown on Catalonia?  I would think there would be someone out there whose top concern would be keeping Spain ethnically about how it is now, but wouldn't be nearly concerned about whether Catalonia moves toward independence.

Also, among the Basque and Catalonian parties do any stake out any clear positions on the rightwing when it comes to immigration policy.

Nope. The Spanish right is extremely well united into "the Unity of Spain" ^TM. It is hard to find individual politicians deviating much from the party line, but even then, there aren't really any politicians who want to advocate for a hard immigration policy but are more lenient on Catalonia, at least not in the Spanish right.

Closest thing I can think of is probably some people in the Basque branch of PP, particularly someone like Borja Sémper (leader of PP in San Sebastian town hall), who is indeed a moderate in the Catalan (and Basque) issue. However he is also very much anti-populist and also extremely moderate on immigration; not exactly what you are looking for. Similarly I imagine there must be some pro-immigration but anti-Catalonia politicians in the Spanish right (probably in Cs?)

As for the Catalan/Basque parties, in Catalonia JxCat would be the ones to look for regarding immigration. And in my opinion they have a lot of mixed signals. On one hand, they have attacked mayor of Barcelona Ada Colau on "law and order" a lot, claiming Barcelona is now a lawless city and what not. On the other hand, their November platform was very much to the left on immigration, even further left than PSOE's!

As for the Basque Country, PNV is probably what you are looking for. While they are still nowhere even close to being like say, Vox on immigration, they still adopt a relatively hard policy, definitely on the right and closer to PP than PSOE.

So other than PNV (and even there with some limitations), no, not really.

I would challenge the notion that PNV is "tough on immigration". I'm not implying Basque nationalists are "lenient" (there is a middle ground on such issues) but anyway. Another question is that the PNV is a broad tent party that may incorporate hardliners.

Possibly that combination between "tough on immigration" and "lenient on Catalonia" can be fpund in certain minority faction within the Catalan independence movement which has xenophobic traits. I mean, the kind of nationalists regarding people from the rest of Spain as "inferior" might be prone to support a tough stance against otherf foreigners.

Also, don't forget there is a connection brteeen Puigdemont and the Flemish nationalism. The latter is certainly hardcore...

EDIT: Now I recall a proposal made by the Basque premier Iñigo Urkullu about the people rescued from the sea. If I remember well, Urkullu said they should be distributed between EU regions using objective criteria such as population, income or regional GDP. It sounds pragmatic and common srnse, not hardcore

[Zinneke]

how accurate is this map?

[Velasco]

how accurate is this map?

It's accurate for Madrid in April 2019 elections and I guess for urban areas in the rest of Spain, excluding regions with peripheral nationalism. The map shows the Podemos stronghold of Lavapies (old town, gentrifying, labyrinthic), the PP stronghold of Salamanca (old town expansion with luxury shops), the Cs strength in upper-middle class new urban developments (PAUs in Madrid). However, the working class leftist strongholds are located south of Madrid ("cheap housing blocks"), not in the NW (the wealthy and rightwing periphery beyond Moncloa). On any case, the poorer areas vote PSOE as a general rule. Also, military and police bases are likely Vox strongholds (blocks around Museo de la Guardia Civil in Madrid, for instance)

November elections changed this map. Now the PP recovered in Cs strongholds and Vox is very strong in the south and west of the Madrid region. The far right is still stronger in wealthy areas, but it has made inroads in the southern periphery of Madrid (second in Fuenlabrada, a PSOE stronghold ). The precinct maps in media outlets are excellent and very useful

[Skye]

how accurate is this map?

Well, it was kinda accurate before, you know, C's got slaughtered everywhere.

I guess it also depends on the region. As far as I can tell, UP has weak performances in Castile and León city centres. Then again, city centres around here are full of old people, not exactly UP's constituency.

[Velasco]

Vote transfers, according to Sigma Dos

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/elecciones-generales/2019/11/14/5dcc73e0fdddff39ae8b4629.html

photo hosting

PSOE: PP 0.9, UP 2.5, Others 4.4, Abst 12.7
PP: PSOE 0.9, Cs 0.5, Vox 9.5, Others 0.6, Abst 7.9
Cs: PSOE 4.9, PP 23.9, Vox 9.4, Others 3.7, Abst 25.2
UP: PSOE 9.3, Others 10.3, Abst 10.3

Cs loses: 990k to PP, 387k to Vox, 203k to PSOE, 1 million didn't show up

Vox gains: 453k from Abst, 415k from PP, 387k from Cs, 58k from Others, 36k from PSOE

[Lumine]

Vote transfers, according to Sigma Dos

Interesting! I can see why C's would lose so many votes to PP (and it's not difficult to explain why they'd lose some to PSOE and VOX), but what is the explanation for those levels of abstention? Is it a reaction to the swings of the party, the campaign, or something else?

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

Vote transfers, according to Sigma Dos

Interesting! I can see why C's would lose so many votes to PP (and it's not difficult to explain why they'd lose some to PSOE and VOX), but what is the explanation for those levels of abstention? Is it a reaction to the swings of the party, the campaign, or something else?

The most common theory seems to be centrist and centre-left Cs voters who are disappointed at their right turn, but who also absolutely refuse to vote for PSOE, which means their only option was abstaining.

[7sergi9]

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/19/inenglish/1574153889_778519.amp.html

[mileslunn]

What are the odds of another election or do you think ERC will abstain.  Ironically had PSOE-Podemos had the deal before, they wouldn't have to rely on them and if government falls, I think a right wing one is quite possible although who knows.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So how is 20N going this year?

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

For some bizarre reason a lot of people are expecting a regional election in Catalonia soon (there have been rumours going a very long time back).

Still, given ERC's kingmaker position, here is today's poll for a regional election in Catalonia, done by NC Report / La Razón

ERC: 21% (32)
JxCat: 19% (31)
PSC: 17% (24)
Cs: 12% (17)
PP: 9% (12)
CatComú: 8% (9)
CUP: 6% (7)
Vox: 6% (3)

To be honest the number of seats they are giving Vox is extremely low for 6%, I would probably give them 5 seat with that percentage. After all PP got 4 seats on 4% of the vote in 2017.

Secessionists: 46% (70)
CatComú: 8% (9)
Unionists: 43% (56)

[Lord Halifax]

How are the negotiations going? Is it likely Sanchez will be invested on the 2nd vote?

[Velasco]

How are the negotiations going? Is it likely Sanchez will be invested on the 2nd vote?

ERC is in "no hurry". Maybe in 2020...

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/29/inenglish/1575028809_259967.html

The Catalan Republican Left (ERC), a separatist party that could be pivotal to the formation of a new government in Spain, is in “no hurry” to reach a deal with caretaker prime minister Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE), who is seeking to get confirmed in the post after winning the November 10 election.

“During our meeting they explained that they are working with a more rushed timetable, and we said that we are in no hurry,” said ERC spokeswoman Marta Vilalta on Friday, alluding to the PSOE’s desire to get a government up and running before Christmas (...) 

[PSOL]

In other news, refugee housing center “singled out” by Vox targeted with a grenade